Impact Prospect Ranking: RH Starting Pitchers (Tier 1 of 2)

I began the year at RotoGraphs by producing a semi-regularly-updated Top 25 prospects list. For the second half of the year and into the offseason, I’ll be rotating expanded Top 10, 12 or 15 lists (on a far more regular basis) by position: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF/RF, CF, RHSP (tier 1), RHSP (tier 2), LHSP. Whether you play traditional formats of fantasy baseball or dynasty/keeper styles (or you’re just a prospect nut like me), you’ll surely find these lists indispensable. You can read the Impact Catchers, the Impact First Basemen, the Impact Second Basemen, the Impact Third Basemen, the Impact Shortstops, the Impact Corner Outfielders and the Impact Center-fielders.

#1 Taijuan Walker | Mariners | ETA: 2014 (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
21	15.0	8.40	7.80	47.2 %	3.60	6.00	5.02	0.3	-0.2

August 22 Notes: Injury woes have thrown a wet blanket on Walker’s 2014 season campaign but he currently appears to be healthy and he could be a valuable arm for the Mariners down the stretch and (possibly) into the playoffs. I’ve never been a fan of his delivery, which puts added strain on his shoulder so I’m not convinced he’s going to be a long-term impact pitcher. For now, though, he’s the best of the bunch.

#2 Archie Bradley | Diamondbacks | ETA: 2015 (P)

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Age	G	GS	IP	H	HR	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP
21	17	17	82.2	75	2	8.17	4.79	3.92	3.80

August 22 Notes: Like Taijuan Walker — and far too many young pitchers in recent years — Bradley has dealt with his fair share of injuries. Healthy prior to 2014, he’s pitched just 82.2 innings this season and has been just so-so at the Triple-A level while suffering from inconsistent command and control. He needs a little more polish than Walker but he’s a safer longer-term bet.

#3 Lucas Giolito | Nationals | ETA: 2017 (P)

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Age	G	GS	IP	H	HR	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP
19	20	20	98.0	70	7	10.10	2.57	2.20	3.18

August 22 Notes: Continuing our theme of pitcher injuries, Giolito is now fully recovered after Tommy John surgery (which occurred after just one pro appearance). He’s been dominant in Low-A ball with just 28 walks and an opponents’ batting average of .197 (So much for rust). His combination of control and velocity is rarely seen in such young arms (20 years old). He could be a fast mover in 2015 once the kids’ gloves are off now that the injury is significantly in the rear-view mirror.

#4 Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | ETA: 2015 (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
21	19.2	7.78	1.37	63.3 %	1.83	2.52	2.50	0.7	0.4

August 22 Notes: Previously a very conservative organization when it came to developing prospects, Toronto has pushed Sanchez aggressively in 2014. His recent assignment in the Jays’ big league bullpen is only temporary and he’ll take his strong ground-ball rates and strikeout stuff to the starting rotation for 2015 and will form a killer 1-2 punch with Marcus Stroman in a talented, young Jays staff.

#5 Noah Syndergaard | Mets | ETA: 2015 (P)

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Age	G	GS	IP	H	HR	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP
21	24	24	124.1	146	11	9.77	2.97	4.85	3.79

August 22 Notes: Previously an organization-mate of Aaron Sanchez, Syndergaard’s development in the Mets system has been a little bit slower but he may one day have the better career (He’s less of an injury risk due to his delivery and frame). His Triple-A numbers don’t look great but he survived pitching his home games in one of the most offense-favorable parks in the minor leagues — and at the age of 21.

#6 Dylan Bundy | Orioles | ETA: 2015 (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
19	1.2	0.00	5.40	20.0 %	0.00	4.89	8.42	0.1	0.0

August 22 Notes: Bundy missed all of the 2013 season and most of ’14 has been a write-off, as well, due to injuries. Once the most talented arm in the minors, he’s now just looking to stay healthy and get his career back on track……..

#7 Tyler Glasnow | Pirates | ETA: 2015 (P)

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Age	G	GS	IP	H	HR	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP
20	22	22	118.1	67	2	11.26	4.34	1.67	2.63

August 28 notes: In three professional seasons, minor league hitters are batting just .157 off of Glasnow, including .167 in 118.1 innings for the 2014 season. With Jameson Taillon’s injury slowing his development, the two top arms could reach the Majors around the same time in late 2015. 

#8 Robert Stephenson | Reds | ETA: 2015 (P)

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Age	G	GS	IP	H	HR	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP
21	26	25	129.2	111	18	9.09	4.93	4.93	4.73

August 28 notes: The 21-year-old Stephenson’s control took a big step backward in 2014 at the Double-A level but his stuff is still among the best in the minors. Look for him to be one of the top rebound prospects for 2015. 

#9 Kohl Stewart | Twins | ETA: 2017 (P)

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Age	G	GS	IP	H	HR	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP
19	19	19	87.0	75	4	6.41	2.48	2.59	3.73

August 28 notes: After missing almost a month with shoulder soreness, Stewart was unable to go even two innings during his first game back before suffering the same fate. Rest and rehab will hopefully fix what ails him in the offseason but shoulder injuries are scary things. 

#10 Jon Gray | Rockies | ETA: 2015 (P)

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Age	G	GS	IP	H	HR	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP
22	24	24	124.1	107	10	8.18	2.97	3.91	3.44

August 28 notes: Gray — the third overall selection in the 2013 season — hasn’t had a bad season… but he hasn’t exactly dominated either. He can fire his heater up into the high 90s but he needs to sharpen both his command and his secondary offerings. 

#11 Alex Meyer | Twins | ETA: 2015 (P)

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Age	G	GS	IP	H	HR	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP
24	26	26	129.1	114	10	10.65	4.38	3.41	3.65

August 28 notes: After an injury-marred 2013 season, Meyer has rebounded to show durability in ’14. The right-hander has missed a ton of bats at the Double-A level with 153 strikeouts in 129.1 innings of work. Look for him to settle into the Twins’ rotation at some point in 2015 after be polishes his command.

#12 Jose Berrios | Twins | ETA: 2015 (P)

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Age	G	GS	IP	H	HR	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP
20	24	24	137.0	111	6	9.00	2.30	2.43	2.84

August 28 notes: Berrios, a Puerto Rico native, has enjoyed a breakout 2014. He’s shown swing-and-miss stuff coupled with outstanding control and solid command. He’s another high-ceiling Twins arm that could reach the Majors in 2015. 

#13 Jameson Taillon | Pirates | ETA: 2015 (P)

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Age	G	GS	IP	H	HR	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP
21	27	26	149.1	144	9	8.80	3.19	3.68	3.37

August 28 notes: Taillon, 22, missed all of 2014 thanks to Tommy John surgery but the injury hasn’t dampened enthusiasm for his future.

#14 Eddie Butler | Rockies | ETA: 2015 (P)

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Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	RA9-WAR	WAR
23	5.1	3.38	5.06	52.2 %	10.13	4.07	5.24	-0.2	0.1

August 28 notes: Butler’s season was going quite well until he received a surprise big league promotion that was immediately followed up with an injury. Since returning, he’s been inconsistent.

#15 Luis Severino | Yankees | ETA: 2016 (P)

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Age	G	GS	IP	H	HR	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP
20	23	23	108.2	88	3	10.19	2.15	2.48	2.41

August 28 notes: Severino has been pushed aggressively through the Yankees system in 2014. Just 20, he opened the year in Low-A ball but has since reached Double-A after a brief layover in High-A ball (four games). He has swing-and-miss stuff but his secondary stuff needs more consistency and he might end up closing out ball games.