Chad Young’s Ottoneu Tiered 1B/Util Rankings Follow Up

We are winding down towards the end of this series and we have landed on (in my opinion) one of the least interesting of these “follow up” articles. The cross-format comparisons are most interesting at positions where variations in player values are the greatest. Shortstop or outfield, for example, are full of guys who run, guys who mash, guys who do a bit of both. There are players at a lot of positions who stay on the field thanks to their defense, creating an opportunity for volume-based value that their bat doesn’t carry alone. But at first base and util? Not so much.

In 4×4 leagues, you want guys who hit a lot of home runs and get on base at a high rate. In points leagues, you want those things, plus some steals and a nice high average. In 5×5, those steals and that average matter even more. But first basemen are, in general, not providing much value with their legs, and you are looking for the big slugger types at this spot in all the formats. As a result, the values don’t vary as much and there isn’t as much to talk about. As always, I will leave the FanGraphs Points rankings table for the end, so feel free to scroll down there if that is all you are looking for.

FanGraphs and SABR Points

My regular reminders (details in the middle infield post): the biggest changes between 4×4 and FanGraphs points are time missed (which hurts more in 4×4), stolen bases (which matter in points), and batting average (which has a real impact in points, even if we think of these points leagues as OBP leagues). Also, SABR and FanGraphs Points use the same offensive scoring, so the this section is the same for both of them, but keep in mind that SABR leagues use different scoring for pitching which, in my experience, makes bats a bit more valuable overall, relative to FanGraphs Points.

• The two biggest “volume” plays in 4×4 are Spencer Torkelson and Christian Walker. They are 8th and 11th, respectively, in projected plate appearances if you look at THE BAT X, but they are 22nd and 25th in projected wOBA. Not surprisingly, their FanGraphs Points projections rank 20th and 21st while in 4×4 they rank 14th and 15th. I am generally higher on Tork and lower on Walker than those raw projections, but Torkelson is definitely more interesting in 4×4 where his volume provides some floor. Walker, to be honest, I don’t want to buy the volume – that team is too crowded to assume that he’ll get that kind of volume if he isn’t hitting.
• The first basemen who steal bases are generally not fantasy first basemen. The only four first basemen projected for double-digit steals by THE BAT X are Josh Naylor, Cody Bellinger, Romy Gonzalez, and Spencer Steer. Naylor is the only one who doesn’t qualify at another spot. This doesn’t really move the needle much for him, though, in large part because THE BAT X is just not that high on him, period, projecting a .312 wOBA (T-Mobile Park isn’t helping his cause, I am sure). Stolen bases help, but 13 SB isn’t going to overcome that soft a projection in this format.
• Average is a similar story – the only three “true” first basemen (who don’t qualify elsewhere) with projected average over .260 are Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Freddie Freeman, and Yandy Díaz. Vlad is my number two first basemen (well, number one behind Shohei Ohtani, who is ranked here as a utility bat) in both points formats and 4×4. Freeman and Díaz each get a boost – Freeman from 8th to 6th, Díaz from 10th to 9th – when they move to points leagues where their average carries more weight.
• Among players projected to be at least replacement level, and looking purely at THE BAT X projections (no adjustments made by me, simply converting projected production into dollars), the biggest movers coming to FanGraphs Points from 4×4 are:
  • Spencer Torkelson (-$7), Christian Walker (-$7), Jake Burger (-$6), Matt Olson (-$4), Josh Naylor (-$3), Shohei Ohtani (+$13), Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., (+$8), Bryce Harper (+$4), Kazuma Okamoto (+$3), and Freddie Freeman (+$2)

Head-to-Head

The overview for head-to-head is that volume matters more than in season-long leagues. You have more games to fill (seven days a week all season rather than 162 games total) and that means platoon guys require more roster balance, injured players are harder to replace, and you generally need more depth. None of this, however, is super meaningful at first base. This isn’t a position teams often platoon (Jonathan Aranda stands out as a player who might lose time to a platoon, simply cause the Rays are the Rays). And there aren’t really any below replacement level bats that get enough playing time at first base to be useful purely from a volume perspective. But the floor is raised for anyone who you expect to have regular playing time – perhaps Jake Burger and Spencer Torkelson stand out.

5×5

Steals and RBIs are the biggest driver of statistical difference between 5×5 and the other formats. Steals count in points but at a much lower rate, while RBI don’t count at all outside 5×5. The other big driver of value change is that with so many more ways to accrue value (no power but high average, stolen bases, empty power, etc.) the value curve is, in general, shallower. The top end guys are worth less and more players are worth at least a buck or two. Even way down at replacement level, there are just more options.

• Josh Naylor is the lone big-gainer thanks to steals. He jumps back up to a similar tier in 5×5 that he was in for 4×4. The question I have is: will he really maintain those SB gains? All the projection systems see 13-18 SB; his career high before last year’s outburst was 10. I don’t think 13-18 is too out there, but it’s not a lock, either.
• RBI really help Pete Alonso, who is projected to be a big run producer for the Orioles. His 103 RBI projection is the only one over 100 at the position. That’s enough to take a guy who was already top-5 and move him into the top-3 by projections. I
• Average doesn’t help much, as our big average projections are either already at the top of the rankings (Vlad) or lack the power projections you need for a big boost in 5×5 at this position (Freeman, Díaz).
• My usual list of players who moved the most from FanGraphs Points to 5×5, by raw projection values, is going to be missing. First base is unique because the change in how players are valued takes it from being a spot where a number of players are just flat out studs to a position where no one contributes across the board. The top end of the position – Ohtani as a util, Guerrero, Kurtz, Harper, etc. – all take a BIG hit in their projected values. I think this is in part an unfair correction and something that might need adjustment in my value model. But it is also just reality that these top bats are simply not as valuable and first basemen are among the least likely players to make up for that by having value in all five categories. Josh Naylor, Christian Walker, and Jake Burger are the three biggest gainers, and all gain less than $4.

Chad Young’s Tiered 1B/Util Rankings for FanGraphs Points