Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – April 27th, 2022

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, welcome to this week’s chat!

Nate: It’s still April for Kelenic and Brendan Rodgers, right? Lol

Paul Sporer: It is, but I understand moving on in shallower formats

Jason: Hi Paul, thanks for doing this! Couple questions.

Jason: Has Nick Pratto been surpassed by Vinnie P as KC next 1B?

Paul Sporer: For the short-term, I think so. Was just discussing it on my stream this morning bc we were looking at Santana’s struggles. Vinnie Pasquantino is raking while Pratto hasn’t been so I think he’d get the first call

Paul Snorer: How much longer until we can worry about Joey Votto? Swinging strike rate is through the roof (relatively, for him), although it’s still early, it’s not great!

Paul Sporer: hey wait, is your name making fun of me?!

Paul Sporer: I think he can be cut in 10s and 12s if there is a 1B you’re eyeing

Mary: You worried about Josh Donaldson?

Paul Sporer: A smidge, but not enough to cut in deeper formats. In shallower leagues, I’m OK moving on. The thing is in shallower formats like 10s and 12s, the talent clusters are such that you don’t really have to wait out all the slow starters. You obviously wanna make sure you’re not chasing the hot hand all the time and you never get good stats, but I’m sure there are multiple viable 3Bs worth picking up for Donaldson

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Is Paddack good? At least for deep leagues?

Paul Sporer: Still a streamer for me. He’s kept the ball in the park so far this year which has kept the ERA down, but even still it’s 3.68 and the HR suppression won’t last forever. You can elevate to team streamer for now, but keep a close eye on him

Andrew Vaughn: Do you think I can be top 100 this year?

Paul Sporer: You can, yes. I’m a big Vaughn fan and the Eloy injury ensures his full-time role (though he was playing pretty much full time anyway)

Erik: Tommy Edman is off to a hot start, and it’s come with a suddenly above-average barrel rate (8.7%). But it’s also come with a very low hard-hit rate (26.1%). Are you thinking of him any differently than how you did in March?

Paul Sporer: I thought his spring training lineup spot was an overreaction (he was hitting 8th/9th) and dropped the price too much. Now Carlson is struggling & Edman is back up atop the order. I’ve always liked him and stayed interested due to the speed component. I still see him as a low double-digit pwr source w/25+ SBs

matt: Hi Paul, thanks for these chats! I’ve got Taylor Ward on the wire — is it worth dropping any of kwan / k marte / a vaughn for him?

Paul Sporer: I prefer Ward to Kwan

Farmer Ted (not actually a farmer): When you talk about “a 12 team league”, how many roster spots / total rostered players does this usually mean to you?

Paul Sporer: Generally assuming a “standard” setup which is usually 2C, 1B, 3B, CI, 2B, SS, MI, 5 OF, UT and 9 P. But this is why I always need league setup when asking Qs because roster setup and rules are so important to answering anything

Mickey Rivers Cuomo: What happened to deep league reliever rock Chad Green?

Paul Sporer: RPs are SO volatile that it’s hard to ever really call any of em a rock, but Green’s HR rate has always been a sword of Damocles that is really getting him early, espec. when paired with a .360 BABIP and 12.3 H/9

CT: Hey Paul, thanks as always for the chat. Before his suspension, Ramon Laureano was flirting with a possible 20/20 season. With him due back shortly, do you think we see the same production and if so, is he viable in 12s? And I guess to go further, do you still see him ranked around 100 in your OF rankings, or does he move up significantly now that he’s back?

Paul Sporer: Definitely like him in 12s and even 10s with 5 OF because of that speed. He was only ranked so low bc of the guaranteed missed month so I wasn’t drafting him bc I didn’t want to deal w/the headache. But now that’s almost back, he will move up my OF rankings quite a bit. (I should have positional ranking updates out in the first week or two of May, but after that it’ll just be pitchers every month)

Matt: Thoughts on Luis Campusano?

Paul Sporer: Need a bit more than that. In what capacity? for what league type?

Maris: Just traded for Jesus Sanchez after losing Eddie Rosario. Your opinion of him ROS? Thanks. I see a lot of upside.

Paul Sporer: Agree on the upside. I really think he’s got 30 HR upside. He is somewhat comparable to teammate Soler in terms of hitting profile. His plate skills will breed volatility, but the power is absolutely legit

Nittanychris: Will the Red Sox make some call-ups in May to address their offensive woes. If so, who comes first, Duran or Casas?

Paul Sporer: I’m a big Casas fan and not so keen on Dalbec so I lean there, but JBJ’s glove might not be enough to keep him in the lineup if Duran keeps raking in AAA

Lance: I know you are not an injury guy per se, but have you heard any whispers that Heaney is supposed to have a shoulder arthroscopy?

Paul Sporer: They aren’t going to rush things and he hasn’t even picked up a ball yet so it’s not looking great. Keep him on the IL where you can, but if you’ve got multiple injuries already taking up your IL spots, Heaney is a cut

Mickey Rivers Cuomo: Who’s the Boston reliever to own in two weeks?

Paul Sporer: Garrett Whitlock!

Salty: Any truth you moved Spencer Strider up in your ranks due to that killer ‘stache on his (formerly) Rotoworld page?  And would you rather see him as a starter or Yarborough-style reliever?

Paul Sporer: Completely true! Same reason I am a Miles Mikolas fan, lol!! I always prefer these guys in Yarbrough-style roles because it gives them a MUUUUCH better chance to garner some wins

Mickey Rivers Cuomo: Blackburn or Zimmerman?

Paul Sporer: Blackburn – velo up 2 mph, secondaries looking strong.

Pedro: Thoughts about Grandal?  Any cause for concern?  Thx

Paul Sporer: Brutal start, but he can turn that around in a week with the hot streaks he can go on. I’m still holding for now, even in 1-catcher leagues

Farmer Ted (not actually a farmer): (following up). I.e what is the range of total rostered players when you are talking about  “a shallow league “

Paul Sporer: Around 250 or so in 10-teamers including reserves

KG: Dylan Carlson worth holding onto?  His statcast page is atrocious.  And despite decent stats last year doesn’t look too hot then either.  But man.  1st-3rd percentile in a bunch of stuff.

Paul Sporer: Shallow league cut if you’re targeting someone on the wire, but I’m holding out in 15s or deeper right now.

Mooseknuckle Curve: On the topic of Votto and your answer, this is my current suffering as I drafted Voltto and Voit back to back around rounds 12 and 13 to cover my 1st base options.  I have tinkered with a Rowdy Tellez/Ji-Man combo but two platoon players are rough on the bench.  I dropped Rowdy to grab Josh Naylor and I have Triston Casas brewing in my NA spot.  Out of those options, do you like any ROS?

Paul Sporer: Big Tellez and Naylor fan! Tellez shouldn’t even be platooned, tbh, but I get it since they have Brosseau. He’s (Tellez) pretty good vL, though

G: Bieber is continuing to put up solid stat lines in spite of his diminished stuff and giving up solid contact. Obvious play seems to be to sell on him before his results catch up to the change in his stuff, or is he the type who can succeed with a 90 MPH FB?

Paul Sporer: I think he can succeed. I’ve watched virtually all of his innings this season and I haven’t really understood the panic. I get why ppl were panicked in draft season bc of the shoulder – I was, too, and took a pass on him bc I just didn’t have a good read on things – but he’s been great so far. He was never a velo god before and his HardHit rate is actually the lowest since ’18, so I think the panic was overblown. At some point, the skills and results have to matter more than the lowered velo. Yes there is health risk, but that’s the case for literally anyone who is pitching so if I drafted him, I’d just enjoy my ace

Isaac: How long is your leash for Franmil Reyes?

Paul Sporer: Definitely depends on league size. He’s the kind of guy who turns everything around in a 10-14 day span with like 6-7 HRs. I know it’s been a common refrain so far in this chat, but I’m fine if you gotta move on in a 10 tm league and have someone good on the wire while 12s are borderline and 15s I’m definitely holding.

Beeee: Hey Paul, I noticed (late) last night that the Bullpen Report for today was posted around midnight (EST). Was that one off or is it possible to have this happen on the regular?

(being able to see it the night before the waiver claims go in is key in terms of taking advantage of picking up a RP who might scoop a save if the regular closer needs a rest…I’m in an ultra competitive (432 player universe) roto league where this kind of thing can give ya an edge because finding saves is a full-on knife fight!)

Paul Sporer: That would be one for Jason, who does excellent work with the BR! https://twitter.com/JasonRRMartinez

Derek: Who do you like better in the middle infield rest of season rest of season IKF, A Rosario, N Lopez, or Lux?  Rank in order of performance please.

Paul Sporer: I think I’d go reverse order of how you list ’em. Definitely Lux atop the list by a lot, the other 3 are close. Maybe IKF over Rosario

Mike: How should we value Taylor Ward in dynasty formats?

Paul Sporer: I’m only in 1 dynasty lg so it’s not my strongest format, but he’s a plus hitter with a full-time role atop a strong lineup.

Kyle: Why does Fangraphs say Snell has a 3.08 FIP when he hasn’t pitched at all this year? Did you manually edit that in?

Paul Sporer: lol yes i did

Erik: Why did I draft Adalberto Mondesi anywhere? Will I make that mistake next season?

Paul Sporer: I mean you’re really only hoping for 100 gms so this is part of the deal. As long as you’re comfortable w/the in & out of the lineup, there’s nothing wrong w/drafting him

FireStorm: Paul.  When are answer questions about 10 team or 12 team leagues, I assume you mean MLB and not single league.  Is there a way we can convert your conclusions about 10 team or 12 team (or more) to single league (AL or NL)?   I think about this in reference to your recent answer about Donaldson.

Paul Sporer: Yes, always mixers. AL/NL only is too rare to answer broadly including those lgs. Those are deeper than 15 team mixers so when I say 15s and deeper, that includes single lgs. This is also why lg context is important to answering questions and stuff like “thoughts about so-and-so” is kind of useless (with all due respect to those who’ve put in those Qs)

FireStorm: Time to move on from Loaisaga in a Hold + Save league?

Paul Sporer: Yes. No need to hold onto a flailing RP in SVHD since there are always throngs of options

France: Are you proud of me for selecting Ty France 146th overall before the season started?

Paul Sporer: Indeed! Big fan of him myself. He was my Hot Take for Seattle in their Roster Review wherein I said he’d hit 35 HRs. That’s obviously a bold prediction, but the point was to pump him up as a power upside candidate

Erik: Wander Franco is striking out even less than last year and has upped his barrel rate from 4.9% to 11.3%. How dumb was I to worry that a player as talented and young as him would remain as basically an empty batting average guy? 25+ homers seems easy for him at this point.

Paul Sporer: You and me both! I just thought it’d be like 18 HRs and 8 SBs with good AVG/R and decent RBIs. That’s good but didn’t feel worth a 4th rounder so I passed in all lgs but one where I got him in the 6th. He’s amazing. I thought it might be a year before the major breakout and btw, we’re not wrong yet. It still has been just a month, though obviously he looks amazing. I’ll gladly eat my L if he continues to dominate like this and enjoy him in that one league where I got him

#notapril: Ditch Heaney for Houck?

Paul Sporer: Definitely

vr: Sale for Kepler and Ward in a points league (Zips has Kepler as a top 30 OF in this format). Is this a fair trade?

Paul Sporer: I’m definitely in for this trade getting the 2 hitters

dave in slc: how do you feel about what you have seen from Torkelson so far? got him in my al only keeper and may have over paid at draft for 22 but thought he could be a stud

Paul Sporer: I’ve been pretty impressed, tbh. The K rate should come down (just a 9% SwStr, but 31% K) and you can tell he belongs. I think he will be completely fine and I’d gladly buy him anywhere he’s available

Zach: I mean this genuinely trying to learn. When you post SP rankings, or same with PitcherList, how exactly am I supposed to utilize those? They seem to change weekly so once I use it to draft, what do the updates represent? Seems like a guy can drop or rise significantly, but if I look at the list today can I say value SP15 more than SP 27 in a trade, even though next week SP27 could be bumped to SP19? I’ve been caught using then seeing the guy I acquired is now lower than the guy I traded away because of a bad start

Paul Sporer: I don’t do weekly lists so you’d have to direct that Q to Nick and he’s always happy to answer stuff during his Twitch streams.

I am the Walrus: Is Woodruff OK?  How does he fare ROS?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, is there any reason to believe otherwise? Essentially BABIP’d yesterday otherwise I don’t see any reasons for concern.

Tim: A Yarbrough role over a starter gives a pitcher a “MUCH” better chance for wins? I’d say more starters get wins than Yarbough’s

Paul Sporer: Wait, what? You literally CAN’T get a win if you don’t go 5 and the guys we’re talking about are consistently held under 5 so they have an infinitely better chance at a W in the 2018 Yarbrough role than starting games

DT: Is Lindor the way back?

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes. I was in on a bounce back coming in the year. Feel like last year was a transition season a la Beltran when he went to NYM

DT: *all the way back

TJ: Please tell me Duran is closer to being the…closer now.  Pagan shaky and I’ve been stashing Duran based on his filthiness…

Paul Sporer: I don’t think it’s set in stone but I do think he eventually gets the role. Duffey is getting used in the 6th/7th and Pagan is a HR machine

I am the Walrus: MI RP’s like Duran, Strider, Schmidt, Whitlock who give 2-3 IP twice a week and can get wins, saves and K’s and %, are they the new market inefficiency?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think so. I’m a big fan of them. Contreras is another who will eventually be back for PIT (though he could be in the SP role next time up)

96mnc: Hey Paul, how do I contact someone with feedback/suggestions for the format of the Closer Depth Chart page?

Paul Sporer: Jason Martinez on Twitter https://twitter.com/JasonRRMartinez

You Lee: Drop Votto for Yuli? Any concern about Tyler O’Neill? 12 tm 5×5 keeper. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Sure. I have some concerns. I was out on TON this year just bc I didn’t want to buy those plate skills at full price, but the interesting thing is that his plate skills have greatly improved but the results aren’t there so despite my lack of interest coming into the season, I’m kinda intrigued by these changes if they stick. Hold out w/him for now

JP: I drafted Kyle Wright with my last pick. Am I the greatest, or is all my bragging now going to look bad in a few months?

Paul Sporer: It can always go south, but I’d feel quite good rn. I copped him for $1 in the FAAB buy before the season started and feel pretty good about it!

Zach: re: the pitcher rankings, its less about week to week variance and more about how do I need to read those? Are you saying here is how I prefer the SPs and how I see them performing ROS?

Paul Sporer: I haven’t read Nick’s latest this year, but I feel like the preamble in both our rankings lay all that out in terms of identifying the value they are meant to have. When I post my in-season ones, I always outline that they are 4-6 wk rankings bc things are so volatile

Tim: Was the conversation about Whitlock him being an opener vs a Yarbrough role? The person’s question was starter vs Yarbrough role I thought?

Paul Sporer: Question was: Salty 1:30 Any truth you moved Spencer Strider up in your ranks due to that killer ‘stache on his (formerly) Rotoworld page?  And would you rather see him as a starter or Yarborough-style reliever?

Paul Sporer: so Strider types who aren’t fully stretched for 5+ IP are much better in the Yarbrough style role than starting bc they have a MUUUUUCH better shot at wins. Am I missing something in terms of the communication here? Not trying to be flippant

Jerrica Heart: I’m in a 12-team perpetual keeper league and have re-built my roster in just 3 years.

I have Varsho, Stephenson, Freeman, Belt, Chisholm, Wander, K. Hayes, Moncada, Bichette, Soto, Tucker, Robert, Yordan, Teoscar, R. Greene, Brujan, Arraez, Casas, House, Peralta, Tr. Rogers, Manoah, Skubal, R. Contreras, Clase, Iglesias, T. Rogers, and Romano.

There is no question … just a flex.

The point? Let women play in your league! =)

Love your work, Paul!

Paul Sporer: Anyone not letting women in their league is a clown. I certainly hope we don’t have anyone doing that kinda crap.

Gonso Ball: Is Tony Gonsolin ever anything more than a twice-through-the-order guy with the Dodgers? Or will they eventually stretch him out a bit further?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m a bit nervous that the control hasn’t improved at all. I was hoping it was an injury anomaly last year but it isn’t so I do think he might just be a 5-and-dive type. If he stops walking the yard, they could start stretching him back out for 6+

Webster: Is Chad Green a cut at this point in save/hold league?

Paul Sporer: Yes. Rarely a reason to hold a struggling RP in SVHD

Homer: Let the virtue signalling begin!  It’s okay for men to have a space that’s theirs you know.

Paul Sporer: LOL

Paul Sporer: It’s virtue signaling to let women play fantasy baseball? Gimme a fucking break.

Paul Sporer: Spoken like someone who makes fun of safe spaces and calls ppl snowflakes but then behaves like this if women want to play fantasy fuckin baseball, lol

RP Futures: Would you drop Diekman or Robles for R. Montero? (SV/HLD league)

Paul Sporer: I’d be OK moving either. Probably lean Diekman

Bobby: Would you be looking to sell high on Straw, or medium on Arozarena? 15-team OBP league with Acuna coming off IL. I’m concerned by Arozarena’s downward trend in power and complete lack of walks this season.

Paul Sporer: I think it’d be a sell low on Arozarena right now so I’d rather hold. Straw you can sell if you have enough speed to cover. Usually teams with him need his speed, but if you’re stocked, sell to the highest bidder!

Salty: More likely comeback this year – successful return and contribution from Dustin May or the birds re-entering your place?

Paul Sporer: LOLOLOL them birds be creepin’!

Leo: Hi Paul, how would you rank Megill, Joe Ryan, and Gore ROS in a points league?

Paul Sporer: Just like you’ve listed them!

Tim: I think the communication is messed up in that I figure the question re: Strider being a starter is asking long term as opposed to his first start (likely being under 5 innings). But maybe that was just my interpretation?

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure we necessarily get to a point where he’s firmly trusted for 5+. He had just 9 such outings in the minors last year. That said, even if we got a spot where he was consistently getting 5, he would still be in a MUCH better position to get a win pitching innings 2-6 or 3-7 than 1-5 so I’m not sure much changes with my original answer.

Jerrica’s Boyfriend: Paul, I can’t think of a better person to answer this.

What the HELL are your Tigers doing to Baddoo? Batting him 9th and sitting him vs. ALL LHP = psychological trauma. Talk about setting up a young player to fail!

What’s going on? And would you buy low on Baddoo?

Thanks!

Sincerely,

The Other Paul

Paul Sporer: It is SO maddening. He was leading off all spring and raking and now he’s persona non grata?! (i think I’m using the phrase properly, but maybe not). He’s also sputtering so it probably makes Hinch feel justified. I would still buy low, particularly in 15s or deeper, but I totally understand if you’re cutting in 10s and 12s right now. If you do, make sure to watchlist him so you can pounce once he’s gets going, but it’s been super frustrating for someone I absolutely loved coming into the year… and not just bc I’ll take a fat L if he flops, but also bc it’s my favorite team

Donnie: Better rest of season value – Cooper Hummel, Luis Campusano or James Mcann?

Paul Sporer: I like Hummel, but he’s on the short side of the platoon rn which is tough to roster in anything but super deep formats. So I’d go McCann over him and maybe even Campy with him getting some DH burn

Webster: Should we expect Ketel Marte to come around?

Paul Sporer: I think so, though the elevated K% and corresponding SwStr jump are somewhat alarming. It’s not actionable (meaning I’m not cutting or benching him right now), but I’m keeping a close eye on it

EldridgeCleaver: Who do you like better, Pham or Laureano?

Paul Sporer: Laureano

Homer: Safe spaces deserve to be made fun of you overgrown child

Paul Sporer: He says as he begs for one in fantasy baseball. Do you not realize how you’re dunking on yourself? I almost feel bad making you look this ridiculous.

Paul Sporer: Literally you 10 minutes ago, big dog: Homer 2:16 Let the virtue signalling begin!  It’s okay for men to have a space that’s theirs you know.

Paul Sporer: so you want a space wherein you feel safe from the scawy wimminz

Oliver: Is Alex Kirilloff still worth stashing in a 10 team league?

Paul Sporer: Mehhh. I worry about the wrist and without pop, he’s quite pedestrian in a 10

Ty France: Breakout fantasy (and also real life) player of the year?

Paul Sporer: He certainly could be. I’m a huge fan. Could be a .300-25 season coming

Homer: Are you serious?  There’s nothing inherently wrong about men wanting to start league that allows men.  I’m sure then you think space for women, people of color, and any other group is wrong as well?

Paul Sporer: So you want a safe space, but they also deserve to be made fun of? Got it!

Nelson Cruz: Am I cuttable in a standard 12 team roto? Or should I try to hold a few more weeks?

Paul Sporer: I’m holding a bit longer as the plate skills are fine and his .192 BABIP should regress

Webster: Do you think Kyle Farmer will be supplanted by Jose Barrero?

Paul Sporer: I certainly think he should. I was sooo bummed when Barrero got hurt

Tom: How would you rank Eugenio, LeMahieu, and Hayes as 3B options in a points league?

Paul Sporer: DJLM, Hayes, Eugenio

Jeff: Think Cedric Mullins and Ketel Marte can shake off their slow starts?

Paul Sporer: Included this for Mullins since I just had one about Marte. I’m not worried about Ced at all. .261 BABIP will come up and he’s pacing for 20 HR/30 SB otherwise

Dr. Brown: Anyone who’s ever played softball knows … men/women leagues are better! The same goes for fantasy baseball leagues. Having members with enthusiasm is #1.

Paul, Reid Detmers has been dropped a few times in my 12-team dynasty league. We have long benches. Is he worth holding for a bit? What’s his ceiling?

Thank you, as always!

Paul Sporer: LOL, right? Like it’s fine if your league is all men, but explicitly banning women for absolutely no reason is some weird shit. It’s not virtue signaling to just not be a weirdo for no damn reason. And yes, I’d hold Detmers a bit longer. I really like him and think there is still plenty of upside this year

Calvin: Can Andres Munoz be a closer this year? Thank you for the great chats

Paul Sporer: Yes he definitely can, but that is a crowded ‘pen so he might not be given the job outright at any point soon

Everyone: Don’t engage with that clown Homer

Paul Sporer: You’re right, you’re right. But sometimes some super dumb shit just needs to be shutdown, but yes you are right.

#notapril: Bro… you gotta check that E. Suarez xstats and k%. He’s back

Paul Sporer: I was looking at him this morning, but yes I’m underrating him. The bottom line is those 3 3B – Hayes, DJLM, and Suarez – are super close, but I’ll re-rank with Suarez jumping Hayes and going: DJLM, Suarez, Hayes

Matt: How much do you value early season team stats vs. what you expected for offenses coming into the season when trying to decide which teams to sit pitchers against?

Paul Sporer: About 90% preseason/10% current stats and then that stats % rises slowly as the sample gets bigger

Calvin: Anything to be worried about with Justin Turner’s slow start?

Paul Sporer: sorry got a phone call, Justin Turner wasn’t tripping me up that much lol

Paul Sporer: I’m not too worried. Feels like a standard slow start that could be turned around with a hot week. Sit tight for now

Daniel: Will Jorge Mateo keep his job all year … and be top 5 in SBs?

Paul Sporer: Not at this pace, no. Baltimore isn’t teeming with options, but it’s not hard to find someone better than a 69 wRC+ (not nice in this instance). He just Ks ways too much to be anything close to a consistent bat.

Sean: Is winker a must roster in 10s?

Paul Sporer: No, nor in 12s, tbh. He was a fade for me post-trade and while he is definitely than this current line, I think he’s pretty pedestrian outside of Cincy

Guest: Logan Gilbert  top 5 Cy Young candidate at the end of the year?

Paul Sporer: He can be, yes

Martin: Kwan for E. Suarez in an OPS 6×6 league? Who would you rather have?

Paul Sporer: Suarez

#notapril: Intentional walks shouldn’t count against a pitcher’s star line: true or false?

Paul Sporer: True! Though their impact is usually quite negligible

Connor Joe Mama: Other than K% (informed by swstr%) what hitter metrics do you believe in at this stage of the season?

Paul Sporer: There isn’t much to fully believe at this juncture as even the K rates aren’t 100% locked in. But I do also look at walk rates, power output, and batted ball profiles

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!