November ADP Market Report: Second Basemen

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising

Brandon Lowe (+10.22.)- I think people are just now beginning to appreciate what Lowe can do. In three seasons, he has 37 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 699 plate appearances and 2020 was the first year he was a full time player. The playing time should be secure now and his price isn’t obscene yet because of his disastrous postseason. His 2B/OF dual eligibility is a nice bonus as well. 

 

Jeff McNeil (+11.55)- It seems like McNeil is getting a bit of boost after the Cano suspension which may regress back with the news that the NL teams are preparing to not have the DH in 2021. Personally, I don’t believe that pitchers will be hitting in 2021 as it is likely just a ploy by the owners as a bargaining chip, but that also doesn’t mean I am buying in on McNeil either. McNeil hit just four home runs and went 0-for-2 in stolen base attempts in 2020. His exit velocity was in the 16 percentile of the league and his hard hit and barrel percentages were both in the bottom 10 percentile of the league as well. It is great that he doesn’t strike out, but he isn’t playing like much more than a bench bat and paying a top 100 price isn’t prudent.  

 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Dylan Moore (+22.89)- Moore has been one of the biggest risers at the second base position. Moore started the season hot, hitting .282/.364/.538 with five home runs and six stolen bases before ending up on the IL after just 21 games. While many probably expect him to turn back into a pumpkin, he came back from the IL in September and continued to show some pop and steal bases. However, he did struggle in the batting average department, hitting just .220. So, who is the real Dylan Moore? He definitely can swipe bags and there is at least league average power, but his struggles versus right-handed pitching could come back to bite him as he only has two months in his career where he has hit better than .241 against them. If his ADP keeps rising, he becomes a harder player to draft. 

 

Jean Segura (+19.1)- Segura moved up quite a bit in the ADP over the month of November, but there isn’t an obvious reason as to why. He had a career high strikeout rate and his StatCast data isn’t very exciting either outside of his sprint speed, but that hasn’t translated into stolen bases. It may be name value more than anything. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Jose Altuve (-10.3)- Altuve, like many of the Astros, struggled during much of the regular season. He had only five home runs and two stolen bases and had a career worst batting average and on base percentage. On the bright side, he was amazing offensively in the postseason, hitting five homers with a .375/.500/.720 triple slash in just 60 plate appearances. I feel like if the season was longer, he would have bounced back and hopefully the playoffs are an indication of that. It helps that there was so much attention paid to his defensive miscues that his offensive resurgence is being ignored. 

 

Jonathan Villar (-11.27)- It appears that Villar may be the Lucy of fantasy baseball and fantasy players are the Charlie Brown. Villar’s amazing 2019 led many to believe that paying a third round price tag coming into 2020 was a decent bargain, however that football was pulled away and we fell flat on our backs again when he hit .232 and only hit two home runs. The 16 stolen bases was fantastic, but it came at a price. He is a free agent so it is hard to gauge what his value will be until we know what his role is. 

 

Tommy Edman (-11.29)- Edman was unable to build on his breakout season in 2019 this year, hitting just .250 with five home runs in 227 plate appearances. Worse, he was just 2-for-6 on the basepaths. On the bright side, he was an everyday player in a season in which the Cardinals played 11 double headers. I love his positional eligibility at 2B, 3B, SS, and OF. Edman is an example of a player that I will give a pass to for his 2020 season considering what the team went through and hope that the stolen bases and average return a bit. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Andres Gimenez (+8.97)- Gimenez was already rising before the Cano suspension, so I would expect him to continue to climb and unlike McNeil, I am buying in on it. He is triple eligible at 2B, SS, and 3B and hit three home runs and stole eight bases in just 132 plate appearances. His StatCast data isn’t great, but he could be a 10/20 kind of guy with a palatable average on a team that has a pretty good offense. 

 

Chris Taylor (+18)- Taylor is often overlooked in fantasy, but he has been a steady contributor when given the playing time. He got that in 2020 and hit .270/.366/.476 with eight home runs and three stolen bases. With Enrique Hernandez and Justin Turner hitting free agency and Gavin Lux not getting much playing time, it seems like Taylor is in line for another full time role again in 2021. 

 

Ryan McMahon (+15.91)- See the last piece in the series on first basemen. 

 

Wilmer Flores (+47.23)- See the last piece in the series on first basemen. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Gavin Lux (-53.21)- Lux is a former top prospect and he is being shunned by fantasy

 players after a disappointing season. That is not to say he doesn’t deserve it. Lux hit .175/.246/.349 with three home runs and a stolen base. The Dodgers told us exactly how they felt about him when they gave him a grand total of one at bat in the playoffs. With Justin Turner and Enrique Hernandez hitting the open market, there is an opportunity, but I think most people expect one or more of those players will be re-signed by the Dodgers and there is a real chance Lux goes back to the minors to work on things. There is still a ton of upside and the farther he drops the more likely I will take the lottery ticket because I am not ready to completely give up on him.