DFS Pitching Preview: April 26, 2022

Our pitching in MLB DFS isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

Pricing differs at the top of the pitching chain today across the sites. The gut reaction is to grab the cheaper options, but that isn’t always the correct option. The field likes to gravitate to the cheaper option. When we go along with the field on a pitching choice, we have to differentiate with our hitters. Don’t certain price points lock you into a chalky build.

THE ACES: Carlos Rodon, Luis Severino, and Kevin Gausman

Carlos Rodon is the top pitching choice, by far. He has the lowest SIERA on the slate since 2021 (2.81), along with the highest K/9 (12.87) and elite power prevention (0.78 HR/9 on a 6.3% barrel rate allowed). As if that weren’t enough, he draws the worst offense in the league against left-handed pitching in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Salary and ownership aside, he’s the optimal choice.

Health is always a question we attach to Rodon, but he’s been just fine to start the season and we’re reassured to see his fastball averaging out at a career-high 96.5 mph. All of the signals point toward him being good to keep going for the time being.

While we’re on the topic of power pitching coming off of injury, Luis Severino is too cheap on both sites. His strikeouts are lower than he used to compile, but his fastball is averaging at 97.3 mph and his 12.7% swinging-strike rate is near his career-high of 13.0% and his O-Swing% is over 35.0% for the first time ever. Waiting and seeing with Severino is a big mistake because the matchups only get tougher than the Orioles most of the time and his price can get over $10k any slate now.

The Orioles projected lineup has struck out 25.0% of the time against right-handed pitching. Their wOBA is under .300 and their ISO sits at .150 over that span. Even in Yankee Stadium, where it’s tough to pitch, Severino is the top spend-down option for both sites.

The next-best spend-down option at DraftKings is Kevin Gausman, whose 3.29 SIERA since 2021 is a far drop from Rodon, but the drop from Gausman to the next-lowest is the 3.63 of Max Fried. His 10.64 K/9 is more than enough for us to combat the Red Sox, whose projected lineup has struck out 23.0% of the time against right-handed pitching since 2021. The Red Sox can beat anyone with power, but Gausman’s 0.85 HR/9 allowed is an opposing force on which we can bank.

Gausman is far cheaper on DraftKings, but he should then go lower-owned on FanDuel. That said, Gausman lineup builds will be similar to those featuring Rodon, so we still have to manage our hitting to find some leverage. If I need leverage on FanDuel when playing Gausman, I’d rather just play Rodon or Severino. On DraftKings is where we can double-ace for a discount and maybe already bake in a build that strays from the beaten path.

THE SP2: Max Fried and Eduardo Rodriguez

If Gausman is gonna be chalky on DraftKings, we can pivot over to Max Fried pretty simply. Fried is unsexy as all hell, but if Gausman gets beat up a bit, Fried is in a great spot against a lowly Cubs bunch, which strikes out a ton. He’s a bit overpriced, but this is why no one will play him, gives Severino and Gausman in the same price tier. When a good real-life pitcher is overpriced in a great spot, we should have some investment in him.

This is a ceiling spot for Fried. One we don’t run toward in single-entry, but one on whom we could go overweight in mass multi-entry tournaments. Just beware that this will cost in the neighborhood of 35-to-45% ownership to do so.

Eduardo Rodriguez is the nuts cheap play. Sure, the Twins have a lot of right-handed power, but for $6,300, who cares? The Twins projected lineup has struck out 24.8% of the time against left-handed pitching since 2021 and Rodriguez has 10.31 K.9 over that stretch. Sure, Severino is the sexy SP who can perform at ace-levels with the next-to-nuts matchup and Gausman should be totally fine against the Red Sox; but — factoring in price — Rodriguez is the ideal direction in which we’d like to go at SP2. He’s good. He’s cheap. He’s got baked-in strikeouts in a matchup where there are strikeouts baked into the lineup. And he should go underowned because of all the ownership gobbled up by the other four we’ve just discussed.

When we have five great plays, they tend to cannibalize each other’s ownership. We shouldn’t ignore ownership for this reason. We should take hard stands, though.

In single-entry, I’m going with some combination of Rodon-Severino-Gausman. In three-max, I’m mixing the three. If I were playing MME (which I might), I’m likely keeping this pool tight, going overweight on Severino, Gausman, and Rodriguez while going even with the field on Rodon and underweight on Fried. With ownership high among five arms, which are clearly the best five arms to play, we’re all gonna have to differentiate with bats.