Archive for Waiver Wire

Lucas Duda (Yahoo: 5 percent owned, ESPN: 5 percent owned)

While the Mets likely weren’t planning on having Duda at first for a large portion of their season, that’s the way things have shaken out in Queens. He struggled to make a mark with the inconsistent playing time he got in the early part of the season, but since the Mets have committed to him being in the lineup nearly everyday on July 28, he has rewarded them with a solid line of .288/.364/.500. While that’s a serviceable line, Duda wasn’t providing the power typically associated with first basemen…until August rolled around.

Duda has hit three of his five home runs since August 1, including jacks on back-to-back days, the last of which was a sizable smash in San Diego. It’s this new power that has made him a person of interest, as without it, he’s a decidedly less interesting option. The power first showed up last season, when Duda hit 40 doubles and 23 home runs between Double- and Triple-A, so this year’s outbreak isn’t unprecedented, in fact, Duda hit five home runs in the last 10 games before his call up after having hit only five total in April and May.

It isn’t as though Duda raked all through the minors and is just now getting a chance to do it in the pros. He had shown good doubles power, but the home runs are a relatively new addition, which makes it somewhat harder to predict whether they’re going to persist. His hot month overstates his ability, but 15-20 given a full season of consistent playing time doesn’t seem outlandish. Anything more than about 3 HR a month is a bonus.

His low ownership makes him a possibility in almost any league and while I’d certainly rather have him over someone like Brett Wallace or Adam Kennedy (both owned at the same 5 percent rate as Duda on Yahoo), I’d rather pick up Mike Carp if he’s still available.

Josh Willingham (Yahoo: 34 percent owned, ESPN: 74 percent owned)

Most of the guys investigated in this space are having a strong month so far, but Willingham is something of an exception. He’s playing well enough lately to merit attention, but on the heels of a July where he hit .324/.429/.618, a line of .233/.299/.550 in August seems to pale by comparison. Nevertheless, Willingham is continuing to show good power in the middle of the Athletics’ order, having recorded 9 XBH in 15 games this month.

While his power is certainly playable, that .233 batting average is less inspiring. It isn’t quite Mark Reynolds-esque (Reynolds is 11-for-59 this month, but seven of his 11 hits have gone for extra bases, including 4 HR) but it’s ungood enough to worry about. His monthly BABIP is .273, a 50 point drop from his stellar July, due largely to a bloated IFFB% of 27 percent, something that should fall more in line with his career rate of 12 percent sooner rather than later.

That high pop-up rate, as well as a season high strike out rate, and season low walk rate makes it seem as though Willingham is just being a bit too aggressive at the plate. He doesn’t need to overhaul his game, just to be a bit more patient at the plate, and his batting average should rise out of worrisome territory. If you’re in a league that penalizes for strikeouts, however, Willingham may not be the best player to target. This month, he has as many three strikeout games as he does games in which he drew a walk, and that’s a fairly substantial price to pay for the level of production Willingham is likely to give you the rest of the way.

The return of a preseason fantasy darling leads off this week’s pitcher-heavy column.

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We’re getting down to that time of year where, unless you’re talking keeper league, it’s all about picking up the guy swinging the hot bat with a relative disregard for the long term.  If he keeps it up for a couple of weeks, then great, but no more worrying about small sample sizes or potential in the second half.  This is it.  So if you’re looking for some quick-fix help in your outfield, these guys just might fit the bill… Read the rest of this entry »

If you are still in the hunt for the cash, congratulations. If not, treat these waiver wire considerations as auditioners (not a word, but it should be) for your 2012 fantasy team. Unfortunately, these two hitters play on crappy teams, but hey, we cannot be picky with our pick ups at this point.

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First things first: While he isn’t really a fantasy-relevant player anymore, congratulations to Jim Thome for hitting his 600th home run. PEDs get too much credit for their role in the power explosion of the “steroid era,” but to accomplish such a tremendous feat without even a hint of controversy is a testament to Thome’s longevity and raw power.

Onward to the Wire!

Delmon Young (Yahoo: 42 percent owned, ESPN: 37 percent owned)

Before Thome’s pair of bombs stole the spotlight, the story out of Detroit was Young hitting a home run in his first PA as a Tiger off of former teammate Francisco Liriano. Young’s movement out of pitcher-friendly Target Field would seem to work in his — and by extension his owners’ — favor. However, as a visitor, Young hit a rather pedestrian .272/.329/.360 at Comerica Park with just 2 HR in 140 PAs, so it isn’t as though he’s about to be playing a lot more games at a personal launching pad. If Young gains any scheduling advantage, it’s minimal and comes from the fact that he’ll face Twins pitching instead of Tiger pitching, but the two teams have fairly similar opponents remaining.

So Young isn’t adding much value in his move, but does he have enough intrinsic value to pick up anyway? Young’s last two weeks might give you that feeling. In addition to hitting three of his five home runs since August 1, Young has posted a solid line of .303/.410/.576 and in the month since he came off the disabled list, he has hit .294/.363/.461. While success in July is par for the course for Young, his effectiveness so far in August is somewhat counter to his career norms. For his career, Young’s OPS falls from .899 in July to .733 in August, so if it feels like Young is walking on air ala Wile E. Coyote with his recent performance, you’re not far off.

If you’re looking to replace someone like Logan Morrison in mixed, Young isn’t a bad play, but don’t make the mistake the Twins made and expect the world from him. He’s not going to kill your average and has a little power upside, but that’s about it. If you need consistent power, look elsewhere.

Mike Carp (Yahoo: 21 percent owned, ESPN: 62 percent owned)

In his 106 PAs prior to this season, Carp had hit one home run in the majors. Since August 1, he has hit four as part of a month-long hitting streak that has given him a line of .389/.421/.685 for the month and has raised his season OPS from .792 to .920. Carp hit 21 HR in 66 games for the Triple-A Tacoma this season after hitting 29 at the same level last year, so the power isn’t a mirage, though I somewhat doubt he’ll continue at quite this pace.

It isn’t just the power that’s making Carp a compelling option, as he has just two games without a hit since the All-Star break. He’s contributing solidly in three categories and even adding a few runs.

Even if Carp cools off a bit — a development that shouldn’t come as a surprise when it comes; his second-half BABIP is .435 — his move from the bottom of the order to the clean-up spot should help him continue to get RBI chances, something he didn’t see much of in June or early July. He’s definitely playable in AL-Only and deep mixed, but because he lacks a major league track record, it would be wise to keep a close eye on him if you choose to roster him. His regression could come swiftly and with little warning, but for now, it’s worth riding the hot hand.

Yesterday the Tigers traded for light hitting outfielder in Delmon Young. That would seem fitting, considering they seemed to be full of them already. I’m going to focus on the one that will likely have the most fantasy impact going forward.

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Prior to the All-Star break, four RotoGraphs writers — Eno Sarris, Jeff Zimmerman, Howard Bender and me — engaged in the just-for-fun activity of drafting Pick Six-style teams, with the pool of players limited to those available in 10% or less in ESPN leagues (at the time of the draft). Given those parameters, the exercise proved to be challenging, but if you paid attention to our picks, you may have managed to snag a useful fantasy player or three off the waiver wire — no matter what kind of league you play in. Let’s update the scoring and hit on each owner’s best and worst selections. In other words, it’s time to see who’s in line for some bragging rights.

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Let me preface this by saying that Yuniesky Betancourt is not a good player. He’s been worth 2.8 WAR in 3475 plate appearances. That’s horrendous. In purely fantasy terms he’s never been particularly good either. He doesn’t hit for power, or run, or hit for a high average, or get on base. But, because he can play shortstop, not very well mind you, teams have given him over 500 plate appearances a season five years running.

He began this season just like any other, i.e. badly. In May he hit .176/.200/.289. Things started to come around in June as his OPS for the month ended at .690. Then it was summer time and Yuni was livin’ easy. He had a great July, for him, hitting .299 with a .752 OPS and 13 runs and 13 RBI. He’s carried that over into July as well as his .953 OPS would attest. To make it simple, over the last 30 days he’s hit .380 with 3 HR, 20 RBI and even 2 SB. Only four other shortstops have been better than Yuni over that time: Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins, Asdrubal Cabrera and J.J. Hardy. Those four are owned in over 70 percent of leagues while our man Yuni sits at just 28 percent. He’s hit so well that even noted fantasy writer Jason Collette traded Jason Motte for him a few weeks ago.

We all know that the shortstop position is as shallow as a kiddie pool. Any unexpected production is welcomed with open arms. He’s not likely to keep this up until the rest of the season, but if you have a void at shortstop, or own a slumping player like Elvis Andrus or Alexei Ramirez, it’s worth overlooking the name and trying to cash in on the hot streak while you can. Another player in a similar situation to Yuni’s is Cliff Pennington. He’s owned in just seven percent of leagues but has hit .342/2HR/13RBI/2SB over the past month. Unlike Betancourt he’s been a good hitter relative to his position in his short career, so it may be more than a fluke.

Betancourt may not get many more hot streaks like this. Do him a favor and pick him up. He’s been a punching bag for so long that I’m sure he’d appreciate seeing his ownership percentage tick up over the 30% barrier.

Rick Ankiel (Yahoo: 6 percent owned, ESPN: 15 percent owned)

After an extremely pedestrian first half, Ankiel seems to have found his groove at the top of the Nationals’ batting order. He has hit .290/.342/.536 since the All-Star break, but has really turned it on after the trade deadline, hitting .308/.357/.692 with 4 HR since August 1. Of the 18 games left this month, the Nationals play 10 at home — where Ankiel has hit six of his seven home runs — plus another six in hitter-friendly Cincinnati and Philadelphia, giving him a good chance to continue his torrid month.

If you can spare the extra bench spot, Ankiel has large enough platoon split to be worth acting on. His OPS drops nearly .200 points against lefties, which makes him look far less interesting than he is against righties. If you can’t platoon him, he’s still worth a grab, especially in NL-Only, but temper your expectations when he faces Cole Hamels.

Edwin Encarnacion (Yahoo: 29 percent owned, ESPN: 78 percent owned)

Right from the outset, if you play in a league that counts defense, Encarnacion might not be your best pick-up. E-5 isn’t his nickname for no reason. Encarnacion owns one of the AL’s five highest OPS marks in the second half thanks to a line of .361/.475/.627 line, but he managed to find even a higher gear over the last 10 days, hitting .423/.559/.654 in August. The one knock on his month so far is that he has just one RBI and that came on his only home run so far. However, it’s almost unthinkable that he wouldn’t start driving in his teammates if he stays this hot for a while longer.

Encarnacion’s BABIP this month is .435, so he’s definitely finding the holes in the defense, but his yearly mark is an entirely unremarkable .307. So, while I think some regression is likely, it isn’t the sword of Damocles hanging over his head. Toronto plays a fairly favorable schedule the rest of the month, but they get the Red Sox and Yankees for 11 games in September, so, unless the divisional and wild card races are already sewn up early, Encarnacion could face a tough slate of pitching. Having an alternative in mind if he starts to struggle is wise.

Jason Kubel (Yahoo: 51 percent owned, ESPN: 93 percent owned)

On production alone, I like Kubel a lot. In the 18 games since he returned from the DL, Kubel has hit .319/.382/.565 with 4 HR and 13 RBI, which is more than respectable from a player with his paltry ownership. He’s been one of the Twins’ most consistent hitters over the last nine games, hitting .387/.406/.774 since August began — in fact, his 774 SLG would be the team’s fifth highest OPS this month.

While I think his consistent contributions keep him in the lineup, with Justin Morneau rejoining the team on Friday, the Twins are simply overfilled at three of the four corner positions and Kubel’s not exactly an option at third base. Jim Thome is rightly going to get plenty of playing time in his quest for his 600th home run, keeping Kubel from being the full-time DH, and Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer, Ben Revere, and Kubel are all competing for time in the outfield corners — especially since Alexi Casilla’s return means that they won’t simply stash Cuddyer at 2B to alleviate some of the pressure.

For the team, it’s a nice problem to have, but it’s really just a mess for owners. I think his production is going to be good enough going forward to be worth the possibility that he may not play every day, but do keep a close eye on the lineup, especially until Thome hits his 600th.

At this point in the season, with just about seven weeks remaining, the chance that a newcomer to your roster will make a significant fantasy impact isn’t great, whether we’re talking about a recently-recalled minor leaguer getting another another shot in the bigs or one of the few elite prospects who has yet to get the call. But that doesn’t mean these players are entirely incapable of making useful fantasy contributions either.

Now that we’re down to the final push — when the fantasy playoffs are in sight, money is on the line and bragging rights are up for grabs — it’s the savvy owner who follows every turn of the the never-ceasing transaction wheel. Because continuing to play that slumping stud regularly (any day now, Carlos Beltran) or rostering that one-time starter who just lost his job (step aside, Travis Snider) or waiting for that injured star to return (hurry back, Rickie Weeks) or sitting on that pitcher who was traded to a tougher environment (hey, Jason Marquis is actually owned in some leagues) isn’t exactly doing much to help your cause now, is it? But maybe — just maybe — one of these guys can.

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