Electing the Starting Pitcher All-Profit Team

Last week in honor of Election Day, I elected the hitter all-profit team, comparing NFBC average auction values (AAV) to end of seasons values earned as calculated by the FanGraphs auction calculator. Today, I’ll flip on over to starting pitchers.

I would have limited this group to nine starting pitchers, as that’s how many slots an NFBC roster has, but each of the names with a profit of 11 units were interesting enough that I couldn’t leave any off.

Paul Skenes went from fourth overall ranked prospect to vaulting to the Majors after recording just 34 professional innings in the minor leagues. And then he goes ahead and posts a 1.96 ERA over 133 innings! Is that insane or what?! Oh, and he also struck out 33.1% of opposing batters, walked just 6.2% of them and even posted a superb batted ball distribution, with a GB% over 50%, but also somehow an elite IFFB%. It’s rare that a pitcher could both induce grounders and also generate a high rate of popups on the fly balls they do get.

His SIERA and xERA suggest some luck was involved (of course there had to be, who has a sub-2.00 ERA talent anyway?!), but his SIERA still ranked second and xERA ranked first among 98 pitchers with at least 130 innings recorded. If I have to nitpick, it’s on the SwStk% and CSW%. His SwStk% ranked 14th among that same group and CSW 12th, but his strikeout rate ranked second. That seems like a bit of a mismatch. So although both his SwStk% and CSW% marks were clearly fantastic, they don’t appear quite good enough to have justified a 30%+ strikeout rate. One explanation here is a better than average foul strike rate, which is the least repeatable strike type from year to year.

So I do think there’s serious risk of regression on the strikeout rate front, though it’s not really a stretch to say that for anyone after posting a 33.1% mark as a rookie since repeating such an elite mark ain’t easy. That said, with double digit SwStk% marks on all his pitches, it’s always possible he improves the whiffiness of his pitches enough to more closely match his SwStk%/CSW% with a similar strikeout rate next season. I’m not going to be paying the price to find out though.

It’s pretty clear that Seth Lugo is doing something not captured by both SIERA and xERA, as he has overperformed for the majority of his career, though not every season. It’s quite amusing that his strikeout rate fell to its lowest since 2017, and yet his ERA finished at its lowest since he was a full-time reliever back in 2019. There’s absolutely nothing in his skill set that is exciting, with mediocre rates all around, and yet whether it’s a low BABIP, low HR/FB rate, high LOB%, or some combo of those, he somehow limits the runs allowed. He’s the type that will never end up on my fantasy team, but kudos to those willing to bet on his continued SIERA/xERA overperformance!

Ronel Blanco recorded a no-hitter in his first start of the year, which undoubtedly led to him getting picked up in nearly every league. He was rostered in just three of the 83 NFBC leagues, but I’m guessing he was on a roster in all 83 after that first game! Like Lugo, he used smoke, mirrors, and magic to prevent run scoring despite mediocre underlying skills. The strikeout rate was there, but he allowed a double digit walk rate, which normally wouldn’t pair well with his fly ball tendency. Luckily, he easily led baseball with the lowest BABIP, which also helped him post the highest LOB% of those with at least 150 innings pitched.

He is most certainly deserving of a better than average BABIP given his fly ball rate and IFFB%. However, xERA already accounts for actual batted balls, and still calculates a 3.97 mark, far higher than his 2.80 actual ERA. I think he’s an easy bust call in 2025.

Though it didn’t affect my league finishes, I’m still annoyed with myself for failing to roster Chris Sale in either of the two leagues he was available in. I had mentally wanted to target him, but given the speed at which the draft and auction unfolded, it just slipped my mind to save a roster spot for him. This was truly vintage Sale and owners should have breathed a sigh of relief that they got a full season out of him. Don’t forget, this is the most innings he’s thrown since 2017! The odds of him making it through another full season at age 36 seem pretty low. I’d say he’s a better shallow league buy next year so he’ll be more easily replaceable if he ends up on the IL.

Targeting Jack Flaherty was one of my favorite calls from the preseason. His strikeout rate fully rebounded, actually matching his career high, supported by a career best CSW%, thanks to both his slider and knuckle curve generating strong SwStk% marks at the same time. Previously, only one or the other generated a high mark. His walk rate also plunged to a new career best, and that’s really all he needed to get back to the guy he was back in 2018 and 2019 with the Cardinals. I do admit I’m a bit worried about how he ended the season, which carried over into the postseason, as his strikeout rate decline and walk rate spiked. I’m not sure how his velocity was during the postseason, but it was down in his last two starts. It’s something to remember to monitor next spring training.

My gosh, who saw Reynaldo Lopez coming?! Clearly few did, as he was only rostered in 26 NFBC leagues at an average price of 2 units. He was a pretty solid reliever the previous three seasons, which followed some awful results as a starter. Who would have thunk that a second try at starting would be the charm?! Even though he moved from the bullpen, he still managed to post the second highest strikeout rate of his career, though that mark, along with his CSW% were merely good, not great.

What’s important to highlight here is what’s been a theme for a number of pitchers on this list — the appearance of some really good fortune. He massively overperformed both his SIERA and xERA, thanks to the highest LOB% in baseball among pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched. In fact, it was the fourth highest LOB% since 2019! Needless to say, don’t bank on that happening again. He’s always posted a better than league average BABIP, probably thanks to his high FB%, but his HR/FB rate was the second lowest of his career. All of this is to say that although the skills were solid and much better than expected, he’s facing severe regression risk next year. Oh, and that ignores the fact had hadn’t thrown 100+ innings since 2019 before this year. That’s worth remembering considering he already missed time this season to both arm and shoulder issues.

Bryce Miller was another name on my preseason hit list (along with Flaherty), but his skills only improved marginally form his 2023 debut. His strikeout rate inched up, despite a small decline in SwStk%, though he did increase his CStr%, which gets me less excited. Most of the difference here was a .237 BABIP and inflated LOB%. I feel like his stuff should yield a higher strikeout rate, but yhe problem here is that as good as his fastball is, he uses his sinker far too often, and it stinks at generating whiffs, and it’s a similar story for his slider. I think a pitch mix change could really help here, given the foundation of a fantastic four-seamer and the effectiveness of his new splitter. But unless and until that actually happens, he’s likely going to be overvalued in 2025 drafts.

Though he couldn’t quite maintain last year’s velocity bump (though some of that was because he moved back into the rotation full time this year after a stint in the bullpen last season), San Manaea still managed the second highest velocity of his career. It didn’t really make a difference in his strikeout rate though, as he posted a higher one back in 2021 and wasn’t significantly higher than 2022. His walk rate also remained elevated, setting a new career worst. Overall, his strikeout and walk rates don’t seem to support a pitcher who just posted the lowest ERA of his career. But at the risk of sounding like a broken record, it was the .245 BABIP that ensured the strong results. His xERA suggests he was somewhat deserving of a lower BABIP, with the lowest mark of his carer. However, without significant improvements in strikeout and/or walk rates, I’m not buying a follow-up here, as I’d have to bet on his improved contact quality against to be repeated, and that’s never a bet I’m willing to take.

It’s pretty amazing that Tarik Skubal, the ninth most expensive starting pitcher in NFBC auction leagues, still earned a hefty profit. While he enjoyed a half season breakout in 2023, it was anyone’s guess whether he could sustain that level over a full season. The answer was a resounding yes, as his performance barely dropped off. Even crazier is he wasn’t done after his 2023 velocity spike, as that fastball shot up again to average 97 MPH. It didn’t have any effect on his SwStk% or strikeout rate, but does give me more confidence in his ability to sustain these elite results. I have absolutely no performance questions, the only concerns right now would stem from his health. If that’s okay, he’s a lock at or near the top of boards.

It’s always fun rostering players coming over from foreign leagues, because you never know exactly what you’ll get, and the price is usually depressed enough that there’s lots of room for profit. Shota Imanaga owners rejoiced, as he was probably better than anyone could have projected. His splitter was impossible to make contact with, while both his slider and changeup generated excellent SwStk% marks. What’s crazy though is how low his CStr% was, which resulted in a mediocre CSW%. That’s likely because of his pitch mix, with nearly 31% splitters, a pitch that will almost always either get a swing and a miss, a swing and a ball in play, or a called ball. It’s not often they land in the strike zone for a called strike, and if it does, it was likely a mistake! Still, it’s an uninspiring CSW% that makes me wonder if he could sustain a 25.1% strikeout rate. I also wouldn’t bet on a repeat of that 4% walk rate, just because that’s hard to do. I like the overall skill set, but a sub-3.00 ERA might make him overvalued next year.