Yesterday, I discussed a bunch of players being picked up by fantasy leaguers across the land in CBS Sports leagues. Although Jeff Zimmerman covered drops yesterday, these were in NFBC leagues, which is no trading, no IL, and usually 15 teams. As such, the formats are quite different than those played on CBS, so we’re going to look at the guys you’re all dropping like hot potatoes. I’m going to ignore injured guys those demoted to the minors and those whose roles were reduced.

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Another week into the season and another week of drops. I’ve categorized all the drops in 10 or more NFBC Main Event Leagues and some other names I find interesting.

Hurt

• Steven Souza Jr. (27)
• Hunter Strickland (21)
• Andrew Heaney (14)
• Mark Trumbo (12): The 33-year-old is out at least two months and his owners are likely dealing with a roster crunch. On one team, I dropped Justin Upton.
• Corey Knebel (11)
• Elias Diaz (11)

Demoted

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What does one post when the sample size is still wayyyyy too tiny to evaluate anything, besides pitch velocity? Opine on what every other fantasy owner is doing, of course! So let’s discuss the most added players in CBS Sports leagues. Are fantasy owners buying the right guy or making a mistake?

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Last season, I started collecting FAAB bids from the NFBC Main Event to help estimate the player costs. It’s time to start the 2019 estimates for week two. The process is far from perfect but it does provide a bidding guideline. I use the NFBC Main Event because it contains 37 15-team leagues but each individual league is going to have its own unique dynamics. Understanding and trackings the differences are key for each owner. Owners need to take these player guesstimates and see how they compare to their own league. It may seem like too much work but can really help to determine how much to spend.

In our book, The Process, Tanner Bell and I broke down the 2018 FAAB bidding in detail going over the various trends. We found that player bids fit into three types:

1. Minimum bids: These are $1/$0 bids for players only the person bidding desires. Owners need to find the corresponding ownership rates and the bids which won these players and stick to it. So many dollars are wasted on early season overbids on players only one person needs to fill in for an injured player.
2. Middle ground: I feel this area is where leagues are won and lost. Owners see players with new skills and/or playing time. The key with these players is to understand they can’t be had for $1 but an owner doesn’t need to drop >10% of their budget on them. It’s more of an art when bidding in this range.
3. Wallet openers: These players are going to go from anywhere between 10% to 50% of a budget. Usually, these players are rookie call-ups or new closers. The key may not be winning the bid as much as setting a limit to not cripple your team in the future.

Here are this week’s estimated FAAB with the ownership percentages from CBSSportsline and bid estimates for the NFBC Main Event ($1000 Budget, low bid of $1). I use CBS’s ownership rates since they divide the ownership by weeks but also allow daily pickups. An early player demand rate can be seen from these daily pickups.

Thoughts:

• My FAAB formula has the minimum bid this week at $25 dollars. I know bids can be lower, but teams historically have spent a few more dollars early to get their guy. Last year, over two-thirds of the week-two bids were over $10. The above players are in demand and will not be won for a minimum this week.
• There could be several wallet openers this week if the players slipped through the cracks and are available (Holland, Peralta, Lauer, Tatis, Beckham, Hernandez). The surprise jump for me is Eric Lauer. While I picked him up in several places as a streaming option, he now has some real trade value with his dominating win.
• In leagues where Tatis is available, I’d not be surprised at all if he goes for 50% of total FAAB. Personally, I’d max out around 20% to 25%.
• I added a few closer options, especially with the Hunter Strickland injury. The one arm I’m a little surprised is so low is Blake Parker. He may be Minnesota’s closer and only has a 14% ownership rate. Last week in Tout Wars, I pegged him as Wallet Opener and spent over $100 in FAAB on him. The next highest bid was $37. I should have used my own work to limit my bid and not waste the $70 in FAAB.
• For reference, here are players picked up the most last season along with the average bids.

Opening Day is around the corner and it’s time to bring back last year’s weekly column as we work to hone our pitching staffs.

Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 30% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Note: This week alone I will be using Yahoo’s Owned % as Fantasy Pros has yet to update their consolidated ownership rates for 2019.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Under 30% Owned

Corbin Burnes (Milwaukee Brewers) – This pick, and many others here, are geared more for 12-teamers where it’s in your best interest to chase pitchers that could break the wall of mediocrity and return high replacement value through the season. Burnes is my favorite of the list as he features the best pitch of the bunch – a slider that returned a 47% O-Swing, 47% zone rate, and near 25% swinging-strike last season out of the pen. He brings an above-average heater as well and there’s room for development as his curveball or changeup shift into a serviceable third option. It may take a little longer than others to return six innings of production consistently, though he shouldn’t do serious harm in the meantime.  Read the rest of this entry »

I’m experimenting with a new article format this year. Instead of concentrating on the most added players, I’m going to concentrate on those poor souls owners are throwing in the towel on. Most of the discarded players will have been demoted to the minor or dinged up. It’s the few who don’t fit into either of these two categories who I will focus on. Sadly, there aren’t many this first week.

To find which players are being dropped, I’m going to use the NFBC Main Event leagues. They are 15-team roto leagues which have some depth and most of the owners will be trying since each posted a $1K+ entry fee. The league will contain active owners making overall trends easier to spot. This week, I have the adds and drops from only 18 leagues since some leagues haven’t drafted yet and included my top-three choices at the end.

Injured List

Jason Kipnis: 7

Kipnis and the scrubs the Indians are using in the infield should be monitored closely. Kipnis should get his job back once healthy and he could be a reasonable buy a week early for a team needing infield help.

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Fantasy waiver wires have been closed for over a month, and real world free agency is about to begin. Major league clubs are “better” than ever at hunting for value. They’ve all developed similar models for evaluating players which has left several notable free agents on the dole in recent seasons. The 2018-2019 winter is scripted to break the trends. Even with Clayton Kershaw already off the market, there’s a healthy supply of star and superstar talent available. But what about ordinary folk? Some of them will be left bat in hand.

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Note: If there ever was an article in flux it’ll be this one. Even though I’m the official author, Paul Sporer will be adding to it. At the time of publishing, the Rockies and Dodgers lineups were not available. Also, I’m off to read as much as I can until the game starts. Check back for updates or re-ranks.

Many fantasy owners expected the 2018 season to be over yesterday but it’s not. Two games are being played to decide the NL West & Central. Non AL-only owners need to quickly decide if today’s games count in their standings, can they change their lineups, and add players.

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It’s been a fun season covering discount starting pitcher options here at Rotographs, and in the final week I’ll be talking exclusively about streams through the rest of the week to consider to stream to pull ahead through the weekend, beginning with Friday, September 27th.

I’ll be keeping them under 30% owned per usual, with all numbers pulled from Fantasy Pros’ consolidated ownage metrics.

Jose Urena vs. New York Mets (Friday) – Urena’s ownership rates have climbed steadily over the past few weeks, and justifiably so as he’s allowed 1 ER or fewer in five of his last six starts, with the sole exception coming against the elite Red Sox lineup. He gets quite the opposite against the Mets this weekend and Urena can take advantage. His two-seamer that consistently bores inside to right-handers means plenty of weak contact, though those looking for strikeouts should look elsewhere – these six starts have tallied just 24 punchouts.

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