Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 30% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Under 30% Owned

German Marquez (Colorado Rockies) – I’m a little surprised to see Marquez still this available. It’s a 30% K rate, near 1.00 WHIP and sub 3.00 ERA over his last eight starts, half of which have come inside Coors. He’s improved his curveball while his slider is still a fantastic offering for any count. Go get him, he could push the needle in the right direction.

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Call-ups, call-ups, and call-ups! It’s an exciting time in the season, when teams with no shot at the playoffs begin giving their prospects an opportunity. Two of these prospects are highlighted today.

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I feel I’m entering uncharted waters as the FAAB results are agreeing and conflicting with the narratives. For the first few weeks, my FAAB predictor was working fine and then right before the trade deadline, most bids were a third of the expected values. While I speculated owners were hoarding FAAB for trade deadline moves, I had no evidence yet for the assumption. I’ll show the assumption might have been right and what to expect to spend this week’s bids.

Overall Trends

When I last ran this report (sorry for missing last week, but I was at the SABER Seminar) on the 34 leagues in the NFBC Main Event, the estimates were far from the results. Two ideas crossed my mind as causes. First, dead owners were no longer spending, or they were saving every dollar for deadline deals, especially those who had the most FAAB. It seems like the FAAB hoarding situation was correct as spending spiked as the highest percentage of remaining FAAB was spent last week.

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Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 30% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Under 30% Owned

German Marquez (Colorado Rockies) – It’s a pretty easy case for Marquez: He’s averaged over eight strikeouts per game across his last five starts – including three games in Coors. He’s improved his curveball, earned a 10%+ swinging strike rate in each game and while he has run into some trouble along the way, it’s a 3.15 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate in his last seven outings. Take a chance.

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The non-waiver trade deadline has passed, which resulted in a flurry of deals that have vaulted many players into new roles. Let’s discuss two beneficiaries.

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Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 30% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Under 30% Owned

Derek Holland (San Francisco Giants) – With Johnny Cueto going down with TJS, Holland looks to have a firm grip on a rotation spot in San Fran and you should capitalize on it. He moved over from the third base side of the rubber to first base in the middle of the June and the results have followed. Across his last 47.2 IP and 9 starts, Holland has boasted a 2.83 ERA, 26% K rate, and digestible 8% walk rate, making him a prime discount option.

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With the non-waiver trade deadline over, it’s time to focus on mixed-league actionable moves. With most of the trades, a player’s value didn’t change enough to make a roster transaction. For example, Chris Archer was owned in all leagues before the trade from the Rays to Pirates and will be owned in all leagues after the trade. Many of the biggest trades are just mixed-league irrelevant. I ranked the players who should be moving on and off rosters in the next few days as the dust settles.

Note: I’m 100% sure I missed something obvious. There was just a ton of moves. I will update this article as I find more players or my obvious errors are pointed out.

Top Gainers (Waiver Wire Targets)

• Jose Leclerc (Rangers): After the trade of Keone Kela to the Pirates and Jake Diekman to the Diamondbacks, the Rangers have a new closer. The 24-year-old righty has been a dominant setup man this year with a 12.7 K/9 and 2.27 ERA and should be a fine closer. There is a chance Alex Claudio gets this role.

• Kirby Yates (Padres): If owners were reluctant to roster own him with the chance he’d also get traded, they can pick him up now.

• Mychal Givens (Orioles): With Brad Brach, Darren O’Day, and Zach Britton traded away, Givens is in line for a handful of Saves.

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The fantasy baseball season is in the final stretch. This section of road is the easiest going. Owners quit since their team is out of contention and/or they want to concentrate on football. With these quitters out of the way, it’s easier going for the active owners. Here’s a short ramble on how the active owner should approach the subject:

The inspiration for this rant came after I saw my FAAB bids in a league this morning. I was down to $12 in FAAB out of $1000 but $0 bids do exist. I noticed one must add (Yangervis Solarte) and bid $10 on him to keep everyone honest. I won to my surprise.

The reason I was taken off guard was that several teams were holding tons of FAAB dollars. Here are the post FAAB totals.

1. $971
2. $880
3. $767
4. $719
5. $328
6. $314
7. $260
8. $202
9. $168
10. $88
11. $85
12. $75
13. $41
14. $1 <– me
15. $0

This league is supposed to be competitive but only six owners made additions (ranks 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 13). Having some teams not bid is understandable. Some weeks I don’t add players as I have too many players coming off the DL. But nine sitting out?

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Last week’s results were the first major failure in my FAAB estimation procedure. The main issue was that the average NFBC bids were about 1/3 of the expected values after being almost dead on for several weeks.

I’m not going to re-create the formulas I use last week because I’m worried owners held tight to their FAAB for the trade deadline. Almost nothing was spent last week except some owners speculating on Garrett Hampson. Spending has been tight for a couple of weeks. Here are the graphs of the totals spent each week and percentage.

I understand the overall values dollar values leveling off but the percentage change should be similar. From week 7 to 16, the values hovered around 8% to 15% of total FAAB left. The last two week have been the lowest since the first few weeks.

Since this is my first year collecting the data, I’m not sure of the effect of the trade deadline in mixed leagues. While it’s not as big of a deal as in Only leagues, roles are lost and gained as players move around.

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