November ADP Market Report: Second Basemen

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising

Brandon Lowe (+10.22.)- I think people are just now beginning to appreciate what Lowe can do. In three seasons, he has 37 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 699 plate appearances and 2020 was the first year he was a full time player. The playing time should be secure now and his price isn’t obscene yet because of his disastrous postseason. His 2B/OF dual eligibility is a nice bonus as well. 


Jeff McNeil (+11.55)- It seems like McNeil is getting a bit of boost after the Cano suspension which may regress back with the news that the NL teams are preparing to not have the DH in 2021. Personally, I don’t believe that pitchers will be hitting in 2021 as it is likely just a ploy by the owners as a bargaining chip, but that also doesn’t mean I am buying in on McNeil either. McNeil hit just four home runs and went 0-for-2 in stolen base attempts in 2020. His exit velocity was in the 16 percentile of the league and his hard hit and barrel percentages were both in the bottom 10 percentile of the league as well. It is great that he doesn’t strike out, but he isn’t playing like much more than a bench bat and paying a top 100 price isn’t prudent.  


Top 100 Players Falling



Top 200 Players Rising

Dylan Moore (+22.89)- Moore has been one of the biggest risers at the second base position. Moore started the season hot, hitting .282/.364/.538 with five home runs and six stolen bases before ending up on the IL after just 21 games. While many probably expect him to turn back into a pumpkin, he came back from the IL in September and continued to show some pop and steal bases. However, he did struggle in the batting average department, hitting just .220. So, who is the real Dylan Moore? He definitely can swipe bags and there is at least league average power, but his struggles versus right-handed pitching could come back to bite him as he only has two months in his career where he has hit better than .241 against them. If his ADP keeps rising, he becomes a harder player to draft. 


Jean Segura (+19.1)- Segura moved up quite a bit in the ADP over the month of November, but there isn’t an obvious reason as to why. He had a career high strikeout rate and his StatCast data isn’t very exciting either outside of his sprint speed, but that hasn’t translated into stolen bases. It may be name value more than anything. 


Top 200 Players Falling

Jose Altuve (-10.3)- Altuve, like many of the Astros, struggled during much of the regular season. He had only five home runs and two stolen bases and had a career worst batting average and on base percentage. On the bright side, he was amazing offensively in the postseason, hitting five homers with a .375/.500/.720 triple slash in just 60 plate appearances. I feel like if the season was longer, he would have bounced back and hopefully the playoffs are an indication of that. It helps that there was so much attention paid to his defensive miscues that his offensive resurgence is being ignored. 


Jonathan Villar (-11.27)- It appears that Villar may be the Lucy of fantasy baseball and fantasy players are the Charlie Brown. Villar’s amazing 2019 led many to believe that paying a third round price tag coming into 2020 was a decent bargain, however that football was pulled away and we fell flat on our backs again when he hit .232 and only hit two home runs. The 16 stolen bases was fantastic, but it came at a price. He is a free agent so it is hard to gauge what his value will be until we know what his role is. 


Tommy Edman (-11.29)- Edman was unable to build on his breakout season in 2019 this year, hitting just .250 with five home runs in 227 plate appearances. Worse, he was just 2-for-6 on the basepaths. On the bright side, he was an everyday player in a season in which the Cardinals played 11 double headers. I love his positional eligibility at 2B, 3B, SS, and OF. Edman is an example of a player that I will give a pass to for his 2020 season considering what the team went through and hope that the stolen bases and average return a bit. 


Top 300 Players Rising

Andres Gimenez (+8.97)- Gimenez was already rising before the Cano suspension, so I would expect him to continue to climb and unlike McNeil, I am buying in on it. He is triple eligible at 2B, SS, and 3B and hit three home runs and stole eight bases in just 132 plate appearances. His StatCast data isn’t great, but he could be a 10/20 kind of guy with a palatable average on a team that has a pretty good offense. 


Chris Taylor (+18)- Taylor is often overlooked in fantasy, but he has been a steady contributor when given the playing time. He got that in 2020 and hit .270/.366/.476 with eight home runs and three stolen bases. With Enrique Hernandez and Justin Turner hitting free agency and Gavin Lux not getting much playing time, it seems like Taylor is in line for another full time role again in 2021. 


Ryan McMahon (+15.91)- See the last piece in the series on first basemen. 


Wilmer Flores (+47.23)- See the last piece in the series on first basemen. 


Top 300 Players Falling

Gavin Lux (-53.21)- Lux is a former top prospect and he is being shunned by fantasy

 players after a disappointing season. That is not to say he doesn’t deserve it. Lux hit .175/.246/.349 with three home runs and a stolen base. The Dodgers told us exactly how they felt about him when they gave him a grand total of one at bat in the playoffs. With Justin Turner and Enrique Hernandez hitting the open market, there is an opportunity, but I think most people expect one or more of those players will be re-signed by the Dodgers and there is a real chance Lux goes back to the minors to work on things. There is still a ton of upside and the farther he drops the more likely I will take the lottery ticket because I am not ready to completely give up on him. 

November ADP Market Report: Second Basemen
11/1/2020-11/30/2020 Player Team Position(s) 10/1/2020-10/31/2020 Change
26.59 DJ LeMahieu NYY 1B, 2B, 3B 28.75 2.16
31.63 Ozzie Albies ATL 2B 26.75 -4.88
42.26 Whit Merrifield KC 2B, OF 47.5 5.24
55.41 Cavan Biggio TOR 2B, 3B, OF 57 1.59
65.7 Keston Hiura MLW 2B 74 8.3
70.78 Brandon Lowe TB 2B, OF 81 10.22
90.78 Ketel Marte ARZ 2B 88.25 -2.53
97.52 Max Muncy LAD 1B, 2B, 3B 104 6.48
97.7 Jeff McNeil NYM 2B, 3B, OF 109.25 11.55
109.3 Jose Altuve HOU 2B 99 -10.3
113.11 Dylan Moore SEA 2B, OF 136 22.89
128.96 Mike Moustakas CIN 1B, 2B 133.25 4.29
130.52 Jonathan Villar TOR 2B, SS 119.25 -11.27
145.04 Tommy Edman STL 2B, 3B, SS, OF 133.75 -11.29
157.81 Jake Cronenworth SD 1B, 2B, SS 160.75 2.94
175.07 Nick Solak TEX 2B, OF 178.25 3.18
192.7 Nick Madrigal CWS 2B 190 -2.7
198.15 Jean Segura PHI 2B, 3B 217.25 19.1
207.48 Jurickson Profar SD 2B, OF 194.75 -12.73
213.96 Gavin Lux LAD 2B 160.75 -53.21
214.78 Andres Gimenez NYM 2B, 3B, SS 223.75 8.97
219.74 David Fletcher LAA 2B, 3B, SS 221.25 1.51
232 Chris Taylor LAD 2B, SS, OF 250 18
248.15 Jon Berti MIA 2B, OF 249 0.85
255.59 Ryan McMahon COL 1B, 2B, 3B 271.5 15.91
264.3 Garrett Hampson COL 2B, OF 260.25 -4.05
293.52 Wilmer Flores SF 1B, 2B 340.75 47.23
300.41 Tommy La Stella OAK 1B, 2B 278.75 -21.66
309.78 Joey Wendle TB 2B, 3B, SS 323.75 13.97
311.37 Mauricio Dubon SF 2B, SS, OF 347.5 36.13
328.74 Ty France SEA 2B 359.75 31.01
334.7 Scott Kingery PHI 2B, OF 271 -63.7
342.37 Cesar Hernandez CLE 2B 312 -30.37
355.22 Starlin Castro WAS 2B 346 -9.22
363.37 Luis Arraez MIN 2B 363.25 -0.12
365.56 Jonathan Schoop DET 2B 348 -17.56
389.37 Michael Chavis BOS 1B, 2B, OF 372 -17.37
393.67 Hanser Alberto BAL 2B 388.25 -5.42
397.33 Kolten Wong STL 2B 395.25 -2.08
401.96 Luis Urias MLW 2B, 3B, SS 394 -7.96
419.7 Jazz Chisholm MIA 2B, SS 404 -15.7
425.3 Mike Brosseau TB 1B, 2B, 3B 440.5 15.2
434.22 Niko Goodrum DET 2B, SS 430.5 -3.72
460.74 Rougned Odor TEX 2B 430.5 -30.24
461.96 Nico Hoerner CHC 2B, SS 500 38.04
464.63 Luis Garcia WAS 2B 445.25 -19.38
467.04 Donovan Solano SF 2B 468.5 1.46
478.33 Marwin Gonzalez MIN 1B, 2B, 3B, OF 471.75 -6.58
482.44 Robinson Cano NYM 2B 268 -214.44
486.19 Brendan Rodgers COL 2B 483.5 -2.69
497.67 Vidal Brujan TB 2B 452.5 -45.17
498.81 Adam Frazier PIT 2B, OF 498.75 -0.06
505.33 Kevin Newman PIT 2B, SS 503.5 -1.83
542.67 David Bote CHC 2B, 3B 576.75 34.08
547.26 Kike Hernandez LAD 2B, OF 560.5 13.24
550.33 Pat Valaika BAL 1B, 2B, SS 575 24.67
564.37 Chad Pinder OAK 2B, 3B 577 12.63
583.7 Freddy Galvis CIN 2B, SS 580 -3.7
623 Isan Diaz MIA 2B 675.5 52.5
625.48 Josh Rojas ARZ 2B 622.25 -3.23
633.67 Shed Long Jr. SEA 2B 630.5 -3.17
673.37 Christian Arroyo BOS 2B 677.5 4.13
673.96 Josh Harrison WAS 2B, 3B 657.75 -16.21
681.19 Tyler Wade NYY 2B, SS 723.25 42.06
690.3 Nicky Lopez KC 2B 716 25.7
698.59 Johan Camargo ATL 2B, 3B 683.25 -15.34
701.52 Aledmys Diaz HOU 2B 659.25 -42.27
717.52 Dee Strange-Gordon SEA 2B, OF 743.25 25.73
720.07 Josh VanMeter ARZ 2B NA NA
720.67 Chris Owings COL 2B 728.5 7.83
728.41 Franklin Barreto LAA 2B NA NA
728.81 Scooter Gennett SF 2B NA NA
734.3 Joe Panik TOR 2B, 3B, SS 720.25 -14.05
736.56 Luis Rengifo LAA 2B 746.25 9.69
742.22 Danny Mendick CWS 2B NA NA
742.41 Tony Kemp OAK 2B 726.25 -16.16
743.59 Andy Young ARZ 2B NA NA
744.67 Jahmai Jones LAA 2B NA NA
746.67 Jonathan Arauz BOS 2B 696.5 -50.17
747.52 Luis Guillorme NYM 2B NA NA
747.93 Jose Peraza BOS 2B 717.5 -30.43
748.78 Kyle Farmer CIN 2B, SS NA NA
749.3 Eric Sogard MLW 2B, 3B, SS 735.5 -13.8
749.96 Breyvic Valera TOR 2B NA NA
750.33 Travis Blankenhorn MIN 2B 744.5 -5.83

Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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Joe Wilkeymember
3 years ago

I’m so out on McNeil. His walk rate makes no sense with his plate discipline profile, his strikeout rate probably won’t be that low for a full season (it’ll still be good, but probably not 12% good), and his Statcast/speed numbers don’t back up a .335 BABIP. Give him even a .310 BABIP, 8% BB rate, and a 15% K rate, and he’s a .276/.335/.417 hitter, which is basically 2020 Jean Segura. I’ll pass at his price.

3 years ago
Reply to  Joe Wilkey

Statcast/speed number may not back up a .335 BABIP, but .335 is actually the lowest he’s posted in 3 major league samples of 200+ PA. In the minors, he regularly had a BABIP at or above .350. So, he may just be a guy who outperforms BABIP projections. And the only time he has ever put up a K rate over 13.2% was over a small sample in A+ in 2017- so, I wouldn’t project that at 15% with much confidence. Also, from someone who watched most of his games: he was clearly pressing in the first month of a weird, abbreviated season in 2020; but he closed with an OPS of .998 in Sept/Oct (second half of the season, basically). If you’re looking for a lot of HR & steals, he may not be your guy, but projecting him at .276/.335/.417 feels like a wild underestimation.

Joe Wilkeymember
3 years ago

I’m not saying that’s a projection, all I’m saying is a minor change in his skill set results in a major reduction in his output. High contact, low power guys are very sensitive to changes in the “luck” metrics and plate discipline. For example (starting from .311/.383/.454):

Only reducing BABIP to .310: .284/.359/.426
Only increasing K% to 15%: .295/.368/.437

While we’re talking about career numbers, his walk rate was a full three points higher than his career best, and his ISO from 2019 was 70 points higher than his other two seasons.

McNeil is fine as a late round BA boost, but I’d much rather give up 30 points of SLG and take David Fletcher 120 picks later.

3 years ago
Reply to  Joe Wilkey

If someone has consistently produced a certain number, at what point do you stop ascribing it to luck? If a BABIP of .310 and K rate of 15% are both below his historical numbers, then to me those numbers represent bad luck, and are probably close to his floor. Combining both to create the triple slash in your original post just feels wildly pessimistic. I’m totally sympathetic to the idea that HR and SB are more valuable in the fantasy game, and that McNeil may be being drafted too high- but you projected an OPS of .752 when his career low in 3 seasons is .836. You compare him to 2020 Jean Segura, who put up an OPS+ of 106; McNeil’s career worst is 131. All I’m suggesting is that your numbers look a bit DebbieDownerish.

3 years ago

this is what using expected does to players. These statistics are definitely what he earned, the rest that is above is some other not-realized contribution. All it is a floor without luck. You think DJ LeMahieu didn’t vastly underperform his stats, because he of course did…