Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 12/10/2019

Brad Johnson: Let’s kick this thing into gear!

Nick: Just out of curiosity, what time of day does Fangraphs get the most traffic?  And is it indeed (as I suspect) a time during which most people (like me) should be working instead?

Brad Johnson: The writers haven’t had access to traffic data for a good half decade. And the last thing was turned off because the numbers were just crazy wrong.

Brad Johnson: So… I don’t know. I suspect the answer to your question is yes.

Trent: What is the best fantasy landing spot for Rendon?

Brad Johnson: Well, Colorado

Brad Johnson: Realistically, probably any of the big players in his market

Brad Johnson: Lot of good ballparks and lineups

Brian: White Sox sign which FA Starting Pitcher?

Brad Johnson: Danny Salazar!

Brad Johnson: (I don’t have a read on who they’re zeroing in on for pitching purposes. They need *something*)

Brad Johnson: Their lineup needs an overhaul too.

Brad Johnson: They had many of the same problems as the Padres over the last couple years. And unlike the Padres, they’re just leaning into it.

Tony: Would you trade for someone like Bryant not knowing if he remains with the Cubs? What’s your feeling on him in general

Brad Johnson: I don’t think the Cubs/Wrigley are adding any specific value to him

Brad Johnson: He’s going to go to a contender possibly with a more hitter friendly park and almost certainly with a better supporting lineup

Brad Johnson: Not that the Cubs lineup isn’t quite good.

Turd Ferguson : Biggest fantasy impact in 2020. Whitley, McKay, May, or Kopech. Go. . .

Brad Johnson: From this batch? I’ll throw a dart at Kopech

Brad Johnson: But he’s also the most likely to zero out or worse

Brad Johnson: I like them all in a dart throwing kinda way. Lot of talent. But nobody should be surprised if any/all take years to settle in as fantasy assets

Jobu: I don’t have any questions.  I think.

Guest: Otto fgpts: 51 scherzer for 40 lindor, who do you want in this trade?

Brad Johnson: Lindor and $11

Brad Johnson: Scherzer is keepable at $51, without a doubt

Brad Johnson: but one of these years he’s going to turn in like a $5 performance.

Brad Johnson: A bad Lindor season is still very valuable

Brad Johnson: (ignoring injury scenarios for both players)

Greg: Last night, Jeff said he’d prefer Paddack over Lamet for 2020; which one do you prefer?

Brad Johnson: Easily Paddack

Brad Johnson: Lamet is going way too high

Brad Johnson: I haven’t deep dived on this upcoming pool of pitchers yet, but Lamet has a typical 60th SP profile

Brad Johnson: He’s going mid-30s

Brad Johnson: Paddack’s profile is more of that 20s to 30s range

Bob: How do you view Reynaldo Lopez

Brad Johnson: Not favorably

Brad Johnson: If it’s the sort of league where you can just stash a guy indefinitely and never use him, I’d consider a flier

Brad Johnson: Otherwise, let somebody else go fishing for the breakout

Brad Johnson: I think he gets associated with Giolito a lot. Unfairly.

Brad Johnson: And the White Sox didn’t fix Giolito – he did it himself at a pitching lab. So it’s not like we can even strain to say they fixed one guy so they might fix another.

Braves4Life: What do you think about me trading Arendo, Mondesi, S. Marte, Bauer and Greinke for Acuna?  Arendo was a keeper and I was on the fence with Modesi.  The others would have been cuts.   Thanks

Brad Johnson: So Arenado and an option on Mondesi for Acuna. Yea, that sounds fine to me.

Brad Johnson: Just be careful you don’t leave your rival overpowered. That’s a lot of talent going his way.

Juan Teixeira Beer: Does a trade of Francisco Mejía, Adrian Morejon and Cal Quantrill for Willson Contreras sound about right?

Brad Johnson: I don’t really see that as a fit in either direction.

Guest: Pod wrote a quick bit about Bundy the other day (today, maybe?). You seeing him as a potential back-end starter with some upside potential, or is his ceiling still barely rosterable?

Brad Johnson: I think there is some potential he defeats his homer demons

Brad Johnson: and if he does, then he’s back-end rosterable

Brad Johnson: I don’t think he’s worth any heroic efforts to grab him. If he’s the guy sitting on the wire when you need him, then you can give him a try.

brad : Where the heck you going in your hometown that only serves Bud on tap?

Brad Johnson: On the Border, Bonefish Grill, and Cheesecake Factory.

Brad Johnson: Yes, it’s suburban hell

Brad Johnson: (bonefish at least had drinkable wines as an alternative)

GM Rizzo: If I don’t sign Rendon, beyond 3B who else is likely my next target?

Brad Johnson: Bryant seems obvious

Brad Johnson: So many bargain plays they can try: Dozier, Asdrubal, Sogard, Franco, Frazier, Holt, Shaw, Flores, Gennett, and Kipnis stand out

Brad Johnson: Howie Kendrick’s already on the roster

Pat: Cueto or G Richards in 2020?

Brad Johnson: I’ll say Cueto, but I’m in wait and see mode

Nolan: Is Josh Lindblom on your radar at all?  What kind of ADP might be expect?

Brad Johnson: Late, whatever Kelly was going for last winter

Conspiracy Theories: What percentage of your answers are misinformation designed to tamp down interest in players you want to draft for yourself?

Brad Johnson: none, I have too much hubris to fear you

Brad Johnson: Jeff on the other hand is a shifty bastard 🙂

Pat: Any potential closers you’d speculate on?

Brad Johnson: Off the top of my head, Clase has top 1 potential

Follow Up Q: What accounts for Lamet’s surge up the ADP ranks?

Brad Johnson: Big K-rate, reasonably decent looking return

Word?: Two-part question on Hoskins: 1) You think Steamer’s projections are about right at .365 OBP, .500 OBP, 36 HR and 2) if so, do you think that’ll be peak Hoskins (age-27 season)?

Brad Johnson: Sounds like a 65th percentile outcome to me

Brad Johnson: The OBP is 50th percentile, I just see him more as a 28-32 HR guy

MayorMcCheese: Keeper league 260 budge. Last keeper: Sale at $45, Moncada at $9, Carlos Santana at $10, Semien at $5?

Brad Johnson: Has to be Semien or Moncada at those prices

Brad Johnson: And I’m sad you have to cut one of them

Brad Johnson: Personally, I’d go Semien. I think it’s a little more likely his breakout sticks than Moncada’s

Pip: Do you think people in Ottoneu put too much value in surplus? It’s obviously important, but you don’t win by having the most surplus at the end of the year. Wouldn’t you in the end rather have a $30 player with $0 surplus than a $3 player with$5 worth of surplus?

Brad Johnson: Yes and no

Brad Johnson: The first level of analysis is “I win if I get $550 of production out of $400 in resources”

Brad Johnson: So any source of surplus is bringing you in the right direction

Brad Johnson: In reality, the teams that win usually are doing it with loans of elite players. So they’re getting $550 production on $550 of budget while forgoing some future seasons of a Jo Adell sort.

Brad Johnson: For me, the last thing I worry about is surplus value. I’ll routinely overpay for a player (ahem, Mike Trout) to get Top 5 output

Grey: Re: Giolito:  Is anyone this off-season working with the same “pitching lab” that you mentioned as the reason for Giolito’s success?

Brad Johnson: Undoubtedly. I don’t know many of the specifics of his story, but pitching labs are all the rage these days

Tony: First pick of the draft: Trout or Acuna or other?

Brad Johnson: In a standard setting, you’re overthinking it if you take somebody other than Trout

Brad Johnson: Though this is the first year in recent memory that I’ll think long and hard about letting myself… overthink…

Brad Johnson: which is to say I think Trout’s perch as the top fantasy asset is in great danger from Acuna/Yelich/Bellinger/Soto than the previous threats of Betts or Altuve.

Brad Johnson: Those were just dumb picks over Trout. If you want to take Acuna instead of Trout, I’m not going to give you any grief.

Guest: Believing in Montas to pick up where left left-off pre-suspension next year?

Brad Johnson: Well.

Brad Johnson: No, but I believe the breakout was real

Brad Johnson: He was still probably pitching somewhere around his 70th percentile

Brad Johnson: The new splitter was what triggered the breakout, but splitters are notoriously fickle pitches

Brad Johnson: Matt Shoemaker is a less talented example. He’s had good seasons and bad seasons and half seasons galore through his career.

Brad Johnson: I think if you’re paying the price for a low 3s ERA and over a strikeout per inning, then you’re making a losing bet

Brad Johnson: But if you’re paying the equivalent of a 4.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and over a K per IP, then you have some room for profit.

Chris: Which site has the most accurate park factors?

Brad Johnson: I think if we knew that, we’d all be using them

Brad Johnson: I’ve yet to see a process which isn’t a complete mess. Your best bet might be to take everything in the ecosystem and mash it together.

Brad Johnson: I’ve been meaning to re-research park factors as everything I’ve read about them over the last couple years is that they’re all a broken mess.

Word?: What do I do with a $27 Verlander in Ottoneu?  Trade while he’s scalding hot or sit back and enjoy my surplus?  Obv depends on value returned, but wanted some qualitative thoughts.

Brad Johnson: I’ve put a similarly priced share on the block. No nibbles. $24 Nola is getting a lot of attention though.

Brad Johnson: In general, I think it’s fair to hear what’s out there

Brad Johnson: If you can get a productive young+cheap building block, it could be worthwhile to maybe sell a year too early

James: Thanks for the chat Brad! Is Gallen an SP2, and how would you tier/rank Canning, Keller, Cease, and  short and/or long term?

Brad Johnson: For Gallen, I’ll say that’s one of the possible outcomes. I’m not willing to say he IS that. It certainly looks possible.

Brad Johnson: I think it’s safe to pencil him as a positive fantasy contributor – whether that’s just as depth innings or as a carrying pitcher, is another matter to be determined later.

Brad Johnson: Canning is the only one of those three I’d count on for help in 2020

Brad Johnson: Keller and Cease are upside plays who are more likely than not going to struggle in 2020.

Brad Johnson: Breakouts are possible. Monitor in the spring accordingly.

jd: In FGpts, which player do you like best after a strong rookie appearance: Kyle Lewis, Tommy Edman, Yaz?

Brad Johnson: I have Lewis and Yaz as below $0

Brad Johnson: I’d have to dig more on Edman, but he’s a reasonable (presumably $3) keep with his eligibilities.

Brad Johnson: I worry about his role, the Cardinals are always in a roster crunch

Guest: Got Mondessi at $8 in dynasty. On the plus side, it’s TB instead of HR. On the minus side, it’s OBP instead of AVG. He doubles to $16 after the season. I’m thinking about moving him. You think that’s a poor idea based on him potentially winning SBs by himself?

Brad Johnson: i think you have to weigh offers. And not because of the categories or rising cost.

Brad Johnson: His shoulder injury is fairly serious. We have every reason to hope he’ll fully recover, but we should also be prepared for this to linger indefinitely.

Brad Johnson: So if somebody is giddy about acquiring the top base running option in the league, I might let them blow me away.

Kelly: Thoughts on Dinelson Lamet? Early ADP rankings have him pretty high.  Looked pretty good when he returned especially with strikeouts.  Are you a believer?

Brad Johnson: Can’t say I’m especially enthusiastic about him. Minus command and a limited repertoire is something I usually avoid.

Brad Johnson: The profile is a little different, but I also routinely avoid Lance Lynn because of the non-repertoire. Sometimes to my detriment.

Anonymous: Ketel or Hiura in a 20-team keep-forever? (I know, both have warts)

Brad Johnson: Hiura for me

Brad Johnson: I love ’em both

Brad Johnson: The warts aren’t enough to scare me off

Matt: $6 for each of Sano and W Calhoun in a dynasty league. Each controlled through 2021 then go up to $16 in 2022. If only one of the two, which one you got?

Brad Johnson: EZ Sano

Anonymous: Austin Meadows has a big ADP spread right now (ADP20-52). You in or out at the avg pick 35?

Brad Johnson: I haven’t dug in enough yet to speak authoritatively on this. I will say he smells like a typical pick 35 from past seasons

Brad Johnson: But when is Michael Conforto getting picked? Because if it’s much later, I’ll just go Conforto at the discount.

Guest: How do I persuade my possible trade partner who approached me about Trevor Story to take Jonathon Villar instead?  My co-owner refuses to trade Story (despite the fact that we have Bo Bichette coming up this year and also Mondesi and Villar on the roster).

Brad Johnson: Villar is going to have eligibility over the entire field, will bat mid-lineup, and those SBs…

Ryan: Hey Brad, glad your back.  Is Franimal more Khris Davis or Chris Carter?

Brad Johnson: I’ll say Davis

Nick: What are the biggest “warts” concerning Ketel?

Brad Johnson: Mainly that his only power season coincides with a very juiced ball

Brad Johnson: And right now I’m laying odds at 50/50 that they roll out a more typical ball next year

Ryan: Are you still assuming we see a juiced ball until told otherwise?

Brad Johnson: Not really.

Brad Johnson: I plan to mostly build rosters as if the ball will NOT be juiced

Trent: What are your expectations for Howie Kendrick in 2020?

Brad Johnson: He’s been very good for a long time, and he finally had a team manage his playing time enough for him to play at 100% the whole time

Brad Johnson: I think he can do 90% of what he did last season with the same sort of usage.

Anonymous: what’s your guess for SP meta-strategy in drafts this year?

Brad Johnson: I find myself wanting a bunch of pick 15 to 30 guys

Brad Johnson: I’ll sew up some elite bats early with 5 category production then move into 3 or 4 pitcher picks in the 4th to 9th

MayorMcCheese: Whitley Merrifield? What about Semien OVER him as keeper? Reasonable $

Brad Johnson: I think Semien is easily better than Merrifield

Brad Johnson: So money equal, then yes, Semien

Bowser: Thoughts on Jordan Montgomery in 2020?

Brad Johnson: A good name to remember for late in drafts. Especially early ones before people are reminded he exists in Spring

Brad Johnson: That said, he’s just a dart throw based on a bunch of good-ish offspeed stuff.

Craig: Giants are reportedly going after Castellanos; would that sap his fantasy value given the ballpark?  (Also, why on earth are the Giants going after Castellanos?)

Brad Johnson: Yes, mostly because of the supporting cast though.

Brad Johnson: I think we’ll see him sign with a bonafide contender

Brad Johnson: even if a team like the Giants offers more

Brad Johnson: I find the “he stepped up for a contender” narrative to be very seductive

Brad Johnson: After all that time with the terribad Tigers, I get the sense he wants to be on a good team

Bowser: …and somewhat simlarily, Jharel Cotton?

Brad Johnson: I’ve never really bought into Cotton as more than an 8th SP

Anonymous: is “L o A d M a N a G e M e N t” going to infuriate us this year? everyone hates the dodgers for it, but apparently it works IRL

Brad Johnson: As an industry, we’ll need to adjust for this becoming the norm

Brad Johnson: Especially going up to a 26-man roster, there’s even more reason to juggle playing time

Greene: Mike Montgomery or Jordan Montgomery if they both end up with rotation spots?

Brad Johnson: EZ Jordan

JBJ: Where is a landing spot you’d be interested in him going?

Brad Johnson: Philly!

Dregs: Deeeeep dregs question: Granting that neither is likely to produce positive value, if had to choose between Erick Fedde and Elieser Hernandez, next year and-or as keeper, who do you chose?

Brad Johnson: I think Hernandez is a little more likely to turn out a playable run of starts or relief appearances

Roger: What about the converse of the “stepped up for a contender” narrative?  For example, are you thinking Grandal might start phoning it in if the White Sox aren’t competitive this year?

Brad Johnson: If we’re talking narratives, it could be said that Grandal likes to toil in obscurity (remember that 2018 postseason?). The Brewers may have contended, but it’s not like anybody outside Milwaukee/fantasy circles knows they exist.

Bowser: Favourite spec to make a big leap in 2020?

Brad Johnson: How deep?

Brad Johnson: I’m going to keep my deepest one to myself because I want to pick him in an ongoing slow draft

Brad Johnson: On the shallower end, Marco Luciano could surge way up lists (he’s already very popular)

Brad Johnson: I *want* Kevin Cron to get some play time

Brad Johnson: Carter Kieboom is due to a rebound. He could be the Nationals infield answer.

Trade: Dynasty 12 tm roto 5×5 trade offer…Morton and Carlson for Castillo? Thoughts?

Brad Johnson: Carlson side for me

Anonymous: Hot take: daily moves leagues should have different default ADPs than weekly. Solely because of the Rockies.

Brad Johnson: Yes to the first statement. No to the second.

Brad Johnson: Your waiver pickups in week 14 have little to no effect on ADP

Brad Johnson: and you don’t want Coors visitors in March/April more often than not

Bowser: someone outside the top 100 that could be top 50 by midseason?

Brad Johnson: Lemme look at a list

Brad Johnson: Antoni Flores is one I’m tracking closely

Brad Johnson: Had a disappointing 2019

Year 2: Senzel or Brian Reynolds — assume both healthy all year and Senzel stays in OF.

Brad Johnson: Both guys I’m below consensus on. I’ll say Reynolds. Did Alex have him listed on his LA tightness piece?

Brad Johnson: He seems like somebody who should have a tight LA

Matt: My dynasty league replaced W with QS 3-4 years ago (we have requirements about SPs and RPs actually being SPs and RPs). Beginning to wonder if that was the correct move with current shift of real life pitcher usage. Any thoughts on changes that might make more sense in the current environment? Maybe back to Ws and change SV to SV + HLD?

Brad Johnson: Could try W+QS?

Brad Johnson: I haven’t figured out a “correct” answer yet

Brad Johnson: I’ve always been against QS, that was always the wrong answer

Brad Johnson: Wins obviously suck as a category, they’re chaos in a small number format

Brad Johnson: But I’ll take that over a stat that only 30 pitchers produce

Brad Johnson: (and I don’t mean saves which are an entirely different beast)

Brad Johnson: Time to start wrapping up

Nelson: If you started a new job unrelated to baseball, would you still play fantasy?

Brad Johnson: Certainly

Brad Johnson: I’d probably play better too tbh

Brad Johnson: Write 4 articles every day for a couple months then see how much you want to micromanage 10+ teams 🙂

Brad Johnson: I’m working on cutting back this year, but I probably wouldn’t have to if I was doing something else.

tREX: I’ve got a share of Trevor Bauer and I need to sell.  What would be a fair move for a hitter?  Is Correa or Machado too much to ask for in return? Basically, can I trust Bauer in Cincy?

Brad Johnson: Try it!

Brad Johnson: Can’t hurt

Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t expect a yes, but you might get one.

Brad Johnson: I think Bauer will be fine. He’s still a threat for big numbers. Or pain.

twinmh: How about IP instead of W or QS?  Avoids the binary cutoff of a QS, but still reflects quality of pitching.

Brad Johnson: That’s a viable route, but I think you need some other quirks in your league first.

Brad Johnson: If it’s straight 12 team, Yahoo standard, then I’d shy away from IP

Anonymous: Why are we getting a discount on Rizzo this year? Did basically the same numbers (adjusted for ball / playing time). is the ‘Age: 30’ really that scary?

Brad Johnson: It’s the back issues that keep coming up

Anonymous: weird how Vlad is basically getting drafted in the same spot as last year despite having a lot more implied playing time this year

Brad Johnson: The increase PT is counterbalanced by his disappointing debut

Brad Johnson: He’s still going way before his projected output (and I’m still considering him regardless)

Sonny: 4 years of Yordan Alvarez or 2 of Arenado in 5×5 with OPS?

Brad Johnson: Tough one!

Brad Johnson: I really like Alvarez so I think it comes down to your time horizons.

Brad Johnson: Arenado is definitely the safe play if you think 2020 is winnable

Brad Johnson: If it’s a little more of a stretch for you to take 2020, then Alvarez starts looking a lot more attractive.

Metdaddie: 2h dynasty regardless of position who do you keep (only keep one) Rhys Hoskins, Yoan Moncada or Cory Seager?

Brad Johnson: Moncada

W Calhoun vs Sano: If one were to take position out of the question, who hits better in 2020?

Brad Johnson: For fantasy numbers, Sano

Brad Johnson: Calhoun could conceivably out wRC+ Sano while still massively underperforming him on fantasy stats

Rhett: Think McCullers will be on an innings limit? What can we expect from him this year?

Brad Johnson: I suspect 140 IP on something like the Kenta Maeda plan

Andy: Does Whitley start the year in AAA?

Brad Johnson: Most likely

Brad Johnson: He’d have the light it up in spring AND there would need to be an obviously open rotation spot

Brad Johnson: Because if he’s looking sharp again, then the Astros might as well bank the extra year of club control

Anonymous: will MadBum get Keuchel’d?

Brad Johnson: No

Brad Johnson: I think he’ll get his $100MM ask.

Brad Johnson: I know everyone seems to prefer Wheeler, but I still have Bum as a hair better next 4-5 years

Rhett: Kyle Tucker be a factor in the Astros OF now that Marisnick is out of there? OF of Tucker, Springer, and Reddick???

Brad Johnson: Brantley too, don’t forget

Brad Johnson: I do think they expect Tucker to lay claim to a job

Brad Johnson: Ok, I’m throwing in the towel, see ya all next week.

DJ Tanner: Your deep secret on a big leap in 2020 a super young prospect like Luciano or a sleeper in the bigs this year? If you won’t share, I want to guess

Brad Johnson: Remind me next week

Brad Johnson: It’s somebody who’s around prospect 500