Chad Young’s SP Tiered Rankings for 4×4 Ottoneu
Ranking starting pitchers is probably harder than any other position. There are so many names to rank and there is so much to rank them on. Do you trust projections? Was that second half surge because of that new pitch? Or should we remember that correlation does not imply causation? And so I always struggle with this list. This year, I found the top of the list relatively straightforward, but really struggled with a huge swath of names from about 20-70.
(If you want, you can skip the intro and my thoughts on the position, and go right to the rankings. As a reminder, my process and a long FAQ on my rankings can be found in my rankings preview.)
I struggled with that large group because outside roughly the top 20, I very quickly get into potential aces with real warts or risk, and then we slide from that into unproven arms with big upside. If you go through my notes starting around number 20, you immediately see the questions and warts: lots of volume concerns, homer-prone pitchers who take a hit in 4×4, pitchers coming off rough years. And if you jump down to number 70 or so, you see some names I really like because they provide upside.
That is causing my some consternation as I build rotations in my leagues. I have multiple leagues where someone like Joe Ryan or Hunter Greene is one of my top, relatively expensive starters, and I find myself grimacing at their HR/9. I have another where Pablo López was a key name for me, and the injury risk raises my blood pressure. And that makes me want to trade those guys. They are expensive and I have questions!
Then you go further down the list and you see names like Braxton Ashcraft, Connelly Early, and Joey Cantillo, and I really like those guys. I want to add those guys! But there is a reason those guys are ranked multiple tiers lower than the names in the last paragraph. The challenge for me is that I feel like I am holding my nose while paying up for those top 20-30 guys and I am excited to add those 60th-80th guys. But you can’t win without good pitching and the best way to get good pitching isn’t to just ignore the top 30 because they make you nervous.
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I am trying to counteract this two ways. One is to just get over it. Greene will give up a lot of homers. Fine. He’ll do so many other things well and help me a ton in the other three categories. That is still worth it! Don’t bail on him entirely just because of one category; rank guys based on what you expect, get comfortable with those prices, and don’t cut them or trade them away cheaply just to get rid of them.
The other is that, for really the first time ever, I am finding myself buying legit aces. I traded for a Chris Sale. I traded for a Yoshinobu Yamamoto. I am also trying to get the cheap value guys I like, but I am finding I would rather pay the premium fo rthe top tiers than pay the lesser-premium for the guys that make me anxious.
I guess we will see how that works out.
4×4 SP Rankings for Ottoneu
Chad Young’s Ottoneu 4×4 SP Tiers
| Tier | Rank | Player | Pos | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45-$54 | 1 | Tarik Skubal | SP | He’s won back-to-back Cy Young awards and there isn’t much reason to think he won’t win a third if he stays healthy. |
| $45-$54 | 2 | Paul Skenes | SP | You could make a case that Skenes should be #1, given the age, but at this price tier, there is limited long-term value anyway, and I still think you get more volume from Skubal. |
| $45-$54 | 3 | Garrett Crochet | SP | Crochet is something of a distant third for me, but still very much in this top tier. |
| $36-$44 | 4 | Cristopher Sanchez | SP | I have a little bit of a concern that the HR/FB rate could go up, but the GB% makes that almost a moot point. |
| $36-$44 | 5 | Logan Webb | SP | The consistently low HR/9 in a ton of innings makes him particularly valuable for this format – he isn’t top-5 anywhere else. |
| $28-$35 | 6 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | SP | Does a lot of what Webb and Sanchez do, but maybe not as well as either of them. |
| $28-$35 | 7 | Bryan Woo | SP | The low walk rate helps keep an elevated HR rate from killing him, but that HR rate does matter here. |
| $28-$35 | 8 | Logan Gilbert | SP | Despite the missed time in 2025, if you were making a list of guys with a shot at 200 innings, he would be one of the few names on that list. |
| $28-$35 | 9 | Max Fried | SP | 2025 had increased velo and a big jump in Stuff+ that garnered more whiffs but not really more strikeouts. Could those strikeouts be coming? |
| $28-$35 | 10 | Hunter Brown | SP | If I were a betting man, I would bet on 2026 to look more like 2024 than 2025. Which is, you know, still really good. |
| $28-$35 | 11 | Chris Sale | SP | At some point, Chris Sale will age and fall hard, but I would bet against that for now – the age does impact his keeper value, or he could be higher. |
| $28-$35 | 12 | Framber Valdez | SP | His ability to limit HR is a huge asset in 4×4 and the nice thing is there is no park small enough to turn his grounders into homers. |
| $28-$35 | 13 | George Kirby | SP | The 4.21 ERA is a lie, but a big drop in Stuff+ is at least a little concerning, and something to watch in Spring Training. |
| $28-$35 | 14 | Cole Ragans | SP | Seeing him back on the mound and performing tempered some of my concerns but not all of them; the new dimensions won’t help but you can’t hit a HR on a pitch you swing through. |
| $21-$27 | 15 | Shohei Ohtani | Util/SP | He should probably not be expected to be much more than a $20-$23 SP |
| $21-$27 | 16 | Hunter Greene | SP | I like him a bit more in almost any other format, because the HR risk hurts so much more here; though it is pretty impactful in points leagues, as well. |
| $21-$27 | 17 | Jacob deGrom | SP | Projections all put him a tier higher, but also call for 180ish innings and I am not paying for more than 160, and I am not banking on more than 120. |
| $21-$27 | 18 | Blake Snell | SP | Career FIP by month: 4.10, 4.16, 3.46, 3.50, 3.03, 2.22. Don’t panic over a slow start. But don’t bank on Cy Young performance from the jump either. |
| $21-$27 | 19 | Freddy Peralta | SP | I would feel a little better if I were confident on his team and park, but I don’t think a trade will move his value that much, unless something extreme happens. [EDIT: Wrote this before the trade; the trade happened; it didn’t move his value much, if at all; happy to leave him right here] |
| $21-$27 | 20 | Spencer Schwellenbach | SP | We should be on track for a full season of Schwelly, but – like much of this tier – volume will be a question mark. |
| $21-$27 | 21 | Dylan Cease | SP | Even year Cease is elite, right? He’s a lock to give you volume and that volume could be elite or could be below average, which makes him hard to value. |
| $21-$27 | 22 | Jesús Luzardo | SP | In 2025, his velo and Stuff+ both ticked up, and he posted a career best FIP in a career most IP, but his ERA lagged behind a bit. Could there be upside as a result? |
| $21-$27 | 23 | Tyler Glasnow | SP | Like Degrom, projections think he is better than this, but they call for 148 IP, which would be a career high. I’ll take the under. |
| $21-$27 | 24 | Joe Ryan | SP | Good WHIP, decent ERA, bad HR/9. Ryan is what he is, and that isn’t bad, but it’s not an ace. |
| $15-$20 | 25 | Kyle Bradish | SP | He’s easily up a tier if you promise me 160 IP – with that volume, I take him over a number of guys, probably moving him up to between Snell and Peralta. |
| $15-$20 | 26 | Eury Pérez | SP | I think the K-rate will go up; I want to see the BB-rate go down. Those two things are a clear path to a >$20 SP. |
| $15-$20 | 27 | Michael King | SP | I think the projections are optimistic on volume and pessimistic on production, so maybe they are about right overall? Though I would rather 100 elite innings than 150 middling ones. |
| $15-$20 | 28 | Nick Pivetta | SP | He continues to run high hard-hit and barrel rates; Petco helped with the HR problem, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some regression back to more HRA in 2026. |
| $15-$20 | 29 | Sonny Gray | SP | He was excellent last year, but the signs of decline (velo and Stuff+) are there, and at his age they can’t be ignored. Fenway won’t help either. |
| $15-$20 | 30 | Pablo López | SP | Despite the shiny ERA, his K%-BB% in 2025 was his worst in Minnesota, and I know the team says he is healthy, but I am still nervous. |
| $15-$20 | 31 | Zack Wheeler | SP | I just need to see him actually look healthy on a mound before I really believe. But if you are auctioning later in March and he looks like himself, you can move him up a ton. |
| $15-$20 | 32 | Nathan Eovaldi | SP | Last year was crazy good, but I am not sure I see anything to suggest he repeats that rather than reverting to who we know him to be. |
| $10-$14 | 33 | Nick Lodolo | SP | Watch the command and walk rate early – holding those gains is the key to him staying this high. |
| $10-$14 | 34 | Ryan Pepiot | SP | Here’s a fun one – OOPSY’s projection is a near-$20 value; THE BAT and Depth Charts are near-replacement level. But I think the move back to the Trop does wonders for him. |
| $10-$14 | 35 | Drew Rasmussen | SP | He projects a tier up, but that is with an IP count I don’t feel comfortable assuming, so I’ll stay down here. |
| $10-$14 | 36 | Brandon Woodruff | SP | It wasn’t just a career-best K%-BB% in 2025, it was a career-best K% and a career-best BB%. I did not have that on my bingo card. |
| $10-$14 | 37 | Gerrit Cole | RP | I think others are more risk averse than I am on Cole, and his value is much higher in keeper formats – even at this price tier, if he gives you 100 innings of vintage-esque Cole, he’s a GREAT keeper next year. |
| $10-$14 | 38 | Ranger Suárez | SP | He’s still going to be only an okay source of K, but limiting power is one of his biggest strengths and Fenway should help with that, at least relative to his old home. |
| $10-$14 | 39 | Gavin Williams | SP | Everything looked better down the stretch – the results and the Stuff+ and the Location+ and so there is some reason to hope he’s figuring things out. |
| $10-$14 | 40 | Emmet Sheehan | SP | If he can stay healthy, he has a chance to both pitch really well and be the guy who the Dodgers are willing to let throw a ton of innings while everyone else gets rest for October. |
| $10-$14 | 41 | Cam Schlittler | SP | I am probably overly skeptical, but I want to see better command or more ground balls or (ideally) both, because I wonder if the league will catch up to him. |
| $10-$14 | 42 | Trey Yesavage | SP/RP | I have real questions about the command, but I think he’ll limit HR which helps ERA and of course is double valuable in this format. |
| $10-$14 | 43 | Jacob Misiorowski | SP | If Schlittler had too many walks and too few grounders… |
| $10-$14 | 44 | Kevin Gausman | SP | It’s a little hard to know what to do with good, but not great, performance over such high volume, but I think it’s pretty valuable, certainly worth going into double figures. |
| $10-$14 | 45 | Edward Cabrera | SP | Did you know going from loanDepot to Wrigley was an improvement for a pitcher? I didn’t! But even with a better situation, there’s a lack of consistency with Cabrera that I can’t get around. |
| $10-$14 | 46 | Shane McClanahan | SP/RP | It’s fair to wonder if he’ll be healthy and it’s fair to wonder how he’ll perform after so much tim eoff, but I am willing to pay a slight premium on projections because there’s “cheap ace for the foreseeable future” upside here. |
| $10-$14 | 47 | Bubba Chandler | SP/RP | He gets the whiffs for the K’s to increase. |
| $10-$14 | 48 | Sandy Alcantara | SP | Everything was coming back by the end of the season, and the results were starting to follow, but he was still more homer-prone than we had come to expect, and that is a bit of a yellow flag (not exactly red, but worth noting anyway). |
| $10-$14 | 49 | Spencer Strider | SP | I see people wanting to go closer to $20 on him, but even his projections, which call for a real bounce back, aren’t THAT optimistic. |
| $10-$14 | 50 | Carlos Rodón | SP | The stuff was worse, the velo was worse and now he is hurt. That’s a lot of risk piling up for a guy who has never been a paragon of reliability anyway. |
| $10-$14 | 51 | MacKenzie Gore | SP | That second half fade seems to come every. single. year. Maybe start with him and then in June, trade him for Snell? |
| $6-$9 | 52 | Justin Steele | RP | I think he’s closer to ace-tier, when healthy and it sounds like you’ll get at least four months of him this year. |
| $6-$9 | 53 | Nolan McLean | SP | I think the strikeouts come down and he ends up a poor man’s Logan Webb, which isn’t a bad place to end up, but it’s a narrower path to success than just blowing everyone away. |
| $6-$9 | 54 | Trevor Rogers | SP | So much of his 2025 looks legit, but would big-time regression stun you? Or even moderately surprise you? |
| $6-$9 | 55 | Chase Burns | SP/RP | I wish the park were better, but I liked everything I saw from him. |
| $6-$9 | 56 | Tanner Bibee | SP | Bibee looked like a different pitcher down the stretch, and he credits “just super simple stuff that makes me look stupid for five months.” |
| $6-$9 | 57 | Shane Baz | SP | His H/R splits last year suggest that Steinbrenner Field really hurt him, that field is no more. |
| $6-$9 | 58 | José Soriano | SP | This is a format designed for him. The WHIP will be bad and the K won’t be high, but he makes that work by avoiding HR. But “designed for him” doesn’t mean he’s a star. |
| $6-$9 | 59 | Kris Bubic | SP | I suspect there will be concerns that the new fences in KC are a problem, but he showed no H/R split in terms of HR. |
| $6-$9 | 60 | Reese Olson | SP | He probably needs to turn a corner to justify this price, but he has the ingredients to be a strong 4×4 rotation option. |
| $6-$9 | 61 | Tatsuya Imai | SP | Projections are all below replacement level, which surprised me, but there are real reasons to be cautious with expectations. |
| $6-$9 | 62 | Luis Castillo | SP | The first thing we tend to look at with a pitcher is FIP or some other such overall measure, but I think that overrates him here – the ERA isn’t bad, but the WHIP doesn’t help, he doesn’t limit HR, and the K come from volume. |
| $6-$9 | 63 | Ryne Nelson | SP/RP | With such good Stuff+, I expected to be into his OOPSY valuation, but that only cmes out at $6, so maybe I am just too high on him? |
| $6-$9 | 64 | Jack Flaherty | SP | He’s up and down, which makes him hard to trust, but he has been pretty effective with Detroit. |
| $6-$9 | 65 | Matthew Boyd | SP | I know he was good last year, but the low K-rate and the poor track record with HR just scream that regression is coming. |
| $6-$9 | 66 | David Peterson | SP | I am really torn on where he should go – maybe down a tier? But I think he is a good bet to be an asset in HR/9 with a good shot to make all your other rates better, too. |
| $6-$9 | 67 | Shane Bieber | SP | I am a Bieber fan, and I am sure he should probably be valued as a $10+ SP, but the combination of performance concerns and the weird talk track around his forearm this off-season are enough that my price point means I am probably just out on him. |
| $6-$9 | 68 | Zac Gallen | SP | As easy as it is to note his improvements in the second half, they didn’t exactly make him an ace again, and at the moment we don’t even know where he might pitch. |
| $6-$9 | 69 | Kodai Senga | SP | I think we are just seeing a decline in progress. |
| $3-$5 | 70 | Shota Imanaga | SP | Velo was down, stuff was down, swing strikes were down. I want to see some of that return before I get too excited, but I’ll pay a bit to have the right to cut him if everything stays ugly. |
| $3-$5 | 71 | Braxton Ashcraft | SP/RP | The small sample last year was really intriguing. That alone is worth enough to buy in. |
| $3-$5 | 72 | Connelly Early | SP/RP | Love the player, hate the game fact that the Red Sox went out and added a bunch of arms and now he seems totally buried and needs to be treated like an exciting prospect. |
| $3-$5 | 73 | Roki Sasaki | SP | The talent is there for a breakout, but you need to treat him like any other prospect with a bad debut. |
| $3-$5 | 74 | Robby Snelling | SP | He has been on and off the radar since 2023, but should be firmly on it now, with a clear path to innings in Miami. |
| $3-$5 | 75 | Joey Cantillo | SP/RP | Yes, he spent a chunk of last year as a reliever, but his best innings came as a starter, so the transition should not be an issue. |
| $3-$5 | 76 | Jared Jones | RP | Trust that swinging strike rate and hope he comes back healthy sooner rather than later. |
| $3-$5 | 77 | Mike Burrows | SP | I hate the move to Houston, but I love that Houston wanted him. When I dove deep into him earlier in the off-season, I came away impressed. |
| $3-$5 | 78 | Corbin Burnes | SP | The mid-season return is concerning both because you already have to limit 2026 expectations and because there is still so much time for a setback to cost you more time. But if you view it as paying $3-$5 now for a $5-$7 full season of Burnes in 2027, that’s pretty fun, right? |
| $3-$5 | 79 | Bryce Miller | SP | The good version of him was relying on excellent Location+ and the bad version of him didn’t have it and that isn’t a particularly sticky skill. |
| $3-$5 | 80 | Robbie Ray | SP | As tempting as it is to credit SF with his big HR/9 gains, he pitched in that park in 2024 and it didn’t help then. |
| $3-$5 | 81 | Cade Horton | SP | How much do you want to pay to see if he can continue to limit the long-ball as well as he did last year, while returning very few strikeouts? |
| $3-$5 | 82 | Payton Tolle | SP/RP | The path to success will be translating his MiLB BB% to the majors, but I do wonder about the HR-rate – the GB rate is low and he gave up some homers in the minors. |
| $3-$5 | 83 | Andrew Painter | SP | The shine has really come off, but there are a lot of things to like; he is just less exciting than a lot of the other young, talented arms you can go get. |
| $3-$5 | 84 | Zebby Matthews | SP | If not for a high BABIP, he would be much more of a popular fantasy pick these days, but even if that corrects, he needs to limit the longball to really rise up. |
| $3-$5 | 85 | Grant Taylor | SP/RP | I don’t know why the White Sox are set on torturing me, but using Taylor as a multi-inning guy isn’t the worst for 4×4. It’s just that he looks like a legit exciting young SP and they are going to burn a year of his career on this. |
| $3-$5 | 86 | Joe Musgrove | RP | We know the talent is there, but he has limited K upside, doesn’t really help in HR/9, hasn’t cracked 100 IP for years, and will have to work off rust. That’s a lot of concerns piling up. |
| $3-$5 | 87 | Aaron Nola | SP | In general, I think the pendulum has swung too far on Nola and he’ll probably be fine this year, but even his upside is a HR/9 disaster. |
| $3-$5 | 88 | Grayson Rodriguez | RP | For all the injury issues, the last we saw him wasn’t that long ago (2024) and that was the second of two 115-125 IP seasons in which he looked pretty good. |
| $3-$5 | 89 | Andrew Abbott | SP | You are just so reliant on HR/FB rate and BABIP when you count on Abbott and it is hard to feel good about that. |
| $3-$5 | 90 | Clay Holmes | SP | For a month or so, it looked like the transition to SP would go swimmingly. Then it didn’t. But he wasn’t bad and he lasted the season, so that is something to build on. |
| $1-$2 | 91 | Hurston Waldrep | SP | The K%-BB% isn’t super inspiring, and I suspect a lot of the projections are low because of that. |
| $1-$2 | 92 | Parker Messick | SP | His MLB walk rate was so much better than anything we saw before that I don’t know how much we can trust it (probably not much) and without that, things get iffier. |
| $1-$2 | 93 | Jonah Tong | SP | He’s likely outside the rotation to open the year, but the bigger question is can he bring down the quality of contact in his next look at MLB. Fewer walks also wouldn’t hurt. |
| $1-$2 | 94 | Gage Jump | SP | I wish he weren’t in that park, and I wouldn’t count on much from him this year, but the rest (like, you know, his ability to pitch) looks great. |
| $1-$2 | 95 | Liam Doyle | Util | He’s as exciting as a guy with 3 pro innings can be. |
| $1-$2 | 96 | Jack Leiter | SP | From July 6 until August 18, Leiter walked at least two in every start. After that, he walked 10 over 43 IP in 7 GS, posting a BB/9 of 2.09, barely more than half what he was posting the rest of the season. That’s the corner he needed to turn. Did he actually turn it? Or will the control waver again? |
| $1-$2 | 97 | Logan Henderson | SP | The projections aren’t buying it, but you can’t completely ignore his 2025. |
| $1-$2 | 98 | Cody Ponce 폰세 | SP | Crushing high level competition anywhere in the world will get you a look, but I am skeptical of pitchers coming back from the KBO translating newfound success back to MLB. |
| $1-$2 | 99 | Chad Patrick | SP | Good results, good org, good Stuff+, great name. |
| $1-$2 | 100 | Cade Cavalli | SP | The projections aren’t bad, so I put him in the $1-$2 tier instead of the $0-$1 tier, but I don’t think I’ll be the one picking him up. |
| $1-$2 | 101 | Hagen Smith | SP | His ranking is more reflective of my expecations that he is a slow climber (mostly because the Sox have no reason to do anything else) than it is of how I feel about his prospects. |
| $1-$2 | 102 | Reid Detmers | RP | I still think he could figure something out. I am just not sure he is in the organization that will help him do that. |
| $1-$2 | 103 | Noah Schultz | SP | He is still an intriguing prospect, but goodness that walk right is concerning. |
| $1-$2 | 104 | Quinn Priester | SP/RP | He does just enough things just well enough to be just good enough to just belong on rosters. |
| $1-$2 | 105 | Will Warren | SP | Decent rotation depth option, with a little bit of upside. More interesting than your vanilla innings eaters, safer than your upside plays. |
| $1-$2 | 106 | Merrill Kelly 켈리 | SP | It’s a boring profile, but boring can still have value. |
| $1-$2 | 107 | Brandon Pfaadt | SP | We’re more than 450 innings into his MLB career and I think he just kinda is what he is. |
| $1-$2 | 108 | Ryan Weathers | SP | He has been painfully homer-prone and now he moves to Yankee Stadium? At least he’s a lefty, I guess? |
| $1-$2 | 109 | Reynaldo López | RP | If Atlanta is planning to use him in the rotation (and they are), he’s a worth dart throw. |
| $1-$2 | 110 | Noah Cameron | SP | The rookie season was great, but nothing under the hood looks exciting and now the park is less forgiving. |
| $1-$2 | 111 | Sean Manaea | SP | I was pretty high on him last year. Not so much this year. |
| $0-$1 | 112 | Braxton Garrett | RP | If he can continue to post elite BB rates, the bad surface numbers will improve and match his ERA estimators. |
| $0-$1 | 113 | Troy Melton | SP/RP | He wasn’t getting whiffs as a reliever so while he could be a useful SP, there is work to be done. |
| $0-$1 | 114 | Mick Abel | SP | He actually wasn’t half bad after the move to the Twins, but he could easily be 10th on their SP depth chart for the moment. |
| $0-$1 | 115 | Brandon Sproat | SP/RP | His Triple-A swinging strike rate wasn’t good and his MLB swinging-strike rate was abysmal. |
| $0-$1 | 116 | Johan Oviedo | SP | He’s in a new org and it’s an org that seeks out his profile. That alone is at least a little bit interesting. |
| $0-$1 | 117 | Thomas White | SP | I know people are excited about the talent, but he apparently can’t throw the fastball for strikes and it shows in the walk rate. |
| $0-$1 | 118 | Yusei Kikuchi | SP | If you need innings, he should provide innings that aren’t a disaster, and there is upside given the on-and-off performances. |
| $0-$1 | 119 | River Ryan | RP | He’s well under the radar right now, but reports this off-season are good and the talent is undeniable if he can stay healthy. But he likely needs a trade because that LAD rotation is deep. |
| $0-$1 | 120 | Clarke Schmidt | SP | Despite the fancy ERA, Schmidt wasn’t the same pitcher in 2025, and I am not inclined to put much hope in a big rebound. |
| $0-$1 | 121 | Tyler Mahle | SP | He is an interesting option to help pull down your HR/9, but that’s a stat that fluctuates a lot and there isn’t much else to bank on. |
| $0-$1 | 122 | Seth Lugo | SP | Velo, Stuff+ and command are all trending poorly for multiple years and that’s not likely to turn around at age 36. |
| $0-$1 | 123 | Mitch Keller | SP | Mitch Keller is boring, but boring can fill important innings. |
| $0-$1 | 124 | Casey Mize | SP | He shows enough flashes that he should be rostered, but there is a lot of risk, too. |
| $0-$1 | 125 | Kumar Rocker | SP | I wouldn’t say it is time to give up on Rocker, but there just isn’t enough to entice me into picking him up right now. |
| $0-$1 | 126 | Brayan Bello | SP | He lost so many swinging strikes, and he needs to get those back just to stay viable. |
| $0-$1 | 127 | Max Meyer | SP | When you throwing late-auction darts, his pedigree isn’t the worst target to aim for. |
| $0-$1 | 128 | Quinn Mathews | SP | That walk rate is disqualifying for now |
| $0-$1 | 129 | Jamie Arnold | Util | I’ll wait for a pro debut – at least a few spring outings – before getting too amped up, but the scouting reports are intriguing. |
| $0-$1 | 130 | Joe Boyle | SP | He clearly has talent but at age 26 he still hasn’t mananged to limit the walks, which makes it a lot harder to believe he will do so in the future. |
| $0-$1 | 131 | Ricky Tiedemann | Util | He should be ready for the start of the year, but his role, whether he’s on the MLB roster and more leave us with more questions than answers. |
| $0-$1 | 132 | Landen Roupp | SP | I can kinda squint and see some upside, but he looks more like “solid MLB rotation fodder” than a guy you need to roster in fantasy. |
| $0-$1 | 133 | Hunter Barco | SP/RP | Walk rate jumped when he got to Triple-A, but if he can bring it back down, this is an intriguing arm. |
| $0-$1 | 134 | Adrian Houser | SP/RP | His 2025 really rests on that improved HR/FB rate, but his hard-hit rate was a career-worst 47%, so how good do we feel about his ability to limit HR? |
| $0-$1 | 135 | Foster Griffin | SP | MLB teams wouldn’t give him more than spot starter mony, which feels like a pretty useful data point. |
| $0-$1 | 136 | Bailey Ober | SP | Things to watch in Spring: his Stuff+ and his velo. Until you get really good news on those fronts, he’s better left off your roster. |
| $0-$1 | 137 | Christian Scott | RP | The HR were bad (in Triple-A, too) but his track record suggests he’ll do better. The whiffs were totally absent, but his track record suggests he’ll do better. Those are two big issues though. |
| $0-$1 | 138 | Ben Brown | SP/RP | Worth watching, but only a watchlist guy for me. |
| $0-$1 | 139 | Michael Soroka | SP/RP | There were some aspects of his 2025 that are kind of intriguing, so I could see taking a look, maybe? |
| $0-$1 | 140 | Ian Seymour | SP/RP | None of the projections buy that there is much to get excited about, and when the projections all agree, I tend to believe them. |
| $0-$1 | 141 | Jacob Latz | SP/RP | If he comes out in Spring and earns a rotation spot, he could be an interesting streaming/part-time type option. |
| $0-$1 | 142 | Drew Anderson 앤더슨 | RP | He hasn’t gotten the press Cody Ponce has, but he was almost as good in the KBO last year. |
| $0 | 143 | David Festa | SP | He should be ready for Spring, but it’s not a guarantee and then you still don’t know if he will be good enough to help (or even have a rotation spot). |
| $0 | 144 | Rhett Lowder | SP/RP | He’s more floor than ceiling and injuries ask questions about floor. |
| $0 | 145 | Matthew Liberatore | SP/RP | His prospect shine is still carrying weight, but his path to being a useful 4×4 pitcher isn’t clear to me. |
| $0 | 146 | Seth Hernandez | Util | Even as an early pick, I am not ready to roster a prep arm that is yet to make a pro debut. |
| $0 | 147 | Spencer Arrighetti | SP | I am tempted to just scrap his 2025 entirely, but even then, we need to see better control. |
| $0 | 148 | Lucas Giolito | SP | He wasn’t terrible last year and there are rumors the Tigers might be interested. That park would certainly help. |
| $0 | 149 | Michael Wacha | SP | Not many Ks, not many GB. There might not be anyone less excited about the new fences at Kauffman than Wacha. |
| $0 | 150 | Ryan Weiss 와이스 | SP | As good as he was in the KBO, he is no better than the third best KBO pitcher coming over this year, which gives you some perspective. |
| $0 | 151 | Tink Hence | SP | The org is talking about moving him to the pen and even in the pen, he needs to limit walks more than he has. |
| $0 | 152 | Tyler Bremner | Util | I think he is just barely off my radar for the moment, but he is supposedly getting an invite to MLB Spring Training, so that could change. |
| $0 | 153 | Trey Gibson | SP | As bad as the 29 Triple-A innings were, the rest of his season was pretty intriguing. |
| $0 | 154 | AJ Smith-Shawver | SP | He’s probably not back until 2027 and I probably won’t buy back in until late this year. |
| $0 | 155 | Anthony Kay | RP | Another re-import, Kay did have nearly the success that Ponce did, even if he is coming from a higher level league. |
| $0 | 156 | Taj Bradley | SP | After landing in Minnesota, his whiff rate and chase rate both went up, so maybe they have found something they can build in with a full off-season and Spring? |
| $0 | 157 | Luis Gil | SP | Even a return to his 2024 form probably includes expected regression off his ERA that year; I think you need to believe he finds a new talent level to be interested. |
| $0 | 158 | Cristian Javier | SP | My first thought was “he was so good and it wasn’t that long ago” and my second thought was “wait that was in 2022??” |
| $0 | 159 | Cade Povich | SP | He’ll be on my watchlists because the xFIP and SIERA suggest he was better than he seemed and he has demonstrated more bat missing in the past, so there is a still a chance he breaks out. |
| $0 | 160 | Slade Cecconi | SP | He’s a perfectly fine 4th or 5th starter, but unless you think the Guards can unlock something, he’s not a fantasy option. |
| $0 | 161 | Justin Verlander | SP | I know people say he was good down the stretch, but mostly he just had good HR/FB luck down the stretch. |
| $0 | 162 | Brady Singer | SP | Somehow, an increase in LA, barrel rate, and EV, paired with a move to a much more homer-friendly park, led to a decrease in HR/FB rate. I wouldn’t bet on that sticking. |
| $0 | 163 | Steven Matz | SP/RP | Matz found success as a reliever, but it wasn’t a profile that looks like it would translate to “fantasy starter.” |
| $0 | 164 | Sawyer Gipson-Long | SP/RP | He is still working his way back, so he’s worth watching, but that’s all for me. |
| $0 | 165 | Zach Eflin | SP | He seems set to be #5 in Baltimore, and I bet they would like to move him out of the rotation by adding someone higher end, if they can. |
| $0 | 166 | Richard Fitts | SP | The K%-BB% isn’t great, but he also got hit HARD. |
| $0 | 167 | Hayden Wesneski | SP | The career 1.70 HR/9 is just too much to overlook. |
| $0 | 168 | Andre Pallante | SP | There is some value in a high GB rate if you just need low HR/9 innings, but the rest of the profile hurts too much. |
| $0 | 169 | José Berrios | SP | I have never been all the way in on him so you can only imagine where I am now. |
| $0 | 170 | Colin Rea | SP/RP | Rea was in and out of my rosters last year, but I think he mostly was getting lucky. |
| $0 | 171 | AJ Blubaugh | SP/RP | He didn’t look good in Triple-A and his BABIP was his carrying “skill” in MLB. |
| $0 | 172 | Jackson Jobe | SP | I can’t stash him all year knowing how poorly he pitched. He’ll be on my watchlist when he’s healthy or closer to it. |
| $0 | 173 | Caden Dana | SP | He desperately needs to find more command. |
| $0 | 174 | Luis Perales | Util | The command leaves a lot to be desired, but you can see why some scouts think there is upside. |
| $0 | 175 | Jarlin Susana | SP | I get that he might be a lot of fun, I am just not going to stash a guy with limited high minors experience who won’t see a mound this year. [EDIT: I was somehow way off on Susana’s injury status and timeline, so I am going to re-evaluate him. Suffice it to say, he will be up at least in the $0-$1 tier and maybe higher.] |
| $0 | 176 | Luis Morales | SP/RP | The struggles in Triple-A suggest he might need a bit more time. |
| $0 | 177 | Robert Gasser | SP/RP | I like some of what I see, but I think he is now behind Sproat and I don’t think the upside is big enough to wait on. |
| $0 | 178 | Dustin May | SP | I guess it is nice that he is getting another shot. |
| $0 | 179 | Brody Hopkins | SP | He’s still learning to pitch, so maybe the command will come? |
| $0 | 180 | Jacob Lopez | SP | Not super interesting even if he gets out of that park. |
| $0 | 181 | Chase Dollander | SP | Did we lose a chance to see an excellent career because of who drafted him? |
| $0 | 182 | Cody Bradford | RP | He is capable of providing some value, but coming off surgery and expected to miss a quarter or so of the season, he is a wait-and-see guy. |
| $0 | 183 | Tobias Myers | SP/RP | I need another season of ERA’s that undercut his peripherals before I start to wonder if that’s legit. |
| $0 | 184 | Grant Holmes | SP | I spent all of last season confusing Holmes and Taylor and other than their first names, they have very little in common. |
| $0 | 185 | Walker Buehler | SP | I have been the low man on Buehler for so long that it won’t be a surprise to see him this far down my list. |
| $0 | 186 | Luis Severino | SP | Man, it used to be so fun to watch him pitch. |
| $0 | 187 | Alek Manoah | SP/RP | The fact that he is getting another shot is pretty fun. |
| $0 | 188 | DL Hall | RP | Seems he’ll get another shot to start, but he’s closer to roster-worthy in the pen. |
| $0 | 189 | Jeffrey Springs | SP | For a minute there, I thought he might get back at least closer to his peak form. |
| $0 | 190 | Ty Madden | RP | I’d like to see him have some success at Triple-A before thinking about a fantasy role. |
| $0 | 191 | Michael McGreevy | SP | Just does not show signs he can miss bats. |
| $0 | 192 | Kyle Harrison | SP/RP | It’s not impossible to imagine a breakout, but it doesn’t seem likely, either. |
| $0 | 193 | Josiah Gray | RP | There is probably a talented SP still buried in there, but it’s hard to see how he turns a corner at this point. |
| $0 | 194 | Germán Márquez | SP | Will getting out of Coors save him? Is it just too late? |
| $0 | 195 | Gavin Stone | RP | It’s a bit of a boring profile, but he looks like he could be a useful MLB pitcher. |
| $0 | 196 | Trevor McDonald | SP/RP | His MLB numbers look great because if you combine a lot of grounders with basically no walks, you don’t need that many strikeouts. But that walk rate is SSS noise. |
| $0 | 197 | Tyler Wells | SP/RP | While BABIP played a big role last year, he is capable of giving you useful ERA and WHIP, but with so few strikeouts and so many HR, he risk on those other two rates is too big to take. |
| $0 | 198 | Sean Burke | SP/RP | He’s flashed the ability to pile up strikeouts, but not consistently and not with enough other skills to pop. |
| $0 | 199 | Shane Smith | SP | I think the projections might be a litlte low on him, but they would have to be pretty low to want to roster him. |
| $0 | 200 | Hayden Birdsong | SP/RP | It is awfully hard to overcome that many walks. |
| $0 | 201 | Hunter Dobbins | SP | It’s really hard to make it work with so few strikeouts. |
| $0 | 202 | Simeon Woods Richardson | SP | He has real value for the Twins that doesn’t translate to this format. |
| $0 | 203 | Stephen Kolek | SP | Look up one row. |
| $0 | 204 | Ryan Bergert | SP | Limiting HR played a big role in his limited success, and so I suspect he was not thrilled about the walls moving in. |
| $0 | 205 | Lance McCullers Jr. | SP | Unfortunately, I think we have moved past the “but what if he stayed healthy…” phase. |
| $0 | 206 | Kyle Leahy | RP | He is supposed to start, but his Stuff+ was unimpressive for a reliever and that doesn’t figure to improve in the rotation. |
| $0 | 207 | J.T. Ginn | SP/RP | If he doesn’t run a >20% HR/FB rate again, he’ll probably perform a lot better. Maybe not enough better, but a lot better. |
| $0 | 208 | Justin Wrobleski | SP/RP | He’s probably like their 10th starter, somewhere after “trading for Freddy Peralta.” |
| $0 | 209 | Cristian Mena | SP/RP | He’s an interesting MLB prospect, but not a a fantasy prospect. |
| $0 | 210 | Yoendrys Gómez | SP/RP | When you are onto your 4th org in 12 months, you need to be at least a little bit intriging, right? |
| $0 | 211 | Tylor Megill | SP | I am a Megill fan, but not enough of a fan to stash him through a lost season. |
| $0 | 212 | Eric Lauer 라우어 | SP/RP | There was that fun run in 2025, but don’t count on it happening again. |
| $0 | 213 | Zack Littell | SP | He’s a useful inning eater for an MLB team, but that isn’t what you should be looking for. |
| $0 | 214 | Ronel Blanco | SP | The regression was not shocking. |
| $0 | 215 | Kutter Crawford | RP | He’s probably not in the rotation to start the season, and when openings come up, he won’t be first in line for those either. |
| $0 | 216 | Jameson Taillon | SP | He provides real value for a real team, but limited K and lots of HR isn’t a good recipe for 4×4. |
| $0 | 217 | Patrick Corbin | SP | Ditching the four-seam for a cutter seems to have rejuvenated his career, but in this case “rejuvenated” means “extended as an innings eater.” |
| $0 | 218 | Eduardo Rodriguez | SP | Projections are knocking 0.25 HR/9 off this two years in AZ and that’s both a risky bet and not enough to get him above replacement level. |
| $0 | 219 | Dean Kremer | SP | With a non-elite ERA, you can still be usefu in 4×4 but you need to either deliver big K numbers or significantly suppress HR and he does neither. |
| $0 | 220 | Brad Lord | SP/RP | Lord the starter wasn’t very good. Lord the reliever wasn’t enough better to give me much hope. |
| $0 | 221 | Kai-Wei Teng | SP/RP | Rotation depth and not much more. |
| $0 | 222 | Sean Newcomb | SP/RP | He is going to try to move back into the rotation, but I am skeptical that can work for him. |
| $0 | 223 | Chris Bassitt | SP | I guess we’ll see where he lands, but I am probably not interested regardless. |
| $0 | 224 | Aaron Civale | SP/RP | He’ll land a job to eat innings somewhere. |
| $0 | 225 | Emerson Hancock | SP/RP | He’s probably outside the Mariners rotation and he doesn’t have a spot in an Ottoneu rotation. |
| $0 | 226 | Bryce Elder | SP | The velo keeps going up but so does the ERA. |
| $0 | 227 | Joey Wentz | SP/RP | Worked his way through five orgs in two years without impressing anywhere. |
| $0 | 228 | Keaton Winn | SP/RP | The abiity to limit walks is something to build on, but don’t think there’s enough there for fantasy relevance. |
| $0 | 229 | Janson Junk | SP/RP | He gives up way too much contact and way too much of that contact is loud. |
| $0 | 230 | Logan Allen로건 | SP | Allen is a perfectly adequate back end SP of the type that fantasy managers should ignore. |
| $0 | 231 | Chase Petty | SP/RP | The consistently low MiLB K-rates are a warning sign. |
| $0 | 232 | Griffin Canning | SP | Canning needs a team, then he needs to earn a job, then he needs to demonstrate some improvement, then we can talk about rostering him. |
| $0 | 233 | Logan Evans | SP | He’s probably buried deep in the rotation. |
| $0 | 234 | Blade Tidwell | SP/RP | His last stop in Triple-A was intriguing, but it was very short and the rest of his track record doesn’t suggest much. |
| $0 | 235 | Jordan Wicks | SP/RP | I think he ends up as a reliever, but he might just be a depth SP option. |
| $0 | 236 | Max Scherzer | SP | He wasn’t good last year, his underlying performance got worse in the playoffs, and I really wonder if he’ll get a job. |
| $0 | 237 | Ryan Yarbrough | SP/RP | The modern game just isn’t very forgiving at that velo. |
| $0 | 238 | Javier Assad | SP | He probably gets some starts here and there, but he’s not really a starter, per se. |
| $0 | 239 | Drew Thorpe | RP | I had questions already, and then he had a set back in his recovery and return. |
| $0 | 240 | JP Sears | SP | He might be in line for starts in SD, but his hold on a rotation spot would be tenuous. |
| $0 | 241 | Kyle Freeland | SP | Another guy whose career might have been really different if he had gone a pick higher or a pick lower. |
| $0 | 242 | Tomoyuki Sugano | SP | He had stretches of acceptable performance last year, but it never really looked sustainable. |
| $0 | 243 | Carmen Mlodzinski | SP/RP | Don’t get fooled by his overall line last year – he really struggled as a starter. |
| $0 | 244 | Carson Palmquist | SP/RP | You want to roster a risky Rockie? Didn’t think so. |
| $0 | 245 | McCade Brown | SP | If he got out of Coors…I probably still wouldn’t move him up very much, to be honest. |
| $0 | 246 | Patrick Sandoval | RP | The Sox won’t just DFA him if he looks decent and he is out of options, so they can’t send him to Triple-A. But he might look bad enough to be let go. |
| $0 | 247 | Miles Mikolas | SP | His already low K-rate is now slipping. |
| $0 | 248 | DJ Herz | RP | He probably makes it back this year, but not for sure, and he isn’t good enough to justify a stash. |
| $0 | 249 | Tanner Houck | SP | Really wish we could get a consistent healthy run from Houck, but we’re waiting a while for that. |
| $0 | 250 | John Means | SP/RP | Injured and unemployed and not worth a stash. |
| $0 | 251 | Bowden Francis | SP | I had high hopes at this time last year. |
| $0 | 252 | Kyle Hart 하트 | SP/RP | Hart’s biggest fantasy value is as a cautionary tale for pitchers coming back from the KBO. |
| $0 | 253 | JR Ritchie | SP | He has been more “decent” than excellent in the minors. |
| $0 | 254 | Sam Aldegheri | SP/RP | Technically still a prosepct, but not one that needs attention here. |
| $0 | 255 | Andrew Alvarez | SP | The brief look at MLB doesn’t look bd, but there isn’t really anything backing it up. |
| $0 | 256 | Frankie Montas | SP | Used to be one of my favorite pitchers. |
| $0 | 257 | Jake Irvin | SP | Nothing to get excited about. |
| $0 | 258 | Jose Quintana | SP | Dude just keeps plugging along. |
| $0 | 259 | Carson Whisenhunt | SP | The park could help him but only if he can find more swing-and-miss. |
| $0 | 260 | Colton Gordon | SP/RP | There are some questions in Houston’s rotation but not enough for Gordon. |
| $0 | 261 | Jason Alexander | SP/RP | What I said about Gordon applies here, too. |
| $0 | 262 | Tanner Gordon | SP | He’ll likely get innings beacuse someone has to. |
| $0 | 263 | Yu Darvish | SP | This would be a crappy way for his career to end, but even if he comes back, it likely won’t be pretty. |
A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs, and can be heard on the Keep or Kut Podcast. You can follow him on Bluesky @chadyoung.bsky.social.
Care to elaborate on Peralta now that he’s a Met?
Argh! I went through last night to double check stuff and obviously missed that one. I will update it but the short answer is: I was right, the trade didn’t move the needle much. Park factors went from 106 for HR to 104, but from 98 overall to 97. And the strikeout park factor went down, as well. A little more stability so you could bump him up a spot or maybe two? But definitely not a tier change and think I would still prefer Snell or deGrom.