Archive for Waiver Wire

We’re down to about the last seven weeks of regular season baseball and entering into a period where managers start to tweak their teams in reaction to categorical standings (thinking rotisserie style, that is). Due to any combination of injury, ineffectiveness, or incompetence, you may be looking for a little lightning in a bottle off the waiver wire to boost a category here or there. What follows are more deeper-league options, but a couple of these guys even might provide value in standard league formats depending on where you need a shot in the arm.

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The Royals took another step forward in “The Process” Friday, promoting 24-year-old second basemen Johnny Giavotella to the big league club. Any move that severally limits the number of at bats of Chris Getz receives is a step in the right direction.

The 2008 draft is beginning to pay early dividends for the Royals. They selected Eric Hosmer third overall and took promising lefty Mike Montgomery 36th. Hosmer is a rookie of the year candidate already while Montgomery had stellar minor league numbers until running into a hiccup in the Pacific Coast League this season. In the second round, with the 49th overall pick, they selected Giavotella. The diminutive second basemen has hit well in every level of the minors, compiling a career line of .305/.375/.437 in 1971 plate appearances. His wOBA over the last two seasons at Double-A and Triple have been .390 and .383 respectively.

While those figures are impressive it’s important to notice that Giavotella played in some very hitter friendly ballparks. His home park at Northwest Arkansas in Double-A was extremely kind to hitters, and while the Triple-A Omaha Royals’ park is extremely neutral it is member of the Pacific Coast League. The average hitter in the PCL this season has a slash line of .287/.360/.453. So…yeah. This is why wRC+ was invented. It tells you how much better or worse a player was than league average, with 100 being the baseline. Giavotella’s wRC+ at AA and AAA were 139 and 116, so he was 39% and 16% better than league average at those levels. Those numbers are still good of course; just not as good as a ~.386 wOBA would have you believe. That’s not taking into account his position, though. An above average second basemen is extremely valuable, both in real life and here in our fantasy world.

Second base has become one of the deeper positions with players like Michael Cuddyer, Michael Young and Ryan Roberts qualifying there. Giavotella is going to get a chance to play every day and show the Royals what he can do leading into 2012. He’s hit well in the five games since his call up and ZiPS gives him a final line of .278/.336/.398 with 2 HR, 4 SB, and 13 RBI in 145 plate appearances. That’s more than you’re likely to get out of Maicer Izturis, Justin Turner, Jemile Weeks and Alexi Casilla to name a few. For now he’s a solid pickup in A.L. only leagues and could prove to be a viable starter in mixed leagues in 2012.

The waiver wire for available players on the DL is getting thin right now. Most teams are shutting down players that could possibly come off the DL for the last couple weeks of the season. Here is a look at a few players owned in less than 50% of all leagues.

Justin Morneau (45.1% ESPN) – Justin is in AAA rehabbing for the next week. After that assignment, he should be getting a call back to the majors. There is no reason not to own him in any league.

Jose Tabata (20.2%) and Alex Presley (4.2%) – Both of these two Pirates look to be coming off the DL in the next week or so. They will replace Xavier Paul in the Pirates outfield, but how they will split up their playing time is still unknown. They will probably be platooned with Presley (LHH) to face RHP and Tabata (RHH) to face LHP. They both look to be a decent source of SB (Tabata 14 SB in 257 AB and Presley with 4 SB in 81 AB). Also, Presley has hit for 0.333 in his few plate appearances this season.

Jed Lowrie (11.9%) – Lowrie joins the Red Sox tonight (Monday). The key to his return is how Marco Scutaro and him will split playing time at SS. Terry Francona has stated that the two will split time depending on match ups. Lowrie has multiple position eligibilities, but it may not matter if he doesn’t get much playing time.

Jordan Schafer (1.0%) – Once he gets off the DL in about a week, he will be the everyday center fielder for the Astros. For an owner in need of steals (15 SB in 196 AB), he is a viable option, especially in deep or NL only leagues.

Stephen Strasburg (12.3 %) – Pick him up now if available. He looks like he is going to pitch a few MLB games. With other pitchers possibly being shut down at the end of season, he could be valuable for an owner in the playoffs or one making a final push up in the standings.

Adam Wainwright (1.7%) – He is not going to pitch this season, but for keeper leagues he should be added for next year. He has several uses during the off season even if an owner doesn’t plan on actually using him for a keeper. He could be added to a trade to sweeten the pot. Also, depending on the league rules, he could be held right until the keepers are selected as insurance in case one of the other keepers gets injured.

Ross Ohlendorf (0.0%) – The waiver wire for starting pitchers returning this season is slim. Ohlendorf is set to pitch later this week for the Pirates. If you are in need of SP, I would pick him up, hold him on the DL for a game or two to see how he performs and then possibly move him to your roster or drop him.

Let’s look at a pair of one-time fantasy stalwarts that have fallen by the wayside in recent years…

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The Toronto Blue Jays promoted third basemen Brett Lawrie from Triple-A Las Vegas yesterday, putting a Larry Walker sized weight on the Canadian born 21 year old’s shoulders. That isn’t to say he’ll be expected to be as good as Walker. He just happens to be the best Candian born player to debut for a Canadian team since Walker with the Expos in 1989.

Not only does Lawrie have the pressure of being the home country kid, he also was the main piece the Blue Jays got in return for trading Shaun Marcum to the Brewers. Marcum was a fan favorite and has continued to put up excellent numbers (3.66 xFIP) for his new team. Lawrie won’t be tarred and feathered if he has a sub-par two months, but he does have lofty expectations bestowed upon him. That being said, what can we expect from him going forward?

Looking at Lawrie’s .353/.415/.661 line at Triple-A without any context makes it seem far more impressive than it is, despite being young for the level. The Jays Triple-A affiliate plays in Las Vegas, one of the best hitters’ parks in the minors. It has a 115 HR park factor for right handed hitters. That’s basically the equivalent of Yankee Stadium to left handed batters. He had a .308 ISO at Vegas, and no matter how good of a hitter’s park Rogers Centre is he won’t come close to that figure. Being that he is just 21 years old I’m not comfortable telling you to take his A (.362 wOBA) and AA (.361) numbers as an indication of his true talent level. That said, he likely falls between those two numbers and his current .459 wOBA. Kids, especially top prospects, can improve greatly in a short period of time.

Lawrie had a preseason ZiPS projection of .254/.309/.400. If his current numbers were factored into that I imagine that triple slash line would improve. Currently the American League average is .256/.322/.401. That should be easily attainable for Lawrie. Third base hasn’t been a very deep position this season so any added production is welcomed. He’s almost certainly an instant upgrade over players like Casey McGehee (all three homer games aside), Danny Valencia or Placido Polanco. Jose Bautista will be shifting back to right field, with Eric Thames moving to left.

The call up of Lawrie means the demotion of Travis Snider. For all his minor league success – he has SMASHED Triple-A pitching – he hasn’t been able to figure it out in the major leagues. He has a career slash line of .248/.307/.423 in 877 plate appearances. His power is vanished, dropping from a .208 ISO in 2010 to just .123 this season. Hopefully, for his sake and Toronto’s, he’s able to figure things out back in Las Vegas.

So you’ve probably heard Brett Lawrie has been called up. Of course, if this is the first you’re getting wind of this, I urge you to click on over to your league site, type in “Lawrie” in the Available Players search and add him, even in mixed leagues. Erik Hahmann will have more Lawrie analysis coming shortly, so don’t forget to check back here.

Also debuting later today? Trayvon Robinson, who was arguably the Dodgers top hitting prospect until he was basically given away to Seattle at the deadline for reasons I’m still trying to figure out. Here’s my take from last month on Robinson, who I think is only actionable in AL-only play. As I mentioned previously, his new power-over-speed approach this year won’t necessarily suit him well at his new team’s digs, which play a lot like his old team’s digs.

Until Lawrie and Robinson get their careers underway, though, you can read about three other guys who could be joining them in the bigs pretty soon.

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With lots of ground to cover in the wake of all the call-ups and promotions following the trade deadline, here’s a rapid-fire version of Mining the Minors.

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Ryan Ludwick was traded from the Padres to the Pirates on Sunday. Once you get past the surprise that the Buccos were buyers, there are another three levels of analysis to go, at least. The prognosis for the player is not incredibly predictable.

The easy answer is that Ludwick will enjoy moving out of PetCo. Since moving to the Padres at last year’s deadline, Ludwick has enjoyed the worst ISO of his career. The drop, about fifty points, could be attributable to the home park. ESPN’s park factors have San Diego as suppressing home runs by 11.5% over the past two years. On first blush, this easy analysis makes sense.

But there are more than a few problems with this idea.

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Now that the trade deadline dust has settled, let’s look at a pair of players with rising fantasy stock following moves that were made (and not made)…

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This week, it’s finally time to get to a pair of guys who were becoming impossible to ignore with their recent play. Even if one of them is forever blocked by the unsurpassable Chris Getz.

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