Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – September 4th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!

Chad: Tell me about Lawrence Butler. Top ___ hitter next year?

Paul Sporer: 150? I’m excited, but don’t wanna get drunk on hype

Greg: Keep one for next year – Bichette, Sandy Alcantara, Springs, Woo, Gausman.

Paul Sporer: I’m inclined to run with Woo there. Sandy is out bc he’s returning from TJ, even if we agree Bichette is better than his 2024 washout, I’m still not sure he ever nabs 20+ SBs again, and then w/Woo-Springs-Gausman, i just prefer Woo the most there even w/some of the health issues he has experienced so far

Kate: Do we know why Masyn Winn has kind of stopped running midseason?  Is this injury related?

Paul Sporer: Could be an injury that is enough to slow him down but not take him off the field. Always tough with those situations

JG: Time to move on from Adolis Garcia ? A Couple of hot bats available : Nootbaar, Moniak, Grichuk….  Deep 12T Mixed Daily Roto

Paul Sporer: Yeah if you think someone can better help you in the standings, almost anyone if free game to cut in September

Paul Sporer: and I know was vehemently against Adolis the last couple yrs only to have it blow up in my face, so I’m not gonna take a victory lap years later…. I will just say that the plate skils we’ve seen this year – 27% K/7% BB – were the same in 2022 and a key driver behind my distrust of him as a stud. he spiked to 10% BB rate last yr which really helped mitigate the issues of his K rate. we’ve no doubt seen the best of Adolis at this juncture, but that doesn’t mean he’s no longer draftable especially bc the price will no doubt sink for 2025

Nicholas: Who do you like more for the next 3-4 years Bobby Miller or Jared Jones in a points league that prioritizes QS?

Paul Sporer: Undoubtedly a rough year for Miller, but I’m sticking w/him. I still believe there’s ace upside for a healthy Bobby Miller. He was decidedly not that this year, but I think it’d be foolhardy to run away from him entirely based on this season. Jared Jones isn’t far behind but even if the talent levels are close, the team context favor Miller massively

Kate: Do you think Xavier Edwards will keep running wild coming off injury?  Or will the SBs be a little more limited the rest of this year?

Paul Sporer: If that back issue is fully healed, I think he gets back to running. The tough part is we just don’t know for sure. That said, I instantly put him back into my lineup yesterday

Kave Dingman: I’m the Commissioner of a Fantrax auction league. And my personal team’s draft/auction suffers every year due to having to act as Commish during the draft. Do you have any tips, tricks or strategies to deal with both roles?

Paul Sporer: Totally understand that. Anyway to delegate the during-auction duties to someone the league can trust just for that period so you can focus on the auction that day and not be torn in different directions? Alternately, are there commish duties that take place on Auction day that could be handled beforehand so you can focus?

Tim: Is Nico Hoerner a candidate for rebound next year? I’d like to think he could return to 285 with 35-40 steals, as he’ll still only be 28 and should retain 2b/SS eligibility

Paul Sporer: Yes, that’s still in the cards for sure. He’s just BABIP-dependent guy and even high contact guys like him will suffer the vagaries of BABIP as we’ve seen with his .282 this yr. I’m inclined to buy the dip next year if the price drops as I expect

Colton: Drink the Butler, Rooker, Bleday, Langeliers kool-aid. They’re playing in a little league park next year, I’m going to roster all of them in my dynasty lol

Paul Sporer: Justin and I have been discussing that on some recent pods. I did have a good convo with someone suggesting they could crank up a humidor for Sacramento to mitigate some of the offense there, but even with a Coors-esque humidor, I think we will undoubtedly see bigger offense from Oakland next yr. I’m a fan of all 4 of those A’s, btw!

JT: crazy thought, is Adley droppable ? playoff time now and Langliers, Wells, Alvarz & Del Castillo are all available free agents

Paul Sporer: Yes, he has been a complete disaster in the 2H — .209/.286/.310 w/2 HR in 147 PA. I’m fine making a move. Will Smith might be there too with a .203/.300/.352 line w/8 HRs in 263 PA since June 1st!

Kate: David Peterson has been on a roll lately.  Do you see anything new there or is this just a hot streak?

Paul Sporer: You know I never want to just point to BABIP and say a guy has been lucky or unlucky bc even the luckiest BABIP contains some skill from the player in question. During this 7-start run of 1.81 ERA for Peterson, it isn’t just BABIP, but the 32 pt drop from his first 10 starts is no doubt playing a big role. That said, he has also nearly doubled his K-BB rate from 7% to 13%, the gains mostly being driven by his BB% rate improving. So Peterson is doing things to fuel this run, but he hasn’t been like say, Bowden Francis, who looks like a stud while toting a minuscule ERA

Kate: Have the As found a legit starter in Osvaldo Bido?

Paul Sporer: I’m gonna copout a little and say I won’t really know until I can fully deep dive in Oct when I start the outline of my SP rankings, but he has been a stonecold stud down the stretch and barring a collapse, I don’t see him leaving the rotation the rest of the way given this expected schedule: DET, at CHW, at CHC, TEX

Guest: the Triple-A season ends 1 week before the MLB season. would you ever expect teams to give a top guy that short a cup of coffee with just 28 spots?

Paul Sporer: Yes, that can and will happen. Identifying exactly who is damn-near impossible bc you can see cases of the crummy team letting a prospect get a taste to reward their good season and give the fans something to be excited and cases of the stud team calling up a prospect bc they can use them as they fight for a playoff spot and/or seeding… but yes, I can def see some guys coming up late to get that 7-10 days

Guest: if you had to make the decision now, how many X’s would Ryne Nelson get against the Stros?

Paul Sporer: 3! He is dialed in right now and has played himself into an all-formats monster thanks to a 2.76 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 3.3 K/BB ratio (was just pulling off a different site that didn’t have K% or BB% so just went w/the K/BB ratio) in 75 IP

Kate: Have the Astros done it again with Arrighetti (i.e. made a meh prospect into a legit MLB SP)?

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes. I was keyed in on him during Spring Training bc Houston didn’t really have a ton of depth. Obviously I moved completely off him early in the season given how poorly he’d been pitching. In fact, I think it was his mega-dud against my Tigers where I was like ok he’s just not ready yet. And he wasn’t. But he soon would be.

I think his big gem v. COL game 2-3 starts later and since then he’s been awesome for them. All of a sudden the Stros might have more than 5 viable SPs for the playoffs depending on JV’s status. Arrighetti’s season long numbers are still being hampered by the early struggles, too.

KB: Time to move on from Randy? Cycle in hot bats? h2h categories playoffs

Paul Sporer: Yes, he’s been rough w/SEA (and wasn’t exactly great w/TBR, either, this year). It is now the time of year where ANYONE can be cut if they aren’t directly helping your standings. Everything is about where you can gain that extra point or 2 to move up the standings

tumtum: park factors in sacramento suggests about the same for oakland collesium

Paul Sporer: Do they? As I understood it, the ball flies there given the weather and dimensions

Paul Sporer: Oh wow (this is 2023)

Paul Sporer: That’s per Baseball America

Paul Sporer: I will investigate this further and question Justin on it!

GT: bye this week in playoffs, if all goes without an injury this week, pick up Arrighetti now for next week? seems like OAK and LAA on schedule

Paul Sporer: Absolutely!

Skenes: No mentions of me on your twitter since Jun 5.. should I be sad?

Paul Sporer: I just don’t use Twitter much anymore. I love Skenesy!!!

Paul Sporer: Wait until I write like 5 paragraphs about his awesomeness in the 2025 SP Rankings lol

Talk about playoffs?: Are you thinking about streamers you want to get a jump on for playoffs? Anything you can share?

Paul Sporer: We stay picking on the White Sox, of course, so available guys against them are intriguing. Griffin Canning and Jack Kochanowicz both line up for TWO starts against them down the stretch!!

Paul Sporer: They finish w/the Tigers and only Skubal is heavily rostered in leagues so the other guys should be available in a lot of leagues

Paul Sporer: Speaking of the Tigers, Keider Montero and Casey Mize get the last 2 starts v. Colorado outside of Coors in terms of guys who are likely to be available. Skubal also starts in that series and then 3 v. LAD where all 3 are heavily rostered

Paul Sporer: Reid Detmers actually doesn’t have a great schedule but has the talent to be good v. anyone as we saw in his return v. LAD yesterday. I’d be open to running him next wk v. MIN and if that goes well, then I’d probably hold for HOU/TEX to close the year. Yes, even HOU!

Paul Sporer: I’ve been running damn near anyone v. TBR and some of the available guys who might be facing them down the stretch include: Cole Irvin, Alex Cobb, Ben Lively 라이블리, Cooper Criswell 2x, Bowden Francis (shouldn’t be available, but saw his roster rate still has some room in shallower leagues so just make sure he’s rostered!), Chris Bassitt, and maybe a late-season Reese Olson return!

DMK: What do you think about Spencer Torkelson’s success since being recalled from the minors?  Good sign for next season?

Paul Sporer: I’m still in on Tork. Even with as poorly as the early season went, he’s just too young to quit. I’m definitely encouraged by his .920 OPS and 4 HR in 64 PA since returning. I doubt it’ll push his price way back up so I’m ready to buy relatively cheap in 2025. There’s still 30+ HR pop here for sure

Tim: Re: pitching vs the ChiSox; in fantasy football with IDP leagues, we would look for cornerbacks who start opposite of lock-down guys, because they’ll get thrown at more and will generate tackles and INT’s and we’ll get “Picked On Points”….same thing here hahaha

Paul Sporer: Yesss!!! I remember a few of the IDP leagues I played in AGESSSS ago ppl would overdraft some of the lockdown CBs forgetting that true lockdowns just never get thrown at so no chance for INTs and other stats. But yeah, it’s just easy money v. CHW so we gotta keep running guys v. them, even sketchy ones like Griffin Canning (maybe one day I’ll quit him, lol)

Martin: Do you like Detmers sunday @ TEX?

Paul Sporer: I do yes… but I do have a sickness for LAA pitchers (see my previous Canning comment!). My Detmers and Jose Soriano love is much stronger than my Canning love, though

JT: pick 2 of 4 RP to roster next week for playoffs: A. Munoz, J. Duran, T. Scott & L. Erceg

Paul Sporer: I like them in the order you’ve listed

Guest: Paul! Two weeks left for playoffs. Cut Steele for a good streamer at this point?

Paul Sporer: Yes, any hint of an injury is almost an auto-cut right now

JG: Munoz dealing with a injury

Paul Sporer: Ooh my bad on that. Lemme go Duran/Scott top 2 then

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. Thanks so much for coming — a packed queue on September 4th is awesome. Talk to y’all next week!