Fantasy Baseball Chat With Jeff Zimmerman by Jeff Zimmerman January 26, 2021 11:00 Musty: I’m in a 18 team roto where we can keep eight players. I have Joe Musgrove at $11 currently, would you keep, try to trade or drop him? 11:01 Jeff Zimmerman: Keep or trade. He’s getting quite a bit of hype so someone may value him more than you. 11:01 Dan: Hi Jeff! 11:01 Jeff Zimmerman: Hi Dan 11:01 Christian Colón for Men: Who would be the first three inductees into the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame? 11:01 Jeff Zimmerman: Ron Shandler for sure 11:02 Jeff Zimmerman: Steve Gardner 11:02 Jeff Zimmerman: John Hunt 11:03 Dan: When considering keepers, how do you weigh total impact versus round discount? I am in a 16 team points league and need to keep 2 out of Darvish rd 4, C Seager rd 7, Maeda rd 10, Happ rd 20, and Bohm rd 22. Please help, thanks. 11:04 Jeff Zimmerman: My take is to keep the top-end talent if the plan is to compete. Even though you have a second-round pick by dropping Darvish, someone of his caliber might not be available when you pick. 11:05 Christian Colón for Men: How do you feel about Happ (MIN) and Quintana (LAA) and where they signed? 11:05 Jeff Zimmerman: It fine for each. I like Happ in the AL central more. 11:05 Matt: CBS got me with position eligibility updates from the shortened season. Any sleeper CFers that might not be cost-prohibitive in a trade you like for a points league? 11:06 Jeff Zimmerman: You might get Myles Straw for free and he could produce 50+ steals 11:06 Dan: Hi Jeff! Keep one, no cost, 5 x 5 with OBP and K/BB (for pitchers), balanced team. Dylan Carlson or Sixto Sanchez? 11:06 Jeff Zimmerman: Carlson 11:07 Derrick: How should I value Carter Kieboom? Should start at 3B on a good offensive team, has multiple position eligibility? Do his statcast and plate discipline numbers point to potential breakout? 11:07 Jeff Zimmerman: He was a complete disaster 11:08 Jeff Zimmerman: He had one extra base hit leading to a .010 ISO. I’m not sure he can hit MLB pitching at this point and I think he might belong in the minors. 11:09 Pledge aaron hernandez: Garrett Cooper viable in a 12 team points league w an extra corner IF, utilility, and dh spot? Thanks much. 11:09 Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, for sure 11:09 Dan: What do you expect from Rhys Hoskins? Think Corey Seager is useful to compare regarding comeback from a UCL tear? Seager tore his lead arm, but Hoskins’ tear was in his trailing arm. 11:10 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not sure the arm for Sal Perez, but he was fine also. Hoskins might struggle for a bit but I think he’ll go off at some point. 11:10 JoBu: Thoughts on Brian Anderson? I’ve seen some positive thoughts on his steady production but some experts seem to think he’s too vanilla. 11:11 Jeff Zimmerman: Vanilla is fine. It’s nice to have mainly plug-and-play guys 11:11 Snowman: Would you prefer Austin Hays or Evan White as an upside bench bat? White has the contact to suggest he plays all year and underlying skills seem good if he can correct awful K%. Hays could lead off and would benefit from rumored Santander trade. 11:13 Jeff Zimmerman: It’s White. Hays doesn’t have a full-time job and I’d not count on a dreamt-up trade that might possibly happen. 11:13 Dan: Favorite 3B values in the first 10 rounds? In the second 10 rounds? 11:14 Jeff Zimmerman: Third base is a little weird with talent in the first couple of round and then a steady spread. Early, I’m filling the spot as early as possible with JRam a distinct possiblity. Later, I’ve been adding Edman and Gimenez for some speed from 1B 11:14 Jeff Zimmerman: No 3B 11:15 Winston: Who do you like among profar .Kim and cronenworth? And do you buy into hosmer as a launch angle change guy who’ll develop more power? 11:16 Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t like the entire Padres MI situation and I’m just staying away. Also from their OF. 11:17 Jeff Zimmerman: As for Hosmer, we’ll see if the changes stick and he improves. I doubt since he’s stuck in his ways. 11:17 Jefferson: Any interest in a pirates backend starter, now that the rotation is wide open? Brubaker, yajure, ponce? 11:18 Big Tuna: Do you have a normal routine/plan you start prepping for drafts? Meaning is there certain information or rankings you look at first? 11:18 Jeff Zimmerman: Keller and Brubaker are rosterable. I’m not completely off rostering any Pirate. 11:18 Jeff Zimmerman: Oops, that is for Jefferson’s question. 11:18 Jeff Zimmerman: Now Big Tuna 11:20 Jeff Zimmerman: Mine is pretty involved but centers around starting with a projection based ranking. Then I dive into every possible pitcher looking for changes. I need to know the pitcher pool inside and out once the season starts. 11:20 Big Tuna: Are you approaching drafts much like you did in 2019 or are you still leaning towards using a different approach given the likelihood of COVID’s impact on the season? 11:22 Jeff Zimmerman: The big unknown is the DH more than anything COVID relate. For example, if Mookie Betts hits in front of a pitcher instead of a regular batter, it’ll cost him about 20 RBI. That’s huge. 11:22 Big Tuna: Do you think Ottavino closes in Boston (before he’s traded)? 11:23 Jeff Zimmerman: He’ll get the chance if/when Barnes fails. 11:23 Jefferson: Cesar Hernandez back with the Indians. Who gets a regular job between him, Rosario, and gimenez? Why wouldn’t Cleveland sign an OF instead? 11:24 Jeff Zimmerman: They aren’t done yet. They should be able to trade one of Rosario or Gimenez for an OFer 11:24 45 blows billygoats: What age would you consider peak for hitters? SP? RP? 11:25 Jeff Zimmerman: 25 for all right now. 11:25 Jeff Zimmerman: https://tht.fangraphs.com/rotisserie-category-aging-patterns/ 11:26 Jeff Zimmerman: https://tht.fangraphs.com/aging-curves-revisited-damn-strikeouts/ 11:26 Jeff Zimmerman: I was off, looks like from my own work it’s 26 11:26 Fred whitfield: Zach Eflin is kind of interesting and with Caleb cotham in philly are you interested? 11:27 Jeff Zimmerman: Yes on Eflin, he made some interest changes. Cotham doesn’t excite me. 11:27 Atilla the pun: What current free agents are you most concerned don’t find a MLB home? (i.e. sign overseas, retire) 11:27 Jeff Zimmerman: Yadi, he’s rosterable in all formats but could be done. 11:28 Gil Meche Tank Top: How many bucks for Paredes in AL only leagues? 11:28 Gil Meche Tank Top: How many bucks for Hunter Dozier in AL only leagues? 11:28 Jeff Zimmerman: Paredes should be around $10 or so. Dozier around $20 11:29 Atilla the pun: Favorite pitching category option: W, QS, IP or a combo W+QS? 11:29 Jeff Zimmerman: IP 11:29 Al Gone Quinn: Will Dylan Cease figure things out this yr, or does he have some fundamental flaws? Speaking of backend Pirates starters, how about Kuhl? 11:30 Jeff Zimmerman: I have no way to know but he did perform better after his trop to the alternate sight. 11:30 Higher floor/upside: Jared Walsh or Joey Bart? 11:30 Jeff Zimmerman: Walsh, Bart is starting in the minors and may not get called back up this year. 11:31 Al Gone Quinn: I focus my prospect hunting (keeper league) on guys who are almost MLB-ready. Last yr I took a shot on Madrigal. Do you think Jeter Downs is in a similar position this yr, i.e. MLB-er by end of yr? 11:31 Jeff Zimmerman: Downs is a good bet. 11:31 Jeff Zimmerman: Nolan Jones is another 11:32 Dan: How much do you think it changes my ability to assess players if I listen to games on the radio vs. watching on TV? 11:32 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not sure there is much to access from hearing what someone else thinks. 11:33 Aceman: Dynasty…Have option of a combination of 1 of these arms and 1 of these hitters…..Skubal/Civale and Kirilloff/Kelenic 11:33 Jeff Zimmerman: Skubal and Kiriloff for me 11:33 Isolated Thinker: Lorenzo Cain: Solid late round source of SB, or let someone else have him? 11:34 Jeff Zimmerman: I’d not count on the SB but just as an accumulator, he’s fine 11:35 Marco Michitti: Should I keep Charlie Morton? Head to head points. 11:35 Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, he seemed to get it together in the post season. 11:35 Al Gone Quinn: Is this year worse for obtaining catcher value (outside the top 2 or 3) than previous years or has it always been this bad? Were the actual values we saw in 2019 an anomoly? 11:37 Jeff Zimmerman: I deal with catchers has their own class. Once more sign, I’ll go through and rank the acceptable catchers (don’t hurt my team) and add one of them. 11:38 Jeff Zimmerman: Usually, there are only 19 or so of them so I don’t’ wait forever. If I don’t get one of those targets, I’ll wait until the last round and stream 11:38 Isolated Thinker: My first online league was Grandstand Fantasy Baseball on AOL in 1997. On what platform was your first online league? 11:38 Jeff Zimmerman: ESPN, it was the year Mike Sweeney had catcher elligbility. 11:38 Guest: Who do you think is a better long-term dynasty prospect – Dylan Carlson or Alex Kiriloff? 11:39 Jeff Zimmerman: They are really close Carlson if I have to make a choice, but I could be wrong. 11:39 Magic Kingdome: Correa or Bichette? 11:39 Jeff Zimmerman: Bichette and it’s not close 11:40 Chris Bassitt: Am I progressing towards ace status? 11:40 Jeff Zimmerman: You were lucky as hell and will fall back to earth. 11:40 Paddy: Gimenez vs Rosario in a OBP league? Seems like Gimenez has a safer floor but Rosario is the upside play 11:41 Jeff Zimmerman: Gimenez has both especially with his defense to fall back on. 11:41 Jose Altuve: Dynasty trade advice. What would you say is Altuve’s likely outcome this year and in the next few years? I am thinking about capitalizing on his postseason and selling him high. Thank you! 11:42 Jeff Zimmerman: This might be his high point. Maybe wait to see if he gets off to quick start. 11:43 $33 for Elvis Andrus?: Assuming full 162 game season, do any catchers aside from Realmuto, Grandal, and Perez get more than 450 PA? 11:43 Jeff Zimmerman: Possibly Daulton Varsho if he sticks in CF 11:44 Jeff Zimmerman: Some NL guys like Posey might if the NL gets the DH 11:44 Gavin Lux: Do I have a starting spot and if so am I a top 15 2b? 11:44 Jeff Zimmerman: No and no. Undraftable in most formats. 11:45 Guest: Brad Hand still worthy of being a $9 keeper in shallow mixed 5×5 league now that he’s in Washington? 11:45 Jeff Zimmerman: For sure. 11:45 Guest: Thoughts on Mahle as a #5 fantasy starter in a 12-teamer? 11:46 Jeff Zimmerman: He could work out. It’s tough range to find the hits 11:46 LGM: loving your fringe starter series, Jeff! I could read about Pivetta all day. Peter Lambert had TJ in July but what would you have written about him if that hadn’t happened? 11:47 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m just going off ADP and started down where the pitcher was in half of all leagues. 11:47 Buff: Is Yan Gomes an acceptable catcher option in a 2 catcher NL only league? 11:47 Jeff Zimmerman: He might be a #1 in NL-only 11:47 D: Standard roto, dynasty no price to keep: Dylan Cease or Adrian Houser? 11:48 Jeff Zimmerman: Houser if competing. You might be able to trade Cease 11:48 MO: Do you see Vogelbach getting full time ABs? 11:48 Jeff Zimmerman: No, but he’s pencilled in right now as the starter. 11:49 Dynasty Rebuild: Generally speaking when you’re rebuilding in a dynasty league, and you have high-ranked prospects near the majors (e.g. Kirilloff, Lewis, Patino, Marte, Brujan etc), do you try to sell them for young MLB guys (e.g. B. Lowe, Grisham, Urias, Alonso, etc types) right before your prospects get the callup, or is it better to ride it out and see whether your prospects actually boom or bust in the majors? 11:50 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m big on impact. I want the top 20 or so prospects, otherwise, I find those near or in the majors. 11:50 45 blows billygoats: Ugh…what to expect from Victor Robles this year. Can he get it together at the plate and use his speed on the basepath to live up to the 20/20 hype? 11:51 Jeff Zimmerman: I think he’s more 10/30 for me and will not live up the hype. 11:51 pants: Kirilloff over Kelenic? Most sources seem to value Kelenic higher why are you higher on Kiriloff? 11:52 Jeff Zimmerman: I think Kiriloff will play more this season. No way Kelenic debuts before June 1st 11:52 Guest: will sam hilliard play this yr in col? 11:52 Jeff Zimmerman: Just enough to frustrate his managers 11:52 Guest: i had taillon for a buck in my nl only league and was pretty excited about it to have him at a good cost the next couple of yrs to see what he could do. now in the al i lose him. What do you think of him there though? 11:54 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not high on him at all. We discussed him in the latest Launch Angle Pod 11:54 45 blows billygoats: What does the data show in regard to the RF gates being closed at Oracle last exhibition season and should we rely on how the park used to play even with the CF fences moved in? 11:55 Jeff Zimmerman: We’ll see what happens. Someone smarter than me will figure out what is going on. 11:55 Hunter Dozier or Alex Dickerson?: You’re competing for a championship, who do you take? 11:55 Jeff Zimmerman: Dozier 11:55 Lux: You said I’m basically undraftable. Is that because I’m bad, or because the Dodgers won’t play me yet? For example, would you buy low on me in a dynasty league? 11:56 Jeff Zimmerman: That he won’t play and looks to be on the Joc Pederson development path. 11:56 Guest: You taking the over or under on Dustin May’s Depth Charts projections on usage (136 IP w/ 21 GS and 35 G)? 11:56 Jeff Zimmerman: Sounds right or maybe a little high 11:57 Guest: Jeff, in a keep-forever h2h roto league that can carry over four hitters and one pitcher per team and uses HR, RBI, R, SB, OPS and Ks, which three of these four would you keep? Bichette, Tucker, Albies, Bregman…thanks! 11:58 Jeff Zimmerman: The first three, but you should be able to work out a two-one trade for an upgrade. Look around for that owner with only 2 legit keepers and give him three 11:58 A: Hi Jeff! Have noticed the auction calc giving inflated positional adjustments to DH’s is that a complicated fix on the back end? 11:59 Jeff Zimmerman: It’s a known bug that’ll be gone soon since the calculator is being reworked 11:59 Jeff Zimmerman: That’s it for this week. I’m off to talk on the draft champions pod. Bye.