November ADP Market Report: Catchers

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising
Salvador Perez (+18.67)- Perez was fantastic in only 37 games played due to an eye infection, popping 11 home runs and hitting .333. He had a depressed price coming into 2020 due to missing all of 2019, but that is long gone now as he is the second catcher off the board with an ADP of 82.59. He is one of four catchers that steamer projects to have 500+ plate appearances and the only catcher they project to have more than 25 home runs. It would not be surprising to see him continue to climb up the ADP.

Top 100 Players Falling
None

Top 200 Players Rising
Will Smith (+13.4)- Smith is moving towards being a top 100 player according to ADP and it is a bit surprising he didn’t start there considering how fantasy players tend to push up young talent. He led all catchers with at least 100 plate appearances in wRC+ and swatted eight home runs in 37 games plus another two in the playoffs. He should continue to climb up the ADP, especially in 2-catcher formats.

Daulton Varsho (+27.54)- Varsho has moved up more than any other player in the 300, but it is a bit deceiving. Varsho was taken 31st overall in a draft (10 spots ahead of Realmuto in the same draft) which has affected his ADP. His ADP for November before that draft was 196.26 and since it has been 168.33, which means if you take out that draft, his ADP would be about 189.56. So, while he is moving up quite a bit in drafts, part of that is somewhat influenced by people reacting to the ADP fluctuation created by that one early pick. It will be interesting to see whether his ADP will continue to climb or it levels off or drops back down.

Top 200 Players Falling
None

Top 300 Players Rising
James McCann (+20.87)- McCann is a free agent so not knowing his team may have initially hurt his value in drafts. However, no matter where he signs, he is likely to garner more playing time than he has had being behind Yasmani Grandal. McCann actually had the fourth best wRC+ of all catchers in 2020 with at least 100 plate appearances and was ninth on that list with at least 300 plate appearances.

Yadier Molina (+25.13)- It is hard to understand why Molina is trending up other than possibly name value. Molina struggled for the second straight season, hitting only four home runs in 42 games and posting his worst OBP since 2006. His StatCast date was even worse, with his exit velocity, barrel percentage, and hard hit percentage being among the worst in the entire league. He is a free agent and it wouldn’t be surprising if he ended up retiring if the Cardinals aren’t willing to bring him back on a one year deal.

Carson Kelly (+22.87)- This is another interesting riser. Kelly followed up his breakout season by disappointing in the short 2020 season. He hit only five home runs and posted a .221/.264/.395 triple slash. His StatCast data isn’t any better, with his exit velocity dropping almost three miles per hour and his barrel percentage being cut in half. With Daulton Varsho now up and Stephen Vogt under contract still, there is no reason to think he will be getting the majority of the work behind the plate if something doesn’t change.

Top 300 Players Falling
Buster Posey (-23.06)- It is not surprising that Posey is continuing to drop after opting out of the 2020 season. Posey and his wife adopted twins that were born premature and in order to keep safe he made the decision not to play. There is a chance he could opt out again if things don’t improve in the world in 2021. That being said, if he does play, he could be a nice cheap C2 that would likely play every day if the NL gets the DH again as we expect, though the upside would be limited as he hasn’t hit more than seven home runs since 2017 and only has two 20+ homer seasons in his entire career (2012, 2014.)

 

November ADP Market Report: Catchers
11/1/2020-11/30/2020 ADP Player Position(s) 10/1/2020-10/31/2020 ADP Change
38.15 J.T. Realmuto C 38.25 0.1
82.58 Salvador Perez C 101.25 18.67
109.35 Will Smith C 122.75 13.4
136.04 Willson Contreras C 136.5 0.46
142.73 Yasmani Grandal C 146.75 4.02
148.92 Travis d’Arnaud C 156.5 7.58
162.31 Christian Vazquez C 159 -3.31
168.27 Austin Nola C 165.25 -3.02
171.23 Sean Murphy C 171.5 0.27
183.46 Daulton Varsho C, OF 211 27.54
196.62 Gary Sanchez C 194 -2.62
226.88 James McCann C 247.75 20.87
242.31 Mitch Garver C 236.75 -5.56
246.31 Jorge Alfaro C 246.75 0.44
279.81 Buster Posey C 256.75 -23.06
281.12 Yadier Molina C 306.25 25.13
289.12 Joey Bart C 295.75 6.63
295.38 Carson Kelly C 318.25 22.87
309.15 Pedro Severino C 280.75 -28.4
322.58 Tom Murphy C 353.5 30.92
327.38 Wilson Ramos C 356.5 29.12
330.81 Danny Jansen C 293 -37.81
344.19 Ryan Jeffers C 311.25 -32.94
353.5 Sam Huff C 350.25 -3.25
358.27 Alejandro Kirk C 376.75 18.48
359.12 Max Stassi C 356.5 -2.62
362.12 Jacob Stallings C 382.5 20.38
362.96 Tyler Stephenson C 350.25 -12.71
365.35 Yan Gomes C 346.5 -18.85
367.92 Omar Narvaez C 385.25 17.33
383.96 Adley Rutschman C 390.75 6.79
439.42 Martin Maldonado C 416 -23.42
445.27 Victor Caratini C 447.5 2.23
454.88 Roberto Perez C 457.5 2.62
456.81 Kyle Higashioka C 407.25 -49.56
460.77 Kurt Suzuki C 462 1.23
483.38 Luis Torrens C 439 -44.38
490 Tucker Barnhart C 519.25 29.25
493.73 Austin Barnes C 498 4.27
500.85 Andrew Knizner C 617.5 116.65
506.65 Austin Romine C 480 -26.65
513.31 Jose Trevino C 507.25 -6.06
525.85 Chance Sisco C 482.75 -43.1
567.35 Andrew Knapp C 601.25 33.9
575.92 Francisco Mejia C 593.5 17.58
590.35 Jacob Nottingham C 508.75 -81.6
597.31 Keibert Ruiz C 657.5 60.19
612.12 Curt Casali C 516.5 -95.62
613.12 Kevin Plawecki C 629.75 16.63
623.08 Jason Castro C 630.25 7.17
628.31 Mike Zunino C 576.5 -51.81
666.73 Willians Astudillo C 625.75 -40.98
672.62 Elias Diaz C 661 -11.62
684.27 Jonah Heim C 651.5 -32.77
696.92 Austin Hedges C 589.25 -107.67
699.08 William Contreras C 712 12.92
711.65 Jake Rogers C 718.75 7.1
712.92 Tyler Flowers C 731.5 18.58
717.42 Tony Wolters C 695.5 -21.92
722.58 Ronaldo Hernandez C NA NA
727.42 Robinson Chirinos C 715 -12.42
727.81 Cam Gallagher C 706.75 -21.06
731.5 Kevan Smith C 730.25 -1.25
734.19 Cal Raleigh C 695.25 -38.94
736.69 Austin Allen C 724.25 -12.44
737.69 Alex Jackson C NA NA
739.46 Tomas Nido C NA NA
740.31 Matt Wieters C NA NA
741.58 Stephen Vogt C 741.25 -0.33
744.73 Chadwick Tromp C 713.5 -31.23
745.19 Anthony Bemboom C NA NA
746.69 Michael Perez C 742 -4.69
748.04 Eric Haase C NA NA
748.23 Manny Pina C 735 -13.23
749.85 Deivy Grullon C NA NA
750.62 Alex Avila C NA NA
SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball





Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as random topics that float into his juvenile brain. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, and a fantasy football and baseball writer for Fantasy Alarm. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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nickfox45
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nickfox45

“Perez was fantastic in only 37 games played due to an eye infection…”

It’ll be interesting to see if other players who get eye infections also perform better than usual. 😉

Edited: Snark aside, I really like this series idea and am looking forward to seeing the rest for other positions.