Last week, we received our first set of 2013 projections, and Jeff Zimmerman presented 5×5 rankings based on three cuts of that data.
By now, many of you have probably noticed a pattern forming this off-season – 5×5 rankings come out, and Chad follows with the ottoneu edition. Sure enough, here three cuts of linear weights points rankings of the top 20 hitters for 2013, based on the Bill James Handbook Projections.
Thanks to two excellent researchers, we have two different pitcher xBABIPs nestled within the posts on this site.
Matt Swartz has an xBABIP that’s part of SIERA. He was nice enough to re-run it with all pitchers with 40 innings pitched or more for 2003-12. He did not adjust for usage by weighting pitchers with high IP more heavily, but he did regress BABIP using factors that his research has shown to influence the number. His pitcher xBABIP formula is:
BABIP = .290 + .045*GB% – .103*K%.
Steve Staude used batted ball data to find a pitcher xBABIP in the Community Blog a while back. Of course, the weakness of a model using line drive percentage is the fickleness of that stat from stadium to stadium and year to year, but it does make a lot of sense intuitively: give up fewer frozen ropes and you’ll give up fewer hits. His regression led him to the following pitcher xBABIP formula:
xBABIP = 0.4*LD% – 0.6*FB%*IFFB% + 0.235
Since it’s a holiday week we’re taking a break from the positional rankings we’ve been rolling out. In the Thanksgiving spirit I thought I’d list a few things I was thankful for this past fantasy baseball season.
Adam LaRoche’s health:
After surgery for a torn labrum and partially torn rotator cuff ended his 2011 season early– he played just 43 games – LaRoche was a risk come draft day. When healthy he has 25-30 home run power, and boy was he healthy in 2012. He bounced back beautifully, playing in 154 games and launching 33 homers and knocking in 100 runs. Those who took the chance of drafting him reaped the rewards of one of the biggest bargains of the season. I had the pleasure of grabbing him for $5 in my Ottoneu league.
A few weeks back, the RotoGraphs staff covered the RotoGraphs Fantasy Awards, our look back at 2012 and a chance to recognize the guys who made or broke your fantasy season by being really good (or really bad) or by being really good and then being really bad (or being really bad and then being really good). When we voted, I think everyone looked at 2012 in a vacuum, focusing on price and production, but I would also guess that almost all the voters were in the mindset of a traditional 5×5 league when they voted.
Well, I wouldn’t be the ottoneu guy if I did that! Instead, I based my votes on the unique world that is the ottoneu FanGraphs Points format and, as a result, often found myself voting against the grain.
The Marlins decision to overturn the majority of their roster on this week created ample opportunity for their minor leaguers to help your fantasy team earlier than expected.
In the outfield Giancarlo Stanton is the sole survivor of the team’s firesale leaving gapping holes center and left field. Top hitting prospect Christian Yelich will start the year at Double-A Jacksonville and his progression to be the Marlin’s everyday leftfielder will face little resistance. One can expect Yelich to post a high batting average, more than a dozen steals and moderate power. He’s an excellent player that fantasy owners in nontraditional leagues will love. I’m very high on Yelich and if it weren’t for the homerun suppression in Miami I would predict him to be a 25 homerun guy down the road. His swing is that pretty.
The best prospect the team received from Toronto was Jake Marisnick. Marisnick profiles best in a corner but their players’ lack of defensive ability has rarely stopped the Marlins from getting their bats in the lineup (See, Morrison and Coghlan). Marisnick struggled mightily in 247 Double-AA plate appearances so I expect him to return to Double-AA as Jacksonville’s centerfielder. However, he did play well in the Arizona Fall League so while its unlikely it wouldn’t be out of the question for Marisnick to breaks camp with the Fins. Ultimately, I question how good he will be. He’ll be playing outside his optimal position in a park the suppresses power. In addition to his general athleticism, power is his best attribute but his hit tool is lacking, leaving me questioning his ability to tap into his power.
The final outfielder stationed in Jacksonville will be Marcell Ozuna. I haven’t seen Ozuna play so it’s hard to comment on him other than saying his power could be very enticing to the punchless Marlins.
The Marlins could go in many different directions for their new infield but I expect Yunel Esobar to play shortstop and the recently signed Kevin Kouzmanoff to play third. Kouzmanoff, 30, is hardly special so he’ll face pressure from former first rounder Zack Cox. Cox was a standout at the University of Arkansas but I’ve long been on record as one who doubts his ability. Still, he has far more upside than Kouzmanoff if he can put things together.
This trade left the quality of the Marlins’ rotation in shambles. Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle were swapped out for Henderson Alvarez, leaving the rotation will little depth and experience. Top prospect Jose Fernandez wasn’t challenged during his short Jupiter stint so he too should be in Jacksonville. The Fish will cap his innings somewhere below the 165 mark but he could provide a very boost to your August and September statistics should be as impressive as many predict him to be.
Watching Justin Nicolino this year I saw a deceptive lefty with good control but not an impact fantasy asset. His upside is a number three starter but I project a back of the rotation innings eater. Helpful for the Marlins, not so much for you.
There are many other prospects who were affected by this deal too but there isn’t enough space to discuss them all. With so much youth and uncertainty on this roster fantasy owners should keep a close eye on the Marlins and similar teams.
Torii Hunter is now back in the AL Central after spending the last 5 seasons with the Angels. The 38-year-old will provide needed support to a punch-less Tigers’lineup with the exceptions of Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera. Mid-2012 season swing adjustments elevates his value higher than his projections.
In a testament to the weakness of the position, Jordan Pacheco spent 505 plate appearances being seven percent worse than league average with his stick, and yet he ended the season as the eleventh-best catcher, worth five dollars in 5×5 mixed leagues when all was said and done. It’s a head-scratcher, at least going forward.
Catcher is a bit of an odd position in fantasy. Very few players accrue enough PA to be full-time starters – only three cracked 600 and only eight more broke 500, meaning that in a 12 team league, every team needs a legit backup and at least one team is going to run a full-fledged platoon.
So with a 350 PA cut-off on Zach Sanders’s end of season rankings, it should come as no surprise that six of the top 30 ottoneu catchers didn’t even crack the 5×5 rankings. It makes it a bit more difficult to identify ottoneu’s feelings on players, as some guys “fall” in the rankings only because a player who did not qualify in 5×5 made some noise in linear weights. But we can identify some studs and some duds.
A.J. Ellis turned 31 last season. That might surprise you, since he had only 244 career plate appearances before this season. He’s so long been the focus of stat-heads for his walk rate that he might have debuted right at his power peak. That allowed him to show the best power of his career and “leap” up to fantasy replacement level status as the 17th-best backstop in roto last season.
But without that power, he ends up a lot like Ruben Tejada among shortstops — devoid of the skills that make a player valuable in most fantasy baseball leagues. No power, no speed, and only a walk rate… that doesn’t play in your average 5×5 fantasy league.
In real life, Ruben Tejada had a decent season, especially at his cost. For a half mill, the Mets got a player that put up average defense at a premium position. He added a stick that was only eight percent worse than league average, and actually above-average for his position (86 wRC+). All of that together added up to a league-average player getting paid just about the league minimum.
Fantasy baseball doesn’t care. Linear weights, 4×4, 5×5 — there’s virtually no format in which Tejada’s offensive contributions last year were above replacement in a mixed league. Even in deeper leagues, his skills just don’t translate. In 5×5 roto leagues, he was the 27th-best shortstop and worth negative four dollars this year.
