Electing the Hitter All-Loss Team

A couple of weeks ago, I elected the hitter all-profit team, naming the most profitable players at each position compared to their NFBC average auction value. Now let’s flip over to losses. Though not as exciting to review, you might take solace in knowing you owned a number of these hitters if you ended up having a disappointing season.

Compiling an all-loss team is far more challenging than an all-profit one. First, if I paid $1 for a hitter who ended up being terrible all year and losing $10 of value, did I truly incur an $11 loss? Probably not, as that player would have been dropped back into the free agent pool long before he was able to do that much damage. So as to not make these losses look more extraordinary than they were in practice, I adjusted all negative earned dollar values to $0 when sorting by the largest losses. However, in the table I shared the actual end of season dollar value, which may have been negative.

The next challenge was dealing with injuries. Technically, Ronald Acuña Jr. was the biggest loser of the year. His average auction value was far and away the highest among all players at $62, but injury limited him to just 222 plate appearances. So of course he was going to deliver a heavy loss. But sharing a roster filled with those who missed a significant chunk of the season due to injury isn’t insightful or interesting. So I tried to only include hitters whose primary driver of disappointing fantasy earnings was due to performance, and not a lack of PAs. That’s pretty subjective, of course, but all the hitters I included recorded at least 400 PAs. Obviously, the hitters who did miss time would have likely earned more value had they remained healthy, but they were so disappointing when taking the field that the gap between them and the next biggest loser who remained healthy all season still may not have closed even with better health.

Yes, this was the fewest PAs J.T. Realmuto recorded over a full season since his first full year in 2015, thanks to injury. But he would have been a disappointment anyway, as his stolen base total collapsed. He swiped just two bases this season, after stealing at least 13 in each of the last three seasons. Everything else here looks pretty normal, but heading into his age 34 season, it’s anyone’s guess whether the steals will return. Before 2021, he stole double digit bases just once, so it was actually a surprise to see him suddenly start running so often for three straight seasons when he turned 30. I would pay for low single digit steals, with anything more being a bonus.

It’s pretty incredible that Mitch Garver finished the season having lost value, despite the fact that he amassed a career high PAs. While his power declined, it was the .172 batting average that crushed him. His strikeout rate spiked to a career worst, while his BABIP fell to the lowest of his career and the lowest among all hitters with at least 400 PAs. His xwOBA suggests there was little bad fortune involved, so this poor performance appears well deserved. He will maintain catcher eligibility, so he’s not a bad second catcher in deep leagues, particularly those that count OBP instead of batting average. Of course, this playing time figures to be cut heavily next season.

What happened to the super reliable Freddie Freeman?! The underlying skills mostly look similar, but the power has dropped back to his down 2022 level, and not surprisingly, he couldn’t maintain his 2023 stolen base pace. But perhaps the real surprise was his BABIP and batting average. His .306 BABIP was his lowest since 2012 and the second lowest of his entire career! What’s amazing is that he posted a 22.7% LD%, which is above the league average…and that was the lowest mark of his career! He’s been the poster boy for a pristine batted ball profile, but it was slightly more human this year. Perhaps age is finally taking a toll.

Yes, yes, injuries definitely played a role in Austin Riley’s disappointing output. But still, he finished the season with just a .338 wOBA, well below his three full seasons, while his HR/FB rate slipped and home run pace was significantly below expectations. His batting average also fell, as his BABIP fell to a career low over a full season, which coupled with the down home run rate, hampered that mark. The good news here is that his HardHit% finished at a career high, while both his maxEV and Barrel% were elite as usual. So the down HR/FB rate looks like a complete fluke. With an xwOBA well above his actual wOBA, he’s one of the more obvious rebound candidates in 2025.

After a career year in 2023, I was quite curious how Matt Olson would follow up. It wasn’t good. In fact, it was as if 2023 never even happened. But not only did Olson regress to his pre-2023 performance, he was actually worse. His HR/FB rate fell to a career low, and his wOBA dropped as well to a career low over a full season. All his Statcast metrics looks pretty good, though not quite as good as some previous seasons, so it’s hard to understand how he managed just a 15.5% HR/FB rate. But it happened and his xwOBA suggests there was no bad luck involved in his overall performance. I guess his 2023 should remind us what he’s ultimately capable of, but when forecasting his future, let’s kind of pretend it didn’t happen and assume he’ll return to the 30-homer plateau with a middling average and a good RBI total.

My gosh, what was going on in Atlanta, as Ozzie Albies in the third name on this last (SO FAR!). Albies of course dealt with injury, limiting him to just 435 PAs. However, excluding his injury-shortened 2022, he posted the worst wOBA of his career. Furthermore, his HR/FB rate and ISO both slipped to career worsts. Who would have thought he’d post just a 6.8% HR/FB rate?! We think of him as a power hitter, but much of his output is due to his high FB% and low strikeout rate. His HardHit% has always been mediocre and his Barrel% has never reached double digits. So this season feels like the ultimate downside of all his mediocre rates. That said, he’s still heading into his age 28 season, so it would be silly not to think he’ll get back to at least the 20-homer level. Combine that with double digit steals and he’s still a top tier second baseman.

Injuries also took a bite out of Mookie Betts’ value, limiting him to the fewest PAs in a full season in his career. But his HR/FB rate suddenly plummeted to its lowest since his first full season all the way back in 2015. Both his HardHit% and Barrel% dropped to their lowest since 2017, which was a major surprise for the 31-year-old. He did salvage some of his value by stealing 16 bases, tied for his most since 2019. But the lack of power and his hefty auction day cost (plus the injury, of course), made him a disappointment. I don’t know what happened to his home run power, but you have to assume it’ll rebound at least somewhat.

Trea Turner actually performed pretty well while on the field, so maybe most of his loss was due to injury, but it’s difficult to determine that. Or perhaps he was just overpriced at $37 after coming off the second most home runs of his career and 30 steals. Everything this year was pretty normal, though his steals pace dropped off a bit and it would have been unlikely for him to reach 30 steals given the same number of PAs. His xwOBA suggests he overperformed, perhaps because he posted his lowest LD% since 2017, and yet his BABIP was right in line with his career average.

Fernando Tatis Jr. was another tough call, because how much of his losses were due to him recording just 438 PAs thanks to injury? Still, a $34 loss is massive, so how much of that loss would he have actually made up if given an additional 200 PAs? Anyway, his results represented a partial rebound off his 2023, as his HR/FB rate increased a bit, but still fell far short of his 2019-2021 seasons. His stolen base pace was way down though, as he swiped just 11 bases after 29 in 2023 and 25 in 2021. Interestingly, his xwOBA suggests he was seriously unlucky, so perhaps the big rebound is coming in 2025. It might be the cheapest he’ll come in years.

It was always going to be hard to follow-up a 32 home runs and 37 steal season, but fantasy owners were still betting big on Julio Rodríguez. His power collapsed, as his HR/FB rate fell to the low teens, while his ISO was shockingly below league average. That’s quite surprising given that his HardHit% and maxEV were both fantastic, albeit down from his 2022 and 2023 levels, while his Barrel%, also down, remained in double digits. Typically that combination of metrics results in a significantly higher HR/FB rate and ISO, which makes me extremely optimistic for a rebound in 2025. His steals pace was also down, and it’s anyone’s guess if he’ll get back to the 30 steals plateau. With 700+ PAs again, he might, though whether it’s closer to 30 or 40 is up in the air. He should be better priced in 2025, but still might not leave that much room for profit.

Amazingly Michael Harris II is the fourth Braves hitter on this list. It’s no surprise then that their offense disappointed and scored just the 15th most runs in baseball after running away with the runs scored lead in 2023. Harris II also battle injury this year, but was disappointing when at the plate as well. The home run power was fine, but his BABIP dropped dramatically, while his stolen base total was cut in half. He’ll need to up his FB% to become a true home run force, which I think he could be capable of given his strong Statcast metrics. At just 24 next season, he might be an ideal target as an undervalued name with serious profit potential.

Count Luis Robert Jr. as another name who missed time to injury, but was also a serious disappointment when he came to the plate. After a major breakout during his first full season in 2023, his power slid, while his strikeout rate spiked over 30%, where he stood during his 2020 rookie season. Perhaps playing for a historically bad team messed up his focus, but whatever the explanation, it wasn’t good. He posted just a .285 wOBA along with a .224 batting average, while his runs scored and RBI paces were a far cry from what he posted in 2023. He somehow managed to steal a career high 23 bases, but that was the only saving grace here. The 27-year-old should come cheaper than ever next season, which should make him a great buy.

Corbin Carroll finished June with just two home runs. He then went on a tear by hitting 17 in just July and August alone, including 11 in August. Even with that, he was still a disappointment, despite the fact that he finished with 22 homers and 121 runs scored, the fifth most in baseball. That’s because his BABIP plummeted to just .256, resulting in a weak .231 batting average, and while his 35 steals were seventh most in baseball, that was still 19 fewer than he swiped in 2023. He really needs to fix his batted ball profile, which was light on line drives and heavy on pop-ups, before we can count on him contributing positive value in batting average again. The power is sustainable though, but it’s anyone’s guess how often he’ll attempt a steal. Part of the drop in steals is the loss of OBP, of course, so he has a good shot of returning to 40 steals at least.

Randy Arozarena went from one pitcher friendly environment to another this season, and he was a disappointment in both. The primary driver of his disappointing output was a career worst BABIP, which fell below .300 for the first time. It led to just a .219 batting average, thanks to a career worst LD% and a FB% jumping above 40% for the first time. Combined with a high IFFB%, he produced lots of easy outs. Oh, and a weak supporting cast resulted in just 60 RBI, his lowest career mark as well. That’s a shockingly low total considering he spent the vast majority of his time in the third, fourth, and fifth slots in the batting order. I’d love to see him in a better hitting environment.