Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered 3B Rankings Follow Up

Long weekends are great for quick family trips, maybe some skiing, perhaps just a little extra rest, or the rare Sunday night out. But they are not great for keeping up the pace of rankings articles! Nothing on Monday! Short week! The deadline is coming! But never fear, we are still on track, and today I follow up my third base rankings for 4×4 with a look at all the other Ottoneu formats.

Third is a relatively shallow position – a number of players are also middle infield eligible and are covered there; at least a couple of names you might want to see here (Munetaka Murakami, for example) are not-yet 3B-eligible and will be ranked with the first base/utility guys later this week. There is, however, enough to cover and some interesting discussions to have. As always, I will leave the FanGraphs Points rankings table for the end, so feel free to scroll down there if that is all you are looking for.

FanGraphs and SABR Points

My regular reminders (details in the middle infield post): the biggest changes between 4×4 and FanGraphs points are time missed (which hurts more in 4×4), stolen bases (which matter in points), and batting average (which has a real impact in points, even if we think of these points leagues as OBP leagues). Also, SABR and FanGraphs Points use the same offensive scoring, so the this section is the same for both of them, but keep in mind that SABR leagues use different scoring for pitching which, in my experience, makes bats a bit more valuable overall, relative to FanGraphs Points.

• I was surprised how few players raised volume concerns (or benefits) for me at this spot. As you look through the top of the list (José Ramírez, Junior Caminero, Manny Machado, Austin Riley, Alex Bregman, Matt Chapman, Eugenio Suárez, Isaac Paredes, Max Muncy, Royce Lewis), how many names do you see that give you volume concerns? Could Paredes lose time due to the crowded infield in Houston? We probably need to assume missed time for Lewis. Muncy will get rest. But in general, third seems to be a spot where guys just suit up and play. Lower down the list, Miguel Andujar, Otto Kemp and Will Wagner are players who maybe suffer a volume penalty in 4×4 and are a little more useful here. But of those three, only Andujar is particularly interesting.
• Steals have an impact right at the top. I noted in my 4×4 rankings that projections actually prefer Caminero in that format – that isn’t true here. Ramírez is a near lock for 30 SB and that does enough to push him into more of a clear-cut #1. Another name to watch here – Royce Lewis stole 12 bases last year, all in the second half, with nine in September. If that is something he is adding to his game, that could push him up the list.
• Alec Bohm, Austin Riley, and Miguel Andujar all benefit from the batting average benefit. Bohm, interestingly, lands in a lower tier in my rankings, but a higher ordinal rank – I think the tier has more to do with structural differences between the formats and the comparative value curves than it does with Bohm. I actually like him in both formats, but a bit more here.
• Among players projected to be at least replacement level, and looking purely at THE BAT X projections (no adjustments made by me, simply converting projected production into dollars), the biggest movers coming to FanGraphs Points from 4×4 are:
  • Mark Vientos (-$5), Eugenio Suárez (-$4), Royce Lewis (-$4), Matt Chapman (-$3), Josh Jung (-$1), José Ramírez (+$7), Sal Stewart (+$5), Yoán Moncada (+$4), Manny Machado (+$4), Isaac Paredes (+$2)

Head-to-Head

The overview for head-to-head is that volume matters more than in season-long leagues. You have more games to fill (seven days a week all season rather than 162 games total) and that means platoon guys require more roster balance, injured players are harder to replace, and you generally need more depth.

• Players who platoon (due to platoon splits, home park effects, or anything else) or expected to miss time who are less useful in head-to-head are limited. As discussed in the comparison of 4×4 and points leagues, third basemen mostly seem to play pretty regularly. But Andujar, Kemp and Wagner are definitely less productive in head-to-head. And if you are going to count on Royce Lewis or another player with a long injury history, make sure you have a good backup plan.
• Players who are right around replacement level but have more value in head-to-head because they provide necessary depth mostly include players whose roles are unclear. Unlike at middle infield, where someone like JP Crawford is locked into a role and can be slotted into your lineup just to fill out games as needed, there aren’t great options like that at third. Ryan McMahon, Connor Norby, Josh Jung, and Nolan Arenado are all guys who might fit the bill here. None are guys I have much, if any, interest in for a season-long league, but in head-to-head? That’s useful depth from guys who should almost never be your first choice for your lineup, but slot in nicely when no one else is available.
• With so few players being impacted by this at the position, the raw projection gaps I typically put at the end of the sections is not really useful for this one. The projections boost everyone due to lower replacement level and lower everyone due to more players to share the dollars with.

5×5

Steals and RBIs are the biggest driver of statistical difference between 5×5 and the other formats. Steals count in points but at a much lower rate, while RBI don’t count at all outside 5×5. The other big driver of value change is that with so many more ways to accrue value (no power but high average, stolen bases, empty power, etc.) the value curve is, in general, shallower. The top end guys are worth less and more players are worth at least a buck or two. Even way down at replacement level, there are just more options.

• The biggest gainers thanks to stolen bases are (again) Ramírez (whose 35 SB make him the clear top choice at the position for 5×5) and Noelvi Marte, who gains a few dollars in value in large part due to his 16 projected steals. The other best base stealers who qualify at third are multi-position players (Joey Ortiz, Caleb Durbin, Maikel Garcia, etc.) who are ranked at other positions.
• Caminero is the big riser based on RBI – though his gain here isn’t enough bigger than Ramírez to offset the steals. Austin Riley and Manny Machado are both big RBI producers, as well, but the biggest riser thanks to RBI is Eugenio Suárez. His pure-power approach leaves him with a low average, but the HR and RBI totals carry him up a few dollars in value in this format.
• Batting average turns out not to be a major differentiator between formats for third base. The second highest projected average belongs to Ramírez, but Caminero is third highest so the gap from 1-2 doesn’t pivot much on average. The highest projected batting average for the position is Alec Bohm, but Bohm’s overall profile is a better fit for points or even 4×4 (he does a lot of things well, but doesn’t exactly pile up HR, R or RBI, let alone SB) so the high average is really just a floor raiser for him.
• Among players projected to be at least replacement level in both formats, and looking purely at THE BAT X projections (no adjustments made by me, simply converting projected production into dollars), the biggest movers coming to 5×5 from FanGraphs Points are:
  • Sal Stewart (-$12), Max Muncy (-$12), Austin Riley (-$9), Alex Bregman (-$8), Isaac Paredes (-$8), Matt Shaw (+$7), Royce Lewis (+$7), Noelvi Marte (+$7), Mark Vientos (+$4), Eugenio Suárez (+$3)

Chad Young’s Tiered 3B Rankings for FanGraphs Points