Fantasy Baseball Chat With Jeff Zimmerman by Jeff Zimmerman December 22, 2020 11:00 Kyle Esco: Pablo Lopez’s gains legitimate? Still room for further growth? Thanks. 11:02 Jeff Zimmerman: I think so. I’m high on him but so is everyone else. It’ll be interesting to see how high is ADP gets. 11:02 Sam: Is Dylan Carlson a good buy? 11:03 Jeff Zimmerman: No idea. Owners can hope on the Sept rebound and his prospect pedigree. 11:03 Kate: How much of a hindrance is COVID to guys who struggled in 2020 in terms of their ability to work with coaches to improve? Thinking about a guy like Cease who probably needs to make some mechanical / release point changes to fix his spin axis. 11:04 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m guessing it’s going to be case by case with each pitcher. Spring Training news is going to really important to follow 11:04 Kate: Will the Rox actually let Brendan Rodgers play this year (assuming health)? 11:04 Jeff Zimmerman: Checks his FG page … 11:05 Jeff Zimmerman: … sees he’s only 24 …. 11:05 Jeff Zimmerman: … so NO. it’ll be 3 or 4 more years. 11:05 Guest: Given the uncertainty in the Twin’s OF, do you see Jake Cave getting fantasy relevant playing time? I ask because I can trade for him dirt cheap and his $ price is dirt cheap (11 team AL only bidding keeper league). 11:06 Jeff Zimmerman: I think he could be in a platoon at best. Wait for more free agents to sign, 11:06 Kate: What’s the realistic upside on a guy like Dubon in terms of stat line? Anything interesting there to chase in deeper leagues? 11:07 Jeff Zimmerman: All seems fine expect the power. 11:07 Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe David Fletcher if he hits the gym 11:07 Kate: Margot or Mercado going to get a shot at playing (nearly) everyday this year? Either interesting if so? 11:08 Jeff Zimmerman: Margot seems like he’ll be in a platoon again. 11:08 Jeff Zimmerman: As for Mercado, in a league with a waiver wire, I like the thought of taking a shot at Mercado to see if he bounces back 11:09 Jeff Zimmerman: If not, just drop. 11:09 ZimmsDaMan: What’s reasonable to expect from Tim Anderson in 2021? We have two years of him beating projections, but the projections are still down on him. The high BABIP seems to stay high. What’s your take on what to expect? 11:11 Jeff Zimmerman: It’s really just one season (2 halves) of beating them. 11:13 Jeff Zimmerman: 11:14 Jeff Zimmerman: It’s by far his best stretch, but it he’s had similar stretches. 11:14 Jeff Zimmerman: He could beat the projections. 11:14 Buff: NL only, Luke Weaver or Adrian Houser at $5.00? 11:15 Jeff Zimmerman: Houser, but I’m a little down on both this year. 11:15 Old Timer: Will Jordan Luplow ever get a chance and significant playing time with Cleveland.? Given their pathetic OF, why not give him 400-500 ABs and see what he can do? He was good at AA/ AAA 2017-2018. Thanks. 11:15 Jeff Zimmerman: He’ll just be a left smasher. He has to find a way to hit righties. 11:16 Jeff Zimmerman: 153 wRC+ vs LHP, 57 wRC+ vs RHP 11:16 Dean: Hi Jeff. Who’s a top 50-75 type player that you’d be targeting in a keeper league? 11:17 Jeff Zimmerman: Grisham 11:17 Kate: Any of these young catcher have any upside? Knizner, Jeffers, Stephenson 11:17 Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t done my catcher rankings. I will once more sign 11:17 Toddfather: Sandy Alcantara’s command is trending in the right direction. What do you think his likeliest productivity looks like 11:18 Jeff Zimmerman: repeat of 2019-2020 11:18 Biff Loman: Will Gonsolin get enough innings somewhere to warrant a spot on a dynasty roster? 11:18 Jeff Zimmerman: Depending on the league depth, he should be owned 11:19 Leodaddy: Do you think Leody Tavares is a legit 15/25 candidate in 2021? 11:19 Jeff Zimmerman: Yep, I expect him to start flying up draft boards 11:20 Isolated Thinker: If Seth Lugo is in the rotation, is he a wise late-round choice (any format) and would you want any shares yourself? Thanks. 11:20 Jeff Zimmerman: He’s not going back to the rotation 11:21 Jeff Zimmerman: If a starter, no. I could see him be useful in a 15-team league for deeper 11:21 Biff Loman: You buying into Jesse Winker’s progression from last season? 11:22 Jeff Zimmerman: It was weird for him. Sort of. The deal is that when he’s being drafted, I like other guys around him, so I’ll likely pass 11:22 Sandy: Tristan Mackenzie. Is he a solid keeper option 16 teams, or do you think he ultimately ends up in the bullpen? 11:22 Jeff Zimmerman: Take a chance for now 11:23 Matt W.: Trent Grisham do you see a bump in HR’s, stolen base or average in the future? 11:23 Jeff Zimmerman: For now, a prorated repeat of 2020 would be great. 11:24 Jeff Zimmerman: His issue is his batting order. He got dropped down a lot last year. 11:25 Mike: Ottoneu 5×5: 51$ Cole + 12$ Soler for 4$ Framber Valdez, 30$ Stras, 32$ Snell. Which side do you like? 11:25 Jeff Zimmerman: The three pitchers but it’s fair 11:25 Nick L: How much of Abreu’s 2020 is repeatable? I think he can hit .300 again but 40 HR might be best case. HR/FB was really high last year. 11:26 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m pretty sure 2020 will be his career season. He’ll be good but no repeat. 11:26 Duchess: Is there much separation from Dane Dunning and Patrick Corbin at this point? 11:26 Jeff Zimmerman: No, if Corbin can’t regain his velocity. 11:27 Schilling & Pence: Suppose I feel that there are 3 players of roughly equal value at the top of my draft (call them Trout, Betts and Soto), and I have my choice of draft position. How important is it to drop to #3, if at all? 11:29 Jeff Zimmerman: I think it’s key if you want a SP in the 2nd round. With the three having hitters rostered, they will be picking up SP’s and talent my drop off. 11:29 Konstantin: Thanks and happy holidays 11:29 Jeff Zimmerman: Same 11:29 Reuben: How do you quantify risk in your player valuations? 11:30 Jeff Zimmerman: Loaded question since there are about 100 different “risks” 11:30 Jeff Zimmerman: I have a playing time adjustment based on talent and previous playing time. 11:31 Jeff Zimmerman: The rest added into my projection busting research. 11:31 Jeff Zimmerman: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/projection-busting-research-updated/ 11:31 Pat: Think Berrios is an ace or going to breakdown? 11:32 Jeff Zimmerman: I think just more of the same. He’s been the same pitcher for about five seasons. 11:32 jpmags: What is holding up MLB from deciding to have a NL DH or not? MLB informed teams recently to operate under the assumption that there will not be a universal DH in 2021. Lack of a final decision continues to have impact on free agent signings and trading activity. 11:32 Jeff Zimmerman: Follow the money 11:33 Jeff Zimmerman: It needs to be bargained and teams want a longer postseason. 11:33 Aceman: Should every team be in on Sonny Gray with that friendly deal?Could always trade him yourself if you fall out or someone else is in need 11:34 Jeff Zimmerman: I think the Reds are just listening to offers and could be the A’s and Rays and just jump at what they think is a great deal. 11:34 Jeff Zimmerman: I think the Reds are going to ask for a ton. 11:34 Toddfather: Benintendi can pretty easily bounce back and slash.280/.350/.475 right? 11:34 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not going to gamble on it 11:35 PB&Js: Deep league help please, don’t laugh! Kiermaier or Duvall more valuable over the next 3 years? 11:36 Jeff Zimmerman: That’s not bad, I’ve go worse. Kiermaier. I think his D will keep him in the field 11:36 Peter: Tyler O’Neill increased his BB%, cut his K%, and increased his ISO in 2020, just don’t look at the rest of his stat line. I had been encouraged by his ability in minors to adjust to a level after periods of struggle, but idk anymore. What do you make of him? 11:37 Jeff Zimmerman: He’s like a new hitter each season. I’d be nice if he just picked a lane. 11:38 Jeff Zimmerman: Find the SP’s including openers who just have SP right now. 11:38 Jeff Zimmerman: People are lazy and will look for the double designation. 11:39 Duchess: Man what do we make of Brendan McKay at this point? Two years ago he was a top 15 prospect that was breaking camp with the big league team, and now he’s almost an afterthought. 11:39 Jeff Zimmerman: Hope for the best 11:39 bart: I have 6th pick in a Dynasty 14 Team roto draft. Will be picking between C Yelich, F Lindor and C Bellinger. Thinking Bellinger because of 1B weakness in 2021. What say you? 11:40 Jeff Zimmerman: 1B is the deepest and best IMO. That said, I’d go Bellinger based just off age 11:40 Jolly Good Show: Hi Jeff, love your work. What are your thoughts on Corbin Burnes? 11:40 Jeff Zimmerman: Great pitcher but the lack of workload scares me. 11:41 DH: Does Willi Castro have 20-20 upside, or was his 2020 season just phenomenally lucky? 11:43 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not sure the 20 steals are there. The success rate has been low and 0 steals in 250 MLB pa’s 11:43 Sandy: I’m guessing the Yankees won’t be in on Sunny Gray 11:43 Jeff Zimmerman: true 11:43 TINSTAAPP: Is it weird to think Lindor may already be beginning to decline? Obviously the power was down this year but his sprint speed has also been in decline for 2 straight years now, and he’s never had the greatest eye at the plate. Doesn’t strike me as a player who will age well offensively 11:44 Jeff Zimmerman: It’ll be interesting to see where he lands because his value could jump quite a bit. 11:44 Juan Gone Baby Gone: Nate Lowe or Hunter Dozier? 11:45 Jeff Zimmerman: Dozier. Multiple positions and does steal 11:45 Jeff Zimmerman: Now, watch Spring Training lineups for anything off 11:45 Juan Gone Baby Gone: Any rule changes to make in standard leagues given current uncertainties? 11:46 Jeff Zimmerman: Just wait to draft. 11:46 Jeff Zimmerman: The season could start 2 months later 11:46 Juan Gone Baby Gone: How much does Gallo rebound? 11:47 Jeff Zimmerman: Decently. He’s great at blocking out and isn’t afraid to get in there and battle with the big men. 11:47 Greg: Have you considered creating a separate Twitter account for politics-related stuff? I would follow you but I’m only interested in what you have to say about fantasy baseball. 11:48 Jeff Zimmerman: God no, one twitter account is too many. 11:48 Humpty: Will you be buying shares of Tailon this season? 11:48 Jeff Zimmerman: Not until he starts throwing 11:48 brad NJ: what are some of your sleeper SP going into 2020? My two are Deivi Garcia and Brady Singer. 11:49 Jeff Zimmerman: If only I was writing a series on late-round pitchers: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/late-round-evaluations-barria-loaisiga-d… 11:50 Jeff Zimmerman: Or tweeted out my most recent draft: Jeff Zimmerman @jeffwzimmerman While I don’t have middle rounds figured out when drafting backwards but I have the late rounds set. Here are my last picks in the #RotoWireMagMock. Rounds 17-301B and OF everywhere lateSP’s and possibly some RP’s darts I haven’t exactly figured out the middle game yet. 22 Dec 2020 11:50 Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Best guess for Madrigal’s fantasy line in 2021? 11:50 Jeff Zimmerman: .320/.320/.320 11:50 Duchess: Am I crazy for sort of being excited about the Rangers lineup? Taveras, Solak, Lowe, Gallo is an interesting group… 11:51 Jeff Zimmerman: OK, it may be average is everyone hits average. 11:51 Buff: How much weight do you put on 2020 performance. If a pitcher changed his pitch selection and the results went clearly up or down, is that enough to ignore the fact that 2020 was such a short season? 11:52 Jeff Zimmerman: This is no loaded. For hitters, I just consider it 2 months. For pitchers, I a lot more willing to take a chance on a pitch mix change 11:53 Isolated Thinker: Do you like Carlos Santana on KC and where do you think he should bat in the Royal lineup? I like the high OBP complement to Mondesi and Merrifield. 11:54 Jeff Zimmerman: I think he’ll bat third. Merrifield and Mondesi will open up some holes in the IF with their threat of steals so few shifts. Also, he’ll be on base for the power hitters after him. 11:54 Jeff Zimmerman: I think he’s a great sleeper 11:55 Guest: With Brandon Woodruff going in the middle to late 3rd round in many draft and holds, what do you think of his value? Are you comfortable with him being your SP #1 or SP #2 if you go pitching heavy? 11:55 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m worried a little with the innings but the choices dry up. 11:55 Joe: Ryan Mountcastle someone you’re targeting? 11:57 Jeff Zimmerman: No for now. I think his profile can be found later and 1B and OF are the deepest positions 11:57 Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: You tweet about politics? Greg might be thinking of the wrong guy. 11:58 Jeff Zimmerman: I have a severe hatred for the orange-haired stepchild in the White House. 11:58 Quadrangular: We just have to expect Stanton to have approximately 350-400 ABs per season at this point, right? 11:58 Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, not much more 11:58 Guest: In relatively limited innings, Eovaldi had pretty good stuff and command last season. What is your confidence level he carry these gains forward if his health holds up in 2021? 12:00 Jeff Zimmerman: The production could be fine, it’s his lack of health holding him back 12:00 Jeff Zimmerman: And that’s it for this week. I hope to be around next week.