Outfield ADP Market Report: 2/8/22

by
February 14, 2022

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

Top 100 Players Rising

Yordan Alvarez (+5.65)- It is a bit surprising to see Alvarez rising, not because he isn’t worth it, but because typically hitters without speed tend to drop as stolen bases assets and pitchers rise. Alvarez is coming off of a great season in which he hit 33 home runs with a .271 average in just 144 games. He barrelled the ball 16% of the time and he is among the leaders in max exit velo. There are some concerns about injury, but he played a full season, so that should quell some of the worry. If you can get speed in the first or third, he is a pretty nice late second/early third rounder. 

Byron Buxton (+7.55)- Buxton is raising a people’s dream on the prospect that he could finally stay healthy for a full year at some point. In just 61 games he hit 19 home runs and stole nine bases with a .306 average. His skills and projections are amazing, but it is so hard to trust considering he hasn’t played in 90+ games in a season since 2017. 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

Top 200 Players Rising

Chris Taylor (+11.03)-  I think Taylor’s rise is mostly about his resigning in Los Angeles. His return should mean full time playing time especially with Gavin Lux being unproven and uncertainty around Max Muncy’s health. He is triple eligible in most formats and even adds 3B in leagues like on Yahoo where eligibility is lower. There was a bit of a drop in his average in the second half which is a little concerning as his great first half was propped up by a .364 BABIP, but I think he has a good chance to repeat last year’s number while giving you a ton of position flexibility to help build your roster. 

Avasail Garcia (+10.41)- Garcia continues to rise after signing a long term deal in Miami with the Marlins.  That being said, I don’t love the landing spot in Miami. The park and lineup are a downgrade for him, but on the plus side, he will get everyday at bats. I am worried he will price himself out of being useful. 

Marcell Ozuna (+31.23)- Ozuna is rising after he was handed a retroactive suspension meaning he will not miss any time in 2022. After missing so much time last year, it is hard to nail down a projection on him, but he is a pretty good bet to hit 20-30 home runs with a good average and plenty of RBIs.

Top 200 Players Falling

None

Top 300 Players Rising

Seiya Suzuki (+14.24)- Suzuki is continuing to rise as people are expecting him to sign a deal once the CBA is worked out. There is a ton of talent in the bat and there is a lot of belief he can translate to the American game pretty quickly. I am excited for him too, but I learned my lesson with Sugano last season by drafting him before he signed and then getting burned when he didn’t. 

Lane Thomas (+13.51)- Thomas is quickly becoming one of the more popular sleepers in the industry this year. From 8/28 on, he led off in every game he played and he has power and speed. He makes great in zone contact and should be able to be very productive in that leadoff spot. I am on board the hype train. 

Garrett Hampson (+15.41)- See the piece in this series on second basemen. 

Julio Rodriguez (+16.86)- I don’t think there is anyone that is questioning the talent that J-Rod has, but I am always skeptical about drafting minor leaguers when we don’t know when they will be up. It doesn’t sound like we will know any time soon if there service time rules will change, so I am avoiding him in drafts without a minor league slot for right now. 

Top 300 Players Falling

Mark Canha (-15.2)- Canha’s rise comes from his signing a long term deal in New York. It is an interesting fit for him. The park change is pretty neutral, but I am a bit worried about where he hits in the lineup and whether he is going to be allowed to run as much if he is hitting sixth like Roster Resource has him projected to. 

Others of Note

Kyle Lewis (-19.44)- I am a bit surprised to see Lewis drop because I have heard some in the industry singing Lewis’ praises. Lewis has a ton of talent, but he has struggled his entire career to stay on the field. Because of that, I am fading him even though I hope he proves me wrong. 

Connor Joe (+29.49)- Who doesn’t like a good cup of Joe? Joe was great when he was on the field, hitting .285/.379/.469 with eight home runs in 211 plate appearances. As of right now, he is projected to have a full time role and lead off the Rockies. That being said, it is the Rockies and we can’t really trust them like we might another team. Joe is an interesting upside play because if he plays regularly, he could be a really big contributor and right now the price is great. 

Yoshi Tsutsugo (+40.77)- See the piece in this series on first basemen. 

 

Outfielder ADP Market Report: 2/8/22
1/1/22-2/8/22 Player Team Position(s) 10/1/21-11/14/21 11/15/21-12/31/21 Change
2.08 Fernando Tatis Jr. SD SS, OF 1.67 1.88 -0.2
4.19 Juan Soto WAS OF 3.61 3.88 -0.31
9.57 Bryce Harper PHI OF 12.11 10.66 1.09
11.93 Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL OF 12.67 12 0.07
11.97 Kyle Tucker HOU OF 12.83 11.91 -0.06
14.58 Mike Trout LAA OF 15.44 15.44 0.86
15.53 Mookie Betts LAD OF 11.72 15.09 -0.44
17.23 Luis Robert CWS OF 18.78 18.49 1.26
29.11 Starling Marte NYM OF 27.61 28.37 -0.74
29.13 Yordan Alvarez HOU OF 36.39 34.78 5.65
31.18 Teoscar Hernandez TOR OF 36.83 33.49 2.31
31.67 Whit Merrifield KC 2B, OF 34 30.62 -1.05
32.6 Cedric Mullins BAL OF 26.61 28.96 -3.64
37.87 Aaron Judge NYY OF 41.44 41.57 3.7
48.21 Tyler O’Neill STL OF 52.44 50.34 2.13
59.29 Byron Buxton MIN OF 67.78 66.84 7.55
59.48 Randy Arozarena TB OF 56.94 58 -1.48
61.33 George Springer TOR OF 55.11 57.01 -4.32
62.39 Eloy Jimenez CWS OF 58.56 64.1 1.71
62.61 Nick Castellanos CIN OF 61.67 60.26 -2.35
81.27 Ketel Marte ARZ 2B, OF 83.72 84.37 3.1
85.19 Tommy Edman STL 2B, OF 82.89 83.26 -1.93
89.63 J.D. Martinez BOS OF 89.67 87.85 -1.78
91.85 Daulton Varsho ARZ C, OF 102.44 99.4 7.55
91.89 Bryan Reynolds PIT OF 107.22 97.44 5.55
92.6 Kris Bryant SF 3B, OF 92.28 86.34 -6.26
97.53 Giancarlo Stanton NYY OF 100.61 96.26 -1.27
97.99 Cody Bellinger LAD OF 92.78 103.71 5.72
99.63 Christian Yelich MLW OF 103.5 104.41 4.78
106.52 Ryan Mountcastle BAL 1B, OF 115.61 108.31 1.79
107.91 Jesse Winker CIN OF 106.33 109.29 1.38
109.46 Mitch Haniger SEA OF 106.28 107.71 -1.75
127.21 Kyle Schwarber BOS OF 122.61 122.65 -4.56
129.44 Myles Straw CLE OF 139.61 134.82 5.38
132.68 Jarred Kelenic SEA OF 137.28 132.93 0.25
135.23 Trent Grisham SD OF 127 129.6 -5.63
136.34 Chris Taylor LAD 2B, SS, OF 161 147.37 11.03
140.03 Austin Meadows TB OF 129.39 132.78 -7.25
143.08 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. TOR OF 144.83 144.72 1.64
156.69 Akil Baddoo DET OF 167.06 161.13 4.44
160.55 Eddie Rosario ATL OF 172.39 162.91 2.36
161.14 Alex Verdugo BOS OF 162.39 151.57 -9.57
164.87 Hunter Renfroe MLW OF 174.56 176.29 11.42
167.47 Avisail Garcia MIA OF 192.5 177.88 10.41
167.66 Dylan Carlson STL OF 154.78 158.54 -9.12
168.68 Adolis Garcia TEX OF 145.67 162.19 -6.49
174.05 Alex Kirilloff MIN 1B, OF 178.17 172.85 -1.2
178.95 Joey Gallo NYY OF 177.11 185.54 6.59
183.86 Robbie Grossman DET OF 168.67 174.93 -8.93
190.47 Michael Conforto NYM OF 188.67 187.25 -3.22
191.11 Ian Happ CHC OF 187.83 192.37 1.26
191.86 Andrew Benintendi KC OF 209.67 202.81 10.95
193.25 Jorge Soler ATL OF 195.94 194.5 1.25
195.11 Marcell Ozuna ATL OF 354.72 226.34 31.23
210.97 Seiya Suzuki FA OF 302.44 225.21 14.24
213.23 Enrique Hernandez BOS 2B, OF 247.72 225.79 12.56
220.74 AJ Pollock LAD OF 209.56 221.15 0.41
224.02 Austin Hays BAL OF 204 206.13 -17.89
224.46 Ramon Laureano OAK OF 216.56 229.04 4.58
225.43 Josh Rojas ARZ 2B, SS, OF 248.67 230.22 4.79
227.68 Adam Duvall ATL OF 215.78 220.99 -6.69
228.63 Harrison Bader STL OF 251.72 238.1 9.47
229.71 Jesus Sanchez MIA OF 227.06 238.53 8.82
231.89 Jo Adell LAA OF 246.28 241.07 9.18
234.85 Charlie Blackmon COL OF 254.61 246.97 12.12
235.12 Andrew Vaughn CWS OF 216.94 231.1 -4.02
247.68 Michael Brantley HOU OF 248.78 252.9 5.22
251.28 Lane Thomas WAS OF 274.61 264.79 13.51
256.3 Anthony Santander BAL OF 249.67 244.81 -11.49
262.79 Tommy Pham SD OF 275.83 270.51 7.72
267.27 Mark Canha NYM OF 267.39 252.07 -15.2
268.75 Raimel Tapia COL OF 277.94 275.22 6.47
270.01 Garrett Hampson COL 2B, OF 280.11 287.03 17.02
271.51 Julio Rodriguez SEA OF 279.78 288.37 16.86
279.89 Wil Myers SD OF 281.11 279.04 -0.85
280.39 Max Kepler MIN OF 291.78 276.37 -4.02
281.79 Mike Yastrzemski SF OF 282.06 272.69 -9.1
299.64 Luis Arraez MIN 2B, 3B, OF 341.67 300.01 0.37
302.19 Eric Haase DET C, OF 265.11 292.88 -9.31
302.51 Brandon Nimmo NYM OF 287.39 298.34 -4.17
305.19 Kyle Lewis SEA OF 259.06 285.75 -19.44
307.1 LaMonte Wade Jr. SF 1B, OF 301.33 304.53 -2.57
314 Riley Greene DET OF 305.78 307.16 -6.84
319.6 Rafael Ortega CHC OF 313.72 316.87 -2.73
319.9 Jeff McNeil NYM 2B, OF 294.56 314.41 -5.49
334.8 Connor Joe COL OF 383.94 364.29 29.49
337.88 Yoshi Tsutsugo PIT 1B, OF 528.11 378.65 40.77
346.27 Andrew McCutchen PHI OF 329.67 335.96 -10.31
347.55 Vidal Brujan TB OF 281.33 294.91 -52.64
349.89 Tyler Naquin CIN OF 346.06 348.28 -1.61
358.01 Manuel Margot TB OF 369 385.66 27.65
364.4 Hunter Dozier KC 3B, OF 332.44 345.66 -18.74
370.29 Brandon Marsh LAA OF 335.22 385.57 15.28
370.73 Randal Grichuk TOR OF 349.17 360.15 -10.58
376.15 Pavin Smith ARZ 1B, OF 352 364.84 -11.31
388.68 Josh Harrison OAK 2B, 3B, OF 345.72 378.51 -10.17
393.83 Jorge Alfaro SD C, OF 395.61 394.84 1.01
396.73 Sam Hilliard COL OF 349.28 359.79 -36.94
399.41 Jarren Duran BOS OF 417.39 415.25 15.84
406.89 Lorenzo Cain MLW OF 405.61 421.25 14.36
412.38 Dominic Smith NYM OF 343.11 395.96 -16.42
417.25 Willie Calhoun TEX OF 392.06 421.07 3.82
424.54 Clint Frazier CHC OF 537.56 408.47 -16.07
429.89 Tony Kemp OAK 2B, OF 390.94 403.51 -26.38
432.19 Victor Robles WAS OF 347.5 406.12 -26.07
434.96 Joc Pederson ATL OF 389.06 428.74 -6.22
451.79 Jorge Mateo BAL OF 386.78 443.18 -8.61
452.21 Michael A. Taylor KC OF 411.33 431.31 -20.9
452.53 Chas McCormick HOU OF 437.17 453.44 0.91
455.01 Josh Lowe TB OF 385.06 483.56 28.55
465.63 Tyler Wade LAA 3B, SS, OF 581.56 480.19 14.56
465.97 Nick Senzel CIN OF 464.17 471.43 5.46
469.15 Darin Ruf SF 1B, OF 436.56 475.03 5.88
471.92 Dylan Moore SEA 2B, OF 387.06 421.72 -50.2
473.13 Seth Brown OAK OF 534.22 496.57 23.44
473.88 David Peralta ARZ OF 465.06 481.38 7.5
478.09 Kole Calhoun TEX OF 574.22 454.04 -24.05
480.71 Bryan De La Cruz MIA OF 399.06 459.22 -21.49
484.79 Aaron Hicks NYY OF 414.72 430.71 -54.08
487.95 Bradley Zimmer CLE OF 467.17 514.65 26.7
490.27 Tyrone Taylor MLW OF 478.17 486.63 -3.64
500.29 Jurickson Profar SD 1B, OF 518.72 476.76 -23.53
518.14 Garrett Cooper MIA OF 460.11 510.49 -7.65
520.27 Kyle Isbel KC OF 480.83 518.09 -2.18
521.26 Leury Garcia CWS 2B, OF 580.5 517.35 -3.91
542.57 Trevor Larnach MIN OF 481.28 541.43 -1.14
544.55 Steven Kwan CLE OF 653.61 577.88 33.33
544.95 Anthony Alford PIT OF 671.67 630.07 85.12
547.49 Harold Ramirez CHC OF 545 538.75 -8.74
554.77 Leody Taveras TEX OF 487.72 542.97 -11.8
562.09 Jose Siri HOU OF 559 564.68 2.59
577.19 Nick Gordon MIN OF 515.72 567.57 -9.62
578.49 Alek Thomas ARZ OF 564.56 596.78 18.29
582.99 Jace Peterson MLW 1B, 2B, OF 608.61 578.04 -4.95
588.01 Brad Miller PHI 1B, OF 531 573.6 -14.41
592.89 Lars Nootbaar STL OF 591.33 560.44 -32.45
596.18 Edward Olivares KC OF 547.56 594.79 -1.39
599.75 Austin Slater SF OF 501.33 547.4 -52.35
600.83 Brennen Davis CHC OF 531.5 577.69 -23.14
602.18 Justin Upton LAA OF 528.72 558.04 -44.14
611.59 Matt Vierling PHI OF 642.78 637.75 26.16
616.69 Kevin Kiermaier TB OF 583.06 598.37 -18.32
617.16 Jake Meyers HOU OF 536.28 588.56 -28.6
620.13 Chad Pinder OAK OF 672.94 639.44 19.31
621.36 Josh Naylor CLE OF 586.94 609.31 -12.05
641.77 Yadiel Hernandez WAS OF 628.33 620.25 -21.52
645.85 Matt Beaty LAD 1B, OF 633 628.49 -17.36
646.79 Ben Gamel PIT OF 741.11 644.12 -2.67
647.31 Victor Reyes DET OF 622.83 588.1 -59.21
648.26 Oscar Mercado CLE OF 600.28 632.5 -15.76
650.19 Jackie Bradley Jr. BOS OF 694.67 641.5 -8.69
657.69 Jake Fraley SEA OF 578.06 651.07 -6.62
660.6 Cristian Pache ATL OF 650 662.24 1.64
662.51 Odubel Herrera PHI OF 571.89 638.65 -23.86
671.19 Mauricio Dubon SF 2B, SS, OF 576 654.26 -16.93
676.05 Zach McKinstry LAD 2B, OF 632.44 671.65 -4.4
681.84 Corey Dickerson TOR OF 564.11 611.9 -69.94
687.73 Miguel Andujar NYY OF 659.78 696.38 8.65
696.8 Brett Phillips TB OF 644.89 672.85 -23.95
698.29 Phil Gosselin LAA 1B, 3B, OF 542.61 630.25 -68.04
699.64 Steven Duggar SF OF 659.17 669.09 -30.55
700.5 Aristides Aquino CIN OF 690.61 705.63 5.13
706.69 Adam Engel CWS OF NA 699.43 -7.26
709.75 Jason Heyward CHC OF 679.67 683.31 -26.44
716.4 Stephen Piscotty OAK OF 720.72 710.29 -6.11
716.77 Kevin Pillar NYM OF 576.61 662.25 -54.52
722.92 Daz Cameron DET OF 708.22 730.82 7.9
724.73 Greg Allen PIT OF 647.11 714.97 -9.76
727.74 David Dahl TEX OF 726.61 741.88 14.14
729.91 Heliot Ramos SF OF 689.11 721.21 -8.7
731.7 Alex Dickerson SF OF 588.78 655.81 -75.89
731.73 Brent Rooker MIN OF 673.78 733.31 1.58
733.82 Jake McCarthy ARZ OF 722.78 736.1 2.28
738.1 Austin Martin TOR OF 668.06 708.88 -29.22
738.47 Orlando Arcia ATL OF 750.06 742.76 4.29
738.8 Drew Waters ATL OF 688.33 739.49 0.69
739.06 Pedro Leon FA OF 694.11 729.68 -9.38
740.13 Taylor Trammell SEA OF 685.56 726.24 -13.89
740.44 Yonathan Daza COL OF 702.33 694.44 -46
740.59 Cooper Hummel ARZ OF 746.39 746.51 5.92
740.87 Ryan Vilade COL OF 741.33 726.82 -14.05
742.36 Scott Kingery PHI OF 740.94 729.26 -13.1
742.9 Nelson Velazquez CHC OF 709.22 716.01 -26.89
743.35 Gregory Polanco PIT OF 628.94 692.04 -51.31
743.45 TJ Friedl CIN OF 744.17 734.1 -9.35
744.73 Taylor Ward LAA OF 709.61 725.51 -19.22
744.98 Derek Hill DET OF 697.61 740.04 -4.94
745.97 DJ Stewart BAL OF 736.67 735.78 -10.19
746.03 Estevan Florial NYY OF 730.11 750.56 4.53
746.32 Andrew Stevenson WAS OF 734.89 738.65 -7.67
746.61 Lewis Brinson MIA OF 584.5 690.18 -56.43
746.61 Jordan Luplow ARZ OF 724 738.97 -7.64
748.08 Ryan O’Hearn KC 1B, OF 733.22 743.51 -4.57
748.9 Michael Hermosillo CHC OF 750.22 746.22 -2.68
749.05 Jake Bauers SEA 1B, OF 746.11 741.97 -7.08
749.26 Zac Veen FA OF 725.72 749.24 -0.02
749.47 Jared Oliva PIT OF 731.06 744.21 -5.26
749.69 Henry Ramos ARZ OF 747.17 NA #VALUE!
749.87 Kyle Stowers FA OF NA 749.37 -0.5
750.03 Luis Barrera OAK OF NA 750.51 0.48
750.06 Tyler Nevin BAL OF 741 749.1 -0.96
750.08 Adam Haseley PHI OF NA 749.76 -0.32
750.22 Max Schrock CIN OF 698.83 745.63 -4.59
750.48 Franchy Cordero BOS OF 734.5 746.62 -3.86
750.6 Nomar Mazara DET OF NA 750.84 0.24
750.61 Khalil Lee NYM OF 739.28 746.53 -4.08
750.68 Chris Owings COL OF 747.61 750.82 0.14
750.71 Alfonso Rivas CHC OF 749.78 750.82 0.11
750.75 Shogo Akiyama CIN OF NA 747.75 -3
750.79 Gilberto Celestino MIN OF NA 750.03 -0.76
750.8 Billy Hamilton CWS OF 743.11 749.71 -1.09
750.83 Mickey Moniak PHI OF 749.5 746.94 -3.89
750.84 Danny Santana BOS OF 747.72 NA #VALUE!
750.87 Travis Demeritte ATL OF 744.06 750.03 -0.84
750.91 Trayce Thompson CHC OF 746.22 NA #VALUE!
750.94 Mallex Smith SEA OF 727.5 750.78 -0.16
750.95 Shin-Soo Choo FA OF NA 742.44 -8.51
750.97 Roman Quinn PHI OF 743.89 NA #VALUE!
Brian Goodwin CWS OF 734.83 740.9 740.9
Billy McKinney TEX OF 745.28 741.93 741.93
Brett Gardner NYY OF 729.11 742.29 742.29
Tim Locastro BOS OF 739.89 746.72 746.72
Corey Ray MLW OF NA 747.46 747.46
Ender Inciarte CIN OF NA 748.16 748.16
Jarrod Dyson TOR OF NA 748.37 748.37
Magneuris Sierra MIA OF 743.28 749.54 749.54
Shed Long Jr. SEA OF NA 750.41 750.41
Monte Harrison MIA OF NA 750.69 750.69
Jake Lamb TOR OF 749.61 750.76 750.76
Ehire Adrianza ATL OF NA 750.78 750.78
Josh Reddick ARZ OF NA 750.84 750.84
Guillermo Heredia ATL OF 750.06 NA #VALUE!
Jake Cave MIN OF 749.67 NA #VALUE!
Jake Marisnick SD OF 749.78 NA #VALUE!
Stuart Fairchild ARZ OF 742.56 NA #VALUE!
SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
ADP and positional flexibility are based on NFBC Draft Champions leagues.





 

Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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wily moMember since 2020
3 years ago

chris taylor’s second half average drop was largely because there was like a month where he was playing through a neck injury and just didn’t do anything at all. clearly not right physically. seemed to get over it in the playoffs. so i wouldn’t worry about it

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