Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: September 21–27

Welcome to the final Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner of the year. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit for Ottoneu points leagues. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Make sure you’re paying attention to the probable pitchers for that final weekend of the season. Some teams who are already locked into their playoff berth may take the opportunity to rest some of their starters ahead of the postseason. There are a handful of starters (Max Fried, Zack Wheeler, Logan Henderson) who are projected for two-start weeks but I could definitely see their respective teams skip that final start of the season to ensure everyone is well rested for the playoffs.