Top-200 Fantasy Pitcher Rankings

by
January 18, 2019

It’s time to start discussing pitcher rankings and fantasy managers need to know it’s a new landscape for two reasons. First, the idea of every team having one or two 200-inning starters is *over*. The top arms are putting up similar stats to the past. The change now is with the floor. It has just fallen. Starters are just not going as long and the Wins and Strikeouts they accumulate are gone. Second, many bullpens are now going to more of a committee approach where there aren’t 30 set closers but more like 20. The lack of Saves in a concentrated few closers boost their value and the overall value of every Save.

It’s time to get to the rankings. I used the 15-team Standings Gain Points (SGP) Formula from The Process to create these rankings. I used FanGraphs Depth Chart projections (stats in the table) along with three other sources (not to be named). I ranked them by the average SGP value and also included the standard deviation in all the values.

Top-200 Pitcher Rankings
Rank NAME IP G GS W SO ERA WHIP SV Depth Chart Source 1 Source 2 Source 3 Average StdDev
1 Chris Sale 204 32 32 17 278 2.76 0.97 0 27.9 27.4 27.4 30.4 28.3 1.2
2 Max Scherzer 210 32 32 15 275 3.13 1.04 0 24.9 28.8 29.0 27.1 27.5 1.6
3 Justin Verlander 205 32 32 15 253 3.37 1.07 0 22.7 24.0 24.3 28.9 25.0 2.4
4 Jacob deGrom 210 32 32 14 255 2.93 1.06 0 23.8 24.3 25.0 22.8 24.0 0.8
5 Corey Kluber 211 32 32 15 223 3.46 1.12 0 20.5 26.1 21.8 26.9 23.8 2.7
6 Gerrit Cole 199 32 32 14 238 3.48 1.13 0 20.3 22.0 21.7 22.2 21.5 0.8
7 Carlos Carrasco 199 32 32 14 217 3.40 1.13 0 19.6 22.7 19.6 23.3 21.3 1.7
8 Luis Severino 198 32 32 15 224 3.45 1.14 0 20.0 19.4 20.2 22.7 20.6 1.3
9 Blake Snell 192 32 32 13 235 3.23 1.19 0 19.3 20.7 18.7 22.4 20.3 1.4
10 Clayton Kershaw 185 29 29 13 180 3.23 1.12 0 17.8 21.1 21.3 19.2 19.9 1.4
11 Trevor Bauer 195 32 32 14 220 3.56 1.20 0 18.2 20.5 18.0 22.0 19.7 1.7
12 Aaron Nola 194 31 31 12 210 3.57 1.19 0 16.9 20.8 21.9 18.1 19.4 2.0
13 Edwin Diaz 65 65 0 4 97 2.45 1.00 28 15.7 18.5 19.3 18.9 18.1 1.4
14 Patrick Corbin 182 31 31 13 189 3.43 1.21 0 16.3 17.7 19.0 18.3 17.8 1.0
15 Zack Greinke 204 32 32 12 191 3.83 1.22 0 14.9 20.4 17.3 17.2 17.4 1.9
16 Walker Buehler 163 28 28 12 186 3.27 1.18 0 16.5 18.3 18.0 16.9 17.4 0.7
17 James Paxton 172 29 29 13 198 3.46 1.15 0 17.5 15.4 15.7 21.0 17.4 2.2
18 David Price 196 32 32 14 190 3.94 1.23 0 15.4 16.9 15.6 19.0 16.7 1.4
19 Stephen Strasburg 177 29 29 12 192 3.66 1.19 0 15.6 18.5 15.5 17.2 16.7 1.2
20 Kenley Jansen 65 65 0 4 77 3.32 1.06 28 13.6 16.3 17.5 18.9 16.6 1.9
21 Mike Clevinger 170 29 29 11 180 3.99 1.28 0 12.8 17.4 17.7 18.0 16.5 2.1
22 Blake Treinen 70 70 0 4 78 3.09 1.21 30 13.7 16.1 17.8 17.8 16.4 1.7
23 Noah Syndergaard 176 29 29 11 183 3.51 1.17 0 15.3 17.9 18.7 13.1 16.3 2.2
24 Brad Hand 70 70 0 4 85 3.40 1.19 30 13.8 15.3 17.9 17.5 16.1 1.7
25 Aroldis Chapman 65 65 0 4 97 2.76 1.11 28 14.9 15.4 16.5 17.5 16.1 1.0
26 Jose Berrios 196 32 32 12 195 4.26 1.29 0 13.1 15.9 15.3 19.2 15.9 2.2
27 Roberto Osuna 65 65 0 4 72 3.54 1.14 28 12.7 15.0 17.5 17.9 15.8 2.1
28 Jack Flaherty 164 29 29 11 180 3.69 1.24 0 14.0 17.2 16.9 14.2 15.6 1.5
29 Charlie Morton 152 26 26 10 168 3.49 1.23 0 13.5 15.3 14.6 18.5 15.5 1.9
30 Rick Porcello 194 32 32 13 171 4.24 1.24 0 13.2 15.1 15.1 18.4 15.4 1.9
31 Felipe Vazquez 65 65 0 4 82 2.94 1.16 28 13.8 16.6 16.1 15.1 15.4 1.1
32 Masahiro Tanaka 153 26 26 11 148 3.92 1.20 0 12.4 14.9 15.2 18.6 15.3 2.2
33 Chris Archer 194 32 32 12 206 3.65 1.23 0 16.0 13.8 12.9 18.2 15.2 2.1
34 J.A. Happ 168 29 29 12 169 4.09 1.25 0 13.0 15.0 13.8 18.6 15.1 2.2
35 Kirby Yates 65 65 0 3 84 3.26 1.13 28 13.1 14.6 17.2 14.6 14.9 1.5
36 Mike Foltynewicz 194 32 32 12 204 4.00 1.28 0 14.3 15.5 16.6 13.0 14.8 1.4
37 Robbie Ray 176 31 31 11 221 3.66 1.27 0 15.4 16.5 13.6 13.7 14.8 1.2
38 Sean Doolittle 65 65 0 4 78 3.35 1.11 28 13.4 16.0 15.6 14.0 14.8 1.1
39 Miles Mikolas 200 32 32 12 163 4.04 1.24 0 12.8 17.5 14.7 13.5 14.6 1.8
40 Kyle Hendricks 196 32 32 13 164 4.03 1.28 0 12.9 16.8 15.4 13.1 14.5 1.6
41 Jameson Taillon 192 32 32 12 181 3.90 1.26 0 13.7 14.8 16.3 13.2 14.5 1.2
42 David Robertson 65 65 0 3 86 3.22 1.16 28 13.1 14.4 14.3 15.7 14.4 0.9
43 German Marquez 193 32 32 13 210 3.89 1.24 0 15.8 15.7 12.0 13.8 14.3 1.6
44 Rich Hill 159 28 28 11 175 3.61 1.18 0 14.6 13.5 12.3 16.8 14.3 1.6
45 Raisel Iglesias 65 65 0 3 75 3.67 1.22 28 12.0 14.0 16.4 14.8 14.3 1.6
46 Craig Kimbrel 65 65 0 4 98 2.80 1.07 0 8.4 17.2 17.2 14.3 4.2
47 Luis Castillo 173 29 29 11 172 4.01 1.26 0 12.6 15.1 15.7 13.2 14.2 1.3
48 Madison Bumgarner 205 32 32 11 185 3.93 1.24 0 13.4 16.1 13.7 13.3 14.1 1.1
49 Jose Leclerc 65 65 0 3 86 3.64 1.33 28 11.9 13.1 15.2 14.6 13.7 1.3
50 Dallas Keuchel 198 32 32 13 156 3.68 1.32 0 12.8 14.5 13.3 13.5 0.7
51 Wade Davis 65 65 0 3 74 3.97 1.32 28 11.0 15.1 13.4 14.4 13.5 1.6
52 Cole Hamels 172 29 29 11 171 3.96 1.29 0 12.3 12.3 14.8 14.3 13.4 1.1
53 Jose Alvarado 60 60 0 3 74 3.16 1.30 26 11.5 13.4 14.0 14.4 13.3 1.1
54 Eduardo Rodriguez 136 24 24 10 141 4.02 1.27 0 10.8 14.2 13.8 14.6 13.3 1.5
55 Andrew Heaney 178 29 29 12 171 3.96 1.22 0 13.7 11.6 14.4 13.3 13.2 1.0
56 Zack Wheeler 171 29 29 10 172 3.85 1.26 0 12.5 13.6 15.3 11.0 13.1 1.6
57 Nick Pivetta 169 29 29 11 182 4.02 1.26 0 13.1 12.6 12.2 14.2 13.0 0.8
58 Jose Quintana 188 32 32 13 178 3.88 1.29 0 13.8 13.6 13.2 11.6 13.0 0.9
59 Yu Darvish 139 24 24 10 157 3.76 1.21 0 12.7 11.2 11.8 15.8 12.9 1.8
60 Andrew Miller 60 60 0 3 76 2.95 1.13 26 12.5 13.4 13.1 11.6 12.6 0.7
61 Corey Knebel 65 65 0 4 92 3.06 1.16 28 14.1 9.2 12.8 14.2 12.6 2.0
62 Carlos Martinez 180 29 29 11 166 4.05 1.36 0 10.9 13.9 14.6 10.2 12.4 1.9
63 Ken Giles 65 65 0 3 73 3.62 1.20 28 12.0 10.7 13.4 13.3 12.4 1.1
64 Jake Arrieta 181 31 31 10 162 4.25 1.33 0 10.1 14.7 11.6 12.3 12.2 1.7
65 Will Smith 65 65 0 3 78 3.09 1.17 28 12.9 10.2 13.5 11.8 12.1 1.3
66 Archie Bradley 70 70 0 4 78 3.50 1.24 30 13.1 11.6 10.7 12.3 11.9 0.9
67 Alex Wood 152 26 26 10 138 4.00 1.31 0 10.2 13.7 13.4 9.9 11.8 1.7
68 Mychal Givens 65 65 0 3 69 4.06 1.30 28 10.8 11.3 12.3 12.6 11.8 0.7
69 Jon Lester 194 32 32 12 173 4.34 1.34 0 11.0 13.9 12.9 9.2 11.8 1.8
70 Drew Steckenrider 65 65 0 3 74 3.53 1.25 28 11.9 11.9 12.5 10.6 11.7 0.7
71 Joey Lucchesi 169 29 29 10 171 3.78 1.27 0 12.5 12.0 11.9 10.5 11.7 0.8
72 Collin McHugh 151 34 24 10 142 4.29 1.29 0 9.9 12.4 13.3 10.6 11.6 1.4
73 Jon Gray 146 26 26 10 146 4.19 1.31 0 10.1 13.8 9.0 12.6 11.4 1.9
74 Shane Bieber 139 24 24 9 124 3.86 1.19 0 10.5 13.8 11.8 8.9 11.2 1.8
75 Marco Gonzales 180 31 31 11 149 4.09 1.28 0 11.0 10.7 9.8 13.3 11.2 1.3
76 Josh Hader 80 80 0 5 121 2.96 1.12 7 11.6 12.1 12.4 8.6 11.2 1.5
77 Tyler Skaggs 157 28 28 11 147 3.96 1.28 0 11.4 11.1 10.8 11.1 11.1 0.2
78 Nathan Eovaldi 152 28 28 11 134 3.90 1.25 0 11.4 11.2 10.6 11.2 11.1 0.3
79 Jakob Junis 184 31 31 10 160 4.38 1.27 0 10.4 9.4 11.8 12.7 11.1 1.2
80 Tyler Glasnow 135 24 24 9 158 3.92 1.34 0 10.5 10.8 10.4 11.9 10.9 0.6
81 Joshua James 128 23 23 9 146 3.96 1.30 0 10.3 10.6 9.5 12.9 10.8 1.3
82 Kyle Gibson 194 32 32 12 168 4.20 1.38 0 10.6 9.1 9.1 14.5 10.8 2.2
83 Kenta Maeda 132 23 23 9 138 3.87 1.20 0 11.1 13.6 9.3 9.0 10.7 1.8
84 Hyun-Jin Ryu 126 23 23 9 120 3.67 1.21 0 10.7 12.5 10.0 9.7 10.7 1.1
85 Zack Godley 178 31 31 10 169 4.13 1.38 0 10.0 12.3 9.4 11.0 10.7 1.1
86 Kevin Gausman 170 29 29 10 149 4.13 1.30 0 10.3 10.2 10.3 11.7 10.6 0.6
87 Dellin Betances 75 75 0 5 112 2.84 1.11 4 10.4 11.1 9.8 11.0 10.6 0.5
88 Dylan Bundy 183 31 31 9 174 4.88 1.34 0 8.5 12.0 8.8 12.7 10.5 1.9
89 Arodys Vizcaino 65 65 0 3 72 3.90 1.30 28 11.1 9.5 11.8 9.7 10.5 1.0
90 Matthew Boyd 170 29 29 9 150 4.81 1.35 0 7.6 10.9 11.0 12.3 10.5 1.7
91 Shane Greene 65 65 0 3 62 4.25 1.35 28 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.5 10.3 0.2
92 Michael Fulmer 175 29 29 10 147 4.38 1.34 0 9.0 8.2 10.8 13.2 10.3 1.9
93 Joe Musgrove 162 28 28 10 141 4.03 1.27 0 10.7 10.2 10.6 9.6 10.3 0.5
94 Jhoulys Chacin 189 32 32 10 158 4.70 1.43 0 7.3 11.9 11.9 10.0 10.3 1.9
95 Mike Minor 175 29 29 10 157 4.59 1.33 0 9.1 11.2 11.9 8.5 10.2 1.4
96 Sean Newcomb 177 31 31 11 179 4.20 1.42 0 10.4 9.0 11.3 10.0 10.2 0.8
97 Carlos Rodon 179 29 29 9 162 4.68 1.42 0 7.3 10.8 11.2 11.2 10.1 1.6
98 Mike Fiers 152 26 26 9 125 4.69 1.33 0 7.4 10.7 9.3 13.0 10.1 2.1
99 Reynaldo Lopez 175 29 29 8 152 5.01 1.41 0 6.0 10.0 11.6 12.4 10.0 2.5
100 Ross Stripling 86 31 11 6 85 3.55 1.18 0 7.7 11.0 13.0 8.0 9.9 2.2
101 Brad Peacock 144 66 16 9 157 4.10 1.28 0 10.6 14.1 5.6 9.3 9.9 3.0
102 Ty Buttrey 60 60 0 3 63 3.70 1.30 26 10.4 5.5 11.6 11.8 9.8 2.6
103 Tanner Roark 154 26 26 9 133 4.56 1.36 0 7.6 10.4 12.1 9.2 9.8 1.7
104 Julio Teheran 159 28 28 9 138 4.82 1.41 0 6.6 9.5 11.0 11.6 9.7 1.9
105 Steven Matz 162 29 29 10 155 4.03 1.29 0 10.9 9.7 8.3 9.6 9.6 0.9
106 Jake Odorizzi 161 29 29 9 144 4.93 1.38 0 6.9 9.0 8.7 13.9 9.6 2.6
107 Brandon Morrow 60 60 0 3 64 3.43 1.21 26 11.2 9.6 8.0 9.3 9.5 1.1
108 Danny Duffy 185 31 31 10 162 4.35 1.33 0 9.8 8.0 8.8 10.8 9.3 1.0
109 Chase Anderson 145 26 26 8 125 4.99 1.39 0 5.8 12.2 10.0 9.3 9.3 2.3
110 Tyler Anderson 155 28 28 10 144 4.58 1.36 0 8.6 10.8 7.9 9.9 9.3 1.1
111 Cody Allen 65 65 0 3 74 3.92 1.27 0 4.8 13.3 9.7 9.2 3.5
112 Seranthony Dominguez 65 65 0 3 81 3.39 1.25 6 7.1 12.1 8.6 9.0 9.2 1.8
113 Marcus Stroman 177 29 29 11 134 4.14 1.38 0 9.1 6.6 6.8 14.0 9.1 3.0
114 Kyle Freeland 197 32 32 12 164 4.63 1.43 0 8.6 11.1 8.7 7.9 9.1 1.2
115 CC Sabathia 108 19 19 7 92 4.54 1.37 0 5.6 9.7 10.3 9.9 8.9 1.9
116 Lance Lynn 138 24 24 8 126 4.46 1.43 0 6.4 8.0 8.7 12.0 8.8 2.1
117 Alex Colome 60 60 0 3 61 3.80 1.27 3 4.9 9.2 8.6 12.5 8.8 2.7
118 Zach Eflin 145 26 26 8 128 4.63 1.32 0 7.3 11.4 8.9 7.0 8.7 1.7
119 Anibal Sanchez 144 26 26 9 136 4.29 1.31 0 9.0 8.3 7.5 9.7 8.6 0.8
120 Matt Barnes 65 65 0 4 82 3.27 1.21 6 7.9 7.3 5.3 13.8 8.6 3.2
121 Mike Leake 198 32 32 10 123 4.62 1.37 0 6.6 8.8 8.8 10.2 8.6 1.3
122 Michael Pineda 138 24 24 9 125 4.09 1.26 0 9.5 6.5 6.9 10.6 8.4 1.7
123 Anthony DeSclafani 128 23 23 8 119 4.34 1.29 0 7.9 10.6 10.0 5.0 8.4 2.2
124 Wade LeBlanc 149 26 26 8 114 4.73 1.36 0 6.0 8.3 10.7 8.5 8.4 1.6
125 Alex Reyes 101 18 18 7 114 3.81 1.28 0 8.4 12.1 6.7 6.2 8.3 2.3
126 Dan Straily 156 28 28 7 131 4.82 1.39 0 5.5 9.0 9.5 9.4 8.3 1.7
127 Jose Urena 162 28 28 8 127 4.39 1.38 0 6.9 10.0 9.4 7.1 8.3 1.4
128 Trevor Richards 132 23 23 7 120 4.09 1.31 0 7.8 7.2 8.6 9.4 8.2 0.8
129 Vince Velasquez 150 26 26 9 156 4.41 1.33 0 9.3 9.6 6.5 7.5 8.2 1.3
130 Daniel Mengden 134 23 23 7 95 4.87 1.39 0 4.2 9.6 8.7 9.6 8.0 2.2
131 Pedro Strop 60 60 0 3 63 3.65 1.30 6 5.9 9.8 8.5 7.7 8.0 1.4
132 Trevor Williams 145 26 26 8 110 4.72 1.44 0 5.0 9.1 10.0 7.7 8.0 1.9
133 Jeremy Jeffress 65 65 0 3 69 3.44 1.30 4 5.7 10.0 9.8 6.3 8.0 2.0
134 Ryan Brasier 65 65 0 3 64 3.94 1.26 28 11.0 5.2 6.1 9.4 7.9 2.4
135 Gio Gonzalez 92 16 16 5 78 4.39 1.42 0 4.1 8.4 11.2 7.9 2.9
136 Derek Holland 141 24 24 8 127 4.12 1.36 0 8.1 8.8 6.6 7.8 0.9
137 Jordan Hicks 60 60 0 3 62 3.74 1.42 6 5.0 6.8 9.2 10.0 7.8 2.0
138 Freddy Peralta 72 13 13 4 84 4.40 1.40 0 4.4 9.7 10.4 6.5 7.7 2.5
139 Chad Green 70 70 0 4 88 3.32 1.09 3 8.1 8.3 7.5 7.1 7.7 0.5
140 Yonny Chirinos 114 36 16 7 90 4.27 1.31 0 6.2 5.9 9.6 9.1 7.7 1.7
141 Jeff Samardzija 165 28 28 9 134 4.26 1.29 0 8.9 7.5 6.0 8.3 7.7 1.1
142 A.J. Minter 65 65 0 3 78 3.38 1.22 6 7.1 9.5 6.6 7.4 7.6 1.1
143 Wily Peralta 60 60 0 3 54 4.23 1.41 26 9.0 6.8 6.5 8.2 7.6 1.0
144 Trevor Cahill 116 21 21 8 107 4.10 1.37 0 7.2 5.7 8.1 9.5 7.6 1.4
145 Blake Parker 65 65 0 3 64 4.21 1.29 28 10.6 4.3 6.8 8.6 7.6 2.3
146 Anthony Swarzak 65 65 0 3 66 3.89 1.28 28 11.0 3.4 5.9 9.9 7.6 3.1
147 Andrew Suarez 158 28 28 9 130 3.85 1.31 0 9.5 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.5 1.2
148 Ryan Pressly 65 65 0 4 78 3.33 1.18 6 7.8 6.9 6.4 8.7 7.5 0.9
149 Craig Stammen 75 75 0 4 75 3.62 1.25 7 7.3 8.8 7.3 6.2 7.4 0.9
150 Ivan Nova 150 26 26 7 107 5.00 1.38 0 4.4 9.0 8.3 7.9 7.4 1.8
151 Jimmy Nelson 112 19 19 7 108 4.21 1.32 0 7.2 9.1 7.0 6.2 7.4 1.1
152 Ryan Yarbrough 114 36 16 6 90 4.50 1.39 0 4.7 7.0 9.7 8.1 7.4 1.8
153 Trevor May 65 65 0 3 70 3.98 1.26 6 5.9 8.8 7.4 7.2 7.3 1.0
154 Jaime Barria 113 19 19 7 85 4.94 1.37 0 4.4 9.0 8.5 7.3 7.3 1.8
155 Michael Wacha 100 18 18 6 88 4.20 1.35 0 5.5 9.2 8.7 5.7 7.3 1.7
156 Taylor Rogers 60 60 0 3 63 3.62 1.25 3 5.3 9.0 6.3 8.4 7.2 1.5
157 Caleb Smith 141 24 24 8 145 3.98 1.29 0 9.8 4.3 7.4 7.2 7.2 1.9
158 Kelvin Herrera 65 65 0 3 64 4.07 1.29 6 5.5 7.6 9.1 6.5 7.2 1.3
159 Luke Weaver 132 23 23 8 127 4.19 1.31 0 8.5 9.0 7.1 3.9 7.1 2.0
160 Matt Shoemaker 111 19 19 6 99 4.65 1.32 0 5.6 6.4 6.0 10.2 7.1 1.8
161 Dereck Rodriguez 159 28 28 8 124 4.44 1.34 0 7.2 7.3 9.9 3.2 6.9 2.4
162 Ian Kennedy 126 23 23 6 106 5.02 1.39 0 4.3 6.7 5.4 11.2 6.9 2.6
163 Zach Britton 65 65 0 4 62 3.14 1.33 6 6.4 7.7 6.3 7.1 6.9 0.6
164 Ryan Borucki 111 19 19 6 81 4.88 1.45 0 3.3 7.2 9.2 7.8 6.9 2.2
165 Diego Castillo 60 60 0 3 73 3.12 1.16 6 7.3 6.5 5.2 8.4 6.9 1.2
166 Antonio Senzatela 169 29 29 10 139 4.81 1.44 0 6.5 9.2 6.5 5.1 6.8 1.5
167 Keone Kela 60 60 0 3 76 3.25 1.19 6 7.2 6.9 6.0 6.9 6.8 0.4
168 Wei-Yin Chen 157 28 28 8 130 4.32 1.31 0 8.0 8.7 5.5 4.8 6.8 1.6
169 Jason Vargas 113 19 19 6 95 4.36 1.33 0 5.7 7.0 5.6 8.8 6.8 1.3
170 Jeurys Familia 65 65 0 3 73 3.27 1.25 6 6.7 7.4 6.7 6.2 6.7 0.4
171 Steve Cishek 50 50 0 3 51 3.92 1.33 1 3.7 8.7 7.4 7.1 6.7 1.8
172 Felix Hernandez 127 23 23 7 99 4.81 1.43 0 4.4 5.4 5.8 11.3 6.7 2.7
173 Matt Harvey 153 28 28 9 116 4.69 1.34 0 6.7 11.7 4.1 4.2 6.7 3.1
174 Nate Jones 60 60 0 3 67 3.76 1.26 26 10.8 4.9 4.3 6.6 6.6 2.6
175 Chris Paddack 83 15 15 5 86 3.52 1.16 0 7.3 5.9 6.6 0.7
176 Corbin Burnes 74 13 13 4 67 4.53 1.41 0 3.4 10.0 8.0 4.9 6.6 2.6
177 Will Harris 65 65 0 4 68 3.61 1.22 4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.5 0.1
178 Jesus Luzardo 92 16 16 6 82 4.21 1.33 0 5.6 6.2 6.1 8.1 6.5 1.0
179 Danny Salazar 68 36 6 4 82 3.45 1.18 0 6.5 7.5 3.8 8.0 6.5 1.6
180 Chris Devenski 50 50 0 3 55 3.83 1.20 0 4.3 6.6 6.4 8.5 6.5 1.5
181 Matt Strahm 75 75 0 4 88 3.39 1.20 4 7.8 6.6 7.5 3.9 6.4 1.5
182 Joe Jimenez 65 65 0 3 73 3.97 1.28 6 5.9 6.5 4.1 8.9 6.4 1.7
183 Lucas Giolito 136 24 24 6 109 5.31 1.54 0 2.1 6.8 7.9 8.7 6.4 2.6
184 Ryne Stanek 40 40 0 2 52 3.28 1.20 1 4.1 6.3 5.2 9.8 6.4 2.1
185 Lou Trivino 70 70 0 4 74 3.63 1.30 4 6.3 7.3 5.5 6.3 6.3 0.6
186 Carl Edwards Jr. 60 60 0 3 74 3.80 1.35 3 5.2 5.7 8.4 6.0 6.3 1.2
187 Clay Buchholz 170 28 28 9 127 4.73 1.39 0 6.3 5.4 7.2 6.3 0.7
188 Robbie Erlin 140 24 24 8 112 4.04 1.28 0 8.2 5.9 8.4 2.8 6.3 2.2
189 Seth Lugo 60 60 0 3 61 3.56 1.19 2 5.2 7.4 8.2 4.3 6.3 1.6
190 Jose Castillo 50 50 0 2 60 3.48 1.26 1 4.3 9.8 7.4 3.3 6.2 2.6
191 Eric Lauer 134 24 24 7 122 4.24 1.37 0 7.0 7.3 5.6 4.6 6.1 1.1
192 Ryan Tepera 65 65 0 3 65 4.20 1.32 6 5.2 6.5 5.1 7.6 6.1 1.1
193 Joakim Soria 65 65 0 3 66 3.68 1.25 6 6.0 5.1 6.1 7.2 6.1 0.8
194 Forrest Whitley 92 16 16 6 92 4.59 1.38 0 5.1 5.8 6.8 6.6 6.1 0.7
195 Sonny Gray 24 17 2 1 24 3.73 1.26 0 1.6 8.7 7.3 6.6 6.1 2.7
196 Alex Cobb 181 31 31 9 124 4.90 1.42 0 5.2 5.8 5.6 7.6 6.1 0.9
197 Aaron Sanchez 141 24 24 8 111 4.83 1.52 0 4.1 5.4 4.4 10.1 6.0 2.4
198 Hector Rondon 55 55 0 3 61 3.60 1.21 2 5.1 7.0 5.2 6.8 6.0 0.9
199 Adam Ottavino 65 65 0 3 82 3.63 1.27 0 5.3 5.9 6.8 6.0 0.6
200 Julio Urias 81 15 15 6 84 3.70 1.30 0 6.7 6.2 5.3 5.8 6.0 0.5

Notes

  • The tier drops are quite significant. If I don’t get a top-4 pick, I’ll go with a starter every day. In two industry mock drafts in which I participated in, I was able to nab two of the top-5 and will gladly continue to make these picks. The near 250 K’s and great ratios at a high innings total are anchors that would allow me to stream arms from the glob. Here are the values for the top-135 pitchers (total drafted in a 15-team, nine-pitcher league). I’m just not going to pass on the top-11 (I’m a no on Kershaw) if they are available to me.

  • I’m a little surprised to see Diaz as high as he is but owners must remember the floor has fallen that his 97 strikeouts and great rates push his value up.
  • I’m not usually a big fan of picking a closer early but the cost of closers has really dropped this season after many owners got burnt last season over investing. Now, they are being too conservative.
  • The first non-closing relievers come off the board at #76 with Josh Hader and #87 with Dellin Betances. The key for both is their 100+ projected strikeouts and handful of Wins and Saves.
  • I’m a little surprised in the lack of variation between many of the pitchers. I really thought there would be more. Corey Kluber starts out divisive, but the 2.7 standard deviation is the highest until Craig Kimbell (4.2 S.D.) at #46 (some sources have him with no Saves) and Brad Peacock (3.0 S.D.) at #101 (undecided role).

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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

40 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Mike DMember since 2016
7 years ago

What does the 6.0 average represent for Julio Urias, or to say differently, what is the meaning of that number?

0
Jeff ZimmermanFanGraphs Staff
7 years ago
Reply to  Mike D

Standing Gain Points which I stated I was using is how much an owner would move up in the standings if Urias’s stats were inserted into the standard 15-team league. In his case, 6 spots. In Sale’s case, 28 spots.

1
Mike DMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  Jeff Zimmerman

The standard 15 team league would have 135 active pitchers. How does a pitcher ranked 200th – i.e. below replacement level – move a team up 6 spots?

-1
Jeff ZimmermanFanGraphs Staff
7 years ago
Reply to  Mike D

About 20 K’s will move a pitcher up one spot in the standings, so 80 moves him up four spots. It’s about 2 Wins for one spot in the rankings.

0
Mike DMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  Jeff Zimmerman

And if your ratios are horrible, e.g. Alex Cobb? I’m not sure how Alex Cobb improves your pitching staff in a 15 team league. He’s negative value.

1
psychobunny
7 years ago
Reply to  Mike D

9 wins and 124 K is ~10.5 points. Which means his horrible projected ratios will move you down ~4.4 points. Volume stats make him better than an empty spot.

0
Mike DMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  psychobunny

That’s misleading. You don’t have an “empty slot”, at worst you have replacement value. It’s more of a relative number than an absolute number.

4
danwithoppMember since 2018
7 years ago
Reply to  Mike D

There’s also a diminishing return on counting stats. Once counting stats are decided, pitchers with crappy ratios have negative value and even aces can be worth benching.

1
psychobunny
7 years ago
Reply to  Mike D

If you don’t understand the concept of SGP even with a link to it in the post, fair enough. Complaining that the rankings are bad because you don’t understand, that’s not so good.

It’s basically just aesthetics, anyway. You’ve fixated on a below replacement player still adding 6 points. So if you change it from player A vs nothing to player A vs replacement value, you might get -2 instead of +6. But the list will still be in the same order, replacement level Samardzija will still project 1.6 points better than below-replacement Cobb.

16
Mike DMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  psychobunny

I’m not questioning the rankings/order; you can get there a myriad of ways. But the value being used does not indicate the purpose of the value itself…. A replacement-valued player should be 0.0.

Yes it’s just algebra but that’s the point.

0
MatthewMember since 2018
7 years ago

Where’s Kikuchi?

11
SucramRenrutMember since 2017
7 years ago

Is it just me or do a ton of guys project for higher WHIP than you would expect? I mean I get that Kyle Freeland outpaced his peripherals last year, but a 1.4+ WHIP is Lucas Giolito bad.

4
OTMHeartBBCMember since 2019
7 years ago

diaz projected for only 28 saves? wtf is with these estimates

mets are in a better situation than seattle id say and he got 2x the estimate last year.

-1
carterMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  OTMHeartBBC

I mean, random? I would guess he gets more than 28 also, but 56 on a worse team was just luck that the Mariners happened to win every game by 1. I’d set the O/U at 34ish

2
David Klein
7 years ago

Surprised Wheeler’s in the late 50’s after his breakout last year.

8
baltic wolfMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  David Klein

I was thinking the same thing, especially how Wheeler pitched after May. I don’t have a formula like Jeff does, but if I was ranking him for a points league I’d probably put him no lower than 49 or 50. But in my pts. league, saves and holds don’t matter as much as IPs and Ks with the standard deductions. Ws and Ls don’t matter very much either. It’s a 16 team league with 12 keepers, so nominally the best 192 players are off the board come draft day.

0
MerlMember since 2018
7 years ago

Is it a good thing if I have the top-4 guys on this list in my dynasty league?

-30
LenFuegoMember since 2025
7 years ago
Reply to  Merl

No. It means your league is rife with ineptitude, and consequently winning the league is not really all that satisfying.

30
manormachine
7 years ago
Reply to  LenFuego

If he’s making money every year it must be pretty darned satisfying.

5
manormachine
7 years ago

Stripling seems very low to me. His innings estimate seems way to low for someone whoe should start the season in the rotation.

1
wily moMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  manormachine

he’s not super likely to start the season in the rotation though. kershaw, buehler, hill, ryu, maeda are all good and have the Veteran Cred on him. (except buehler, but, i mean, yeah.)

sure, one gets hurt and stripling’s in , and that happens all the time, but, at the moment he’s not quite penciled in

2
pickleRick
7 years ago

The table format is very poor. The names are outside of the borders of the cells. No comment on the rankings, but I figured you would care about the formatting more than anything else I could say.

26
Jeff ZimmermanFanGraphs Staff
7 years ago
Reply to  pickleRick

It’s a tough call with the width. Next time I’ll post less data for you.

-15
RonnieDobbs
7 years ago
Reply to  Jeff Zimmerman

That’s the wrong answer. You could pull the padding out of all the cells. There is no need for uniform width of the cells. Your column headings also span outside of the columns. The last column heading is not even readable. But hey, that is feedback for someone who want to improve their content, which is not you I guess. If you don’t care, then why reply?

17
Jeff ZimmermanFanGraphs Staff
7 years ago
Reply to  RonnieDobbs

Table size is out of my control. It’s set by powers higher than me.

-3
Bud SmithMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  Jeff Zimmerman

And that’s fine, but where else would you like us to comment on it? Or does no one care about readability at Fangraphs?

16
Jeff ZimmermanFanGraphs Staff
7 years ago
Reply to  Bud Smith

It’s the number of columns and looks better when I did it on my laptop. It’s simply too much data for a mobile world.

-3
TKDCMember since 2016🏆 MVP
7 years ago
Reply to  Jeff Zimmerman

It looks terrible on iPhone. Good thing nobody uses those….
You probably shouldn’t take that as a personal attack. I work for a research institution and our average reader is probably way older than FG, and we get way over half our clicks on mobile/tablets. FG should really make fixing things like this a priority.

4
whiptydojoe
7 years ago
Reply to  TKDC

Pah, @TKDC, I e-mailed them numerous times about not being able to participate in Chats because it couldn’t load on a MBP & Safari. Literally, the only site (specifically the chat) that had any issues. Not once did I get a response back

0
Lanidrac
7 years ago
Reply to  Jeff Zimmerman

The formatting also sucks on the desktops I use to view this site.

You would have more room for tables if Fangraphs used a wider resolution to better fit wide computer screens, although that could make it worse for mobile users.

1
Paul621Member since 2020
7 years ago

You lost me with Chris Paddack at 175. I mean seriously, in what world does he go any later than 167? 173, max.

But overall, thanks for the rankings, you guys do great work with all this. 🙂

2
OkraMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  Paul621

Yeah, Paddack is really talented, but he also only had 90 IP last year and zero in 2017. So best case he throws 120-140 this year and there is no guarantee they are all in the majors. I think he’s ranked fairly for 2019.

-3
biomanekcsMember since 2020
7 years ago

I have to make a plug here for folks not having a handle on Standings Gain Points to read Larry Schechter’s book Winning Fantasy Baseball which describes clearly how to calculate SGP. Then spend a little to get the pdf book written by Jeff and Tanner Bell called “The Process”. It gets into SGP and all sorts of fantasy strategy. I gain a little bit all the time every time I reread both books. The common ratios for calculating SGP for 12 and 15 team leagues are in the book as well. Thank you Jeff and Tanner. I feel good about my own early SGP run as it is matching very closely in rank what Jeff is posting here.

0
Lanidrac
7 years ago

So 27-year-old Carlos Martinez is suddenly supposed to put up career highs in ERA and WHIP since becoming a starter in 2015, while Miles Mikolas’s breakout in his return to MLB last year is mostly ignored by the projections?!

In Mikolas’s case, I think it’s a case of the projection system needing to be fixed for players who recently returned from playing overseas, but that Martinez projection is a real head-scratcher.

-2
psychobunny
7 years ago
Reply to  Lanidrac

I don’t think it’s surprising that projections don’t fully trust Mikolas yet, but it doesn’t look like they’re mostly ignoring it, either. Mostly looks like it’s projecting a repeat of last year except with walks, BABIP and HR/9 being merely quite good instead of league leading.

Martinez had a 1.38 WHIP as a starter last year thanks to a big spike in walks, GB rate continued to fall but didn’t bring more HR, and an xFIP of 4.45, over half a run worse than he’s ever done before. Might also have his projections impacted a bit by going starter to reliever and now back to starter. Steamer has his xFIP bouncing back, but ERA being in line with it instead of significantly better like last year. Might be a good bet to beat his projections, but can see why the projections think he’ll have career-worst ERA.

0
Lanidrac
7 years ago
Reply to  psychobunny

Yes, the projections shouldn’t fully trust Mikolas yet, but they should still trust his 2018 season A LOT more than his MLB seasons before then. However, they’re projecting him to be tons worse than last year. That kind of drop can’t be explained by just assuming those peripherals are going to decline somewhat.

Yes, Martinez had a down year last year, but by no means should he be projected to get even worse! His 1.38 WHIP last year is still better than what they’re projecting for 2019, and the ERA projection is even more crazy. He’s 27, not in his early 30s! He should be projected to bounce back, not decline further.

-1
psychobunny
7 years ago
Reply to  Lanidrac

Steamer/depth charts have him down for 1.36, better than last year’s 1.38 as a starter. They have him down for 4.10 xFIP, better than last year’s 4.45. 9.1% BB, better than last year’s 11.0. GB rate of 49.5, up from last year’s career low of 49.1. It is projecting him to bounce back. It’s just doing so while also projecting that his ERA is very close to his xFIP, rather than over 1 run better.

Similar deal for Mikolas, the underlying numbers are mostly projected to be a little bit worse than last year, but the gap isn’t huge. It’s only ERA with the big gap.

1
RadermecherMember since 2018
7 years ago

39 all day over 31.
94 swtches with 70.

-1
Broken BatMember since 2020
7 years ago

Jeff, some of us are still using pencils and erasers and playing in 4×4 leagues that don’t count strikeouts. Can you run an edit filter and publish what 4×4 would look like for top 200? I believe it changes the list in many ways. Great stuff anyway, as always.

-1
Darragh McDonaldMember since 2022
7 years ago

Love this. Thanks so much.

I would also love the exact same thing but with save-holds instead of saves.

0