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RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft: Rounds 1-5

You’re drafting if you’re a hardcore head like me. I’m finishing up my third mock draft and have two more scheduled in the next two weeks. So we’re drafting.

RotoGraphs thought there wasn’t any time like the present, so we got going on our mock draft. Over the next few weeks, we’ll be referencing this mock — done for a standard twelve-team 5×5 roto league with one catcher — as well as some other industry mocks around the web, as we try to find early risers, fallers and sleepers. You can find these things later by using the “Mock Draft Analysis” category tag on the bottom right.

Because not everyone drafts on March 28th.

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Don’t Forget Ryan Kalish

The Red Sox signed Jonny Gomes, and — completely ignoring his lack of an ‘h’ and inability to hit right-handed pitchers — declared him the starter in left field for 2013. Sort of. There’s a left-handed young man in left field that might have something to say about that. His name is Ryan Kalish.

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The Pirates Need a New Closer

Joel Hanrahan is headed out of town, and since it’s Boston as the destination, he’s likely to remain the closer. Andrew Bailey’s loss must be someone’s gain, however — there’s a vacuum behind The Hammer in Pittsburgh. Who will fill it?

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Jake Peavy Loves His Defense

Drafting Jake Peavy last year was basically an after thought. Not much demand existed for a 31-year-old pitcher coming off a season with a near 5.00 ERA and shoulder issues. He was able to come back with a force and ended up as the season’s 17th highest rated starting pitcher with the same auction value of CC Sabathia, James Shields and Stephen Strasburg. I expect somewhat similar results in 2013 as he had in 2012 because of continued health and improved defense around him.

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Wade Davis, Starting Pitcher

In some leagues, reliever-eligible starters are useful for their ability to rack up starters for a team punting saves. But usually it’s the starter-eligible relievers that can keep ratios down out of the starter spot. Some times, the move back to starting from relieving can work out for the pitcher in question. But usually they are just about as good as they were when they started before. Wade Davis will attempt to buck these trends and be useful next year.

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Players ottoneu Loved (and Hated): SP Edition

After weeks of reviewing hitters, position by position by position, it is time for me to offer up my response to Zach Sanders’s rankings of starting pitchers.

As with Zach’s rankings, we are limiting ourselves to pitchers with more than 140 IP this year, giving us a list of 101 starting pitchers, including a few whose values varied greatly between 5×5 and linear weights points leagues. One slight change from hitters to pitchers – because an IP is so valuable in linear weights (almost every team should be using up all 1500 IP over the season in an ottoneu league), we are going to rank pitchers based on Points/IP, not based on total points.

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James Shields In a New Ballpark (And Division)

The short version of the old book on James Shields that he was a flyball and strikeout guy with a home run problem. That version of James Shields might care about leaving a home park that suppresses home runs. Except that version of James Shields doesn’t exist any more and his new home park is even friendlier.

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Yoenis Cepedes Finds Patience and Fly Balls

Not much was expected from Yoenis Cespedes last year. In most peoples’ eyes, he would start in AAA, get called up and struggle in the majors. He obviously didn’t struggle too much and came in 23rd in Zach Sanders’ Outfield End of Season Rankings. He was within $2 of being the 15th overall OF. For the 2013 season, I see his projected output mixed.

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Is Curtis Granderson Slipping?

Much was expected from Curtis Granderson last year. After re-tooling his swing in 2011, Granderson turned in an MVP-caliber season. The biggest addition to Granderson’s game was his sudden power against lefties, which had plagued him up until that point in his career. While he managed to retain those gains, and actually hit more home runs in 2012, his slash line fell to .232/.319/.492. Granderson will turn 32 next March, which is an age where many players start seeing decline. Can Granderson stave off the inevitable just a bit longer?

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Andrew McCutchen And Barry Bonds

Andrew McCutchen is a toolsy Pittsburgh outfielder with a good eye at the plate that just put it all together and showed career bests in most categories in his age-26 season. He did it with a fraction of the flair of the last version of this Pirates phenomenon — unassuming dreadlocks replacing a the more ego-focused flash of the earring — but the timing and location of his breakout still lead to an easy comparison.

Yes, putting McCutchen up against Barry Bonds may dull his shine. As is usually the case with a player coming off a career season, a little scuffing up may do him some good.

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