November ADP Market Report: First Basemen

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising

Dominic Smith (+10.92)- Over the month of November, Smith moved up more than any other player that began the month in the Top 200 in terms of NFBC ADP. Smith had a breakout season in 2020, but it is pretty much a replication of what he did in 2019 with the only difference is that he played close to full time this year. Outside of the playing time, his StatCast data was impressive as well, increasing his barrel percentage, exit velocity, sweet spot percentage, and hard hit percentage. He should retain full time playing time, even with the expected additions the Mets may make which should make him very valuable, especially with his 1B and OF eligibility. 

 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Ryan Mountcastle (+10.08)- Mountcastle jumped up in the ADP during the month of November. If you weren’t paying attention to Baltimore, you may not have noticed that he hit five home runs with a .333 batting average in 126 plate appearances. Mouncastle is a former top prospect that people may have forgotten a bit about, but he should play every day in Baltimore and has 1B and OF eligibility. 

 

Trey Mancini (+24.25)- Mancini has started to rise after good news about his health makes it sound like he may be ready for the season after missing 2020 with cancer. He hit 35 home runs with a .291 average in 2019 and while we won’t know what his baseball shape looks like until we get to spring, he is a great gamble at pick 200. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Rhys Hoskins (-18.79)- Hoskins is falling due to the news about his elbow surgery  in October. While it is not as serious as first thought, he is expected to miss 4-6 months which could put him at risk of missing Opening Day. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Ryan McMahon (+15.04)- It is a bit surprising to see McMahon rising. While he hit nine home runs, he struggled much of the season and it only got worse as the season went on. He hits the ball hard, but unfortunately, over 50% of his balls are hit on the ground. With David Dahl being non-tendered, Garrett Hampson could spend more time in the outfield, which would allow McMahon to continue playing full time, but that news hadn’t been out as of the November ADP. 

 

Wilmer Flores (+45.71)- Flores finally found full time playing time with the Giants and was quietly pretty good. He only struck out 17% of the time and popped 12 homers in 213 at bats. The rebuilding Giants seem committed to playing him and have an affordable option for him in 2022, so it is not a given they move him. He has 1B and 2B eligibility and just moved into the Top 300, so he is a nice value pick. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Jeimer Candelario (-18.12)- It is a bit weird that Candelario is dropping considering he hit .297/.369/.503 in 2020. Sure, it was only seven home runs, but he plays full time, doesn’t strike out an obscene amount, and has above average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and barrel percentage. He isn’t a world beater, but with first and third base eligibility and a full time role, he is a nice bench bat. 

 

Bobby Dalbec (-13.77)- Dalbec has a ton of power, but he also has a ton of swing and miss. Of all hitters that had at least 90 plate appearances, Dalbec had the third highest swinging strike percentage behind only Jorge Alfaro and Luis Robert and the worst contact percentage in the Majors. He can offer cheap power late, but it will likely come at the cost of batting average. 

 

Renato Nunez (-42.04)- Nunez’s drop is not unexpected after he was cut by the Orioles. However, it would be surprising for him not to get a job somewhere and he has shown he has a ton of power in the bat after a 31 homer season in 2019 and a 12 homer season in 2020. If he can land another full time role, he will be a steal at this price. 

 

Jesus Aguilar (-16.92)- Why is Aguilar dropping? He resigned with the Marlins and played 51 games for them, hitting .277/.352/.457 with eight home runs. Doesn’t make much sense for a team that should continue to get better and seems committed to letting him man first base or DH. 

November ADP Market Report: First Basemen
11/1/2020-11/30/2020 Player Team Position(s) 10/1/2020-10/31/2020 Change
13.42 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 15 1.58
14.46 Cody Bellinger LAD 1B, OF 16 1.54
27.04 DJ LeMahieu NYY 1B, 2B, 3B 28.75 1.71
33.77 Jose Abreu CWS 1B 34.5 0.73
58.42 Luke Voit NYY 1B 52.25 -6.17
60.23 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 1B 61.5 1.27
61.5 Pete Alonso NYM 1B 63.25 1.75
88.08 Dominic Smith NYM 1B, OF 99 10.92
91.35 Matt Olson OAK 1B 85.5 -5.85
97.58 Max Muncy LAD 1B, 2B, 3B 104 6.42
98.73 Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B 106 7.27
106.35 Alec Bohm PHI 1B, 3B 106.5 0.15
106.58 Paul Goldschmidt STL 1B 106 -0.58
128.92 Mike Moustakas CIN 1B, 2B 133.25 4.33
135.46 Eric Hosmer SD 1B 138.5 3.04
138.92 Ryan Mountcastle BAL 1B, OF 149 10.08
157.69 Jake Cronenworth SD 1B, 2B, SS 160.75 3.06
164.04 Rhys Hoskins PHI 1B 145.25 -18.79
182.23 Christian Walker ARZ 1B 176.25 -5.98
187.27 Josh Bell PIT 1B 180.75 -6.52
189.27 Jared Walsh LAA 1B 195 5.73
191.62 Miguel Sano MIN 1B 188.5 -3.12
200 Trey Mancini BAL 1B, OF 224.25 24.25
242.15 Hunter Dozier KC 1B, OF 232.75 -9.4
244.62 Jeimer Candelario DET 1B, 3B 226.5 -18.12
256.46 Ryan McMahon COL 1B, 2B, 3B 271.5 15.04
258.27 Bobby Dalbec BOS 1B 244.5 -13.77
273 Andrew Vaughn CWS 1B 272 -1
275.54 Renato Nunez BAL 1B 233.5 -42.04
284.38 Yuli Gurriel HOU 1B 286.5 2.12
284.73 Rowdy Tellez TOR 1B 283 -1.73
289.42 Jesus Aguilar MIA 1B 272.5 -16.92
295.04 Wilmer Flores SF 1B, 2B 340.75 45.71
300.77 Tommy La Stella OAK 1B, 2B 278.75 -22.02
320.69 Carlos Santana CLE 1B 334.75 14.06
348.65 C.J. Cron DET 1B 285.25 -63.4
359.08 Garrett Cooper MIA 1B 345.75 -13.33
367.92 Brandon Belt SF 1B 372.25 4.33
378.62 Evan White SEA 1B 388.25 9.63
393.5 Michael Chavis BOS 1B, 2B, OF 372 -21.5
398.58 Nate Lowe TB 1B 351.25 -47.33
402.08 Joey Votto CIN 1B 438.75 36.67
426.31 Mike Brosseau TB 1B, 2B, 3B 440.5 14.19
450.15 Colin Moran PIT 1B 444.75 -5.4
466.58 Travis Shaw TOR 1B, 3B 435.5 -31.08
467.85 Marwin Gonzalez MIN 1B, 2B, 3B, OF 471.75 3.9
471.19 Asdrubal Cabrera WAS 1B, 3B 472.25 1.06
486.54 Josh Fuentes COL 1B 474.75 -11.79
506.38 Danny Santana TEX 1B 452 -54.38
522.46 Mitch Moreland SD 1B 558 35.54
542.62 Pat Valaika BAL 1B, 2B, SS 575 32.38
590.23 Ji-Man Choi TB 1B 560 -30.23
592.42 Ronald Guzman TEX 1B 621 28.58
604.35 Pavin Smith ARZ 1B 600 -4.35
611.19 Jedd Gyorko MLW 1B, 3B 631.75 20.56
618.58 Lewin Diaz MIA 1B 624.75 6.17
652.65 Jake Lamb OAK 1B, 3B 676.5 23.85
674.27 Ryan McBroom KC 1B 599.5 -74.77
681.12 Albert Pujols LAA 1B 712.25 31.13
720.12 Mike Ford NYY 1B 673 -47.12
727.88 Jake Bauers CLE 1B, OF 739.75 11.87
736.5 Todd Frazier NYM 1B, 3B NA NA
737.27 Daniel Murphy COL 1B 690.5 -46.77
738.04 Ryan O’Hearn KC 1B NA NA
739.08 Eric Thames WAS 1B NA NA
741.58 Jose Osuna PIT 1B, OF 733.25 -8.33
742.73 Justin Smoak SF 1B 748 5.27
744.77 Seth Brown OAK 1B 707 -37.77
749.38 Phil Gosselin PHI 1B, OF NA NA
NA Matt Beaty LAD 1B 746 NA
NA Will Craig PIT 1B 745.75 NA
SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball





Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as random topics that float into his juvenile brain. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, and a fantasy football and baseball writer for Fantasy Alarm. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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elkabong
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elkabong

Mountcastle’s batting average is a huge mirage, though. A nearly .400 BABIP with a 16% SwStr%. He’s probably about 60-70 points worse in the average department.