Evan Longoria: A Bust and Not a Bust

How could a player be a bust, but at the same time not be a bust? Well let’s find out. Because that’s exactly how Evan Longoria’s 2014 performance could be described. Depending on which statistics you choose to focus on, and of course whether or not you’re a fantasy player (and since you’re reading this in late October, you’re most definitely a fantasy player), your perception of Longoria’s season could differ wildly.

If you look at the advanced metrics, you’ll come a way with the sense that Longoria was a massive disappointment, coming off the worst offensive season of his career. He set career lows in all of the following categories: BB%, OBP/SLG/OPS, ISO, wOBA, HR/FB.

His walk rate dipped below 10% for only the second time in his career and the first time since his 2008 rookie campaign. His OPS fell below .800 for the first time, tumbling over 100 points from his second lowest career mark posted last year. His ISO slipped below .200 for the first time, while his wOBA was barely above the league average and the first time below .360. By all accounts, this was a terrible season at the plate for the typically consistent Longoria. In fact, his wOBA had sat in an extremely tight range between .360 and .378 throughout his entire six year career prior to this season.

And yet, despite the obvious decline in offensive output, he still managed to finish seventh in total dollar value at the third base position. That tells you both how weak the crop of third basemen this season was, as well as how valuable getting 700 plate appearances (a career high) could be, especially while hitting in the middle of the order.

Longoria swung and missed at the highest rate since his debut, yet his strikeout rate actually improved compared to last year. That’s relatively easy to explain though — his Swing% was easily a career high, and when you swing more often, even if you make a bit less contact when you do, you’re going to put the ball in play more frequently and avoid striking out. Still, it’s not exactly the type of skill change you want to see.

Furthermore, Longoria chased pitches outside the zone like never before. His O-Swing% jumped above 30% for the first time, and he’s been below average at making contact with those types of pitches. That might explain what led to the higher SwStk%.

So Longoria got a little swing happy at pitches outside the strike zone. But what about his power? Well, his batted ball distance which had sat in the 287 to 294 foot range over the last four seasons, declined to about 279 feet this year. That’s right around the league average. And so then it’s no surprise that his HR/FB rate also fell near the league average, barely clearing the 10% mark. And it’s not like he was hitting tons of doubles that just fell short of the wall. He went from hitting a double once every 15.7 at-bats in 2013 to just once every 24 at-bats. So this was a legitimate power outage.

At the age of 29, Longoria remains on the right side of 30, so he shouldn’t be prone to precipitous decline just yet. While we could point to some symptoms such as the high O-Swing% and the loss of power, we don’t know what actually caused these problems. With no whispers of playing through injury, one wonders if this was just a one-year blip with a full rebound in order or the first sign that he’s in for an earlier decline phase than we expected. I would bet on the former, but the risk is now elevated that something is amiss.