Chad Young’s Ottoneu Chat – January 31, 2023

Chad Young: Hi all – going to get this started in just a moment. This chat, for those who missed my update last week, is part of our expanded Ottoneu coverage. I don’t know yet how regular they will be, but there has been demand for chats, so we’ll keep doing them semi-regularly.

Chad Young: Happy to answer any Ottoneu questions, but I also cover keeper leagues in general on the Keep or Kut podcast, so I am open to any questions. Just know that whatever you are doing in your other keeper leagues, Ottoneu is better!

Chad Young: For any questions, when possible let me know the basics of league format. For Ottoneu, that just means scoring type, but any info you give me can help me give you a better answer.

Chad Young: Also, I am new to this chat thing, so if I mess things up…uh…sorry. I’ll do my best. Let’s go!

Jeff: Which do you like less: $10 Nimmo, $8 Renfroe, $9 Happ, $3 Kwan?

Chad Young: I have Nimmo a good deal above the rest of those guys and given the price, I like Kwan a good deal more than the other two. Renfroe vs. Happ is pretty close to a tossup for me, so I’ll take the extra dollar saved and say Happ is my least favorite. But I like them all and wouldn’t be looking to cut any of them.

Large Farva: Currently have Betts, Hoerner (when he gets 2b eligiblity) for 2b. Do I keep or cut $9 Lux? Same with $3 Aranda? Hate 2b depth options in the draft

Chad Young: I could go either way on that Lux. I like Aranda and would prefer to keep him at $3. The challenge here, if you are worried about depth, is that Aranda is far less certain to play and perform. If you are really worried and expect no options at 2B in the auction, I could keep them both. Otherwise, I would keep Aranda and try to find a boring but safe and cheap option at auction (Wong, Rojas, Segura, etc.)

Rayan: Which pitchers do you look at and think, “Man, if that guy gets to 160 innings he’s going to get some Cy Young votes” ?

Chad Young: This is a fun one. Leaving aside the obvious CY candidates, some guys I think could surprise – Tyler Glasnow is super talented if he can stay on the hill. Blake Snell won’t get to 160 innings unless he can be more efficient but if he brings down the walks, he could be elite. People keep treating Kershaw in trade talks like he is washed, but he was 6th in MLB in FIP among SP with 80+ IP in 2022.

Bertier’s Mama: How many quality replacement options need to be available before you feel confident dropping someone?

Chad Young: In general, I don’t look too much at the market to make my decisions. If a guy is a keep, he is a keep and if he is not, those resources are better spent elsewhere. That said, if there is literally nothing, I might reach a bit.

Chad Young: As an example, I just traded for an $18 Ty France in a league with basically no 3B FA. From what I can tell, the options will be Anthony Rendon, Josh Rojas, Justin Turner, and Josh Donaldson. And I could be wrong about Rendon getting cut. France was borderline for me but the trade made sense and the situation is dire. But…I had that Justin Turner at $17 and had decided to cut him regardless of this trade.

Rico: What am I missing on Isaac Paredes? Lack of consistent AB’s, bad batted ball profiles, some pop and good BB rate. Seems a tier or two too high.

Chad Young: I think Paredes does need to come down a tier, given playing time concerns, but “some pop and  good BB rate” goes a long way. That’s a profile I love and you can see it in the projections, too. Using Depth Charts projections, I get a $14 value for him (that’s just pure projection value, none of my input). That’s partially because Steamer is particularly high on him, but there is real reason to believe, particularly in this format.

Mike M: Is it worth speculating on SB upside with the new rules in place this year? Understanding that guys still need to hit, but it would seem like the Jon Bertis of the world could be more valuable if they were already hitting enough for 4 p/g (Fangraphs points)

Chad Young: Berti put up 4.18 P/G last year stealing 41 bases and being caught 5 times. I don’t know how much upside there is on that. If he steals 10 more and still gets caught just 5 times, that adds 19 points to his season and raises him to something like 4.35 P/G. Which is still bad. My guess is that even for the best base stealers, the new rules don’t add much more than 0.2 P/G. That is a sizable increase, but it’s not enough to make many of the 5×5 SB darlings valuable in FGPTs.

Chad Young: On the new rules, in general – I am assuming little to no change in player values for FGPTs. The lack of clarity on how the new rules will play out, plus the relative lack of value of SB makes it hard for me to assume much overall impact on values.

Large Farva: $13 Strider
$10 McClanahan
$17 Rodon
$15 Framber
$14 Webb
$8 Glasnow
$6 Ashby
$6 Wesneski
$11 Cobb
How many more SPs do I need to cover all the injury risk?

Chad Young: I tend to like to have nine SP, adding a 10th if I am worried about risk. I also go into auctions with a couple “unclaimed” spots and might opportunistically grab an extra SP if it makes sense. For you I would for sure get to 10. Ashby and Wesneski are not locks for the rotation (in fact, I would bet neither are there to start the year), plus you have some injury risk. But that is a fun rotation.

Liam: Is there any reason I should keep a $29 hoskins? I’ve got an $8 Lowe but for some reason I can’t pull the trigger to cut

Chad Young: I like Hoskins a lot but $29 is really pushing the upper limits on what he is worth. You could use him and Lowe at 1B and util, so you have room for both, but I would be inclined to cut, see what he’s going for at auction and either get him back in the low-to-mid 20s or pivot to someone else.

JB: If I have 8$ Alejandro Kirk and 14$ Willson Contreras is it worth it to hold both, even as a potential trade chip/insurance or is the money better used elsewhere?

Chad Young: I would keep both. You will need two C to fill out 162 games anyway, and both of those guys are good values. You can then use them both heavily early in the year and then trade one or, if needed slot one in at util at times.

Cedric_Walter: Is Chris Sale worth the risk @ $23? Don’t have an ace in my rotation and the FA pool looks light.

Chad Young: I wish people asked easier questions like, “would you keep this $73 Sale?” or “should I cut a $3 Sale?” $23? Man, that is tough. I think if you are worried about SP, I would keep him. The upside is high and if he does get hurt again, you can cut him and use the newfound cap room to pick up whatever young SP has come out of nowhere to surprise us.

$70Trout: new to Ottoneu this season and loving it already – took over an abandoned last place team, have devoured as much content to learn, went through arbitration with my team, did my cuts, made some wild trades… now heading into my first draft and full season, what’s one thing you’d want to make sure a Roto player understands about Ottoneu as a newcomer?

Chad Young: Welcome! Always excited to hear that we have new people joining!

Chad Young: There are a lot of thing they should understand, but reading the content and checking out the FAQ and the league settings page are all good starts. As for one thing…remember that balance matters a lot less. In roto, if you hit 100 more HR than the second place team in HR, and as a result have very few R or SB and a low average, all those HR won’t help. In a points league, every HR counts the same, whether you have 100 more than the next team or 1 more. In the auction, go get production and value regardless of what shape it comes in.

Liam: also- so glad to see expanded ottoneu coverage. love keep or kut and excited to get some more articles

Chad Young: Thanks, Liam. Just throwing this in here to give myself a chance to catch my breath and bask in the glow of your kind words

Adam K: How do you generally engage with league-mates who aren’t very active?

Chad Young: I try to engage with them on their own terms, if that makes sense. If they aren’t engaged because they have limited time, I try to just send them offers that are fair from the start or even maybe a little in their favor but still work for me. They won’t go back and forth in negotiations so make it easy. I also try to engage with them when they are around. They are making cuts? Or updated their trade block? Act fast to engage while they are paying attention.

double strategy ??: In general:  FGPTs.  Do you prefer Aces and spaces, or a roster of $20 players plays better in OttoNeu.  Do you prefer keeping close calls, or throwing back all but clear excess values?  Any notable differences if H2H or YTD?  Thank you

Chad Young: I tend to prefer to play in the middle, but I want some stud bats. I care less about having a legit top tier ace – I prefer all my SP to be at a meaningful discount because of the risk, even if that means I am never getting the Cole’s or Scherzer’s of the world.

Chad Young: H2H vs. Season-long, in Ottoneu the big thing is that for pitchers the value shifts from P/IP to P/appearance, more or less, in H2H. H2H leagues you have limited starts per week but if your SP all go 9 innings, you can use all those innings and pile up points. SP who go deep and RP who throw a lot of innings are more valuable. For RP that doesn’t have to be 2-3 inning outings, though. Just high volume overall. Going three times in a week for one inning each is better than going once a week for three innings because you have more chances for saves/holds.

p: 4×4 league. Not competing next year. Keep or cut: $11 Kelenic, $9 Kiriloff

Chad Young: Cut’em both. I like them both, but way too much risk for me at those prices.

Bertier: How many OF options do you like to carry? And can you do an updated roster construction series?

Chad Young: Roster construction would be a great topic for Lucas, Jake and me to cover. We’ll put it on our list. As for OF, I like to have at least 7. That’s enough if they are all everyday players, especially if you have a 2B/OF or 3B/OF at another spot who can moonlight for you. Most of the time, though, I have some platoon guys or guys I expect to miss time, and carry around 9.

Matt: Can you provide some more context to your comment on Sal Frelick (“A prospect with this little power is going to need to be ready to debut before I consider rostering them. And even then, probably not.”)? In 2022, his AA PPG was 6.8, and 7.8 in AAA (~50G for each). Granted small sample and MiLB -> MLB translations, would you really expect it to drop *that* much? Seems like he is a great candidate to forge a slightly different path to points, a la Yandy Diaz

Chad Young: I am just generally skeptical of guys who I don’t think have enough power. If MLB pitchers can get him to swing and miss more (likely) and challenge him more since he can’t really punish them (likely) his path to success narrows dramatically. Some guys do it – Yandy you mentioned. Steven Kwan. But there’s also guys like Nick Madrigal, JP Crawford, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Amed Rosario, etc. who just never do enough. I’d rather miss out on him becoming a solid $10 OF and spend that roster spot and those dollars on someone who will contribute now or who has much higher upside for the format.

JR: Would you prefer $6 Kyle Wright or $8 Drew Rasmussen? H2H Fangraphs points.

Chad Young: Wright. Especially in H2H where (per my reply above to “double strategy”) those extra IP per GS are really useful.

Bill: No question just thanks for doing this chat and increasing the Ottoneu content.  Really looking forward to the season.  Cheers

Chad Young: Thanks Bill!

Framberman: How many Ottoneu leagues are you in this year?

Chad Young: 7 – three 4×4 (league 1, league 1199, and league 1372), one season long FGPTs (32), one season long SABR Pts (670), one H2H FGPTs (13), and one 5×5 (1443). The 5×5 is my newest – it’s a Podcasters League put together by Derek Van Riper of The Athletic. I am in that, as are Paul and Justin representing Sleeper and the Bust, plus a handful of other great podcasters. Should be really fun.

Adam K: How do you approach keep / cut decisions in a 2nd year league given the lack of expected inflation or even potential deflation?

Chad Young: Not that differently from leagues that have been around longer, I just assume a lower inflation rate when making cuts. Honestly, you are probably best off assuming 0% and rolling with that.

Adam K: Hold 2 versions of $5 Roansy across FGPts leagues where I have plenty of pitching – would you keep or cut?

Chad Young: If you have plenty of pitching, I would keep. There is a lot of volatility there and a wide range of outcomes, but there are worse players to gamble on.

kcc26: stuck on an $8 Drury.  I don’t think he’s an $8 player, but I’m light on MI options heading into auction and like the 1b/2b/3b coverage he provides.  what do you think?

Chad Young: I am generally not a Drury believer. Have him in my $3-$6 tier at 2B but right near the bottom of the tier. I would cut him. He provides coverage but very likely only as a platoon bat, which makes him harder to use as a bench option.

Not Jake Cronenworth: You wrote about a CY tier for RP, is there a discount that makes sense for 1B in 4×4 leagues as well?

Chad Young: I am always looking for values, but RP is really the only spot where I just never pay market price no matter what. In 4×5, I will gladly pay full price for a 1B if that is what my team needs.

Not Jake Cronenworth: Do you participate in leagues with arbitration vote off, rather than allocation?  Do you approach cuts differently in those leagues?

Chad Young: I don’t anymore, but I have. Little history lesson: vote-off used to be the ONLY option; allocations came later. But no, I don’t approach cuts differently. I still want to keep my best values and cut the rest.

prospect gold: Curious how many roster spots you devote to prospects–hitting and pitching. thx!

Chad Young: This varies, but it ranges from 0 to maybe 5. If I am entering the Ottoneu Prestige League, I won’t roster any unless I think they are up very early. If I am contending, I might roster 1-3 that I think can help or can be traded. If I am not contending, I might go up to 5. But I don’t usually devote rosters spots specifically to prospects. I like to enter the auction with 2-4 spots that I don’t need something specific (for example, having 10 free spots and knowing I need 2 OF, 3 SP, 1 MI, a CI, but have three spots free) and those might turn into prospects or other guys who come in cheaper than expected.

Sam: Keep Goldy for $35 or Will Smith for $25?

Chad Young: Yes and probably. I think I am overpaying the top of the C market right now and need to come down in my prices, but even if I do, after inflation, I like that Smith.

JR: Is $38 Bregman a keeper? The league is a 9-year H2H Fangraphs points league, so there is some inflation. I would feel a lot better about keeping him around $30.

Chad Young: I think he is but not obviously so, if that makes sense. I wouldn’t blame you for cutting him but based on what I am seeing at 3B, I would be happy to have him.

Oddball Herrera: I am flush with keepers. Who am I going to feel dumber about cutting loose – Elly or Volpe?

Chad Young: Elly. I like Volpe, too, but Elly appears to be special and won’t have to fight for time in an org that will move on quickly if he isn’t producing.

Nate: I saw a reference to some mock drafts that are being done.  Can you send that link?

Chad Young: here is a google sheet with the results from those mocks plus a link to each mock. Big thanks to SABRMagician, a long-time Ottoneu manager who has taken on running these mocks.

Chip: Do you pay more than $20 for relievers? I feel like you can collect lots of holds guys with good ratios (some of whom end up closers eventually) and use the money more wisely

Chad Young: Agreed. I do not pay more than $20 for RP. I almost never pay more than $10 and pretty rarely go over $5. My bullpens are never THAT good but they are usually good enough.

Moerder: How concerned are you with positional/roster fit at this time of year? I find myself stressing about holes in the roster (e.g. no SS’s, too hitter/pitcher heavy, no bench, etc), but then remember there’s an often fertile trading period between the auction draft and Opening Day to iron that stuff out. Do you ever go agnostic with positions, grab any value wherever you can, and then fix it post auction?

Chad Young: I prefer to behave that way and it is my default. Especially pre-auction, I just want to set myself up well and I am content to go into the auction with gaps if need be.

p: Looking to join a new FGPTs league this year. Any hot tips? (Undervalued players, mix of Hitting to Pitching, mind games?!)

Chad Young: Mind games are key. Make sure to tell all your leaguemates that you are aiming to win SB but are punting saves. Convince them you don’t understand the format at all. They’ll never see you coming.

Chad Young: One real tip: Don’t worry about hitting vs. pitching mix. Worry about maximizing your lineup vs. your bench (having 15 great hitters doesn’t help since you can only play 12 each day), but if you have an elite offense and middling pitching, that can still be enough.

Framberman: Loved your entire Ottoneu position ranking series but this RP ranking is truly unique. I find various RP ranking calculator swing and miss on accurately projecting $ amounts on relievers. Your Chad tier addresses this by bumping the calculated tier a few $’s. At what point during an auction would you bail altogether on RP’s and rely on the FA market? Once all $1 and higher RP’s are gone? Before that? After that?

Chad Young: I generally bail on RP at the start lol.

Chad Young: I often nominate RP early just to see if someone sneaks through, but I am generally just waiting for either a $10 guy to go for $5 or for everyone to let me have a guy I like for $1.

Jeff: Scale of 1-10, how badly do I need to address RP if I’m keeping Graterol, Clase, J Adam, Hudson

Chad Young: If those guys are all good values and you are keeping them all, you don’t need to do much more IMO. Get some cheap depth with upside.

Nick M: Hi Chad, playing Ottoneu points for my 2nd year and I need to fill 4 outfield spots for $90, what’s a good average P/G to aim for if I want safe players?

Chad Young: This is a hard one because the environment matters. A good P/G in 2022 would not have been good at all in 2021 and would have been really bad in 2019. What is 2023 going to be? No idea. I would look at my OF rankings and start to build some options for yourself based on who is available in FA. With $90, I could see going $40-$20-$20-$10 for four spots, or $40-$40-$5-$5 or anything in between. Make a couple different plans and see how the auction flows.

Matt: B Lowe at $15. Right in line with Ottoneu average salary, and MNI is pretty thin. I’m just so scared of that back. But I kinda need to keep that, right?

Chad Young: I would keep him. Backs are not fun, but Lowe can really hit and the upside is big.

Larry Hutz: More of a general question – how do you determine prospect prices for keep/cut/trade decisions? I love using prospects in trades, so I keep them around often for that, and of course, you sometimes hit on the Soto or JRod lottery ticket.

But year to year, I often come to today with a struggle: Do I keep Jordan Westburg for $5? Or Chaurio for $6? etc

Do you have a prospect tier system that helps with these decisions?

Chad Young: I include prospects in my rankings, but if you look there you will see I have very few up above $5. In general, I want to stick under $3 and want guys set to debut soon. That said, that typically means I am not rostering the best prospects like Chourio, but I am okay with that.

Matt: How do you feel about a catching tandem of Murphy/d’Arnaud for a combined $9 ($5, and $4)?

Chad Young: I don’t hate it. I have been cutting my TdA’s because I expect the role will be smaller, but having the pair works well and you should get what you need from it.

TStats: If people are treating kershaw like he is washed in trade talks, you should be nabbing lol

Chad Young: I have actually been trying to sell him, not because I am low on him but because I have plenty of pitching in a couple of places and he was a good trade option. Surprised people were not more engaged on him, so ended up keeping him where he couldn’t be moved.

can o corn: OF seems to be very difficult to fill–is that an illusion? what is your shallowest position and any tips to field 5 decent OF?

Chad Young: OF is shallower than people think, for sure, but it’s no C or MI. Key to the OF is to find the right platoon bats. Joc Pederson, Josh Naylor, etc., do more for you than you think. Also, don’t hesitate to play a guy like McNeil in the OF. It sucks playing you MI at other spots, but sometimes you best fifth OF is actually starting your backup MI and moving McNeil or someone to the OF.

Mike: Is Anderson (CHW) worth keeping @ $25?

Chad Young: Nope

Chad Young: Wow we are over an hour here, but still a lot of questions. Going to keep rolling

First TIme, Long Time: What do you do with mid-tier players ($10-$20) guys within ~10% of their value? I have had an itchy cut finger in the past hoping to get similar production cheaper.

Chad Young: Priced 10% below their value, you keep for sure. 10% over, that depends on inflation and whether you are counting inflation when you say “10% over.” If I am keeping a guy who I think is $15 inflated at $17 (roughly 10% more than that) it is only because I think he has big upside and a safe enough floor to justify taking the risk.

KDL212: Keep a $31 Stanton/$10 Soler in FG points? Each has upside, but not much surplus upside, and I feel like I over-keep every year.

Chad Young: Soler cut. Stanton is borderline but I would probably cut. He feels like a guy who should be $24ish with 20% inflation taking him to $28-$29. And he is going under that $24 in the mocks, so I also don’t think he gets pushed to $30 in auctions.

Beek: SABR points: keep or cut $22 Chapman

Chad Young: Aroldis? cut. Matt? cut. Some other Chapman I can’t think of? Probably cut.

JHB: Would you prefer $7 Jorge Polanco or $10 Gavin Lux in a backup/2B utility role?

Chad Young: Polanco and it isn’t close for me.

hayden: Keep $40 Scherzer when I already have $120 tied up in Judge and Ohtani? Rest of rotation is $11 Lynn, $9 Gonsolin, $5 Ray, $5 Stripling, $3 Keller, $3 Mikolas…

Chad Young: I am lower than most on Scherzer. He is going high 30’s in the mocks which makes $40 a keep, but he has had end of season injury issues lately and I worry about him breaking down given all the miles on that arm. That rotation needs some help though. If there is pitching at auction, I would cut Scherzer and try to get two guys from the $20ish range instead. If pitching is scarce, I guess keep him.

Annonymous: Is Wander Franco’s high Ottoneu valuation tied to the keeper / dynasty aspect of his youth? ATC and The Bat agree he’s a fringey low-end starting SS for 2023.

Chad Young: My values based on Depth Charts have him at $23 and BAT X at $21. Surplus Calculator has him at $21 and that is purely projection based, as well.

Chad Young: I think that $20-$25 range I have him in is just kinda what he is. If you want to buy into a big power breakout, he could go even higher (I am not buying that though).

Dug: In a Fangraphs Points league, how many catchers should you roster?

Chad Young: Season-long leagues: 2, maybe 3 if you have great values you just can’t pass up. H2H: 1, maybe 2.

Michael: I always have a problem with relievers and keepers. I tend to take the same strategy of not spending much on it and then I’ve got guys like Jason Adams at $5 and not sure what to do.

Chad Young: I just cut all my relievers. At least most of them. $5 is fine for Adam but not so special that you can’t replace him IMO and I would rather have the flex to get a $1 RP and reallocate those $4 to something I care more about.

great big thanks: more ottoneu stuff is always better. thanks very much.

Chad Young: Agreed. Ottoneu is the best.

Maximus: Where are you on the much-ballyhooed Muncy rebound this year? How barren would 2B have to be looking for you to keep a $30 Muncy (FGPTs, 5th-yr league)?

Chad Young: I expect a rebound. I don’t expect $30 of rebound. I would cut, and it almost doesn’t matter how barren 2B is. Unless you think he is like the only one being cut and even then…I might cut.

Alex: How much do you value multi-position players? Jake Cronenworth isn’t a world beater but he qualifies in three places and might get OF if they move him around a lot. Is he worth $13 as a swiss army knife for the roster?

Chad Young: I hate this question. I hate it because I was a big Cronenworth fan two years ago and kept him all over last year and here I am with a bunch of $11-$13 Cronenworths and I am still unsure what to do. I’ll say this – I put him in my $7-$10 tier but I think that values him more highly than his projections justify. I think he can beat his projection and I like his ability to play all over. But at $13, my decision on him is based on the rest of my roster. If I am strong at MI, I’ll let him go. If not, I like having his floor to keep me safe.

Beek: One more for me (points league): $32 Springer keep or cut

Chad Young: keep, but just barely

Secret Agent: Do you find inflation is even spread out, or does it impact pricey bats more? Seems to be my experience.

Chad Young: Lots of varying opinions on this and it’s really hard to measure because how you measure inflation depends on what you set your values to from the start. If your values are too steep (too high at the top and dropping too fast) inflation will look lower at the top, even if it is not.

Chad Young: My sense is that there is more scarcity at the top (there are a dozen $5 OF but only one Judge) so inflation tends to feel higher at the top because people will bid up those studs.

Chucky: Keep forever, no contracts 6×6 OBP Gunnar and Carrol or JTR and Swanson?

Chad Young: Gunnar and Carroll. I don’t want to keep an old C forever.

Chip: You going to bid on Yoshida? Feels like the kind of guy who will get bid up ridiculously.

Chad Young: I was out on Seiya last year for that reason and I suspect I will be out on Yoshida. I’ll let others take the risk. I have seen multiple Suzuki’s cut today in my leagues and I suspect I am not alone.

Chip: Related to your SP preference, would you say you feel comfortable going into a season with a bunch of surplus ‘#2s’ as opposed to worrying about clear aces? I find myself after an offseason of haggling and restructuring with all the pieces short of an ace (rotation Ray/Gray/Lynn/Ashby/?????). I’ve got cap space but no aces are in the FA pool. Should I stop fretting?

Chad Young: I would absolutely be fine with a rotation of 2s. I also tend to find that if you buy in early on the 2/3 type SP you have a good chance to get a cheap ace the next year.

Vibbot: Given the release of your RP rankings earlier today, and how much lower your tiers are than the “market”, are you ever keeping RPs in non-5×5 leagues? Or are you satisfied with building a bullpen at draft and in-season free agency/waivers?

Chad Young: Almost never. I just traded away a $3 Jhoan Duran in a 4×4 league and I would have kept him, because he was just priced too well to cut. But I am only keeping RP who are extremely inexpensive.

Flexibility: Are you aware of any research on how much mult-position guys add to their value?  For example, let’s take arraez with 1B/2B eligibility.  Clearly his value is premised on his 2 eligibility.  What do you think his 1 eligibility adds? I’ve read in general that it’s a $1 or $2, but I’m wondering if this is just common wisdom, or if anyone has researched the issue?

Chad Young: I haven’t seen any research but my argument has always been that it’s about $1 because it frees up one roster spot. If I thought I needed a back-up 1B and now I don’t, I can use that spot for something else. In season, I can “buy” a roster spot for $1 by cutting a $1 guy and eating the cap penalty. So that is how I look at it.

The Final Boss: I will have ~6 open slots to fill in my draft. Should I nominate all the big name players I don’t want early and let people exhaust their funds, or should I try and squeak a few value guys through early while people may be more patient?

Chad Young: The eternal debate in auctions lol. I would mostly nominate big names. The one exception might be if you have a group of guys in the $5 range at a position and you are happy with any of them, I might nominate one early and see what happens. Sometimes those guys slip through at $1. Sometimes they go for $10. you should be fine either way, just don’t get crazy bidding over your values

JR: How much balance do you try to have on your roster between established players (that may not have too much surplus) and breakout candidates (with a much greater varience in the possible outcomes)? Just looking at surplus based on projections, does not take into account the risk associated with some players.

Chad Young: I try to build around established guys I can rely on and then surround them with upside. I like to know that most of my lineup can be trusted OR that I have high floor backups for the guys I can’t quite trust yet.

Framberman: What are the odds that Tatis slips into the MI for 5 game starts?

Chad Young: Your guess is as good as mine. I am assuming he is an OF only and treating him as such, and if he turns back into a SS, fine.

emptyflight: What is your general advice for a FGP startup? I have two this year and am curious how much emphasis I should put on long term value versus building to compete in 2023.

Chad Young: I always build to compete, but I suspect if you took a deliberate approach to punt year one you could do quite well with it. I might have to try that out sometime. But for me, I am always focused on winning this year.

Henry: Top 100 prospect lists are coming out just in time for the Ottoneu cut deadline. Outside of the prospects expected to get real playing time in 2023, are there any deeper prospects that you see reason to hold onto?

Chad Young: Not really, because I don’t want to pay a prospect for multiple years and use up a roster spot for multiple years. I am focused on guys that can have an impact now or have high trade value now.

JR: I have $5 Murphy, $3 O’Hoppe, and $6 Ruiz. I’m leaning towards keeping Murphy and O’Hoppe, and possibly trying to pick up d’Arneud for a few dollars at auction. Reasonable strategy, or wasting the roster spot on too many catchers. H2H Fangraphs points.

Chad Young: I agree with cutting Ruiz. and I would not carry a third C in H2H. O’hoppe may not be up to start the year, but I still think I would just count on Murphy

Chief: How do you identify when it’s time to go from rebuild to contender when your assessing your teams?

Chad Young: I am always assuming I can contend until it is proven I can’t. So for me, a rebuild starts in May or June when I realize I am done and I flip the switch in October moving into the next season.

TBD benches: In a year where you’re going for the FG Points league title (and OPL), how deep of a bench do you try to have, in terms of quality guys you feel good subbing in vs $1-$2 fliers? Asking for a team where I have no bench OF bats and am weighing keeping a $3 Grichuk or $4 Seth brown

Chad Young: I am finding for OPL I would rather have more studs even if that means more $1-$2 guys. That said, Brown is also 1B/OF which is a nice little OPL boost.

Chip: Would you ever hold a maybe stud (Roderick Arias, for example) who is clearly 3+ years away?

Chad Young: No

double strategy ??: In your OttoNeu leagues, Do you identify yourself as a industry writer?  I love the competition.  I also feel…IDK, ghosted (?)…if not known.  I do not think you “owe it.”

Chad Young: I think my leaguemates all know I write/podcast. I have never hidden it and I write and play under my name so it should be pretty obvious, I think.

Chip: Have you ever gone into a year with only a few spots open and a like $20 available? I find myself with a team I kinda like and didn’t find many cuts.

Chad Young: I have and it’s a fine thing to do, but make sure oyu really believe in that team cause it isn’t improving at the auction.

Chief: Have you ever gone to auction with only $1 per position available?

Chad Young: This, on the other hand, seems crazy. I would be so bored!

Chad Young: I think I would find a way to create cap space even if it was suboptimal just to be able to engage in the auction.

no shift: in points leagues curious how you are handling ground ball heavy types. I would like SP with splits (St louis at home) and it was fewer innings and not elite swing and miss–is it time to pay up for Ks?

Chad Young: I love GB pitchers in FGPT and SABR Pts. High K, high GB is the dream in a format that rewards K and punishes HR. But for me the key is to get at least one. I’ll take high GB with meh K, as long as the K aren’t too low (8 K/9 is fine, 7 might work, 6 isn’t great)

Hebrew: 5×5 standard Otto league – you keeping Scherzer at $43?

Also, why does Justin Mason hate Brandon Nimmo so much

Chad Young: No. Remember in Roto leagues like 5×5 the value curve isn’t as steep as it is in Pts so the top guys are not worth quite as much. And I have no idea. Justin has his own chats so ask him. But I’ll definitely outbid him for Nimmo in our league next week.

Bertier: Do you think Bobby Witt has value used as a 3B instead of an SS?

Chad Young: It’s not optimal, but yes, especially given how shallow 3B is right now.

FoolsRushIN: What is the biggest difference player evaluation wise between Ottoneu and other formats? How useful are non-Ottoneu rankings?

Chad Young: Standard rankings are going to be for 5×5 and they are going to way overvalue SB and Saves while way undervaluing OBP and HR suppression. They can be useful, but be aware that anyone who steals bases will get pushed way up, while low BB guys get pushed down.

WhooHa: Cut or keep in Ottoneu 4×4? $5 Fairbanks, $3 E Swanson, $3 Karinchak

Chad Young: Ask me about RP, I am going to suggest cutting them, almost always. That said, if you don’t subscribe to my cheap pen philosophy, those three are all decent options to keep.

Gryzzl: Should I keep a $24 Urias in 4×4?

Chad Young: I wouldn’t. I am higher on him than the projections, but I would move on at $24.

Chucky: If you have a set and forget kind of player, i.e. Freddie Freeman type, do you roster a back up or just wait for a WW add in the event of an injury?

Chad Young: I almost always have backups rather than waiting.

Annonymous: Do you chase SP with low HR rates on draft day, or is it too random to target

Chad Young: In 4×4 I absolutely target that. In FGPTs, I am looking more at overall performance and less at specific numbers.

hayden: How do I handle this MI situation? I have $27 Altuve, $19 Lowe, $15 Muncy, $11 Cronenworth, and $6 Steer. I’m leaning cut Lowe as well as both Cronenworth and Steer and hope to get a SS at draft, but that would send me into draft with only one SS eligible ($3 Gordon).

Chad Young: Keep Altuve and Muncy for sure. I would probably cut Lowe, but only cause what are you going to do with him? Cronenworth I would keep because he can backup everything and offers you some floor. Mentioned this earlier but this is the exact situation I like him for – provides some safety.

Chad Young: Oh and Steer I would treat like a prospect – which probably means cut

5TOOLER: $6 1B/3B Bohm?

Chad Young: Cut, but I might be willing to go to $6 at auction if I need a 3B.

KDL212: FGPTs – Keep CJ Cron at $18 (Naylor on my roster) where there are few quality 1B up for auction (Abreu, Cronenworth, Voit), so getting him back may not save money

Chad Young: I would cut Cron at $18 and see what the auction holds. I bet more names pop up tonight.

Lee: Where do you see Ian Anderson’s ceiling now that he’s had some significant time in the majors? Does he recover at all?

Chad Young: Ceiling is not that high – I don’t think he can be an ace. But I do think he can rebound and wouldn’t be surprised if I pick him up for cheap a couple place. That said, he has yet to be drafted in the mock auctions, even by me.

JR: What do you think about Spencer Steer’s chances to contribute in CIN? It looks like he has a good chance to start, and in that ballpark, could be a sleeper breakout, maybe?

Chad Young: I like Steer a lot. I don’t want to be reliant on him, but if I can have him at <$5 the breakout potential is interesting.

Chip: I made a ton of offseason trades to push my 12th place Otto team into contention, yet couldn’t close the door on a ‘traditional’ ace. The best starter in the pool that I see is Snell. Do I just try to fill my staff with volume at this point? And, are there under the radar guys who you are more bullish on than the industry (think Lance Lynn when he broke out)?

Chad Young: I actually like Snell quite a bit, but I wouldn’t stress about finding an “ace” – just go get enough SP to fill your innings.

JR: With all of your player values released (thanks much!), what is one player that you are higher on than the rest of the market, and one player your are lower on?

Chad Young: Higher: It appears I am the high man on Glasnow. I am good with that.

Chad Young: Lower: Bobby Witt, Jr. People are way too high on him. He wasn’t good last year!

Adam K: Loved your positional rankings, would you consider a piece that highlights a few sleepers at each position? Any favorites to call out for this chat?

Chad Young: A few people put out some recommendations for content they would like to see. Here is a good place to share those ideas: https://community.ottoneu.com/t/what-content-do-you-want-to-see/12495/…

Chad Young: As for sleepers, I think the market has over-corrected a bit on Mountcastle and has not yet adjusted to what Nico Hoerner did last year.

Adam K: Which projection systems do you tend to rely on most for creating Ottoneu $ values?

Chad Young: I use ZiPS, Steamer, THE BAT X, and ATC. And I like to compare outputs from all four

ottobot88: Is Tanner houck a keep at 5?

Chad Young: I don’t think so, but don’t tell me Keep or Kut co-host. Pete would kill me.

so high but still cheap?: FGpts would you keep a $53 Freeman? mountcastle and abreu are the only free agents of any worth and Batx auction calc has him $55–strains my credulity

Chad Young: I don’t love teh auction calculator’s outputs for FGPTs and I agree that is too high for Freeman. I would cut

Before the wire: In an established league with inflation, do you keep as the back end of a staff: $10 Sonny Gray, $4 Martin Perez, $4 Mikolas

Chad Young: Gray is fine, I don’t love the other two and I would cut.

JR: Does $6 Kyle Wright for $5 Yandy Diaz seem reasonable? H2H Fangraphs points league.

Chad Young: Sure, but gimme Yandy

viceroy: Keep 8 ESPN points (I know) no contracts: Will Smith (C), Goldschmidt, Altuve, Lindor, JRam, Yordan Alvarez, Seiya Suzuki, Gavin Lux, Luis Arraez, Ohtani, Nick Lodolo, Nestor Cortes, Clase, Edwin Diaz, Lance Lynn, Giolito, Flaherty

Chad Young: Goldy, Altuve, Ramirez, Yordan, Ohtani, Clase, Diaz and….ummmm…Lindor I htink? man I did not give you any SP eh? Well, Ohtani. Yeah, those 8, I think.

Mitch: Any recommendations on how to think about lower-tier multi-position guys? For example, I don’t have a great MI and have a number of potential useful players at prices I wish were at least a few bucks lower (Brendan Donovan for $10, Brandon Drury for $6, Josh Rojas for $4).

Chad Young: i like that for Donovan, less so for Drury, fine with $4 Rojas too

JR: How much priority do you put on having a few multipositional players on your roster (esp. IF/OF)? I have less this year that previously, and it sure helps in keeping a line up full. In H2H leagues with no G caps, having the depth and positional flexibility to keep a line up full seems key.

Chad Young: This has come up a few times – it is not a thing I intentionally set out to do except for in OPL, but I definitely nudge guys up a $1 here or there if I think they can help in multiple spots.

Michael: Deadline trade offer: I’d get $13 Taylor Ward for a $9 Ryan McMahon and a $4 Felix Bautista.  Appealing but I’m deep in OF (Eloy, Bryant, Nimmo, Teoscar and Renfroe) but McMahon is my only 2B and backup at 3B.

Chad Young: I would have taken Ward anyway

RP strategy: understand that you want high P/IP but if you can get a bulk RP at 5+ can you skimp on a spot starter? or is the boost from an 60 inning 7-8 pt guy too much?

Chad Young: What is a bulk guy, exactly? You are talking 70-80 innings instead of around 60? No one is going 100 or anything. So at 75 innings vs. 60. If the 60 IP guy is 7.5 P/IP he puts up 450 points and you get maybe 60 more from a SP at 4 P/IP. That means the 75 inning guy needs to be at 6.8 P/IP. More than likely, a bulk guy isn’t there.

Marmol: How do you feel about Domonic Smith at $3 since he’ll have playing time? Or Kyle Lewis at $3 when there’s no promise of playing time?

Chad Young: Cutting both, but could see buying back into either. Smith will be free at auctions for sure.

Chad Young: Ok folks, I need to wind down. Thanks for joining! Hope this was helpful!

Chad Young: Good luck with your final cuts and welcome to draft season!