First, sorry about no drop list article last week… more on that later. Second, today’s experiment stems from HappyFunBall’s comment from a couple of weeks ago.

I was well into the analysis last week and found I was not answering the right question and had the wrong data. The drop comparisons need to be a little forward-looking, not backward. The data collected from the sites was after the NFBC FAAB ran. The other sites I used allow daily or quick-draw pickups, so some of the news from the Monday was getting baked in. I wanted the rates to be taken from similar timeframes.

My original question focused on which players I should analyze so owners can gain an edge. The edge could be knowing who to drop because they are no longer fantasy-viable. Also, the hope is to find some players whose owners gave up too early on. The hope is that one of the other platforms can provide more insight than the NFBC Main Event.

Several issues exist with this study. First, it’s just one week and a busy week at that with the trade deadline. The increased activity may help to offset the lack of moves since it’s later in the season. I’m not 100% sure but I may run the same analysis again but I need to do it before the head-to-head playoff start and main teams get abandoned.

Finally, the table is a mess. A big one. What Happy Fun Ball and I hoped for didn’t materialize but a few interesting observations can be made.

Read the rest of this entry »

Life has come at me hard the last couple of days and I’m actually happy to spend some time writing about baseball as a distraction. The problem is that I need to prioritize my efforts. I’ve decided to just post the projected values (no analysis) and instead focus on my efforts on my weekly AL Lineups article. If I have the time and effort later today, I may come back and add some more details.

The projection guidelines:

• The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
• The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
• The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
• Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

Read the rest of this entry »

Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 20% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy Pros) with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, ordered by ownage %:

Under 20% Owned

Griffin Canning (Los Angeles Angels, 19%) – Let’s look at the recent performances of Canning. He had a pair of poor performances dealing with the stress of losing his teammate, including a six walk effort that has every indication of an outlier, a strong return-to-form outing against the Mariners, a horrible two-inning relief appearance the night before his scheduled start forced by extra-innings, then six innings of brilliance last time out against the Tigers. Canning is back on track and ready to perform in the final two months, using a pair of breaking balls to earn whiffs (13.6% overall swinging-strike rate!) and elevating properly with heaters to carve up a lineup. Get him before someone else does.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s hard to publish a deep league waiver wire post right before the trade deadline, because so much can change in mere hours. But here we go anyway. The theme here is new opportunities for hitters on bad teams.

Read the rest of this entry »

There is a ton of value changes this week with some players getting hurt (Braves), called up (Will Smith), or playing full-time (Luis Arraez). Just spend a few minutes looking for some adds. Probably more important, look for some players who should be dropped or benched. It’s not a week to half-ass your FAAB.

The projection guidelines:

• The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
• The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
• The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
• Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

Read the rest of this entry »

Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 20% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy Pros) with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, ordered by ownage %:

Under 20% Owned

Anthony DeSclafani (Cincinnati Reds, 17%) – Tony Disco’s season marks of a 4.12 ERA and 1.28 WHIP aren’t winning over many owners, but maybe his current 8-game trend will: 3.07 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 27.5% strikeout rate, and 5% walk rate. He’s had to endure teams like Milwaukee, Houston, and even the Cubs twice during the successful run, displaying his best heaters and sliders of the season. There’s a chance it could come crashing down when he hosts the Rockies this weekend, but his upside could be worth the risk.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to the final edition of the deep league waiver wire before next week’s non-waiver trade deadline!

Read the rest of this entry »

Compared to last week, more transactions occurred in the NFBC’s Main Event on Sunday. I’m seeing a few more borderline starters and hitters being dropped which normally would be kept. I wonder if teams are hoarding potential closers and aren’t able to roster as many replacement level talents.
Read the rest of this entry »

As MLB creeps closer to the trade deadline, a few interesting names have popped up as must adds in ll formats. Most could have been owned for little of nothing last week but now the procrastination tax must be paid.

The projection guidelines:

• The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
• The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
• The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
• Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to the first post-all star break edition of the deep league waiver wire! I hope you’re as enthused as I to follow the remaining two and a half months of baseball…perhaps, with these two hitters added to your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »