Early 2015 Pitcher Projections

A few days ago I released a way too early set of hitter projection values. Today, it is the pitchers’ turn. Truthfully, I wasn’t 100% sure I would release them. It requires a person using them to use their brain somewhat. I decided to go ahead and release and hope most people read a few lines of the article to understand how the spreadsheet is set up.

Notes on the data (PLEASE READ)

• I averaged the rest of season Steamer and/or ZIPS projections. Sometimes only one or the other was available so only one was used at times. The rest of season the projections are a good attempt at getting the player’s talent level right now. The values are close to the 2015 projection with the exception of the September numbers.

• Because the innings pitched will be completely different for starters and relievers, I had to pick one and went with 200 IP. The relievers insane stats, especially if they have any Save attached to them, really stood out of place when set to 200 IP. The user will need to adjust the IP Adjusted Column (B2) to set the IP to the desired value. I have gone ahead and adjusted the IP number for the relievers in the first 20 list pitchers. To download the file navigate to File → Download As → Select your file.

• If some values just seem too far off, go ahead and insert your own values in the 2014 ROS values. The Total Value will update accordingly.

• For the Total Value, I used the Standing Points Gain method I describe here. I have not updated the equation for 2014 season leagues, but it should be close to the same values.

Link to 2015 Pitcher Projections

Just One Way Too Obvious Note: Clayton Kershaw is a good pitcher.

We hoped you liked reading Early 2015 Pitcher Projections by Jeff Zimmerman!

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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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@yontodd
Guest
@yontodd

Any projections for Matt Harvey?

Paul
Guest
Paul

He will change his first name to his last name; replace his last name with “Dent”; and have two disturbingly different halves of 2015.

Matt C
Guest
Matt C

Thanks for making me spit my coffee all over my desk.