Regressing StatCast: A Fable

by
February 2, 2021

This fable is inspired by Eric Hosmer and Dansby Swanson. In my last article, I noticed both improved in some of their StatCast metrics. So, I wondered how much should the values regress? After wasting more time than I’ll admit roaming for the answers, I remembered I already discovered the answers when creating my StatCast projections. Magically the season weightings work out to simply splitting the difference between 2019 and 2020 value. Normally, the most recent season would carry more weight, but with 2020’s limited sample, the two StatCast metrics (launch angle and max exit velocity) carry equal weight. Now, I can continue drudging through life. The end.





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Jimmember
3 years ago

Jeff, we all like quickies. Sometimes.

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