Nicklaus Gaut’s 2023 Outfielder Ranks

We’ve now covered my ranks at catcher, first base, second base, third base, and shortstop, before making a stop in Splitsville last week. Let’s close our hitters out – time to hit that grass.

It’s not that the outfielders are shallow by talent but depending on your league and roster size, eventually, you’ll reach a cliff past which full-time players are few and far between. Full and part platoons start wreaking havoc on projecting final production, and while some part-timers will still end up with enough playing time to be fantasy-viable, trying to properly judge their value from week to week may be a fantasy headache some managers just may not want.

In 10-team leagues and below and 12-team leagues with (3) OF slots, you likely won’t feel a pinch. But in 12-teamers with (5) OF slots, and any leagues deeper, full-time jobs in the outfield are going to dry up sooner than you think. Plan accordingly by knowing thy self. If you don’t mind trolling the wire and knowing the schedule well enough to know when it’s a good idea to swap in the Trayce Thompsons and TJ Friedls of the world, you might want to push outfielders some in your roster building. But if you’re more of the “set it and forget it” type, I’d suggest making sure you’ve got your starters locked up early.

Okay, enough – it’s rank-thirty. We’ll start with how everyone performed in 2022. Here were the top 110 outfielders by rank, along with ADP data from 2022 and 2023. Values are calculated for a 12-team league and ADP is from NFBC (n=30):

And here are the same top 110 from above, this time with their 5×5 roto stats, by half and for the full season:

One more note before we get to my personal ranks. Many of the initial projections have not yet baked in what the rule changes will do to stolen bases and batting average. If my projections look different from others in these categories, this is probably near the root. Look me in the eyes – right here. Those changes are coming and they will shift values. For those drafting now, there are edges to be found before the market adjusts.

Enough of all that jazz. Actually, a little more Jazz. You’ll notice Jazz Chisholm Jr. included, as the Marlins are apparently happy to have him man centerfield in 2023. So, even though he won’t gain eligibility for 10 games on most platforms, I decided to go ahead and get out in front of any “so, where would Jazz rank on here” questions.

Okay, now that’s enough of all that – here are my current OF projections, followed by all of the total tiers you’re used to normally. There is a sortable table at the end.

Tier: Will the Real Tyler O’Neill Please Step Forward?

Tyler O’Neill, STL (103 ADP, min: 61, max: 143)

Will it be last year, two years ago, or somewhere in between?

Did O’Neill just regress back to the same Tyler we knew prior to his 2021 breakout? Or was it more about being injured while also sprinkling in some batted-ball bad luck?

Looking at his per-PA roto rates from 2021 and 2022, the O’Neill we saw in the second half of the latter, looked a lot more like the one we saw from the former:

And while his .286 AVG (.366 BABIP) from 2021 always felt above his pay grade, a .228 AVG in 2022 also felt undeserved. And a .277 BABIP that was 60 points lower than his career average entering the season certainly did him no favors.

O’Neill’s true fantasy calling card was his power, however, and a closer look tells much of the same story as above. A rotten first half followed by a second half that looked more like 2021:

O’Neill dealt with injuries to his shoulder, wrist, and two different hamstring injuries but in a healthy second half (at least until it ended in mid-September), O’Neill’s per-PA roto rates and high-end exit velocities jumped right back up to near where they were in 2021. And in health, lies the rub. The downside is clear but the upside is that if he collects somewhere near 550 PA, in what looks to be an excellent St. Louis offense, O’Neill is a top 20 OF and an easy bargain at his current price.

Tier: The Arizona Issue

Corbin Carroll, ARI (83 ADP, min: 49, max: 156)

You can’t help but love the fantasy-friendly skill set that Corbin Carroll brings to the table and I’m projecting the homers and stolen bases to both come in around as expected. And with the trade of Dalton Varsho, the lineup has gotten a lot less crowded. But the differences between failing, meeting, and exceeding his cost might come down to his teammates.

Given the current state of the bottom of Arizona’s lineup, you’d have to squint re-eally hard to imagine Carroll’s RBI total to earn much categorical gravy for you. However, the ones coming behind him who can most move his Run total, also come with big questions. Will Ketel ever get off the rocks? Can Jake McCarthy and Christian Walker replicate their 2022 breakouts? If they do, Carroll could blow past 80 runs and be a fantasy force. But if they don’t, a sub-70 runs total will be a drag on his ultimate ROI.

Tier: Bounceback Fever?

Nick Castellanos, PHI (126 ADP, min: 88, max: 156)

The best thing about buying back in on Nick Castellanos is the draft-day discount, with my fellow Nick averaging around a 50-pick drop compared to last season. For that price (and in that home park), I’m willing to chance that Castellanos won’t again post roto rates that were his worst since the early Detroit years. And even with those rough numbers, Castellanos still finished as a top 50 OF in 12-team leagues. That’s not what you’re banking on from a top-20 OF draft price but it’s also not hot garbage.

Castellanos’s power outage was the source of much of his fantasy woes but he, at least, did increase from .021 HR per PA to .028 HR/PA in the second half. It probably wasn’t a coincidence that he increased from a 10% HR/FB* in the first half to a 15% HR/FB in the second half. But even with the increase, a 12% HR/FB for the season was a far cry from 28%, 31%, and 20% for the past three seasons.

*Again, this is calculated without IFFB, so the numbers will be different than here at FanGraphs (1st half: 8.2%, 2nd half: 9.4%)

He doesn’t have to get back to hitting 30+ HR to pull a good ROI; getting near 25 HR will do it, especially baking in a little batting average bump he should see from the new shift rules. That’s an easy bet to make at his current cost.

Tier: Don’t Be Yandy Díaz, Don’t Be Yandy Díaz, Don’t Be Yandy Diaz

Oscar Gonzalez, CLE (176 ADP, min: 138, max: 204)

I want Oscar Gonzalez to be fantasy gold; I really do. To believe that his second-half power surge (.015 HR per PA to .036 HR per PA) signaled more power to come in 2023, pairing a high batting average with 20+ HR potential and good R+RBI possibilities on an offense on the rise. But that power surge came with a doubling of his HR/FB rate, while a 20% FB% (IFFB not included), though up from 16% FB%, stayed in the league basement. And while his Brl% and Brl per PA also rose in the second half, his Air% EV and Air% (100+ mph) both dropped significantly.

Gonzalez’s plate discipline also leaves a lot to be desired. A 20% K% in 2022 was below average but a 16% SwStr% that stayed steady from half to half says a big sniff of whiff regression is headed downwind. Checking out his swing rates by zone doesn’t bring any more confidence. His zSwing% dropped four points in the second half, while his Chase% increased by six points. His 34 zSwing% – oSwing% in the first half was already well below average but dropping 10 points in the second half put him in a whole new tier of awful – of qualified hitters in the second half, only Javier Baez was worse.

I was totally prepared to scoop a lot of Oscar but his draft price is far more aggressive than I anticipated, especially with those pitch selection issues. My shares will still be there but they’ll likely be quite spare.

Tier: So, You’ve Decided to Punt Power

Jake McCarthy, ARI (124 ADP, min: 83, max: 163)

Jeff McNeil, NYM (180 ADP, min: 137, max: 240)

Steven Kwan, CLE (119 ADP, min: 137, max: 146)

Two of these players are on good or up-and-coming offenses. And the other is Jake McCarthy. Not only does the speedy McCarthy have the same fantasy issues as his teammate Carroll above (RE: Arizona offense) but I expect the SB calling card that drives much of his value will be cheapened by the influx of stolen bases coming due to the rule changes.

McCarthy won a lot of fantasy leagues for players last season but his price (and skillset) likely keeps him off of my board.

I suppose Jeff McNeil could find his way onto my roster in drafts where he falls closer to his max ADP but his average, let alone minimum (#137? Really?), is going to be far too rich for me. While I am a fan of getting secondary pieces from what I expect to be a really good Mets offense, McNeil’s average-driven fantasy profile won’t be worth as much in a no-shift world.

Many others have said it but it bears repeating; don’t pay a premium today for last year’s production.

Steven Kwan will come with even fewer dongs than the McTwins above and also gets a lot of his fantasy value from what I think will be depressed assets (AVG + SB) under the new rules. The difference is that Kwan, while not as high in either category as one of the other two, is a plus contributor in both categories, not just one.

Along with a spot at the top of a good Cleveland lineup, that makes Kwan my favorite among the HR-challenged options, if wanting to travel along that build.

Little Name Lotto Tickets

Jose Siri, TB (345 ADP, min: 258, max: 417)

Stone Garrett, WSH (644 ADP, min: 405, max: 584)

If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it at least eight other times – Tampa Bay hates your team and Kevin Cash wants nothing more than to happily come-a reaping and dance on our fantasy graves. And yet, here I am, well above the market on Jose Siri. You’re a fool, Nicklaus! A fool!

There are exciting fantasy parts under the hood, though. Siri’s sprint speed is in the 100th percentile and he picked up 14 SB in just 325 PA last season, and while 7 HR over the same span isn’t overly impressive, you can at least dream of 15 HR potential.

But besides those sexy counting stats, there is a big problem. Like, is he actually a good hitter? Siri slashed just .225/.278/.375 over 325 PA in 2022, with just a .268 wOBA and 75 wRC+. He was pretty bad vs RHP (.232/.283/.371, .288 wOBA, 30% K%) but was just plain rotten vs LHP (.156/.224/.247, .213 wOBA, 43.5% K%). Obviously, the Rays will not put up with this sort of ineptness and Siri is destined for a bench role until ultimately getting traded to Pittsburgh.

But not so fast! As in, “being so fast makes Siri a plus-plus centerfielder“. And if there’s one thing that Tampa Bay has proven, it’s that they’re willing to overlook a lot of offensive shortcomings in the name of playing an elite centerfielder.

Siri will likely be a batting average sink but his counting stats potential could be worth the dart if his glove keeps him in a big role.

Okay, so I have a soft spot for Stone Garrett, whose physical skills make it hard for me not to dream of his ROI possibilities being more malleable than what his steely ADP is telling me.

Sure, the now 27-year-old only just made it to the big leagues last season, and once he did, did a whole lot of whiffing (32% K%, 17% SwStr%) and not much walking (3.6% BB%). But over a very tiny 84 PA sample, Garrett did the most he could with his cup of coffee, slashing .276/.309/.539, with  4 HR, 13 R, 10 RBI, and 3 SB. And that was after a terrific Triple-A campaign, with 28 HR and 15 SB in just 440 PA.

And then he was promptly designated for assignment. But that’s a good thing, right? Garrett had no real chance to start in what was a crowded Arizona outfield, while Washington is populated with the likes of Lane Thomas and Corey Dickerson. I’m counting it as a win.

The most likely outcome is that Garrett is a fill-in fourth outfielder who mostly bats vs LHP. But hey, a guy can dream, right? Mine are just filled with Statcast lollipops in nothing but red – “la-la-lah, K%, la-la-lah, I can’t hear you”.

Tier: Quick Hit Prove-Its

Prove your health hasn’t been compromised by a balky back and plantar fasciitis, Kris Bryant. He might not be that old (31) in baseball-years and plays in the best offensive park in MLB but Bryant only played 42 games last year, with the missed time coming due to two of the more notorious injuries there are for sucking away health and production.

Prove you can rack 500 PAs AND a .250 AVG in the same season, Giancarlo Stanton. If you do, your 30+ HR will make a 142 ADP a bargain. Or, you’ll sneeze one day, causing one or both of your calves to flat fall right off.

Prove that somewhere, anywhere, there is a shred of what you once were, still hiding in your soul, Cody Bellinger. In a hitter-friendly park that can play like Coors when the wind is right, Bellinger could, in theory, do some fantasy damage in a sneaky-fun Cubs lineup. Or…Well, never mind. We all know what the “or” is, right?

Prove you really are one of the rare prospects that don’t break out until his late-20s, Joey Meneses. And not just another flash-in-the-pan that inevitably gets exposed by adjusting pitchers.

The skill set (if repeated) is an intriguing one but a .371 BABIP and .267 xBA says regression is about to hammer his .324 AVG way down. As does a 26% HR/FB (never higher than 19% in the minors) say about his home run rates. I still think Meneses could end up being a decent fantasy asset, as Washington will give him every chance to be an everyday player, and thus compile a decent amount of R+RBI. But I’d greatly adjust the expectations set by a 30+ HR pace in 2022.

Prove you still have a full-time job, Gavin Lux. And after that, prove that your skill set will ever actually be fantasy-friendly enough to justify being drafted. Double prove it – Boom!

Prove that I must just be actually bonkers, Brandon Marsh because that’s how your top 300 ADP makes me feel. Just, why? Please? Can someone tell me? Hold on – not so fast, Philly fan. Someone reasonable, please.

Prove your wrist isn’t made of glass, Alex Kirilloff.  If it isn’t and Kirilloff actually plays a full season, he could be one of the draft’s best deals. As a long-time supporter, I really want it to be true but history and surgery(s) aren’t close to being on his side.

Prove you’re not just a platoon bat, Juan Yepez. Right now, the St. Louis offense looks to be popping – but also very full. With the left-handed Nolan Gorman having nowhere to play in the field (and no, “maybe he’ll get better at second base” is not currently being accepted as an answer), Yepez is staring down a short-sided barrel.