Nelson Cruz Joins the Rays

It seems like the Rays always have a logjam of hitters and rotations at most positions, and that has now gotten even more logjammy with their acquisition of DH Nelson Cruz. Cruz hasn’t played in the field since 2018, which means for as long as he is starting, the DH slot is going to be filled. That’s bad news for many of their hitters who will likely see a playing time cut, albeit not a significant one since it will likely be a different player on the bench each day. The logjam is likely to worsen again once Manuel Margot returns from the IL. Alas, this isn’t an article on the rest of the Rays hitters, it’s about Cruz’s move from Minnesota to Tampa. From a strictly ballpark change perspective, how might this switch in home venue affect his performance? Let’s consult the park factors.

Even at age 40, Nelson Cruz continues to go strong. The ageless wonder is sitting on a .376 wOBA, just above his career average, and his lowest strikeout rate since 2010. Seriously?! At some point you have to imagine he’ll start suffering from real age-related decline, but there have barely been any signs of it so far and the Rays certainly don’t think it’s going to happen over the final two months of the season.

However, he is moving to a new ballpark, and we know that park effects are real and could have a serious impact on performance. Cruz is no stranger to switching teams though, as the Rays are the sixth team he’ll be a member of throughout his Major League career. Surprising for a guy who owns a career .371 wOBA! With this latest ballpark move help or hurt his performance, assuming all else is equal?

Let’s begin with the hit type factors. Tropicana Field suppressed singles in 2020, which could be used as a proxy for its effect on BABIP. On the other hand, Target Field slightly boosted singles. The gap between the best and worst singles parks is the narrowest out of all the hit factors, but this gap is meaningful. Cruz owns a career .309 BABIP, but has posted a mark well above .300 in five of the last six years, and a mark of .301 this season. As a power hitter, he’s obviously not as reliant on singles as others, but BABIP factors do affect every hitter. So this is a clear negative, but not a serious one given the hitter Cruz is.

Moving along to doubles factors, we find a much larger gap. Because he hits so many homers, Cruz has never been a big doubles hitter. He has hit as many as 45 in a season, but only over 30 two other times. At this point, he’s basically a mid-20s guy, meaning the doubles factors isn’t going to have much of an impact here. Sure, he might lose one or two, but that’s going to be drowned out by noise anyway.

Next, we move along to triples, which you may have noticed is the only factor Tropicana is more favorable in. Unfortunately, with just 14 triples throughout his entire career, it’s the one factor we truly don’t care about.

Finally, rounding out the hit type factors, and the one fantasy owners are most concerned with, is home runs. In 2020, Tropicana was one of the tougher parks for right-handers to homer in, while Target was slightly better than average. This could have a real effect on Cruz as a guy who has posted a HR/FB rate of at least 20% for nine straight seasons, including this one. Of course, his HR/FB rate right now is at its lowest mark since 2014, so you wonder whether the move to Tropicana could truly push it below 20% for the first time since 2012. Obviously, given the small sample size of home games over the rest of the season, anything could happen. It’s why I mentioned “assuming all else is equal” earlier in the post, because even if Cruz moved to the toughest home run park in baseball, it doesn’t automatically mean his home run rate would plummet. That said, it’s a clear negative here, especially for a guy whose fantasy value is driven by those homers.

We now move along to the plate discipline metrics, strikeouts and walks. For a power hitter, Cruz has rarely struggled with strikeouts, which is part of why he has been so good. Tropicana inflated strikeouts a bit in 2020, while Target was neutral. So that’s another negative, even though Cruz could certainly afford to strike out a bit more. The walk rate factors are almost identical, so there shouldn’t be any park-related changes there.

We now finish with the batted ball type factors. There’s no “good” or “bad” ground ball and fly ball factors, so none are highlighted. The factors are close enough that randomness is going to win in the end, but it’s worth just nothing the slightly lower FB factor at Tropicana, which is a negative for a power hitter who typically posts a higher than league average FB%. The lower LD and higher IFFB% factors at Tropicana match with the lower singles factor as both would hamper BABIP.

I decided to share the 3 year overall park factor, choosing it over the 5 and 1 year marks. They all differed slightly, but figured 1 year over a small sample 2020 was definitely a no-go, while there could have been too many changes to make the 5 year factor as reliable. The 3 year factor tells us what we assumed given the number of factors Tropicana was more favorable in, that it’s a pitcher friendly park, and more so than Target. It’s actually quite surprising to see Target as pitcher friendly given that all but one factor is at 100 or higher. It’s likely because of the mix of time periods, as all the individual factors are from 2020, while the 3 year overall is from 2018-2020.

It’s pretty clear that just from the change in home parks, the move to Tampa is a negative one for Cruz’s fantasy value. The two teams are pretty close in wOBA for the season, but of course the Twins mark includes Cruz, while the Rays mark doesn’t, so that suggests the supporting casts are about the same. I’d say Cruz might lose a homer or two, but there shouldn’t be any panic moves as a result of the trade.