Fantasy Baseball Chat With Jeff Zimmerman

11:01
Jeff Zimmerman: It’s time to start today’s chat. Hope everyone has had their coffee.

11:01
Raggedy Nick Burkett: Any non top 10 catchers you feel confident will start 120+games?  Thanks much as usual.

11:02
Jeff Zimmerman: Tucker Barnhart

11:02
ScottTINSTAAPP: Jeff I’ve been enjoying the late round pitching dives, super helpful. For guys who we want to see more velocity from to take a chance on, how much stock do you put into spring training velocities? I know some guys ramp up throughout the year so is there any way you try to parse what velocity changes (or lack thereof) in spring are sustainable and what we should expect over the year?

11:02
Jeff Zimmerman: First, thanks.

11:03
Jeff Zimmerman: Spring Train velocity for starters is very sticky.

11:04
Jeff Zimmerman: Their ramp up is to throw their desired game velocity for as long as possible and keep upping the pitches

11:04
Jeff Zimmerman: If they can’t hit for three innings in Spring Training, it’s not magically jump in in the season.

11:05
Jeff Zimmerman: That said, to radar readings are all over the place, so try to get couple for the pitcher before bumping them up or down

11:05
Jeff Zimmerman: Also, be careful of touched readings. They usually sit about 2 mph under those reports.

11:06
ScottTINSTAAPP: Another think, I love the Launch Angle pod, appreciate the work you do there. Is Rob just taking a break or is he coming back?

11:06
Jeff Zimmerman: Rob has a real job keeping him busy. We’ll see since he has an open invitation to join us any week.

11:06
Dirk: How do you see the rockies infield this year. I’m assuming story is gone before opening day.

11:07
Jeff Zimmerman: Whatever I’d say, they’d do something completely different. I’m staying away from all of them.

11:07
Butch: anything left with Doolittle?

11:08
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s a nice late dart in a waiver wire league. He has been decent when healthy.

11:08
Sean: Hey Jeff – thanks for doing these chats – they are really informative. I’m trying to decide on my final keeper in a keep 15 majors/10 minors H2H points league. I’m choosing between Jesse Winker, Nick Solak, JD Davis, and Tony Gonsolin. There are no costs to keep these players. Any preference here?

11:09
Jeff Zimmerman: It’s between Solak and Gonsolin. I usually lean hitter, would go Gonsolin with the chance he takes any step forward

11:09
Too Many Keeper Candidates: weekly H2H, OBP league…keeping Ryu, Luzardo, BLowe for $10 each…pick two more keepers from: Franmil, Tucker, Swanson, Murphy, Edman, Montas

11:09
Jeff Zimmerman: Tucker for sure

11:10
Jeff Zimmerman: It’s betwee Framil and Swanson for the last spot, I’d go Framil

11:11
Don Von Handburger: Is it too early for thoughts on how COVIDity should affect one’s draft strategy?

11:12
Jeff Zimmerman: My only strategy would be to add extra hitters. Usually, I just have a couple on my bench, but may go with four.

11:12
Daisy: I know he’s been over analyzed and prob way overvalued at this point for a standard format, but for dynasty, Randy Arozarena, is he worth the gamble? I just traded Lance Lynn for him. I’m a huge Lynn fan for this year, but this felt like a good sell high for Lynn if Randy is a legit 25-20 type.

11:12
Jeff Zimmerman: You did fine. Arozarena could be on your team for the next ten years.

11:13
Dan: Hey, thanks for the chat! 12 team H2H mixed. Get to keep 6 forever. Do I keep gallen or snell? Only have 1 spot. Std categories plus QS.

11:13
Jeff Zimmerman: Gallen IMO, but I bet I’m in the minority.

11:13
dmorey: So, I came up with this great baseball idea: positionless baseball. I put the pitcher, batter, and fielders into a supercomputer and find the optimal positioning. Tell me why this wouldn’t work.

11:14
Jeff Zimmerman: Many MLB teams are already doing it

11:14
Duchess: Who makes a bigger impact this year, Ryan Jeffers or Mitch Garver?

11:14
Jeff Zimmerman: Garver

11:14
Duchess: Is there really anything the Brewers can do to try to respond to the Cardinals and maintain some semblance of competition in the NLC?

11:15
Jeff Zimmerman: Spend some money. A couple of World Series caliber teams are still on the waiver wire. They just need to add them.

11:15
clevsteelengines: Does Edward Olivares start up or get called up mid season?

11:15
Jeff Zimmerman: I think he’s up once Michael A. Taylor fails. Now, that might happen in Spring Training

11:16
succubustrumpuous: Does Wilson Ramos get back to hitting RHP again, or he now just a platoon for LHP?

11:16
Jeff Zimmerman: No idea and I’m not worrying about my 2nd catcher’s platoon splits.

11:16
Curtis: In the leagues you play in, do you have owners who have players they “must own”?  If so, which was the weirdest “I just gotta have this guy!”?

11:17
Jeff Zimmerman: Was Robinson Cano with Colton and the Wolfman

11:17
Jeff Zimmerman: Some people irrationally have to have Zack Plesac this season.

11:18
Ahoy: Are the top 3 Pirates for fantasy Hayes, Reynolds and the Parrot?

11:18
Jeff Zimmerman: Close, I’ve considered rostering Moran and Frazier. Fraizer is a nice late add in a draft and hold since he has 2B and OF.

11:19
Daisy: Yahoo has announced that they will be keeping position eligibility for all 2019-2020 guys. How much does this increase the value of a guy like Kiner-Falefa who now has a starting job at SS? Also, where would you rank him in the top 20 of guys who will be C eligible this year? Thanks Jeff!

11:19
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m pretty sure he’d be in the top 10 or higher. Just getting 600 PA from a catcher is huge.

11:20
USEP: Who would you feel more confident getting top 10 type production from, Springer or Judge?

11:20
Jeff Zimmerman: No. Judge could be #2 or #150.

11:20
Jeff Zimmerman: I think Springer is a safe #15 to #25 player

11:21
Trader Bob: Wishing for a deep dive on Luke Weaver, I know his 2019 seems fluky but he did all that pitch design work. Then his 2020 injury cuts both ways as usual (maybe it’s debilitating, maybe he’ll get over it) … how did he look at the end of the season?

11:22
Jeff Zimmerman: Come back to Rotographs in 24 hours and I’ll have my take on him. Basically, he made a ton of changes and screwed up right at the end.

11:22
Chucky: Are you buying in to Kyle Lewis as an OF2? Most rankings seem to be down on him. Possible late bloomer due to his knee injury suffered early on in his minor league career. Robert seems to be ranked as an OF1 yet Lewis’ 2020 season seems eerily similar.

11:23
Jeff Zimmerman: I’ve got Lewis in the OF3 to OF4 range. And Robert lower than the consensus. I don’t see much upside for either one.

11:24
Jeff Zimmerman: That said, they could have a great season in a Javy Baez way if their BABIP jumps up.

11:24
Nick: In a dynasty format, do you prefer Bart, Varsho, or Kirk for the long-haul (assuming at catcher)?

11:24
Jeff Zimmerman: If just for long term catcher, Bart

11:24
Patrick: Yahoo gives Ian Happ 2b eligibility. How much does this boost his value?

11:25
Jeff Zimmerman: Just the amount you’d give any player for having multi-positions. I don’t find second base to be a scarce position.

11:25
JN: Does J. Villar’s value drop severely if he signs with a team like TOR where he wasn’t playing every day and stealing a sh*t ton of bases? I really hope he signs with a garbage team like the O’s again where he stole 40+

11:27
Jeff Zimmerman: Villar is projected for a .700 OPS. That’s barely replacement level, so anyone who drafts him should expect him to just be a part-time bat.

11:27
Quadrangular: You taking the over or under on 14.5 steals for Wil Myers?

11:28
Jeff Zimmerman: I want to see their batting order. I could see the team’s SB drop if everyone is hitting. They could settle for the 3-run homer

11:28
Henry: What’s your closer strategy this year?

11:28
Jeff Zimmerman: Depends on the league

11:29
Jeff Zimmerman: Draft and hold, I like to go early with two guys with obvious handcuffs and get both (Chapman and Britton).

11:30
Jeff Zimmerman: I redraft, I like one sure bet, and then a ton of late darts hoping just one hits. I can drop the rest for breakout starters.

11:30
JN: Would you buy low on Arenado in any situation if the price is right?

11:30
Jeff Zimmerman: I have him valued at pick 70. He’ll always go before that point

11:30
Curtis: What is the latest round you drafted a player who in that season became a stud?

11:31
Jeff Zimmerman: I got Bellinger late in his rookie season.

11:31
The Bandit: Think Devin Williams gets saves this year? If so, how many?

11:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, maybe 5 to 15

11:31
Jeff Zimmerman: I think the Brewers will add an arm

11:32
FancyGraphs: Hi Jeff, I realize this is a tough question, but who do you think has been the most valuable fantasy season in say the last 50 years or so, taking position into account? Could it be MVP Pudge? Is it easily a Bonds early 2000s?

11:33
Jeff Zimmerman: This is out there… there was a retro draft with all players. I thought it was one of Rickey Henderson’s. Ask Rudy Gamble or Eno Sarris, I think they were in it.

11:33
Crates: Why did you post that regressing statcast article as a stand-alone

11:34
Jeff Zimmerman: I thought it was going to be longer but still wanted it for people to reference. I’m a little tired of people think most StatCast changes will stick

11:35
JN: Should I be concerned about Dom Smith’s playing time with no NL DH?

11:35
Jeff Zimmerman: I’d be worried about Alonso’s also since Smith might be the better hitter.

11:35
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m staying away from both until there is an official ruling

11:36
KMan: Think Aaron Hicks is a viable OF3/4 in a league with OBP and no SB?

11:36
Jeff Zimmerman: Make it a shallow league since he’s going to spend a month or two on the IL

11:36
Joe: Are all the big industry drafts (LABR, Tout) still happening this year? Will they be broadcast like usual?

11:37
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes on both. I’ve gotten emails asking if I’ll be back,but I’m not sure if the exact times and dates are set.

11:37
United States Elite Professional: Are there that many questions coming in or am I getting ego’d

11:38
Jeff Zimmerman: The number jumped once football’s regular season was over.

11:38
Will: Any love for R Nunez this year?

11:38
Jeff Zimmerman: Not until I know where he signs. He could easily end up on a bench or in a platoon.

11:39
Quadrangular: Would I be crazy to hold onto both Yordan and Stanton as 2 of my 6 keepers going into 2021? 9 total starting hitter slots, including 1 DH. Assuming Stanton hold his OF status

11:39
Jeff Zimmerman: Or trade one

11:40
Jeff Zimmerman:

The chance Stanton gains OF eligibility (10 games)?

0% (10.0% | 3 votes)
 
25% (36.6% | 11 votes)
 
50% (40.0% | 12 votes)
 
75% (10.0% | 3 votes)
 
100% (3.3% | 1 vote)
 

Total Votes: 30
11:41
Chris: In daily points league with no start limits per week, would you trade Julio Urias for biggio?

11:41
Jeff Zimmerman: yes

11:41
Patrick: Playing in roto with OBP instead of AVG. Are points league rankings more useful than traditional roto to reflect this difference?

11:42
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, but Todd Zola over at Mastersball creates OBP ranks

11:42
Curtis: Should those who have keeper dilemmas always look to trade 2 or 3 for 1 upgrade, rather than keep and cut from their list?  or are we assuming they have tried that already….

11:43
Jeff Zimmerman: They should, but people don’t like to get “ripped off”. If it helps your team, who cares.

11:43
The Final Boss: Are you dropping Story in your rankings at all? (Softer lineup, trade instability, general distaste for the Rockies organization.)

11:44
Jeff Zimmerman: Some but his stolen bases give him a nice floor.

11:44
Quincy: Anthony bass a nice end game closer or just a guy?

11:44
Jeff Zimmerman: Great one

11:44
USEP: Any 2020 hangover from Arenado or do you expect a wRC+ closer to pre-2020 levels?

11:44
Jeff Zimmerman: It all depends if he’s over his injury.

11:45
KMan: Jeff – liked the October article on single-season projections and pERA. One guy from that article that caught my eye was Elieser Hernandez. SSS for sure, but good peripherals. Thoughts on him going forward?

11:45
Jeff Zimmerman: I think I just set the min pick on him at the NFBC, so yes, I like him.

11:45
Quincy: Josh bell has been terrible since around Father’s Day 2019-are you buying1) his pre-breakout level 2)breakout level or3) his performance since?

11:46
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m more into an average of it all

11:46
Drew Smyly: How good am I? What about in a 7×7 with IP and K/BB

11:46
Jeff Zimmerman: Fine and should be rostered in all leagues

11:46
Butch: In a 10team nl only league that plays saves and holds as separate categories would you consider stacking say mets  Braves,or dodger relievers.

11:47
Jeff Zimmerman: Braves and Mets seem perfect for this. I’m not set on the Dodgers after Jansen

11:48
Rodney: Does Josh Naylor feel like a potential breakout candidate to you? Playing time should be there. Raw power looks real. What’s your view of him?

11:49
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m off for now because the Indians could add another outfielder. Maybe a late dart.

11:49
BG: Which version of Ketel Marte shows up in 2021 – the 2019 MVP candidate, the powerless 2020 version, or somewhere in between?

11:50
Jeff Zimmerman: Odds are inbetween

11:50
Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t seen or ready anything to get me to think any different.

11:50
A’s Jays or Rays: Matt Olson or Miguel Sano?

11:50
Jeff Zimmerman: Olson

11:50
bobsyouruncle: Is Jose Trevino being underprojected?

11:50
Jeff Zimmerman: No, not much to see there.

11:50
Yum: Think the White Sox use Vaughn as their DH, or will they bring someone in?

11:51
Jeff Zimmerman: DH for now (maybe wait a couple of weeks)

11:51
Perd Hapley: Is Jon Gray injured?

11:51
Jeff Zimmerman: He was to end the 2020 season. Something with his arm.

11:52
Ryan: Possible Jared Walsh is legit? Or short season mirage?

11:52
Jeff Zimmerman: I think he has been for a few seasons but the Angels kept starting a lich at second base.

11:52
Al Gone Quinn: Marquez is usually ranked 30-50 among starters in MLB. How fare does that jump if CO continues the firesale and he lands somewhere else, other than the bandbox in the Bronx, that is?

11:53
Jeff Zimmerman: Top-12

11:53
Jeff Zimmerman: Around Woodruff and Kershaw. Possibly higher

11:54
I am the Walrus: Keeper question – Huira, Meadow or K.Hayes

11:54
Jeff Zimmerman: What a group with a single flaw each. Hayes for me. I’ll hope the power sticks

11:55
Al Gone Quinn: Presuming Callaway gets fired, are the Angels now a likely landing spot for Bauer? (rumored he didn’t get along with Callaway in CLE)

11:55
Jeff Zimmerman: Not really. $$$ will talk.

11:55
Eddie Rosario: How does move to Cleveland affect my value? Better for hitting stats?

11:56
Jeff Zimmerman: Close to the same. Hitting near the top with some decent pieces around him.

11:56
Al Gone Quinn: Sanchez or Contreras?

11:56
Jeff Zimmerman: Conteras and it’s not close

11:56
Jimbo: Rafael Montero or Josh Staumont? points league

11:57
Jeff Zimmerman: Montero, he has the job.

11:57
Al Gone Quinn: This is somewhat anecdotal but from what I can see there was more cutting this year at the Ottoneu cut deadline 2 nights ago. Does this surprise you? I would have guessed more mulligans would have been granted for veteran slumps.

11:57
Jeff Zimmerman: You’ll have to ask someone else, I’m not in any Ottoneu leagues.

11:58
Don Von Handburger: In a semi-dynasty league, which young guy should I target for 2021-2023 value only: Gleyber Torres or Ozzie Albies?

11:58
Jeff Zimmerman: Albies

11:58
A-story-a: Can you see the Reds headed to the garage sale in Denver for a shortstop?

11:58
Jeff Zimmerman: If Story is on the block, every team is going to at least going to look

11:58
yum: think trout will be good this year? thx

11:59
Jeff Zimmerman: Nope, he’ll be benched at some point.

11:59
Chucky: Bohm or Biggio? Biggio’s position eligibility is so much more enticing, or does Muncy do the same as both youngsters? ( minus the Biggio SB’s)

11:59
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m with Bohm. I don’t weight MI any more.

12:00
Kate: How does PT get dispersed in Colorado with Arenado leaving?  Rodgers finally get a shot at consistent PT?

12:00
Jeff Zimmerman: Still no idea

12:00
Derek: Thoughts on Luis Urias this year?

12:01
Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t. He doesn’t seem to have any average or better skills

12:01
I am the Walrus: What do you think of skipping the first tier SP (Cole, Degrom, Bieber, Bauer) and 2nd tier (Darviish, Giolito, Buerhler) and taking two in the Castillo, Woodruff, Gallen, Snell tier?

12:01
Jeff Zimmerman: In no draft I’ve been see any of the pitcher’s you listed make it to the 4th round

12:02
Jeff Zimmerman: I’ll not get the chance to get two of your last group.

12:02
corrections: Points league with no SO penalty and heavily weighted to home runs (with losses and wins worth -10 and 10 respectively) keeping (and round kept this year) Bieber (13th), Maeda (10th), and Gallo (17th). How would you feel between Franmeil Reyes (15th), Gary Sanchez (14th), and Adell (19th) for fourth keeper? Each year round costs moves up by 2.

12:02
Jeff Zimmerman: Reyes, but none of the last group is a deal

12:03
I am the Walrus: Where do you think SS,Torres ends in HR’s – 28??

12:03
Jeff Zimmerman: Way under, but I could be wrong

12:03
Middle relievers: Are we more valuable this year since starters will pitch less, or less valuable because of rule changes and the likelihood we will be overworked to the point our ratios suffer?

12:03
Jeff Zimmerman: More in certain spots. Hitting the right ones here will win championships.

12:04
Jeff Zimmerman: Well, that’s it for today. Talk to everyone next week.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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