Finding Value in Bat Speed Among Young Hitters

Looking back at some of my pieces throughout the year, I thought it would be a good exercise to evaluate how useful some of the strategies and approaches I wrote about were. Bat speed was one area I explored, particularly among younger hitters. While 2026 production alone cannot tell us how well these metrics will predict future success, it can help us identify trends worth tracking heading into 2027.

Bat speed has always been an obvious gateway to success; swinging the bat fast gives a good base to be able to handle velocity and hit the ball hard. While that is not always the case, we have seen an increased emphasis placed on bat speed as a way to raise the floor and ceiling of players. Not everyone can swing the bat like Junior Caminero, but the ability to add bat speed seems to lead to more success. For young hitters, who may struggle with the increasingly imposing level of major league pitching, this can be a good indicator of future success, even if there is a teething period.

In my midseason piece, I looked at how much bat speed can tell us about success for young hitters, and the top of the list made the case: Junior Caminero and Nick Kurtz ranked among the most productive offensive players in baseball, with Jordan Walker not far behind. Bat speed is not the only avenue, as Kevin McGonigle and others also succeeded despite being around league-average. So with a full season of data now in, I wanted to build a more actionable way to use it alongside other metrics to find which young hitters are worth adding, and if there is a way we can maximise bat speed moving forward.

The end-of-season pool of under-25 hitters with at least 200 plate appearances was 76 hitters. From this, I needed to get an idea of just the overall offensive production of the 76 hitters: 37 of 76 (49%) were league average and above, with a wRC+ of 100+. The well-above-average 110+ group was 28, or 37%, and the 120+ group was 14 hitters, or 18%.

Going by a threshold of an above-average bat speed of 73 mph gives 34 hitters, or 45% of the pool. Although the edge is small, 56% of this group has an above-average season from an offensive production standpoint, with a wRC+ of 100+. Going further, 50% were at 110+ and 29% at 120+.

Pairing this bat speed threshold with a strong HardHit% strengthens the case considerably. Of the 16 hitters at 73+ mph with a HardHit% of 46% or higher, 14 (88%) reached a wRC+ of 100+, compared with 49% of all 76 hitters. Twelve (75%) reached 110+, compared with 37% overall. This combination appears to be a useful indicator of production, identifying young hitters who were more likely to produce at an above-average level in 2026.

This is clear in the top right quadrant of the chart below that I have colored blue. They meet both the bat speed and HardHit% thresholds. Every blue dot has a wRC+ above 100.

Bat Speed and Hard Contact

Most of the names in this top right quadrant are established major league stars; however, coming into the season, ten of the group had an ADP outside of the top 50, and eight of them were outside the top 150, so there is value here. Also, following this group, there are some intriguing names we will come to that could provide value in 2027.

I think this is enough to show that we can use bat speed and a strong HardHit% to try to target and project young bats. Jac Caglianone, Bryce Eldridge, and Jordan Walker will all have high stock coming into draft season, and names like Coby Mayo and Henry Bolte, who finished the season strongly, will have done enough to garner intrigue as later-round fliers, well above where they were preseason.

It’s worth noting the two that fell below the 100 wRC+: Alvarez and House both face the same issue in that they have negative run value against all three fastball variations, and they have poor plate discipline. Until they can prove they can be productive against fastballs, and have a more advanced approach at the plate, it might be worth keeping clear until proven otherwise.

From the Outside Looking In

Some names that are close to the zone that are intriguing for 2027 to go through. Tyler Soderstrom, Chase DeLauter, and Carter Jensen would be the three closest to qualifying next and offer different kinds of upside in their own right. Soderstrom is a player I have myself in a keeper league and have been debating if he is worthy of a spot; given his age and profile, I am leaning toward giving him a spot. He has good power potential, and while he does lean more ground-ball heavy, it is not such a bias that warrants concern. In a shortened season, he still managed 26 homers, and while he did chase more, he also made more contact in the zone. He would be a player that could have value in the mid-to-late rounds given his limited playing time in 2026, and only missed the qualifier by less than a single HardHit% point.

Chase DeLauter also narrowly missed the cut-off and will be looking to build on a strong 2026. Given how he started 2026, he ended up being rostered heavily very quickly, and he won’t be that widely available again. Nevertheless, he is an interesting name to keep an eye on. He posted a 46.2% HardHit% and a 131 wRC+, but his 71.5 mph bat speed fell 1.5 mph short of the threshold. He is the only hitter with a HardHit% above 46% who missed the bat-speed cutoff, and his .346 xwOBA supports the case that his production was legitimate. While his bat speed being below average might make him an interesting name to include, he has a high average exit velocity, above 90 mph, putting him in the 84th percentile. Given the uniqueness of his swing, I am not sure how that might affect his ability to increase his bat speed, but given his HardHit% and the well-roundedness of his profile, he is worth highlighting.

Carter Jensen hit 27 home runs with a .467 SLG, backed by his 73.9 mph bat speed and a 44.8% HardHit% (73rd percentile). The power is certainly there, almost hitting 30 bombs this year, but the batting average is the problem: he hit .239 with a .217 xBA, so the contact quality needs to improve. His 28.2% strikeout rate and 29.7% whiff rate are also areas he should improve. If he trims the strikeouts even modestly, the bat speed and hard contact give him a clear path to a higher average while maintaining his power. Given his age and that he has already registered a top 10 fantasy season at the catcher position, he will be in a good spot going into 2027 even if it is a high strikeout, power bat.

Swinging Too Fast

Cam Smith has always been a head-scratcher for anyone tracking bat speed. He possesses one of the fastest swings in the league and the ceiling is tantalizing, but he has not yet put it together and, in fact, regressed in 2026. His OPS did not even end up close to what would have been a disappointing .700, ending at .669, and his batting average also barely cleared .200. While he swings fast and his MaxEV is very high at 114 mph, his average EV sits around 88 mph; paired with middling HardHit% and too many groundballs, it means he is not tapping into his swing. 2027 will be a pivotal year for Smith as he looks to establish himself on an Astros team in transition, with limited young offensive talent.

Owen Caissie and Colson Montgomery are two more with high swing speeds above 75 mph, but the issue with both of these two is the massive strikeout concerns. Montgomery, despite clearing 30 home runs, set the record for most strikeouts in a season, and Caissie, when adjusting K% to K+ (where 100 is league average), was at a whopping 170 K+ at 37.3%. What is alarming is that when he was in Triple-A, his K rate was still above 30%.

Final Thoughts

Bat speed is a good indicator at any age, but I find that for younger hitters, where the sample size is not as large, looking into these metrics that focus more on tools can give us an idea of their ceiling. Pairing it with a batted-ball metric like HardHit% that is not solely result-oriented seems to be a nice way of perhaps identifying success. These thresholds shouldn’t be treated as fixed rules when researching and drafting next year, but considered together, they offer a useful starting point for identifying young hitters with promising offensive profiles. It is something I am excited to track to test the stickiness of these metrics for young hitters. I will follow up on this with some more, perhaps lesser-known names we can more seriously consider in 2027.