First Base ADP Market Report: 1/31/22

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

Top 100 Players Rising

None

Top 100 Players Falling

Matt Olson (-11.74)- Olson’s fall is likely due to either the uncertainty around where he is playing next season or it is just other players passing him because he doesn’t offer any speed. If it is the latter, I think that is fair. As much as I love Olson and the gains he made in 2021, it is hard to draft him this high while passing on five category producers or premier starters or closers. 

Jose Abreu (-19.12)- I think Abreu’s fall has to do with other players passing over him, the depth at the position and his age. Abreu marks the last of the second tier of elite first basemen and while he is getting older, he still has a pretty safe floor and a fantastic lineup around him. 

Top 200 Players Rising

Joey Votto (+11.38)- Votto’s rise is due to people beginning to buy into the changes he made in 2021. Votto decided to become more aggressive, sacrificing some of his walk rate and strikeout rate for power. He still maintained a great on base percentage and a good strikeout rate in spite of swinging 11% more. In the process he raised his launch angle and hard hit percentage which resulted in a career high 17.2 barrel percentage. Not going to lie, I love this version of Votto. 

Top 200 Players Falling

Anthony Rizzo (-23.6)- Rizzo is dropping because has not yet signed a deal with a new team. Beyond that, there are other reasons to be concerned. Rizzo hit .214 versus righties in 2020. However, he did post a .223 BABIP versus righties too with no real drops in underlying metrics. If Rizzo continues to drop, he will likely become a value depending on his landing spot.

Max Muncy (-75.7)- With the news that Muncy may have a torn UCL, Muncy has continued to plummet. I love him as a player, but until we have a timetable or more information, you should take him off your draft boards and start throwing darts at Edwin Rios in deeper formats. 

Top 300 Players Rising

Nathaniel Lowe (+35.44)- I am not completely sure why Lowe is beginning to rise. It may be the fact that on top of possessing power, he stole eight bases and didn’t hurt your batting average. He made some nice strides in contact, posting a 90.5% zone contact percentage from the beginning of August through the end of the season. However, in spite of having power in the bat, he continues to hit the ball on the ground way too much to tap into it. I used to worry he wouldn’t be able to close the hole in his swing, but he has improved that, so I have some faith he can figure out how to elevate as well. 

Luke Voit (+14.18)- Voit’s rise is likely just a course correction after being undervalued in early drafts. Voit has been fantastic when he is on the field. Unfortunately, injures limited him to just 68 games last season. With rumors of Matt Olson being on the Yankees wish list, Voit’s price shouldn’t go through the roof and I am willing to gamble on a guy that has hit 33 home runs in 475 plate appearances over the last two years. 

Top 300 Players Falling

Yuli Gurriel (-15.17)- Gurriel is likely dropping because the fantasy community is ageist. Gurriel is not going to regain the power we saw in 2019, but he is a pretty sure bet for a high average and nice counting categories in a great Astros lineup. Guys like this are always underrated and a nice buy especially in draft and hold leagues. 

Others of Note

Rowdy Tellez (+67.78)- Tellez is rising with the likelihood of the NL having the DH in 2022. He is likely to get a fair share of the plate appearances at first base with the added offensive spot. Tellez was quietly good in the second half after being traded to Milwaukee, hitting seven home runs with a .280/.335/.500 for the Brewers. He has a legit chance to be a very cheap 30 homer guy if he can get to 500+ plate appearances and as the team is currently constructed, he should be able to do it. 

Yoshi Tsutsugo (+89.82)- Tsutsugo continues to climb up the ADP as people start to realize how great he was after being traded to Pittsburgh. He hit .268/.347/.535 with eight home runs from August 16 on. During that time he raised his barrel percentage while keeping his contact percentage stable. He is projected to hit high up in an improving lineup and is still well priced as long as he doesn’t continue to skyrocket.