Throwing Heat Week 16

Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”

Brad Keller, KCR

Last three starts: 2.61 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 25.9 K%

Hot dang Brad Keller! Where was this all season? Nope, instead you wanted to make me look like an idiot for telling people to draft you. On the season Keller holds a 5.84 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in 20 starts. Not pretty. 

These last three starts though, that’s a pretty line right there. His strikeout rate on the season sits at 18.7% and in these three starts, it’s at 25.9%. That’s quite the bump. Let’s take a step back for a second and talk about Keller’s pitch mix. He typically throws a slider, sinker, and four-seam. His best pitch is by far his slider because it has produced whiffs, ground balls, and induced weak contact on the season. For the season he has thrown his slider 33.6% of the time but in these starts, he has thrown it 45.6% of the time. Nearly half of his pitches. Because of this pitch mix change, he has bettered his SIERA, K%, K-BB%, GB%, SwStr%, chase rate, WHIP, ERA, HR/9, and Barrel%. You get the point. 

This is the Brad Keller I thought we would see coming into the 2021 season. Add on the attraction of being a workhorse and he made a ton of sense on draft day. Will this work for him moving forward? In these three games, his four-seam and sinker produced a .077 ISO and .394 wOBA whereas from April to July they produced a .239 ISO and .436 wOBA. Overall I think Keller will be better moving forward but not that much better. I’m not sure the fastballs are good enough to propel him to a sub-four ERA the rest of the way. 

Eric Lauer, MIL

Last three starts: 1.04 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 18.1 K%

For some reason it seems like Eric Lauer has been in the majors forever but he has only been up since 2018 and is just 26 years old. Lauer has been consistent at achieving mediocrity in his young career but this season through 10 starts he has a 3.27 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Not to mention that ridiculous line up above. So what gives?

Well for one, his four-seam velocity is up half of a tick from last season. He has added more horizontal movement, which has led to a career-high SwStr% of 12.3% on the pitch. The second thing he did was up his cutter usage. While the cutter doesn’t jump out at you in terms of numbers it creates a ton of deception with his four-seam. They both come out of Lauer’s hand at the same angle but the cutter is slower and has a slight loop to it. 

Lauer is interesting and he is making changes for the better. Between the uptick in velocity, the pitch mix change, and even an increase in active spin it seems like Lauer is on his way to becoming a viable pitcher. You likely will never get a high strikeout rate from him but he is elite in terms of inducing weak contact. He should hover around a high three ERA the rest of the way.

Logan Webb, SFG

Last three starts: 2.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 22.0 K%

In 12 game appearances and 11 starts Logan Webb currently holds a 3.54 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 25.4 K%. So of course, many people want to know if this is legit? On the surface he has a 3.14 FIP, 3.44 xERA, and 3.43 SIERA. The 25.4 K% comes with an 11.6 SwStr% and 30.7 CSW%. He has a slightly above-average walk rate and has always been successful at limiting home runs. All looks good so far.

How about the arsenal? Webb mainly throws a sinker, changeup, slider, and four-seam. The sinker is thrown at 92.7 MPH while the changeup sits at 85.9 MPH which is roughly a 7 MPH difference, okay but not great. The good thing is the changeup creates a ton of chases outside of the zone at a 45.9% rate and the slider induces a ton of whiffs with a 19.9 SwStr%. So he has one pitch that creates chases, one for whiffs, and the sinker induces ground balls. He does hit every aspect you want to see. All besides one, getting whiffs inside the zone. But I think that’s okay with Webb since he gets the ground balls instead. 

I think there is some room for improvement here as well. The slider could be placed a little better in terms of location, sometimes he leaves it in the middle of the zone. If he can do that with the slider that pitch could become even better. He also really struggles against left-handed hitters. Against them, he has a .427 wOBAcon, 5.18 dERA, and a 6.8% barrel rate. This is mainly because the sinker isn’t great against them so he moves onto his four-seam but it isn’t much better. Until he figures out left-handed hitters I don’t see him becoming a very good pitcher. Now that doesn’t mean I don’t think he is good because he is and is a sub-four ERA possible? I would say so. 

Marcus Stroman, NYM

Last three starts: 2.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 22.1K%

Man, Stroman has been unreal this season. He ran into a two start hiccup in July but has since rebounded nicely with most recently dominating the Cincinatti Reds. Overall on the season he holds a 2.58 ERA, 20.6 K%, and 1.08 WHIP. Compared to 2019 Stroman has been throwing the sinker a lot more in 2021 and it seems to be working really well. The weird thing is that he is letting up a lot of hard contact but no damage has been done by it. This could be explained by his high ground ball rate, hitters could be hitting the ball hard but those balls could be going into the ground. It’s hard to scrutinize a pitcher who currently has a career-best ERA and WHIP. Stroman should be just fine moving forward.