Outfielder ADP Market Report: 3/3/21

March 4, 2021

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

Top 100 Players Rising

George Springer (+6.89)- Springer’s rise in ADP is tied to his signing in Toronto. He is expected to lead off for the Blue Jays in front of a young, power packed lineup. With the Blue Jays playing in Dunedin and Buffalo, he has great park factors as well. I was able to grab Springer in the fourth round in TGFBI and was pretty stoked to do so.

Top 100 Players Falling

Trent Grisham (-11.63)- Grisham is falling as fear of him platooning or dropping in the lineup against right handers lowers his ceiling. Grisham was great in 2020, hitting 10 home runs and stealing 10 bases with a .251 batting average. His work versus lefties was buoyed by a .370 BABIP, which is concerning. If he can stay on top of the lineup, he could be a monster, but there is risk here at a price where you can’t really afford to miss.

Top 200 Players Rising

Eddie Rosario (+20.48)- Rosario is rising after signing a deal in Cleveland. With the state of the Cleveland outfield, he is guaranteed full playing time. He appears to be an underrated as a power hitter that doesn’t hurt you in batting average. However, he got lucky last year in both average and homers and without even league average exit velocity or barrel percentage, a deadened ball could hurt him more than others.

Kyle Schwarber (+12.35)- Schwarber is coming off of a disappointing season where he hit just .188/.308/.393 with 11 home runs. However, his BABIP was .219 which was way below his career BABIP of .267. His exit velocity was in the 95th percentile, his hard hit percentage was in the 86th percentile and his barrel percentage was in the 75th percentile. He should bounceback in the middle of a good lineup in Washington.

Top 200 Players Falling

Dylan Moore (-17.31)- See the article in this series on second basemen.

Dominic Smith (-27.58)- See the article in this series on first basemen.

Kyle Lewis (-13)- Lewis is dropping over concerns about how he finished the season. He hit .368 with seven home runs in the first half and a paltry .150 with four home runs in the second half. Lewis is a former top prospect with good power and speed, but also a long track record of injuries which adds to the risk. With the outfield being so deep, it’s hard to take that gamble even with the price dropping.

Victor Reyes (-19.42)- Reyes is dropping due to playing time concerns after the signings of Jonathan Schoop, Renato Nunez, Nomar Mazara and Robbie Grossman has pushed him to the bench. He should still be on the short side of the platoon and he has enough pop to play with a good hit tool and speed, but he needs an injury to make a real impact. He is worth rostering in a draft and hold or leagues with larger benches where stashing makes sense.

Top 300 Players Rising

Ramiel Tapia (+46.01)- Tapia is rising up the ADP in large part because he offers three categories that are the hardest to come by in runs, stolen bases and average. He is expected to lead off for the Rockies and with guys like Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon hitting behind him, he should rack up the runs. He is a former top prospect and now that he is a bit older, maybe the Rockies won’t play games with his playing time. His price is still pretty good and he is worth it.

Mitch Haniger (+23.25)- I love Mitch Haniger, but the guy can not stay healthy. If he was able to stay on the field, he would likely be a lock for 25/10 and maybe more, but at this point it is really hard to trust. Even with the rise, he is still very affordable, but if the price continues to rise, he won’t be worth the risk.

Joc Pederson (+79.9)- Pederson is rising after signing in Chicago. He is expected to at least be a strong side platoon outfielder with the Cubs and hit in the middle of what is still a pretty good lineup in Chicago. His upside is somewhat capped due to his struggles against lefties, but there is a chance the Cubs let him steal more than the Dodgers did in spite of the fact he does not have a great success rate over the course of his career. I still have a soft spot for Pederson, but it’s not likely he has a huge season.

Avisail Garcia (+20.6)- Garcia was rising because he was an underrated asset with full time playing time. However, as I was writing this piece, the Brewers signed Jackie Bradley Jr. which will put Garcia on the short side of a platoon at best. We can now ignore his rise because he is bound to fall again.

Top 300 Players Falling

Randal Grichuk (-49.52)- Grichuk is falling due to playtime concerns after the signing of George Springer. Girchuk looks to be on the short side of a platoon with Rowdy Tellez. With the Blue Jays being very right handed, Grichuk needs an injury or a trade to open up playing time in order for him to get enough playing time to make a major impact for fantasy owners, but if he does, he would be joining one of the most stacked offenses in baseball with a lot of upside.

J.D. Davis (-24.73)- Davis was a popular sleeper coming into 2020 but he disappointed and now with roster crunch and his inability to play defense, he could find himself sitting more than he did last season. There is power in the bat, but the drop in price is reflective of the concerns that are present with him.

Jurickson Profar (-47.22)- Profar is dropping after resigning to a stacked Padres team where playing time may be a big concern. With the DH looking like it is not happening this year, Profar is on the outside looking in for playing time which is weird considering they gave him a two-year deal worth $15 million. He needs an injury to break into this lineup full time and probably should be avoided for now.

Outfielder ADP Market Report: 3/3/21

1/26/21-3/3/21	Player	Team	Position(s)	10/1/20-10/31/20	11/1/20-11/30/20	12/1/20-1/25/21	Change
2.03	Ronald Acuna Jr.	ATL	OF	1.75	1.52	1.48	-0.55
4.05	Juan Soto	WAS	OF	4.25	4.63	4.42	0.37
4.62	Mookie Betts	LAD	OF	4	2.89	3.33	-1.29
7.32	Mike Trout	LAA	OF	5.5	5.41	6.96	-0.36
12.27	Christian Yelich	MLW	OF	11	11.33	12.21	-0.06
17.51	Cody Bellinger	LAD	1B, OF	16	14.52	15.54	-1.97
19.79	Bryce Harper	PHI	OF	19.75	20.52	21.06	1.27
29.17	Kyle Tucker	HOU	OF	29	32.74	27.35	-1.82
34.27	Luis Robert	CWS	OF	36.25	34.26	32.58	-1.69
36.94	Eloy Jimenez	CWS	OF	44.5	40.04	38.88	1.94
39.13	Whit Merrifield	KC	2B, OF	47.5	42.26	38.73	-0.4
46.44	Starling Marte	MIA	OF	54.5	50.74	47.17	0.73
49.67	George Springer	HOU	OF	61	60.15	56.56	6.89
50.67	Marcell Ozuna	ATL	OF	42.25	45	49.63	-1.04
53.68	Randy Arozarena	TB	OF	61	56.19	58.5	4.82
64.02	Cavan Biggio	TOR	2B, 3B, OF	57	55.41	57.04	-6.98
64.98	Aaron Judge	NYY	OF	51.25	53.89	63.83	-1.15
65.9	Trent Grisham	SD	OF	56.25	58.85	54.27	-11.63
73.38	Brandon Lowe	TB	2B, OF	81	70.78	72.5	-0.88
74.22	Michael Conforto	NYM	OF	82	79.52	79.98	5.76
82.95	Nick Castellanos	CIN	OF	79.75	83.44	89.02	6.07
83.44	Teoscar Hernandez	TOR	OF	71.75	66.63	74.58	-8.86
89.32	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	TOR	OF	100.5	92.26	81.46	-7.86
89.76	Jeff McNeil	NYM	2B, 3B, OF	109.25	97.7	94.44	4.68
95.81	Austin Meadows	TB	OF	89.25	88.93	94.79	-1.02
99.87	Charlie Blackmon	COL	OF	91.75	93.67	101.29	1.42
104.46	Eddie Rosario	MIN	OF	122.25	112.81	124.94	20.48
109.78	Byron Buxton	MIN	OF	132.25	120.67	108.79	-0.99
126	Tommy Edman	STL	2B, 3B, SS, OF	133.75	145.04	126.35	0.35
127.41	Dylan Moore	SEA	2B, OF	136	113.11	110.1	-17.31
127.7	Tommy Pham	SD	OF	109.75	117.04	117.29	-10.41
129.83	Alex Verdugo	BOS	OF	129.25	125.96	124.35	-5.48
135.78	Wil Myers	SD	OF	123.75	124.41	135	-0.78
136.75	Dominic Smith	NYM	1B, OF	99	87.81	109.17	-27.58
138.27	Ramon Laureano	OAK	OF	132.25	144.22	137.38	-0.89
142.83	Victor Robles	WAS	OF	149.25	162.85	147.54	4.71
142.98	Dylan Carlson	STL	OF	143.75	141.56	132.17	-10.81
146.02	Michael Brantley	HOU	OF	160	163.52	155.96	9.94
146.67	Kyle Lewis	SEA	OF	108.75	106.26	133.67	-13
148.06	Mike Yastrzemski	SF	OF	120.5	130.59	142.96	-5.1
153.29	Jorge Soler	KC	OF	149.25	150.07	154.94	1.65
155.78	Anthony Santander	BAL	OF	168	164.26	158.69	2.91
162.46	Daulton Varsho	ARZ	C, OF	211	183.74	150.58	-11.88
163.92	Nick Solak	TEX	2B, OF	178.25	175.07	159.23	-4.69
164.98	Ian Happ	CHC	OF	160.75	165.56	163.04	-1.94
170.17	Ryan Mountcastle	BAL	1B, OF	149	138.3	158.6	-11.57
173.94	Joey Gallo	TEX	OF	179.5	165.7	171.67	-2.27
176.84	Leody Taveras	TEX	OF	229	228.26	179.81	2.97
183.79	Clint Frazier	NYY	OF	168.25	173.78	190.58	6.79
187.44	Kyle Schwarber	CHC	OF	199.25	193.89	199.79	12.35
189.75	Trey Mancini	BAL	1B, OF	224.25	200.63	194.13	4.38
195.3	Andrew McCutchen	PHI	OF	211.25	208.07	200.33	5.03
196.52	Victor Reyes	DET	OF	204.25	197.85	177.1	-19.42
196.75	Max Kepler	MIN	OF	191.75	179.89	194.63	-2.12
200.73	AJ Pollock	LAD	OF	232.75	209.59	218.96	18.23
214.63	Jesse Winker	CIN	OF	205.75	204.52	220.35	5.72
222.73	Chris Taylor	LAD	2B, SS, OF	250	232	230.02	7.29
223.27	Jarred Kelenic	SEA	OF	199.25	203.89	224.46	1.19
228	Andrew Benintendi	BOS	OF	211.5	225.33	236.38	8.38
231.68	Raimel Tapia	COL	OF	283	298.93	252.92	21.24
232.52	Austin Hays	BAL	OF	228.5	235	219.08	-13.44
235.97	Lorenzo Cain	MLW	OF	262.75	239.07	235.21	-0.76
236.65	Randal Grichuk	TOR	OF	190.25	191.59	187.13	-49.52
238.46	Hunter Dozier	KC	1B, OF	232.75	241.56	234.29	-4.17
244.98	J.D. Davis	NYM	3B, OF	207.25	210.48	220.25	-24.73
245.4	Manuel Margot	TB	OF	287	251.15	250.31	4.91
252.62	Jurickson Profar	SD	2B, OF	194.75	207.48	205.4	-47.22
254.19	Garrett Hampson	COL	2B, OF	260.25	264.3	272.94	18.75
254.56	Jon Berti	MIA	2B, OF	249	248.15	241.44	-13.12
264.95	Kole Calhoun	ARZ	OF	262.75	264.93	267.92	2.97
265.24	Nick Senzel	CIN	OF	261.75	255	268.44	3.2
265.86	Alex Kirilloff	MIN	OF	294.25	319.48	275.08	9.22
266.17	Mark Canha	OAK	OF	275.75	278.74	275.02	8.85
271.19	Mitch Haniger	SEA	OF	325.25	297.56	294.44	23.25
271.29	Brandon Nimmo	NYM	OF	269.75	249.59	265.73	-5.56
273.57	Aaron Hicks	NYY	OF	286.75	280.93	274.48	0.91
273.86	David Peralta	ARZ	OF	320.75	277.22	273.02	-0.84
278.06	Mauricio Dubon	SF	2B, SS, OF	347.5	311.37	282.9	4.84
283.14	Bryan Reynolds	PIT	OF	307.5	299.52	269.77	-13.37
284.79	Joc Pederson	CHC	OF	408	408.59	364.69	79.9
297.11	Avisail Garcia	MLW	OF	378.5	355.22	317.71	20.6
308.54	Scott Kingery	PHI	2B, OF	271	334.7	279.25	-29.29
314.16	Yasiel Puig	ATL	OF	287	254.48	239.48	-74.68
314.33	Alex Dickerson	SF	OF	395.25	352.74	328.38	14.05
317.06	Justin Upton	LAA	OF	425.75	413.41	326.81	9.75
323.05	David Dahl	COL	OF	271.25	307.67	303.44	-19.61
328.13	Sam Hilliard	COL	OF	414.75	408.11	352.54	24.41
328.9	Corey Dickerson	MIA	OF	364	356.56	333.04	4.14
333.97	Adam Eaton	WAS	OF	365.75	436.37	330.79	-3.18
338.08	Willie Calhoun	TEX	OF	314.5	309.22	330.35	-7.73
344.49	Franchy Cordero	KC	OF	396.25	415.63	365.33	20.84
347.4	Jackie Bradley Jr.	BOS	OF	386.75	365.74	341.31	-6.09
348.13	Oscar Mercado	CLE	OF	360.25	370.11	367.1	18.97
351.87	Robbie Grossman	OAK	OF	378.5	437.15	412.83	60.96
352.67	Myles Straw	HOU	OF	487.25	497.67	463.75	111.08
359.38	Josh Naylor	CLE	OF	421.25	426.3	368.19	8.81
359.49	Adam Duvall	ATL	OF	316	319.52	392.83	33.34
361.59	Hunter Renfroe	TB	OF	505.25	521.74	387.19	25.6
372.51	Kike Hernandez	LAD	2B, OF	560.5	547.26	472.25	99.74
382.59	Harrison Bader	STL	OF	467.5	512.37	427.85	45.26
383.11	Cristian Pache	ATL	OF	383	373.85	383.4	0.29
385.24	Kevin Pillar	COL	OF	287.5	344.44	325.04	-60.2
388.32	JaCoby Jones	DET	OF	362.75	399.74	385.35	-2.97
393.9	Shogo Akiyama	CIN	OF	368.5	389.19	390.48	-3.42
396.73	Tyler O’Neill	STL	OF	494.75	482.04	449.54	52.81
403.41	Jason Heyward	CHC	OF	442	435.59	413.85	10.44
403.44	Jo Adell	LAA	OF	245.25	269.3	346.71	-56.73
410.3	Gregory Polanco	PIT	OF	428	431.59	390.56	-19.74
413.33	Austin Slater	SF	OF	361.75	338.59	351.15	-62.18
413.63	Stephen Piscotty	OAK	OF	474	478.7	435.08	21.45
429.25	Cedric Mullins	BAL	OF	315.25	389.11	410.35	-18.9
431.54	Michael Chavis	BOS	1B, 2B, OF	372	389.37	382.96	-48.58
433.21	Adam Frazier	PIT	2B, OF	498.75	498.81	447.44	14.23
436.35	Marwin Gonzalez	MIN	1B, 2B, 3B, OF	471.75	478.33	472.15	35.8
437.79	Kevin Kiermaier	TB	OF	421.25	482.11	441.9	4.11
447.83	Yoshi Tsutsugo	TB	3B, OF	471	503.33	466.31	18.48
451.25	Edward Olivares	KC	OF	420	468.78	439.85	-11.4
459.49	Roman Quinn	PHI	OF	422	486.48	436.73	-22.76
478.81	DJ Stewart	BAL	OF	528.25	525.22	478.31	-0.5
482.76	Nomar Mazara	DET	OF	458.25	495.11	500.13	17.37
485.13	Jared Oliva	PIT	OF	433.5	476.26	470.71	-14.42
497.05	Michael A. Taylor	WAS	OF	659.5	731.67	527.88	30.83
503.62	Tim Locastro	ARZ	OF	610.25	602.74	530.15	26.53
509.87	Miguel Andujar	NYY	OF	422.75	470.56	464.38	-45.49
516	Andrew Stevenson	WAS	OF	438.75	435.11	429.92	-86.08
529.63	Dexter Fowler	STL	OF	670.25	702.78	624.71	95.08
534.75	Anthony Alford	PIT	OF	686.25	715.15	631.02	96.27
535.24	Shin-Soo Choo	TEX	OF	452.5	459.56	488.33	-46.91
549.11	Brandon Marsh	LAA	OF	526.75	598.89	538	-11.11
550.14	Mike Tauchman	NYY	OF	502.25	572.11	520.85	-29.29
557.65	Brett Gardner	NYY	OF	585.25	634.59	616.06	58.41
571.44	Aristides Aquino	CIN	OF	554.25	577.15	564.08	-7.36
581.56	Lewis Brinson	MIA	OF	512	588.3	532.75	-48.81
584.13	Jarren Duran	BOS	OF	573	631.48	655.27	71.14
587.81	Ian Desmond	COL	OF	598.5	613.59	575	-12.81
590.19	Jake Bauers	CLE	1B, OF	739.75	728.74	595.31	5.12
601.08	Dee Strange-Gordon	SEA	2B, OF	743.25	717.52	723.44	122.36
605.95	Daniel Johnson	CLE	OF	NA	735.37	628.13	22.18
612.22	Brent Rooker	MIN	OF	632.25	685.3	614.31	2.09
614.94	Lane Thomas	STL	OF	661	677.59	624.75	9.81
615.52	Cole Tucker	PIT	OF	606.25	683.85	631.69	16.17
615.65	Julio Rodriguez	SEA	OF	463.25	550.96	607.56	-8.09
619.22	Ender Inciarte	ATL	OF	695.5	714.7	643.1	23.88
624.6	Monte Harrison	MIA	OF	491.5	593.59	595.63	-28.97
626.57	Adam Engel	CWS	OF	740.25	722.04	659.56	32.99
639.76	Brian Goodwin	CIN	OF	710.75	687.33	693.19	53.43
641.71	Drew Waters	ATL	OF	642	649.44	598.54	-43.17
644.54	Adam Haseley	PHI	OF	715.5	688.56	648.46	3.92
645.86	Jake Cave	MIN	OF	NA	738.93	685.52	39.66
658.81	Josh Lowe	TB	OF	620	629.33	651.13	-7.68
661.97	Jake Fraley	SEA	OF	584.75	653.78	643.08	-18.89
662.29	Bradley Zimmer	CLE	OF	745	747.93	640.94	-21.35
664.75	Trevor Larnach	MIN	OF	NA	706.63	670.17	5.42
674.92	Jose Marmolejos	SEA	OF	664.25	711.33	715.42	40.5
681.68	Jay Bruce	PHI	OF	732	741.44	745.33	63.65
684.76	Magneuris Sierra	MIA	OF	642.75	669.74	668	-16.76
695.1	Delino DeShields	CLE	OF	650	658.7	725.77	30.67
696.48	Taylor Ward	LAA	OF	703.75	705.11	651.58	-44.9
700.86	Josh Reddick	HOU	OF	573	636.63	675.42	-25.44
701.49	Taylor Trammell	SEA	OF	668.25	661.22	685.19	-16.3
702.76	Mallex Smith	SEA	OF	657	652.44	662.31	-40.45
705.7	JJ Bleday	MIA	OF	736.75	710.15	695.56	-10.14
707.65	Ryan Braun	MLW	OF	514.75	607.07	585.23	-122.42
709.56	Darin Ruf	SF	OF	683.75	715.37	709.94	0.38
714.25	Daz Cameron	DET	OF	659.5	688.85	674.35	-39.9
716.25	Derek Fisher	TOR	OF	745.25	750.89	738.35	22.1
722.11	Pedro Leon	FA	OF	NA	NA	740.44	18.33
725.79	Sam Haggerty	SEA	OF	533.25	640.15	674.1	-51.69
727.86	Khalil Lee	KC	OF	742.75	728.63	696.58	-31.28
728.56	Jake Marisnick	NYM	OF	747.75	750	750.67	22.11
728.7	Steven Souza Jr.	CHC	OF	NA	NA	NA	NA
729.51	Yoelkis Cespedes	CWS	OF	745.9	NA	745.9	16.39
730.71	Odubel Herrera	PHI	OF	NA	NA	NA	NA
733.14	Harold Castro	DET	OF	713.75	682.89	724.52	-8.62
733.78	Jordan Luplow	CLE	OF	NA	NA	748.63	14.85
735.98	Albert Almora Jr.	CHC	OF	743.75	NA	750.52	14.54
736.02	Braden Bishop	SEA	OF	NA	NA	750.96	14.94
737.3	Tim Lopes	MLW	OF	NA	NA	NA	NA
737.49	Christin Stewart	DET	OF	NA	731.04	715.02	-22.47
737.63	Tim Lopes	SEA	OF	665.75	714.85	720.1	-17.53
738.37	Yairo Munoz	BOS	OF	597	670.48	710.58	-27.79
739.21	Tyler Naquin	CLE	OF	681.25	662.89	708.21	-31
740.44	Brock Holt	WAS	3B, OF	NA	748.96	NA	NA
741.67	Heliot Ramos	SF	OF	687	736.52	745.5	3.83
741.84	Jesus Sanchez	MIA	OF	750	732.11	728.48	-13.36
742.19	Jorge Mateo	SD	OF	727.25	728.78	735.1	-7.09
744.33	Nick Markakis	ATL	OF	722	721.89	741.5	-2.83
744.54	Greg Allen	SD	OF	747.25	749.78	744.4	-0.14
745.13	Brian O’Grady	SD	OF	NA	NA	741.27	-3.86
745.21	Travis Swaggerty	PIT	OF	NA	NA	NA	NA
745.46	Oscar Colas	FA	OF	NA	NA	724.98	-20.48
745.57	Jaylin Davis	SF	OF	NA	743.7	743.29	-2.28
745.76	Cameron Maybin	CHC	OF	749.25	745.63	748.63	2.87
745.95	Na Sung-bum	FA	OF	NA	695.63	643.79	-102.16
746.14	Nick Heath	KC	OF	NA	NA	NA	NA
746.35	Brett Phillips	TB	OF	727.5	748.85	746.04	-0.31
746.37	Yonathan Daza	COL	OF	NA	NA	NA	NA
747.65	Travis Jankowski	CIN	OF	NA	NA	NA	NA
748.32	Andrew Velazquez	BAL	SS, OF	NA	NA	NA	NA
748.44	Harold Ramirez	CLE	OF	NA	NA	NA	NA
748.71	Billy Hamilton	CHC	OF	723.5	749.59	750.25	1.54
749.16	Kristian Robinson	ARZ	OF	714	741.33	NA	NA
749.29	Riley Greene	DET	OF	746	744.74	748.71	-0.58
749.38	Matt Joyce	MIA	OF	NA	749.96	NA	NA
749.81	Tyrone Taylor	MLW	OF	667.5	738.7	743.42	-6.39
749.89	Jose Osuna	PIT	1B, OF	733.25	741.93	749.52	-0.37
750.13	Jarrod Dyson	CWS	OF	742	749.41	NA	NA
750.52	Trevor Larnach	MIN	OF	NA	NA	NA	NA
750.54	Eli White	TEX	OF	NA	741.93	747.33	-3.21
750.73	Domingo Santana	CLE	OF	597.75	676.93	743.21	-7.52
750.73	Mark Mathias	MLW	OF	NA	NA	750.48	-0.25
750.83	Phillip Ervin	SEA	OF	NA	748.74	747.83	-3
750.95	Travis Demeritte	ATL	OF	NA	NA	NA	NA
750.98	Mickey Moniak	PHI	OF	744.75	747.74	748.73	-2.25
NA	Estevan Florial	NYY	OF	NA	744.07	747.56	NA
NA	Haruki Nishikawa	FA	OF	NA	NA	722.56	NA
NA	Hunter Bishop	SF	OF	720.75	NA	NA	NA
NA	Jonathan Davis	TOR	OF	733.25	747.89	747.44	NA
NA	Jorge Bonifacio	DET	OF	724.75	750	749.44	NA
NA	Phil Gosselin	PHI	1B, OF	NA	749.44	NA	NA
NA	Rusney Castillo	BOS	OF	726.75	704.74	743.67	NA
NA	Seth Beer	ARZ	OF	603.5	613.15	NA	NA
NA	Victor Victor Mesa	MIA	OF	747.5	747.74	NA	NA

SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball

NFBC ADP from Draft Champions leagues from 1/26/21-3/3/21