Derek Holland Is All Grown Up
The kid with the creepy mustache turned in his finest season in 2013. Although it wasn’t backed up by the win column, Derek Holland was one of the finest starters in the American League, besting the likes of David Price, Doug Fister, Jon Lester, and Hisashi Iwakuma by way of wins above replacement. Perhaps because he only managed to eek out 10 wins, his 3.42 ERA (3.44 FIP) and 189 strikeouts seemed to be often overlooked in fantasy circles. In formats which don’t value wins, however, Holland was ace-like.
While he might appear to be barely old enough to drive, Holland is actually 27 entering the 2014 season, and his 2013 campaign seems to have all the hallmarks of the proverbial “learning how to pitch” versus “throw”.
Historically, Holland’s slider has been one of his more effective pitches. In 2012, Holland seemed to be more committed to a balanced repertoire when ahead in the count, using his sinker, slider, curve, and change quite liberally. His best whiff rate was on the slider, at almost 19% and he generated a 37% whiff per swing rate. But in 2013, he increased his slider usage overall, and it was predominantly when ahead in the count, where he used it almost half the time when ahead or having two strikes on opposing batters.
The result was a jump in whiff rates on the slider to over 25% and his whiff per swing rate grew to nearly 48%. He all but abandoned his curve, and he really only used his change against right handed batters to try and keep them honest. With Holland, in 2013, you pretty much could guess what was coming — sinker, sinker, sinker until you were behind in the count, and then you’d get a healthy dose of his slider.
But despite limiting his repertoire, Holland survived on having a pretty clear plan — staying out of the zone when the count allowed him to, and generating weak contact:
| O-Swing% | O-Contact% | SwStr% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 27.8% | 64.8% | 7.9% |
| 2012 | 26.4% | 65.0% | 8.1% |
| 2013 | 31.6% | 58.8% | 9.9% |
More visually displayed, here’s an overlay of how Holland approached left handed batters and right handed batters from 2012 versus 2013 (from BrooksBaseball.net):
Pretty much the same recipe. Stay out of the middle of the zone, go low and away on left handed batters, go down and in on right handed batters. And this more simple approach worked. Better yet, for fantasy owners, there’s no reason to question why it can’t continue to work going forward.
If you’re in a re-draft league, I’d target Holland. He’s not among the sexier names that will come off the board in earlier rounds, but he can provide similar, if not better, results. He certainly won’t be going as late as he did last year, where his ADP sat in the 200’s, but he should still fly under the radar on draft day, allowing you to sneak a very solid #2 for the price of a back-end starter.
Michael was born in Massachusetts and grew up in the Seattle area but had nothing to do with the Heathcliff Slocumb trade although Boston fans are welcome to thank him. You can find him on twitter at @michaelcbarr.
What is the real difference between Holland and Lance Lynn? Here are their 2013 numbers:
Player A: 3.28 FIP, 8.84 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, .62 HR/9, 7.4% HR/FB
Player B: 3.44 FIP, 7.99 K/9, 2.70 BB/9, .85 HR/9, 8.8% HR/FB
Player A is Lance Lynn. B is Holland. Lynn has a better K rate, but more walks, and fewer home runs allowed, but none is dramatically different.
The big difference is that Lynn had a .314 BABIP and Holland had a .307. I’m not sure if either is likely to regress, but Lynn’s seems more likely to me, especially since they had nearly identical line drive rates (both 22%).
Lynn is mediocre (at best) against lefties, but great against righties. Holland was pretty good against both lefties and righties this year, but has historically been as bad against righties as Lynn is against lefties but without being as good against same-handed batters.
I don’t understand why Holland is revered (not just by Fangraphs readers and writers) and yet Lynn is potentially going to lose his rotation spot. Is it all just the AL/NL difference?
By FIP, Lynn was 22nd among qualified starters and Holland was 33rd. By xFIP, Lynn was 36th and Holland was 38th.
I’d rather have Lynn in fantasy (and real life), but Lynn may not even start next year. I don’t get it.
The biggest different is their BABIPs were .007 apart? That’s not a big difference.
For me holland has better stuff and also is trending in a more consistently manner thus “proving” he is learning to pitch, like the article said.
Holland is a power lefty who has decided to not just depend on his power. As noted, he is learning how to pitch, but it’s more than that. The kid has already proven that even while in the process of learning to pitch, he can completely dominate. In five seasons, he has seven complete game shutouts. (four in one season) In his single start in a World Series (2011) he shutout the Cardinals for 8 1/3 innings. So not only was he good and getting better. He has also already proved he can be a big game pitcher.
The Rangers have had some pretty good starting pitcher the last few years. (Lewis, CJ Wilson, Cliff Lee, Matt Harrison, Ogando, Perez, Yu Darvish, and others) Of those, only Darvish has better *stuff*. You could argue Lee also, but IMO his stuff isn’t near as good as Holland’s. Lee’s strength was his incredible control.