Second Base ADP Market Report: 1/31/22

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

Top 100 Players Rising

Marcus Semien (-12.35)- Semien is dropping after signing in Texas and for good reason. He posted career highs in home runs, RBIs, and stolen bases and his second best total in runs scored in 2021 with the Blue Jays. Pretty much all of those numbers should regress in a worse lineup and a worse ballpark in Texas. However, Semien retains second base and shortstop eligibility this season and the lineup won’t be as bad as some make it out to be. The Rangers have been very active on the basepaths in the last few years as well, stealing 286 bases since 2019 which is second most in baseball. He has also been a monster in terms of plate appearances, missing just 10 games in total over the last four seasons. If he continues to drop too far, he will become a bargain. 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

Top 200 Players Rising

Chris Taylor (+12.59)- I think Taylor’s rise is mostly about his resigning in Los Angeles. His return should mean full time playing time especially with Gavin Lux being unproven and uncertainty around Max Muncy’s health. He is triple eligible in most formats and even adds 3B in leagues like on Yahoo where eligibility is lower. There was a bit of a drop in his average in the second half which is a little concerning as his great first half was propped up by a .364 BABIP, but I think he has a good chance to repeat last year’s number while giving you a ton of position flexibility to help build your roster. 

Kolten Wong (+18.53)- Wong is coming off a sneaky good season in which he hit 14 home runs and stole 12 bases with a .272 in just 116 games. He also led off in 108 of those games. I think his rise is people coming around to how good he was. Wong should continue to lead off for a pretty good Brewers offense and if he can stay healthy, he should threaten a 15/15 season or possibly better. 

Jean Segura (+14.62)- I think Segura is rising because people are seeing some of the late middle infield options and realizing that he is one of the safer ones out there. If you don’t include 2020’s shortened season, Segura has hit double digit home runs and posted a .280 average or better in every season since 2016 and last year was the first time he didn’t steal double digit bases. It is nothing sexy, but you can pretty much pencil in 10/10 and with a good amount of runs and a great average outside of the top 200. 

Top 200 Players Falling

Brendan Rodgers (-11.9)- I am actually a bit surprised about Rodgers dropping in the ADP considering how many people I know that like him in the industry. That being said, I am on board with the drop. When Rodgers is in the lineup, he is a nice source of average while not being punchless. However, he only played in 107 games last season between AAA and the Majors and has missed considerable time over the course of his career with injuries. He doesn’t steal bases and I don’t know that the lineup around him will be very good. I think the Rockies are committed to him, but I don’t know that he has much upside and the downside is he misses too much time to have value. 

Max Muncy (-75.7)- See the piece in this series on first basemen. 

Top 300 Players Rising

Andres Gimenez (+42.61)- I don’t really know why Gimenez is rising so much other than people feeling desperate for speed after pick 300. Gimenez was a popular sleeper coming into 2021 and he fell flat on his face and ended up in the minors. He was fine when he returned, but improved as the season rolled into September, hitting .271 with three home runs and stealing four bases. It seems like he should get close to everyday playing time and could be a candidate to steal 15-20 bases with double digit homers. I am ready to be hurt again. 

Garrett Hampson (+25.87)- Hampson is rising probably for the same reason I speculated that Gimenez is; a need for speed. He hit lefties well, but has struggled versus righties for most of his career. In spite of some struggles down the stretch, he played regularly. As the Rockies lineup are currently constructed, he looks like he has a full time role, but there have been persistent rumors about Colorado being interested in a number of free agents which would hurt him to find a full time role. 

Top 300 Players Falling

Gavin Lux (-11.28)- Lux is falling due to the lack of production in the Majors over his first few seasons. It isn’t all his fault as he has not been given a full time role until late in the season and playoffs. Once he did, he hit .360/.467/.500 with a home run and a stolen base to end the season. He has some nice underlying numbers with an 88.5% zone contact percentage and a 40% hard hit percentage. However, he did struggle in the postseason, hitting just .214. I still believe in the talent and think there is 20/20 with a good average, but at this point we are drafting off of potential. 

Others of Note-

Cesar Hernandez (+61.1)- Hernandez is rising after signing a deal in Washington to be their second baseman. I am a little disappointed because I was hoping Luis Garcia would get a shot, but he is projected to hit in front of Soto and that is a pretty nice place to be. He clearly sold out for power, swinging more in and out of the zone and dropping his contact rate a bit in the process. That being said, the drop in average is likely due to the low BABIP, though he did earn some of that regression. With the ADP so low, he is definitely worth the gamble as a bench option.