Big Kid Adds (Week 25)


Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain every advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in four or more leagues.

Batters

Josue De Paula (9): I would have been higher on De Paula if I had known Freeman wasn’t going to play. The left-handed hitting De Paula’s underlying skills (81% Contact%, 5 BB) have been great in 19 PA. He’s hit a home run and stolen a base. I’m not worried about his .143 AVG from a .091 BABIP.

I don’t have any good AA-to-major league hitter translations/tools to help evaluate hitters, but he’s passing all the tests so far. Feel free to add for the final week and how he performs to end the season will determine his 2027 fantasy value.

Kyle Karros (8): With three of four series at home for Colorado, Karros, who just came off the IL, was an obvious add as the Rockies’ starting third baseman. He has taken a step forward from last season with more contact (75% to 78% Contact%) and power (87.9 mph to 89.4 mph average EV).

Dustin Harris (7): Harris is on his third MLB team this season (CHW, HOU, SDP) and has settled in as a strong-side platoon bat. The 26-year-old maybe has 10 HR upside, so don’t expect much power. He puts the ball in play, gets on first base, and is a terror on the basepaths. Normally he’s ignorable, but he had four games in Colorado this week.

Jorge Mateo (7): With Taylor Walls on the IL, Mateo took over at shortstop. The 31-year-old has one skill: speed (19 SB in 204 PA). The 5 HR helps, but he’s a Batting Average sink because of a 30% K%. And now Walls is back from the IL, so Mateo’s value drops.

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Shea Langeliers (6): When Langeliers returned from the IL to finish the season, the move surprised many people. The Athletics had nothing to play for, but he returned … sort of. In five games since returning, he’s started in three as the DH in each. No games at catcher. While he’s able to make plenty of contact, his bat speed is down about a half mile per hour.

Right now, I might look at adding Leo Bernal, Luis Campusano, and Rafael Flores Jr. over Langeliers, who have all been productive and probably play more.

Ryan Vilade (6): Tampa came into the week scheduled to face five lefties in six games. Vilade has been on a weak-side platoon (career .759 OPS vs LHP, .609 OPS vs RHP) all season, so he was a reasonable add. He doesn’t have one standout or hindering trait. He might not have been worth adding in shallower leagues and next week he is lined up to face just three lefties, so he’s likely a drop after this weekend.

Dansby Swanson (5): Reports put Swanson returning to the Cubs on Friday. Before going on the IL, Swanson struggled with a .216 AVG, but did have 18 HR and 17 SB. For those fantasy managers paying attention to injury information, they added a top-100 pick for pennies on the dollar.

Lazaro Montes (5): While Montes has hit 3 HR (38 HR in AAA) since being promoted, it comes with a 56% Contact% leading to a 45% K%. And he’s only starting against righties. If a team needs power and can take a batting average hit, he might be worth the dart throw.

Starters

Corbin Burnes (7): Since returning from the IL, Burnes has been down over 2 mph on all his pitches. As a result, he is throwing batting practice with a 5.87 ERA (5.47 xFIP, 5.06 botERA) and a 2.4 HR/9 (17% GB%).

He’s throwing his two fastballs (cutter and sinker) a combined 59% of the time. If his velocity stays down, he needs to get that rate closer to 40% and rely on his secondaries more.

Part of Burnes’s appeal was two starts this week. As his near 6.00 ERA shows, the first start did not go well (4 IP, 5 ER, 4 K, 0 BB, 2 HR). Right now, Burnes is lined up to face San Diego next week. I hope to find a better option than him.

Relievers

Rico Garcia (7): Coming into this bidding cycle, Garcia secured Baltimore’s last two Saves and got another one this week. Andrew Kittredge also got one Save this week. While Garcia might not get all the team’s Saves, he is posting good ratios (2.94 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 9.1 K/9). For those teams grinding for Saves, Garcia is a viable option.

 

Most Added Players in NFBC “Elite” Leagues
Name Leagues Max Winning Bid Min Winning Bid
Josue De Paula 9 51 2
Kyle Karros 8 29 1
Rico Garcia 7 6 1
Corbin Burnes 7 29 1
Dustin Harris 7 11 2
Jorge Mateo 7 5 1
Shea Langeliers 6 19 6
Ryan Vilade 6 1 1
Dansby Swanson 5 3 1
Lazaro Montes 5 5 2
Ryan Zeferjahn 4 2 1
Adael Amador 4 9 2
Josh Jung 4 12 5
David Peterson 4 8 1
J.P. Crawford 4 4 1
John Peck 4 3 1




Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

2 Comments
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lesmashMember since 2017
2 days ago

Hi Jeff: As a subscriber, I want to express my thanks to you for all of your work and advice throughout the season. Your analysis is basically required reading for me, and I’m sure I’m not alone there. The Sunday night stuff is particularly helpful imo.

MotownRandyMember since 2019
2 days ago

Regarding Rico Garcia: Bautista was just activated. While it’s unclear what his role is, it could impact other Baltimore relievers.