Chad Young’s 3B Tiered Rankings for 4×4 Ottoneu

This list might have caused me more consternation than any other (important note: I haven’t looked at SP yet and that one is always painful). There are question marks up and down the rankings and the number of players who look like they could be sure-fire, high-quality starters but could also be high-risk busts is really high. Is the position deep? Is it shallow? Is it going to be easy to find a third basemen or will we all be dreading lineup decisions by May?

(If you want, you can skip the intro and my thoughts on the position, and go right to the rankings. As a reminder, my process and a long FAQ on my rankings can be found in my rankings preview.)

A perfect example of this is trade talks I am currently in the midst of in league one. I am sitting on a slew of third baggers that I picked up over the past couple of years because I was, at least at some point, high on all of them. I have a $12 Isaac Paredes, $11 Royce Lewis, $6 Matt Shaw, $4 Connor Norby, and $3 Noelvi Marte.

Paredes has been a personal favorite for years and at $12 is an easy keep. But there are injury questions and positional questions and there are answers to those questions that could tank his value (his hamstring injury is still lingering and he’s in a time-share at the corners and DH with a bunch of other Astros) or that could skyrocket his value (he’s healthy and starting at second base). So what is his trade value?

Lewis looked like a star a couple of years ago, but now is a tougher call at $11. I wrote about this a few weeks back and said I was in wait-and-see mode, but he is now pretty firmly a keeper for me, in part because I think I will end up trading Paredes.

Shaw was an easy keep a week ago, and now might not have a job, making the questions about his batted ball quality more concerning and less likely to be quickly answered. Norby has some upside, but not enough to keep him, I don’t think. And Marte is a keep but I think he’s primarily an outfielder for me, with some utility as a backup at third. Especially if I trade Paredes and Lewis is bad.

How many of those guys could realistically be top five at the position? Paredes for sure. Lewis probably. Shaw and Marte maybe. I don’t see that path for Norby. How many could be cuts by June 1? Norby and Lewis for sure. Shaw and Marte maybe. Paredes probably not.

And when you look at my rankings below, and see those five ranked between eight and 19, that gives you a sense of how many other players could be great or could be cuts. Could Austin Riley fail to bounce back? That probably doesn’t make him a cut, but it would make him a big disappointment and a high cost player who isn’t producing value. Could Wrigley crush Alex Bregman more than I expect? Again, that probably doesn’t make him a cut, but it would hurt a lot. Could Eugenio Suárez have another year where the power just doesn’t play up? I could go on and on.

That makes it very hard to sort guys into tiers, let alone an ordinal rank. My ranks 6-15 cover three tiers and yet if you told me you had those guys in a totally different order, I am not sure I could disagree much.

And that is not the only area I see reasonable debate that is hard to settle. Every projection system I looked at prefers Junior Caminero over José Ramírez. I tend to be a projections-first kind of guy. But I am just not yet ready to displace Ramírez. He has been the (or at least a) top dog for too long and too consistently to not be in that spot now. Not with Caminero having such a limited track record and moving into a new park that isn’t always kind to hitters. That may be unfair to Caminero, and if you want to pay up to take him over Ramírez I can’t say you are wrong.

Very few names – the top three, Matt Chapman, Alec Bohm – feel like they are “safe” in that you can pay for what you expect and feel confident you’ll get it, barring injury. My plan to combat this is to build deep stables at third, ideally including guys like Marte or Addison Barger, who can be deployed in the outfield. That way if I hit the jackpot and have 2-3 3B who pan out, I can take advantage. And if I don’t, at least I have thrown enough spaghetti at the wall to feel confident someone will stick.

4×4 3B Rankings for Ottoneu