Second Base ADP Market Report: 1/31/22

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

Top 100 Players Rising

Marcus Semien (-12.35)- Semien is dropping after signing in Texas and for good reason. He posted career highs in home runs, RBIs, and stolen bases and his second best total in runs scored in 2021 with the Blue Jays. Pretty much all of those numbers should regress in a worse lineup and a worse ballpark in Texas. However, Semien retains second base and shortstop eligibility this season and the lineup won’t be as bad as some make it out to be. The Rangers have been very active on the basepaths in the last few years as well, stealing 286 bases since 2019 which is second most in baseball. He has also been a monster in terms of plate appearances, missing just 10 games in total over the last four seasons. If he continues to drop too far, he will become a bargain. 

Top 100 Players Falling


Top 200 Players Rising

Chris Taylor (+12.59)- I think Taylor’s rise is mostly about his resigning in Los Angeles. His return should mean full time playing time especially with Gavin Lux being unproven and uncertainty around Max Muncy’s health. He is triple eligible in most formats and even adds 3B in leagues like on Yahoo where eligibility is lower. There was a bit of a drop in his average in the second half which is a little concerning as his great first half was propped up by a .364 BABIP, but I think he has a good chance to repeat last year’s number while giving you a ton of position flexibility to help build your roster. 

Kolten Wong (+18.53)- Wong is coming off a sneaky good season in which he hit 14 home runs and stole 12 bases with a .272 in just 116 games. He also led off in 108 of those games. I think his rise is people coming around to how good he was. Wong should continue to lead off for a pretty good Brewers offense and if he can stay healthy, he should threaten a 15/15 season or possibly better. 

Jean Segura (+14.62)- I think Segura is rising because people are seeing some of the late middle infield options and realizing that he is one of the safer ones out there. If you don’t include 2020’s shortened season, Segura has hit double digit home runs and posted a .280 average or better in every season since 2016 and last year was the first time he didn’t steal double digit bases. It is nothing sexy, but you can pretty much pencil in 10/10 and with a good amount of runs and a great average outside of the top 200. 

Top 200 Players Falling

Brendan Rodgers (-11.9)- I am actually a bit surprised about Rodgers dropping in the ADP considering how many people I know that like him in the industry. That being said, I am on board with the drop. When Rodgers is in the lineup, he is a nice source of average while not being punchless. However, he only played in 107 games last season between AAA and the Majors and has missed considerable time over the course of his career with injuries. He doesn’t steal bases and I don’t know that the lineup around him will be very good. I think the Rockies are committed to him, but I don’t know that he has much upside and the downside is he misses too much time to have value. 

Max Muncy (-75.7)- See the piece in this series on first basemen. 

Top 300 Players Rising

Andres Gimenez (+42.61)- I don’t really know why Gimenez is rising so much other than people feeling desperate for speed after pick 300. Gimenez was a popular sleeper coming into 2021 and he fell flat on his face and ended up in the minors. He was fine when he returned, but improved as the season rolled into September, hitting .271 with three home runs and stealing four bases. It seems like he should get close to everyday playing time and could be a candidate to steal 15-20 bases with double digit homers. I am ready to be hurt again. 

Garrett Hampson (+25.87)- Hampson is rising probably for the same reason I speculated that Gimenez is; a need for speed. He hit lefties well, but has struggled versus righties for most of his career. In spite of some struggles down the stretch, he played regularly. As the Rockies lineup are currently constructed, he looks like he has a full time role, but there have been persistent rumors about Colorado being interested in a number of free agents which would hurt him to find a full time role. 

Top 300 Players Falling

Gavin Lux (-11.28)- Lux is falling due to the lack of production in the Majors over his first few seasons. It isn’t all his fault as he has not been given a full time role until late in the season and playoffs. Once he did, he hit .360/.467/.500 with a home run and a stolen base to end the season. He has some nice underlying numbers with an 88.5% zone contact percentage and a 40% hard hit percentage. However, he did struggle in the postseason, hitting just .214. I still believe in the talent and think there is 20/20 with a good average, but at this point we are drafting off of potential. 

Others of Note-

Cesar Hernandez (+61.1)- Hernandez is rising after signing a deal in Washington to be their second baseman. I am a little disappointed because I was hoping Luis Garcia would get a shot, but he is projected to hit in front of Soto and that is a pretty nice place to be. He clearly sold out for power, swinging more in and out of the zone and dropping his contact rate a bit in the process. That being said, the drop in average is likely due to the low BABIP, though he did earn some of that regression. With the ADP so low, he is definitely worth the gamble as a bench option. 


Second Base ADP Market Report: 1/31/22
12/13/21-1/30/22 Player Team Position(s) 10/1/21-11/14/21 11/15/21-12/12/21 Change
1.23 Trea Turner LAD 2B, SS 1.94 1.73 0.5
19.55 Ozzie Albies ATL 2B 19.28 20.77 1.22
30.64 Whit Merrifield KC 2B, OF 34 31.69 1.05
39.58 Marcus Semien TEX 2B, SS 27.78 27.23 -12.35
64.43 Javier Baez DET 2B, SS 67.06 65.62 1.19
71.72 Jazz Chisholm Jr. MIA 2B, SS 76.17 76.88 5.16
79.77 Jose Altuve HOU 2B 76.22 73.73 -6.04
80.6 Tommy Edman STL 2B, OF 82.89 82.62 2.02
82.55 Brandon Lowe TB 2B 88.5 84.12 1.57
85.23 Jorge Polanco MIN 2B, SS 89.22 86.85 1.62
88.17 Ketel Marte ARZ 2B, OF 83.72 83.5 -4.67
93.7 Jonathan India CIN 2B 101.5 100.15 6.45
116.68 DJ LeMahieu NYY 1B, 2B, 3B 123.28 115.69 -0.99
124.26 Jake Cronenworth SD 1B, 2B, SS 122.83 122.5 -1.76
143.6 Chris Taylor LAD 2B, SS, OF 161 156.19 12.59
143.72 Ty France SEA 1B, 2B 155.78 140.85 -2.87
157 Luis Urias MLW 2B, 3B, SS 180.39 179 22
168.74 Ryan McMahon COL 2B, 3B 184.11 178.04 9.3
172.17 Brendan Rodgers COL 2B, SS 155.83 160.27 -11.9
180.43 Kolten Wong MLW 2B 202.06 198.96 18.53
185.51 Max Muncy LAD 1B, 2B 98.94 109.81 -75.7
198.83 Eduardo Escobar NYM 2B, 3B 200.39 189.81 -9.02
199.3 Jean Segura PHI 2B 217.39 213.92 14.62
212.21 Jonathan Schoop DET 1B, 2B 205.28 205.35 -6.86
222.36 Gavin Lux LAD 2B, SS 207.89 211.08 -11.28
224.62 Enrique Hernandez BOS 2B, OF 247.72 231.69 7.07
226.66 Josh Rojas ARZ 2B, SS, OF 248.67 230.31 3.65
232.62 Andres Gimenez CLE 2B, SS 282.67 275.23 42.61
255.42 Abraham Toro SEA 2B, 3B 268.78 265.42 10
267.21 Garrett Hampson COL 2B, OF 280.11 293.08 25.87
290.15 Nick Madrigal CHC 2B 290.33 299.81 9.66
297.42 Luis Arraez MIN 2B, 3B, OF 341.67 304.58 7.16
319.55 Adam Frazier SEA 2B 326.28 301.42 -18.13
325.19 David Fletcher LAA 2B, SS 318.33 333.19 8
329.43 Jeff McNeil NYM 2B, OF 294.56 303.62 -25.81
335.21 Cesar Hernandez WAS 2B 425.11 396.31 61.1
353.94 Nick Solak TEX 2B 335.5 377.46 23.52
357.04 Ha-Seong Kim SD 2B, 3B, SS 398.06 385.5 28.46
362.77 Nico Hoerner CHC 2B 340.33 362.35 -0.42
374.6 Josh Harrison OAK 2B, 3B, OF 345.72 352.85 -21.75
376.08 Wilmer Flores SF 1B, 2B, 3B 379.33 382.19 6.11
382.94 Tony Kemp OAK 2B, OF 390.94 403.73 20.79
394.34 Edmundo Sosa STL 2B, SS 360.33 353.31 -41.03
415.87 Ramon Urias BAL 2B, SS 467.17 452.23 36.36
431.62 Rougned Odor BAL 2B, 3B 624.39 524.88 93.26
432.57 Dylan Moore SEA 2B, OF 387.06 397.73 -34.84
435.64 Luis Garcia WAS 2B 467.17 470.42 34.78
448.68 Nolan Gorman STL 2B 469.94 538.58 89.9
470.98 Tommy La Stella SF 2B 504.28 509.31 38.33
488.04 Leury Garcia CWS 2B, OF 580.5 520.69 32.65
495.79 Robinson Cano NYM 2B 502.44 570.88 75.09
500.34 Willi Castro DET 2B, SS 460.44 486.81 -13.53
522.68 Andy Ibanez TEX 2B 469.28 591.15 68.47
538.25 Jace Peterson MLW 1B, 2B, OF 608.61 577.38 39.13
562.81 Michael Chavis PIT 2B 624.11 685.15 122.34
567.72 Matt Duffy CHC 2B, 3B 618.56 643.73 76.01
575.57 Jon Berti MIA 2B, 3B 559.56 632 56.43
594.94 Zach McKinstry LAD 2B, OF 632.44 683.23 88.29
621.83 Mike Brosseau MLW 2B, 3B 711.61 652.23 30.4
622.47 Mauricio Dubon SF 2B, SS, OF 576 625.23 2.76
641.45 Christian Arroyo BOS 2B 632.67 656.65 15.2
661.51 Josh VanMeter ARZ 2B, 3B 718.89 720.81 59.3
690.36 Donovan Solano SF 2B 680.17 660.73 -29.63
692.28 David Bote CHC 2B, 3B 607.39 696.15 3.87
707.74 Jed Lowrie OAK 2B 686.89 692.5 -15.24
717.36 Hoy Park PIT 2B 699 740.12 22.76
722.87 Isaac Paredes DET 2B 731.06 741.54 18.67
723.08 Diego Castillo PIT 2B 716.5 745.62 22.54
727.36 Hanser Alberto KC 2B, 3B 669.22 661.54 -65.82
728.85 Harold Castro DET 2B, SS 698.11 715.19 -13.66
734.02 Richie Palacios CLE 2B -734.02
735.64 Tucupita Marcano PIT 2B 745.94 748.85 13.21
739.58 Michael Busch LAD 2B 748.28 734.54 -5.04
741.21 Rodolfo Castro PIT 2B -741.21
742.43 Sergio Alcantara CHC 2B, SS 729 735.62 -6.81
743.42 Owen Miller CLE 2B 732 738.19 -5.23
744.45 Nick Gonzales PIT 2B 723.11 737.54 -6.91
744.55 Jahmai Jones BAL 2B 743.83 NA #VALUE!
746.49 Jose Peraza NYM 2B 745.72 749 2.51
747.08 Xavier Edwards TB 2B -747.08
747.94 Otto Lopez TOR 2B 736.22 749.27 1.33
748.36 Isan Diaz MIA 2B, 3B 732.06 741.35 -7.01
749.02 Michael Stefanic FA 2B -749.02
749.53 Andrew Young ARZ 2B 734.56 744.62 -4.91
749.77 Pat Valaika BAL 2B -749.77
750.21 Alan Trejo COL 2B NA 749.92 -0.29
750.45 Danny Mendick CWS 2B, SS -750.45
750.6 Nick Maton PHI 2B, SS -750.6
Rio Ruiz COL 2B NA 750.35 750.35
ADP and positional flexibility are based on NFBC l=eagues.

Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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2 years ago

Heads up: Semien should be put under ‘falling’, not ‘rising’, given the commentary.