Josh Harrison Breakout: Real or Fantasy by Jeff Zimmerman October 27, 2014 Josh Harrison was not on anyone’s radar going into last season, yet alone ending up as a top 10 third baseman. The right-hander is now known after hitting .315 with 13 home runs and 18 stolen bases. So what are the chances of him coming close to a repeat season or even showing some improvement? To say Harrison was not well reguarded coming into his season and any time in the past is an understatement. Here are some of his FG+ reports from the last three seasons 2012 Unless you’re planning on drafting Pedro Alvarez and subsequently burying him on the bench as your team strives for fourth place, avoid Harrison. 2013 Josh Harrison has two seasons in the 70s wRC+ range. He projects as the Pirates’ super-utility man, and unless his decent minor league numbers translate perfectly into the majors, which they almost certainly won’t, then his fantasy value should be relatively minimal. He has potential, but not without steady playing time. 2014 Probably just a deep league waiver-wire pickup when injury thrusts him into a short-term starting situation, Josh Harrison is probably not worth thinking about on draft day. Coming into this season, he was not considered a prospect and in 575 PA over three seasons he hit 7 home runs with 13 stolen bases and a .250 average. Not exactly great numbers, but not horrible either. With those stats, he found himself as the Pirates utility man. Coming into the season, he had played both corner outfield spots, second base, third base, short stop and third base. Using one of my favorite little projections tools, I found the chances of him breaking outlast year. Going to my website BaseballHeatmaps, I have a tool which looks at how players similar to the selected player’s projections performed the next season. I looked for 27-year-olds who were within 30 points Harrison’s projection in AVG, OBP, SLG and ISO from 1980 to 2014 with a reliability within 0.1*. Here are his actual and projected values and those players most similar to him. Name Year AB AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS Josh Harrison 2014 – Projected 252 0.254 0.299 0.381 0.127 0.680 Josh Harrison 2014 – Actual 520 0.315 0.347 0.490 0.175 0.837 Name Year AB AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS Randy Ready 1987 350 0.309 0.423 0.520 0.211 0.943 Chris Hoiles 1992 310 0.274 0.384 0.507 0.232 0.890 Alex Ochoa 1999 277 0.300 0.404 0.466 0.166 0.870 Tony Graffanino 1999 130 0.315 0.364 0.492 0.177 0.857 Josh Barfield 2009 20 0.400 0.400 0.450 0.050 0.850 Mike Macfarlane 1991 267 0.277 0.330 0.506 0.229 0.836 Pat Borders 1990 346 0.286 0.319 0.497 0.211 0.816 Tony Armas 1980 628 0.279 0.310 0.500 0.221 0.810 Dave Engle 1983 374 0.305 0.351 0.449 0.144 0.800 Daryl Sconiers 1985 98 0.286 0.371 0.429 0.143 0.799 Kevin Young 1996 132 0.242 0.301 0.470 0.227 0.770 Billy Hatcher 1987 564 0.296 0.352 0.415 0.119 0.767 David Bell 1999 597 0.268 0.331 0.432 0.164 0.764 Jesus Tavarez 1998 11 0.182 0.308 0.455 0.273 0.762 Marlon Anderson 2001 522 0.293 0.337 0.422 0.128 0.758 Nate Schierholtz 2011 335 0.278 0.326 0.430 0.152 0.756 Omar Infante 2008 317 0.293 0.338 0.416 0.123 0.755 Paul Householder 1985 299 0.258 0.320 0.418 0.161 0.738 Eli Marrero 2000 102 0.226 0.302 0.422 0.196 0.723 Tommy Gregg 1990 239 0.264 0.322 0.389 0.126 0.711 Joe Oliver 1992 485 0.270 0.316 0.388 0.118 0.704 Bill Nahorodny 1980 157 0.242 0.287 0.414 0.172 0.701 Luis Lopez 1997 178 0.270 0.330 0.365 0.096 0.695 Rick Leach 1984 88 0.261 0.320 0.375 0.114 0.695 Ronny Cedeno 2010 468 0.256 0.293 0.383 0.126 0.675 Jeremy Reed 2008 286 0.269 0.314 0.360 0.091 0.674 Roger Bernadina 2011 309 0.243 0.302 0.363 0.120 0.664 Carlos Martinez 1992 228 0.263 0.283 0.377 0.114 0.661 Greg Myers 1993 290 0.255 0.298 0.362 0.107 0.660 Mike Matheny 1997 320 0.244 0.294 0.338 0.094 0.631 Max Venable 1984 71 0.239 0.276 0.352 0.113 0.628 Jose Nieves 2002 97 0.289 0.303 0.309 0.021 0.612 Manny Alexander 1998 264 0.227 0.278 0.330 0.102 0.608 Tom Nieto 1987 105 0.200 0.276 0.314 0.114 0.590 Alberto Gonzalez 2010 186 0.247 0.277 0.301 0.054 0.578 Milt Cuyler 1995 88 0.205 0.271 0.307 0.102 0.578 Damon Berryhill 1990 53 0.189 0.254 0.321 0.132 0.575 Rob Johnson 2010 178 0.191 0.293 0.281 0.090 0.574 Jeff Hamilton 1991 94 0.223 0.255 0.298 0.075 0.553 Greg Litton 1991 127 0.181 0.250 0.276 0.095 0.526 Bobby Clark 1982 90 0.211 0.209 0.289 0.078 0.498 Kiko Garcia 1980 311 0.199 0.255 0.235 0.035 0.490 Steve Decker 1992 43 0.163 0.280 0.186 0.023 0.466 Damian Rolls 2004 117 0.162 0.231 0.205 0.043 0.436 Tony Pena 2008 225 0.169 0.189 0.209 0.040 0.398 Sandy Martinez 1997 2 0.000 0.333 0.000 0.000 0.333 Todd Dunwoody 2002 6 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 No name sticks out as a most own fantasy stud. Just a bunch of ‘blah’ players with Nate Schierholtz and Roger Bernadina being the most recent examples. Harrison didn’t have the best season in the list, but it was top ten considering the at bats and overall OPS. Since no player in the last 35 years has broken out with Harrison’s skill set, I will taken my chances and guess he won’t either. That being said, he has value. If he is starting at third base, he is a must own in NL-only leagues. In deeper leagues, I love his versatility off the bench. Depending on your league rules, he could be qualified at 3B (72 games), OF (52 games), 2B (17 games) and SS (8 games). I don’t see myself starting him regularly, but instead using him for the bench to fill in for hitters with tough match ups or who have an off day. The other key is if Harrison struggles and loses his starting playing time. A bench bat is useless in fantasy baseball. Josh Harrison has little upside and a huge amount of downside going into 2015. I just don’t see myself hedging my bets on a player who at best may end being Omar Infante or Tony Graffanino. At worst, he could be back in the minors. He had a great 2014 season, but I would not expect a repeat in 2015. While most owners will expect some regression, he could just fall off the map. Own with caution. *Reliability means the amount of player data vice league average data used for the projection. Players or part-timers will have lower reliability then players that have been playing full time for 3+ years.