Electing the Starting Pitcher All-Loss Team

Last week, I elected the starting pitcher all-profit team, naming the most profitable starting pitchers compared to their NFBC average auction values. Now let’s flip over to losses. Though not as exciting to review, you might take solace in knowing you owned a number of these pitchers if you ended up having a disappointing season.

Compiling an all-loss team is more challenging than an all-profit one. If I paid $1 for a starting pitcher who ended up being terrible all year and losing $10 of value, did I truly incur an $11 loss? Probably not, as that player would have been dropped back into the free agent pool long before he was able to do that much damage to my ratios. So as to not make these losses look more extraordinary than they were in practice, I adjusted all negative earned dollar values to $0 when sorting by the largest losses. However, in the table I shared the actual end of season dollar value, which may have been negative.

Unlike on the hitter side, injuries don’t play as significant a role here due to the presence of two ratio categories. To end the season with a significant loss, the pitcher is going to need to be bad and record a lot of innings. That differs from hitters who could typically rack up so many more counting stats with additional playing time to offset any incremental damage a weak batting average does. Still, I arbitrarily used a minimum of 140 innings to rank the earnings losers.

With a 3.64 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, Luis Castillo was far from bad. But regression across the board added up and made him the biggest loser among starting pitchers who didn’t miss a significant chunk of innings due to injury. The ERA and WHIP increases were mostly due to luck regression, as he overperformed both his SIERA and xERA in 2023, which likely inflated his draft day cost. Furthermore, his strikeout rate plummeted as he posted the lowest SwStk% and CSW% of his career. His fastball velocity also finished at the lowest of his career, which means this is something to watch for next year during spring training. Finally, his team’s offense gave him little help, resulting in just 11 wins. Since he’s never been much of a called strike kinda guy, he’ll need to get back those lost whiffs to return to the elite.

Kevin Gausman’s shoulder issues during spring training was the first warning sign. It’s too bad that rather than avoiding rostering him at my auctions, I ended up scooping him up at a discount to his projected dollar value thinking I got an undervalued ace. Oops! Though his results were back to the Gausman we expected in the second half (2.92 ERA), he really wasn’t himself all year. He finished with just a 21.4% strikeout rate, his lowest since 2018, and that mark was even worse in the second half at just 18.8%. It took a serious reversal of fortune in BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB rate in that second half to turn his season around, as it certainly wasn’t due to a rebound in underlying skills. His velocity was also down, plus his trademark splitter posted its lowest SwStk% over his entire career. In fact, it was the first time it fell below 20%, which is actually pretty amazing. I have no idea what to expect from the soon-to-be 34-year-old next season, as it all comes down to those strikeouts returning.

Pablo López couldn’t maintain his strikeout rate surge from 2023, as it fell back to just above his career average, despite the fact that his fastball velocity not only sustained last year’s bump, but actually gain another 0.1 MPH. As a result, I’m actually surprised his strikeout rate dropped so much. Anyway, his skills remained strong, but he underperformed both his SIERA and xERA thanks to an inflated BABIP and his highest HR/FB rate since 2019. He might be undervalued next year and I’m far more confident in his 2025 than Gausman’s.

The further we get from Logan Webb’s breakout 2021 and career high strikeout rate, the more that strikeout rate looks like a fluke. His SwStk% has now declined for three straight years and sits well below the league average. He’s made up for it so far with a ton of called strikes, but I wonder how long that can continue. He still generates gobs of grounders and displays sterling control, so there’s a high floor here. But the lack of strikeouts caps his upside and increases the risk of bad luck ruining his ratios.

Zac Gallen missed some time to injury, but still managed to record 148 innings. While his ERA was more or less in line with expectations, it was the 1.26 WHIP that really took a bite out of his value. That was due to a combination of a decline in strikeout rate to a career low, jump in walk rate, back to his pre-2022 days, along with the highest BABIP of his career. That’s a lot more baserunners. I was never enamored with Gallen’s skill set as it was light on swinging strikes, and he has almost always overperformed his xERA. It’s clear he must be doing something not being captured, but without knowing what, I always wonder how easily that hidden skill could disappear.

I’m surprised to see Freddy Peralta’s name here, but perhaps his mere $6 of earnings is due to how his ratios are so easy to find on free agency and don’t offer a whole lot of value anymore. Like Gallen, his ERA was in line, but his WHIP jumped to 1.21, the second highest of his career. His strikeout rate dropped to the second lowest of his career thanks to a drop in called strike rate to the lowest of his career, which I guess is less concerning than if the decline occurred in his SwStk%. His walk rate also jumped back above 9%. The increased walk rate, decline in strikeout rate, plus a small increase in BABIP, all conspired to push his WHIP to heights seen just once before. This seems like a level he should remain at.

George Kirby was the only double digit earner on this list, but because he was also one of the highest paid starting pitchers, he still managed to end up as one of the biggest value losers. What’s odd is that his season was nearly identical to his 2023. His ERA rose a bit, as did his WHIP, but he stuck out seven more batters and won an extra game. Are starting pitchers dramatically overpriced in NFBC auction leagues? I’ve never played in one, but I feel like I’ve read that the hitting/pitching split is much closer to 50/50 there versus other auction leagues that tend to go between 67/33 to 70/30 as their hitting/pitching splits. If that’s the case, then yeah, for whatever reason, NFBC owners are overpaying for starting pitching. Of course, it’s all relative, so if everyone’s doing it, you kind of have to follow or you’ll end up with a great hitting squad, but ones across a bunch of pitching categories.

Wow, it’s shocking to see that Aaron Nola lost his owners money considering he was coming off a 4.46 ERA, which should have reduced his auction cost. Instead, he enjoys a rebound season and still loses $14! His strikeout rate did fall to the lowest of his career over a full season, while his WHIP jumped to its highest since 2019. But everything else looks normal, so if he was fairly priced at the auction, he should have earned back his cost. I do worry about the loss of strikeouts, which are now down two straight seasons.

Zach Eflin’s story is easy to tell — his strikeout rate plummeted to its lowest since 2019, while his WHIP jumped from 1.02 in 2023 to 1.15 this season. Like some other names on this list, Eflin’s strikeouts mostly come from high called strike rates, though has gotten into double digit SwStk% marks every so often. That didn’t happen this season and his mediocre CSW% finally caught up to him. The control here is elite though, ensuring an excellent WHIP, but without his 2023 strikeout rate, he couldn’t possibly finished with a sub-1.10 WHIP. He also seemingly received significantly less run support. He ended up with around the same ERA, but in just three fewer starts, won six fewer games. As much as we hate the wins stat and valuing starting pitchers by their totals, it does make a difference in their earnings. I wouldn’t bet on Eflin’s strikeout rate returning to the mid-20% range, which means I’d rather bet on a higher strikeout guy whose ratios might not be projected as well.