March Rankings Update – Second Base
We are updating our rankings for the stretch run of draft season! Today we’ll have second and third base.
We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:
There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.
March Updates:
February Editions:
Key:
- AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
- AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
- SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings
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| Rk | NAME | Paul S | Brad | Mike | Jeff | Al | Justin | AVG | Adj. AVG | Split |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jose Altuve | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | Trea Turner | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1 |
| 3 | Jonathan Villar | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2 |
| 4 | Robinson Cano | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4 |
| 5 | Daniel Murphy | 5 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 4 |
| 6 | Brian Dozier | 7 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6.3 | 3 |
| 7 | Ian Kinsler | 6 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 8.8 | 9 | 5 |
| 8 | Rougned Odor | 12 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 7 |
| 9 | Dee Gordon | 10 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 9.3 | 9 | 6 |
| 10 | Jean Segura | 9 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 9.3 | 10 | 8 |
| 11 | Matt Carpenter | 8 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 7 |
| 12 | DJ LeMahieu | 11 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 4 |
| 13 | Jose Peraza | 15 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 21 | 13 | 14 | 13.5 | 12 |
| 14 | Dustin Pedroia | 13 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 18 | 14.8 | 14.5 | 5 |
| 15 | Jason Kipnis | 19 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 15.2 | 15 | 7 |
| 16 | Ben Zobrist | 20 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 16.8 | 16.5 | 5 |
| 17 | Logan Forsythe | 18 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 17 | 17 | 17.2 | 17.3 | 4 |
| 18 | Eduardo Nunez | 17 | 20 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 19 | 17.2 | 17 | 5 |
| 19 | Jonathan Schoop | 22 | 19 | 21 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 6 |
| 20 | Neil Walker | 16 | 17 | 26 | 20 | 20 | 23 | 20.3 | 20 | 10 |
| 21 | Devon Travis | 14 | 24 | 20 | 23 | 19 | 27 | 21.2 | 21.5 | 13 |
| 22 | Joe Panik | 24 | 30 | 24 | 26 | 23 | 25 | 25.3 | 24.8 | 7 |
| 23 | Starlin Castro | 32 | 28 | 23 | 21 | 25 | 26 | 25.8 | 25.5 | 11 |
| 24 | Yangervis Solarte | 29 | 25 | 22 | 24 | 28 | 29 | 26.2 | 26.5 | 7 |
| 25 | Javier Baez | 21 | 22 | 32 | 25 | 35 | 24 | 26.5 | 25.8 | 14 |
| 26 | Cesar Hernandez | 27 | 21 | 27 | 28 | 26 | 33 | 27 | 27 | 12 |
| 27 | Josh Harrison | 28 | 27 | 25 | 22 | 30 | 32 | 27.3 | 27.5 | 10 |
| 28 | Ryan Schimpf | 30 | 23 | 29 | 29 | 27 | 31 | 28.2 | 28.8 | 8 |
| 29 | Hernan Perez | 36 | 31 | 31 | 30 | 22 | 20 | 28.3 | 28.5 | 16 |
| 30 | Brandon Phillips | 23 | 35 | 28 | 27 | 34 | 28 | 29.2 | 29.3 | 12 |
| 31 | Jedd Gyorko | 26 | 32 | 36 | 32 | 29 | 21 | 29.3 | 29.8 | 15 |
| 32 | Kolten Wong | 25 | 26 | 33 | 34 | 31 | 34 | 30.5 | 31 | 9 |
| 33 | Howie Kendrick | 37 | 29 | 19 | 31 | 37 | 37 | 31.7 | 33.5 | 18 |
| 34 | Brandon Drury | 33 | 47 | 35 | 35 | 24 | 22 | 32.7 | 31.8 | 25 |
| 35 | Steve Pearce | 31 | 33 | 37 | 36 | 36 | 30 | 33.8 | 34 | 7 |
| 36 | Jorge Polanco | 41 | 41 | 30 | 33 | 33 | 36 | 35.7 | 35.8 | 11 |
| 37 | Derek Dietrich | 38 | 34 | 39 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 38.5 | 39.3 | 6 |
| 38 | Tyler Saladino | 35 | 38 | 38 | 39 | 32 | 50 | 38.7 | 37.5 | 18 |
| 39 | Jurickson Profar | 34 | 48 | 40 | 38 | 40 | 35 | 39.2 | 38.3 | 14 |
| 40 | Raul Mondesi | 39 | 48 | 34 | 37 | 40 | 44 | 40.3 | 40 | 14 |
I’d be curious to see Mike do a Pod Projection for Odor to understand why everyone (except Jeff) is so down on him from a roto perspective. I understand the concerns about the low walk rate, but he is a 23 year old coming off a 33 HR season, and projected to hit in the upper 20s this year.
Steamer agrees with you, projecting Odor as the 3rd most valuable 2B this year.
I’m not so down on him. Only about two bucks in value separates Odor and Kinsler at 8.
I had the same curiosity during the February Rankings. Basically I was told that it’s more about their belief that the other guys are a better bet to achieve their draft value where as Odor has some serious risk. Or that’s the summarized version anyway. You’re welcome to read their responses. Personally, I agree with Jeff. I’m taking Odor over everyone not named Altuve, Turner, Villar and maybe Dozier.
Not to mention vs his 2015 season, he increased his Line Drive Rate, Lowered his ground ball rate, increased his fly ball rate, decreased his popups (by more than 10%!), increased his hard contact rate (by more than 6%) and conversely lowered his soft contact rate (by more than 5%). And he did that in his age 22 season, but traded his contact% and walk rate for these improvements. Imagine what would happen if he improved his plate discipline.
and this despite pitcher’s adjustments. He faced the highest frequency of curve balls among qualified batters last year and the second lowest frequency of fastballs. He also upped his SB success rate from abysmal in 2015 to almost acceptable in 2016.
Mike, is there any reason why you seem so optimistic on Peraza? Having him ranked above Carpenter, Odor, and Segura is kind of shocking
I think it’s going to be his higher valuation of steals (versus the other tankers) into his ranking model. I’ve heard that explaination from him in another ranking update.
I get that, but unless he hits lead off, and either pulls some walks out of his butt, or displays an inhuman BABIP all season, I’m not sure if he could really push those three.
Right now, projections have him around a 4% walk rate, and BABIP’s closer to his 2015 MiLB numbers. I’m just not sure he’ll either be able to steal enough, or put up enough R+RBI to pass a guy like Carpenter.
.289 with 37 steals is more valuable than ya think!
Did you do a Pod’s picks on Peraza? Because your projections are closer to the Fans than Steamer, ZiPS, or Depth Charts and as a nervous Peraza owner, I’d love to see how you came to that conclusion.
I’ll be running Pod’s Picks soon, not sure he’ll make the cut, but seems like he will. I’m guessing my BABIP projection is higher than the systems because of xBABIP, but can’t recall off the top of my head.
Is Eduardo Nunez a 2nd baseman? I dont think he has the eligibility in many places…
I dont think he has it on Yahoo either. He only started 4 games at 2B. You need 5 to gain eligibility on Yahoo. That or 10 appearances.
Where does Brad Miller fit in this list when he gets 2B eligibility?
How much higher would Javy Baez be if he had a clear path to playing time?