What I’m positing is: Don’t draft Denard Span at 2014 prices in 2015. I’m sure there are some daily matchups where he makes sense. And he’s a decent real-life player. But I’m not going to belly up to this bar. Not after he played to a top-20 outfielder season.
This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.
In a Nutshell: The Mets have a lot of promising young players, which is good news for a team with question marks at third base, second base, shortstop and in the outfield. Sophomore catcher Travis d’Arnaud is also no sure thing given his always-present health issues.
1. Noah Syndergaard, RHP: The Mets began to reap the benefits of the 2012 R.A. Dickey deal in 2014 with the emergence of catcher Travis d’Arnaud but the ’15 season should bring another talented prospect to The Show. The hard-throwing Syndergaard stubbed his toe a little bit in Triple-A in ’14 but he still had an encouraging season for a 22-year-old starter in Triple-A. He has the stuff and the build to be a top-shelf starter for years to come.
At a glance the 2014 season for Rajai Davis is mostly interchangeable with many of his previous years. He ranked as the 32nd best outfielder in Zach Sanders’ End of Season rankings, a nice surprise for his owners given his preseason rating of 81st. Davis stole a good number of bases, 36 on 47 attempts a 76.5% success rate, and posted a .320 on-base percentage, similar to his .317 career OBP. One outlier was his .282 batting average — Davis’ best since 2010 and what really drove up his value — this past season against his .270 lifetime average. While 12 points of batting average isn’t astronomical by any means, when placed against his recent seasons rather than career, .282 represents a massive jump.
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He got paid. Now it’s time to figure out how much fantasy owners should pay for Giancarlo Stantons’ services in 2015. The third-best outfielder and sixth-best overall player last season has even been mentioned as a threat to the number one pick that would otherwise be owned by Mike Trout. Expectations are high.
• MLB and USA Baseball finally came out with their PitchSmart program for high school age and younger kids to help prevent future pitcher injuries especially Tommy John surgery.
Through decades of research, experts have gained insight into the behaviors that put amateurs at an increased risk of injury. In the most recent nationwide study of youth pitchers, research found that youth pitchers were still exhibiting many of these risky behaviors, all of which were associated with increased likelihood of pitching with arm tiredness and arm pain.
When a 27-year-old doubles his previous best in homers, seasoned stats lovers everywhere give him the virtual pat on the head. That’s nice, thanks for 2014, but we’re not moving your needle too much in 2015. You won’t be projected to be top ten in the outfield despite coming in second in the end-of year rankings this past season.
But look over Michael Brantley’s particular history — the slowly growing homer totals, and the athleticism he always brought to the table — and it’s tempting to fall in love. What might his regression actually look like, and if it’s a little better than his projections, could he make a sharp pickup in a league full of sharps, all busy patting him on the head?
In yesterday’s comments about Wilmer Flores, a reader referenced K/HR leagues. I must admit, I have never heard of K/HR as a fantasy stat. I don’t feel bad, a couple pointed google searches turned up precisely nothing on the topic. With K/HR in mind, let’s turn our attention to some quirky leagues. As always, we have the comments for further discussion.
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My concept of Jhonny Peralta was born after his first few seasons, in 2005: “meh.” Since then, the league has changed. Which means it’s time to re-evaluate players that have stayed the same since then. Like Jhonny Peralta.
Going into the season, we ranked Elvis Andrus seventh and Alcides Escobar 19th. At the end of the season, Andrus was 12th and Escobar was sixth. And yet, they’re still the same person. That’s the perils of depending on the ball in play for your value.
Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 20__.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the 2014 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2015 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.
Previous Pieces:
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Yankees and Orioles
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rays
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Indians and Tigers
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: White Sox, Royals, Twins
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Angels and A’s
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Astros, Angels, Mariners
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Braves and Phillies
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Marlins, Mets, Nationals
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Reds and Cubs
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Cardinals, Pirates, Brewers
A Minor Review of 2014: Rockies
The Graduate: Tyler Matzek, LHP: The 11th pick in the 2009 draft, Matzek’s ascent through the minors was hindered by poor command and control. Both began to improve in 2013 before taking a big step forward at the big league level in 2014. The young hurler has a four-pitch mix with his slider grading on his best pitch. Improved fastball command could turn Matzek into a real stud.
