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While Scott Boras is negotiating on behalf of his newest client, Stephen Strasburg, the name Luke Hochevar probably won’t come up to often. So far, with a career 5.09 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, Hochevar is far from a model former first draft pick. His struggles are instead a warning sign for the Nationals and other teams being bullied into a big bonus.

So far, the Royal has seemingly lacked an out pitch despite all of his quality offerings. He has five pitches that he throws with regularity, and four that he throws more than 10% of the time. A 92 MPH fastball, an 83 MPH slider, a 77 MPH curveball, an 84 MPH changeup, and a 91 MPH two-seam fastball. And unless pitch f/x is mislabeling some pitches, he’s even added a sixth pitch, an 88 MPH cutter. With this kitchen sink approach, he’s been able to elicit a good amount of ground balls (51.8% career), but has not found the combination to punch them out (5.30 career K/9).

That was, until two starts ago. In the last two starts, Hochevar has silenced two potent offenses. And he’s done so with the strikeout. In his last 13.1 innings, amassed against Texas on July 25th and Tampa Bay on July 19, Hochevar has put up 22 strikeouts against zero walks. Extend the window to include his July 9th start against Boston, and he has 27 strikeouts and 1 walk in 19.1 innings.

Yes, the sample size is small. But is it possible that Hochevar has made some changes that will finally allow him to harness his entire arsenal and add the strikeout to his ground-ball inducing approach? There are notable differences in his approach over his last three starts.

One thing that is immediately obvious is that he’s going to the curveball more this year, and more in his recent starts. Overall, his curveball percentage is up to 13.6% from 9.1% last year, but if you look at the last three games, the effect is more pronounced. Against Boston and Texas, Hochevar went to his big curve ball over 20% of the time, almost double his usage of the pitch from last year.

Seen as his perhaps best pitch going in to the draft, the curveball has been inconsistent for him. He’s lost almost a full three inches of horizontal movement on it this year, but the movement has come and gone from start to start. The linear weights show the curveball being a negative for him this year, and on the other hand you can’t argue with his recent results. Against Boston, the curveball showed its best horizontal movement of the year, pushing the seven- and eight-inch horizontal movement that he showed in his first two seasons. If the curveball was merely dormant at the beginning of the year, kudos to the pitcher for persevering and throwing the pitch enough to recover the movement and craft himself a plus pitch.

Overall, his only positive pitch has been his slider, worth about 3.1 runs so far this year, and 13 in his short career so far. In his remarkable 13-strikeout, zero-walk performance against Texas this weekend, Hochevar used the slider almost 32% of the time. This brought his yearly percentage to 24.9%, easily a career high for Hochevar.

Looking at his usage chart for his career, one thing is clear. Hochevar is using his off-speed offerings much more often this year. With a fastball that hovers around neutral, this looks like a natural and beneficial progression for the young pitcher. Perhaps this is meaningful change that will allow the Royals to once again regain a rosy disposition to their high draft pick. Fantasy owners, at the very least, should take notice.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Robert Manuel, Marc Rzepczynski, Aaron Poreda, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, and Mat Latos.

Drew Stubbs: The Reds’ outfield is not instilling much fear in opponents as of late. Willy Taveras and Laynce Nix each have OBPs below .300. With Jay Bruce’s 18 homers on the DL, Nix leads the outfielders with eight dingers on the year. Thankfully, the organization keeps churning out outfield prospects. Stubbs is absolutely dripping with potential, athleticism and tools. Although he’ll likely always struggle to hit for a high average due to his contact issues (25.4 K%), the left-handed hitter could still manage to bat .250-.270. He has just two homers on the year, but Stubbs has the potential to hit 10-15 with his fair share of walks in the Majors when he matures as a hitter. Currently, he has 36 steals in 42 attempts and plays a plus centerfield.

Matt LaPorta: Chris Gimenez‘ versatility (He can catch) gives him a defensive edge over LaPorta, who is the much better offensive player and is currently wasting his time at triple-A. With 1B/DH Ryan Garko entering his expensive years in arbitration, he’ll likely be gone sooner rather than later, so Cleveland should just ship him out now to make room for LaPorta, who is a better hitter and comes much cheaper. LaPorta struggled in an early call-up to the club, but he received just 42 at-bats. For a club that’s going nowhere, it makes sense to give a 24-year-old – with the potential to hit 30 homers – a chance to play. He’s currently hitting .314/.390/537 with 11 homers in 255 triple-A at-bats.

Brandon Allen: Speaking of teams going nowhere, Arizona is in a similar situation, which is one of the reasons why the club jettisoned veteran pinch hitter and first baseman Tony Clark at the All-Star break. The club currently has Chad Tracy playing first base, but his offense is below-average for his position and he cannot stay healthy. Back-up first baseman Josh Whitesell is a career minor-leaguer who has constantly been overlooked, despite solid numbers. Whitesell will have to take advantage of his narrow window of opportunity, because Allen is waiting in the wings. Acquired earlier this season from the White Sox for reliever Tony Pena, Allen is a big-bodied slugger who has developed quickly over the past two seasons after originally being drafted out of high school in 2004. Last season, he hit 29 homers between high-A and double-A. This season, he’s got just 13 between double-A and triple-A, but he’s showing signs of becoming a better hitter due to a higher average (that’s not dependent on a high BABIP) and lower strikeout rates compared to his career norm. Since the trade to Arizona, he’s been on fire with a .364 average and five homers in 10 games.

Danny Valencia: To say Minnesota could use some stability at third base would be an understatement and Valencia just keeps getting better and better. With Joe Crede struggling with the bat as well as his health, and the likes of Nick Punto and Matt Tolbert offering little in the way of offense, the club needs to consider promoting Valencia as the team fights for a playoff spot. The 24-year-old third base prospect began the year in double-A before a promotion to triple-A where he’s currently hitting .362/.371/.616 with five homers in 24 games. Although his patience at the plate comes and goes (and when has Minnesota ever cared about OBP?), he won’t hurt the club in the strikeout category, he has average power, and he has the ability to hit .280-.290. Defensively, he’s solid with a plus arm.

Madison Bumgarner: Like quite a few other teams around Major League Baseball, the Giants club is fighting for a playoff spot and it appears that its best hope is the wild card. So the big question must be posed: Does it make sense to promote a 19-year-old pitching prospect if he’s dominating the competition in the minors and looks like a better option than one or two of the pitchers on your big-league rotation? It’s probably better to air on the side of caution, but this is the playoffs that we’re talking about… and Bumgarner currently has a career ERA of 1.50 in two minor league seasons. He’s also collectively allowed 176 hits in 228.1 innings with just 45 walks and 235 punch-outs. The left-handed pitcher is a rare find.

Bud Norris: The Astros club is also (surprisingly) in the playoff hunt but you have to be worried about how long the trio of Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler, and Russ Ortiz can hold it together. If at least one of the veteran arms falters, the organization needs to think about turning to top pitching prospect Norris. The 24-year-old right-hander has allowed just 98 hits in 114 innings of work this season with a walk rate of 3.95 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.53 K/9. Even if they don’t need him now, the club might be better off by getting him some MLB experience – even if it’s in the bullpen – just in case the club needs an emergency starter late in the year or in the playoffs.

Sometimes you just can’t find a quip at the ready. You’re watching the all-star festivities, thinking about all the wonders of baseball and perusing the newest about Pitch F/X, Hit F/X, and now even Game F/X, and you think something will come. But there you are, and all you have is….

Kendry Morales – Projection systems often have trouble with breakouts, so maybe it’s not surprising that ZiPS projects Morales to basically halve his home run production from here on out, finishing with 23 home runs instead of the 26 or 27 he might otherwise be on pace for.

One can’t really blame the system for being pessimistic, however. He had only 19 home runs in 402 at-bats in the major and minor leagues combined last year, and only nine home runs in 401 total minor league at bats the year before. Why would this player approach 30 home runs?

Perhaps the pessimism also stems from Morales’ consistently low line drive percentages. When a player seems to lack home run power, the pundits fall back on the idea that he is a ‘line drive hitter’ or can ‘drive it in the gaps.’ Instead, it seems that Morales is the type of hitter that avoids the strikeout (16.9% career) in favor of putting the ball in play, often on the ground (44.9% ground ball rate). It certainly isn’t his line drive percentage (15.3% career, 17.5% this year).

One thing should be said: with a fly-ball rate over 40%, he could up the power. Lance Berkman and Adrian Gonzalez also own similar fly ball rates and have a little power. Morales’ HR/FB rate has increased every year and he may some day hit 30 home runs if only because he’s listed at 26 years old and has more baseball to play. He has also repeated AAA three times while waiting for his chance – he probably couldn’t be better prepared for this, and his peak is probably still on the way.

The year-27 peak theory has been disproved for the most part. An oft-referenced study by Schulz et al, done in 1994 by surveying the statistics of over 388 players that were active in 1965, found that major league baseball players peak between 25 and 28 years old. The reason for the range is that their peak is usually determined by their age when they broke into the majors. It follows that you would peak later if you debuted later. But the law of the bell curve also applies, and the later you join the league, the earlier you leave the league for the most part.

If this Cuban first baseman is actually 26 years old, he’s joining the majors early enough to have better years in front of him. For those in keeper leagues, this first half at least shows that he belongs and will play long enough to probably have a better year in sometime soon in his career.

However, if he’s closer to 30 and the owner of a false birth certificate like many other Cuban players, this is most likely his peak and he probably won’t be a starter in the majors for very long. That much we do know about the bell curves of major league players as it relates to their ages and their performances.

This upcoming week features the All-Star break and there will be no two-start pitchers. Instead, I want to take this opportunity to try out something new here at RotoGraphs – a live chat.

To the best of my knowledge, this has not been done before at the site and we do not have special software for a regular chat. Instead, submit your questions as comments below and I will answer them in the same spot. Anything baseball related is fair game, from fantasy questions, to managerial queries to historical comparisons and a million other topics.

I will be here starting at 3 PM Eastern time and will stay at least 30 minutes, more if it proves fun. You can submit questions at any time but I will not answer before 3:00. As always, thanks for reading and I look forward to the chat.

Repeat after me: 15 innings is not a significant sample size. This much we know. But three starts and fifteen innings in, much of baseball is still looking at John Smoltz and trying to figure out what’s left in the tank. Let’s join in, shall we?

The ‘normal’ stats that measure rate will fail us, but they do tell a story. His pinpoint control is still there – his 1.80 walks per nine would only count as his fourth-best full season if he kept it up, and it is right in line with his 2.63 career rate. The strikeout rate is the problem: at six Ks per nine, he’s well off his 7.97 career rate. The 54% strand rate and the .382 BABIP are blips on the radar, but if he can’t get the K-rate back up, he’ll be in trouble.

He’s been to this rodeo before. He had elbow surgeries in 1994, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2005. The one in 2000 was of the Tommy John variety. Not surprisingly, he’s seen strikeout dips of this magnitude in 1999 and 2005 after his other surgeries. And he’s seen many rebounds in his strikeout rate as well. Will he rebound this year? Let’s take a look at the pitch f/x data so far this year.

He’s lost some velocity, but going from 92.5 MPH on his fastball to 91.5 MPH shouldn’t rob him of all of his effectiveness. The slider going from 87 MPH in 2007 to 84.8 MPH is a little more worrisome, and that’s why his vaunted slider (worth over 20 runs in 2006 and 2007) is only worth 1.7 runs this year. But people are still swinging at 38% of his pitches outside the zone so the movement is possibly more important than the velocity.

Amazingly, the movement is mostly there. His fastball is moving exactly the same as it did in 2007, and he uses it about as much as he did before (over 40%), so at least 40% of his pitches are moving about the same. The changeup has retained its velocity and its horizontal movement, but has lost about an inch-plus of vertical drop since 2007. Maybe because it’s the secondary pitch that has retained its velocity and movement best, he’s begun using it a little more – all the way up to 19.8% this year (11.3% career).

But the slider. Ah, the slider. The slider has not only lost two-and-a-half miles per hour since 2007, but it’s also lost an inch-and-a-half of vertical drop. And there’s the rub. That’s fifteen innings of reduced movement and velocity in a Hall of Fame pitch. The Smoltz slider that has racked up over 200 wins, 150 saves, and a .789 postseason winning percentage – that slider is currently missing.

From reviewing his game charts from 2007, it looks like he’s had some temporary loss of movement in his slider before. Unfortunately, it looks like he lost much of that movement late in 2007, so it could have been when he was wearing down. If he’s missing that movement now, early in the season, it may bode poorly for him. For now though, repeat after me: 15 innings is not a significant sample size.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

Zach Stewart: A 2008 third-round pick out of Texas Tech, Stewart has had no problems dominating hitters in professional baseball. His up-and-down college career included stints in both the starting rotation and the bullpen. His pro career has been no different; Stewart spent his debut season in the ‘pen before moving to the rotation in 2009. He made seven starts in both high-A and double-A before moving back to the bullpen with a recent promotion to triple-A. That moves pretty much signifies that the Cincinnati organization views Stewart, 22, as a prospect that can help the club in the not-too-distant future. In double-A, the right-hander allowed just 29 hits in 37 innings of work while posting rates of 2.43 BB/9 and 7.54 K/9. He also does a nice job of keeping balls-in-play on the ground.

Cody Satterwhite: Detroit loves big-time arms, and Satterwhite is yet another college product that fits the bill. A 2008 second round draft pick out of Mississippi, the right-hander’s results have never matched up to his stuff (He was heavily scouted coming out of high school too, with the same knock against him). Satterwhite has been moved aggressively through the system by the Tigers, not unlike Ryan Perry. Satterwhite, 22, has posted a 9.8 K/9 strikeout rate to this point in his career, but he’s also been too hittable (9.0 H/9), while also allowing too many base runners via the walk (5.4 BB/9). With Detroit’s pitching depth still pretty weak – and with the bullpen struggling and unproven – Satterwhite may get a taste of the big leagues before he’s ready.

Phillippe Aumont: Staying with the theme of rushing pitchers, you can’t write on the topic without mentioning the No. 1 club for rushing prospects: The Seattle Mariners. Aumont was a highly-regarded prep pitcher when he was drafted in the first round of the 2007 draft. Everyone knew he had great stuff but he was extremely raw as a pitcher after growing up in Quebec, Canada. Despite his rough edges, Aumont has had a lot of success in pro ball, including at the extreme hitter’s domain known as High Desert (high-A). Pitching in the offense-oriented California League earlier this season, Aumont posted a 3.24 ERA (3.53 FIP) and allowed just 24 hits in 33.1 innings of work. He also posted a walk rate of 3.24 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.45 K/9. Now in double-A, he’s continued to pitch well, leading to the possibility that he could help Seattle by the end of 2009 – or certainly early on in 2010.

Henry Rodriguez: Rodriguez deserves to be lumped in with the pitchers above because he’s a hard-throwing reliever, but he hasn’t flown through the minors like the others. In fact, he’s been teasing the A’s with his potential since Stewart and Satterwhite were freshmen in college. Rodriguez appeared to be on the verge of a breakout season with a dominating performance in high-A ball in 2008, but the wheels fell off with a promotion to double-A. Rodriguez is looking better in triple-A this season, although he’s thrown just 15.2 innings (with a strikeout rate of 14.36 K/9). Control continues to be his biggest issue (5.17 BB/9) and he’s still pretty much a one-pitch pitcher with a fastball that can touch 100 mph.

Bryan Petersen: In the pre-season, I highlighted Petersen as one of my favorite sleeper prospects because of his intriguing combination of power and speed. The outfielder got off to a bit of a slow start in 2009 at the double-A level, but he’s picked things up since the beginning of June and is hitting .395 in his last 10 games. Petersen is still not hitting for power (.085 ISO) but his average is up to .288 and he’s got his strikeout rate under control (19.8 K%). He could probably hit right-handed MLB pitchers right now (.309 average) but the left-handed hitter still struggles against southpaws (.211 in 57 at-bats). Petersen stands to benefit from Florida’s lack of minor-league outfield depth. He certainly has more upside than a player like Alejandro De Aza.

Gaby Sanchez: Staying with the Florida theme, you have to figure the club is going to realize the error of its ways with playing Emilio Bonifacio everyday at third base. With the club inches from first place in the National League East, the team could use some consistent offense from the position and Bonifacio has proven that he is not the player to provide it. Sanchez, a converted first baseman, has been playing third base at triple-A. He’s not going to win any gold gloves out there, but his defense is no worse than Bonifacio’s and his bat has much more potential. Sanchez is currently hitting .298/.366/.462 with seven homers in 171 at-bats.

Well, it’s the last day of June. There are still three more months of baseball to play before the post-season begins, but a few teams can all but pack it in. Today, we’re going to take a look at the five teams that have the misfortune of being the furthest down in the standings. I am going to highlight one minor league player for each club that could (should) come up in the second half of the season and offer a spark for fantasy baseball managers in dire need of some help.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (18.5 games back):
Arizona’s No. 5 pitchers have been downright awful this season and No. 5 starter Jon Garland has not been much better. If it eats a little salary, the club might be able to spin 2008/09 free agent signee Garland (who’s on a one-year deal) to a playoff contender before the trading deadline. Right-handed pitcher Cesar Valdez is having a nice season in triple-A and is the top option to receive a look in the second half of the year. He has modest fastball velocity, but Valdez possesses a plus changeup, a pretty good splitter and knows how to change speeds. So far this season in triple-A, he has allowed 72 hits in 76 innings of work. He also has a walk rate of just 2.72 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.16 K/9. He’s not flashy, but Valdez should be a more-than-adequate No. 4 starter for an organization that lacks premium prospects at the upper levels of the farm system.

The Washington Nationals (17.5 games back):
We’ve already seen quite a few young pitchers perform for the Nationals this season and the organization is still recovering (especially in the upper minors) from years of MLB control, which hampered draft budgets. With starting pitchers like Craig Stammen and Ross Detwiler having modest-at-best results, the club could still afford to take a look at a couple triple-A hurlers who have yet to receive a taste of the Majors this season: Collin Balester and J.D. Martin. I won’t get into Martin’s case too heavily, since Dave took a look at the former Cleveland prospect the other day over on the FanGraphs side of the site and made a pretty convincing argument for his promotion. Balester, on the other hand, made 15 starts for the 2008 Nationals and showed that he still had work to do after allowing 92 hits in 80 innings and posting an ERA of 5.51 (5.11 FIP). This season in triple-A, he’s still been a little too hittable with 89 hits allowed in 81.1 innings, but he’s trimmed his home run problem from a rate of 1.60 to 0.33 HR/9. Balester has also trimmed his 2008 triple-A FIP of 4.92 down to 3.59 this season.

The San Diego Padres (15 games back):
PETCO Park and Mat Latos just might be a match made in heaven. The 21-year-old right-hander has been absolutely dominating in the minors this season – originally in high-A ball and now in double-A. In 11 combined appearances, the hurler has a 1.28 ERA and has allowed just 37 hits in 63.1 innings of work. At double-A, he has a walk rate of 2.13 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.00 K/9. His FIP is 1.99. Latos, though, is a fly ball pitcher (despite allowing just one homer this season). It helps that he has a repertoire that includes a fastball that can touch 97 mph, a wicked slider and a developing changeup. With help from PETCO’s larger-than-average dimensions, he could be a very dominating pitcher in short order.

The Baltimore Orioles (13 games back):
The organization has already debuted the most highly-anticipated rookie of 2009 in catcher Matt Wieters. It also has outfielder Nolan Reimold making a legitimate charge at the Rookie of the Year award in the American League. With rookie starters Brad Bergesen and Koji Uehara also pitching well, you might think the high-level prospect cupboard would be bare, but it’s not. The triple-A rotation contains three promising rookie pitchers in Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, and Troy Patton. Tillman, though, is probably the closest to being MLB-ready. The right-hander, unlike the other two hurlers, has spent the entire season in triple-A and he has posted a 2.97 ERA (2.80 FIP). Tillman has allowed 62 hits in 72.2 innings of work and he’s posted rates of 2.60 BB/9 and 9.29 K/9. His repertoire includes a low-90s fastball, plus curveball and good changeup.

The Cleveland Indians (12 games back):
You’ve already seen him once and he struggled a bit in his first taste of MLB action, but it’s hard to keep a good prospect down. Left-fielder Matt LaPorta hit just .190/.286/.286 in his first 13 MLB games, but he’s gone back down to the minors and worked hard. He’s trimmed his strikeout rate from more than 20% in his career down to 16.7%. The former college catcher has also continued to hit above .300 while also hitting the ball with authority (.219 ISO, 22.7 LD%). Sooner or later, the club is going to tire of Ben Francisco’s (lack of) hitting: .225/.303/.356 in 236 at-bats.

Stock Up

Jason Hammel, Rockies

Out of options this past spring, Hammel was shipped from the Rays to the Rockies for minor league righty Aneury Rodriguez. While the 21 year-old Dominican is struggling with his control in Double-A (4.99 BB/9), Hammel has posted an impressive 3.73 FIP in 72.2 innings.

The 26 year-old Hammel has punched out 6.32 hitters per nine innings, while issuing 2.35 BB/9. That’s a marked improvement over his work with the Rays from 2006-2008, when he walked in excess of four per nine frames each season. Hammel’s fastball (-1.41 runs/100 pitches) and changeup (-2.8) are getting hit hard, but his mid-80’s slider (+1.33) and mid-70’s curve (+3.34) are getting the job done. Colorado’s starters rank 7th in the majors in team FIP. Who knew?

Seth Smith, Rockies

Dave Cameron’s Seth Smith Liberation Party scored a major victory recently, as new Rockies skipper Jim Tracy said that the 26 year-old lefty hitter will receive more playing time. Smith owns a .391 wOBA in 290 career plate appearances in the big leagues, while showing excellent plate discipline (14.9 BB%, 21.3 Outside-Swing%). That level of performance is unlikely to persist, but ZIPS sees Smith swatting a highly-useful .296/.371/.487 during the rest of the season.

B.J. Upton, Rays

Following offseason shoulder surgery and a short DL stint, Upton got off to an inauspicious start (.177/.320/.226 in April, .218/.285/.323 in May). Perhaps the 24 year-old is now fully recovered from going under the knife, as he holds a .333/.400/.556 line in June (4 HR). Has Upton recovered his bat speed? His numbers against fastballs certainly suggest that’s the case:

April: -1.85 Runs/100
May: -0.97 Runs/100
June: +2.76 Runs/100

To boot, B.J. is on pace to far surpass his stolen base total last season (44), with 28 swipes in 35 attempts. This is the player whom I likened to a young Carlos Beltran this past off-season.

Geovany Soto, Cubs

Soto’s sock is back. Geovany’s slugging percentages over the first three months: .130 in April, .354 in May and .559 in June. After hitting one dinger during the first two months, Soto has smacked 6 in June. It might take a while for his season numbers to look more in line with pre-season expectations, but Soto is allaying concerns that an early-season shoulder injury would wreck his 2009 campaign.

Randy Johnson, Giants

While Johnson’s 4.68 ERA looks unimpressive, The Big Unit is still pretty darned nasty. He has whiffed 8.17 batters per nine innings, while walking 2.94. Johnson has given up his fair share of homers over the past few seasons, but his 17.1 HR/FB rate well above his 10.8% mark in 2007. R.J.’s Expected Fielding Independent ERA (based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR/FB rate) is 3.57 in 2009. That ranks 7th in the N.L. Don’t be surprised if that ERA continues to dip.

Stock Down

Adrian Beltre, Mariners

While he’s backing M’s pitchers with his customary stellar D (+16.7 UZR/150) and is beginning to hit the ball with more authority (.319/.347/.468 in June), Beltre will unfortunately have to undergo surgery to remove bone chips from his right shoulder. He could be out up to two months.

The 30 year-old will be an interesting free agent this winter. Though some seem to view Beltre’s deal with the Mariners as a mistake, Beltre was valued almost perfectly by Seattle. Inked to a 5-year, $64M deal prior to the 2005 season, Beltre has provided a total of 15.5 Wins Above Replacement. That has been worth $62.4M.

Prior to this year’s injury-plagued work at the plate, the righty hitter posted an average of 8.2 park-adjusted Batting Runs from 2006-2008. He’s a good hitter masked by Safeco, a wonderful fielder and one of the least appreciated performers in the game.

Mike Jacobs, Royals

Jacobs has done a better job of working the count this season (9.7 BB%, 7.9% career average), but he’s largely been the same contact-challenged (31.3 K%) platoon hitter who’s helpless versus lefties (.205/.284/.301). The arbitration-eligible Jacobs (making $3.25M this year) has provided -0.1 WAR for K.C. In other news, Kila Kaaihue
is hitting .273/.412/.508 at AAA Omaha, drawing a walk 19.6% of the time.

Shairon Martis, Nationals

Martis is another example of why Win-Loss records for starters just don’t mean very much. The 22 year-old Dutchman holds a 5-3 mark, but he just isn’t getting the job done at the major league level. Martis’ FIP is a grisly 5.43, as he has walked more hitters (4.10 BB/9) than he has struck out (3.57 K/9). Perhaps realizing that he could use more seasoning while simultaneously limiting his innings, the Nationals optioned Martis to AAA Syracuse.

Andy Sonnanstine, Rays

Sonnanstine has been scorched to the tune of a 5.10 FIP, as he has surrendered 1.65 HR/9. His XFIP is a less-ugly 4.62, but the Kent State control artist hasn’t been as sharp this season. Sonny’s K/BB ratio was 3.35 in ’08, but that dipped to 2.27 in 2009 as his K rate fell slightly (5.77 to 5.51) and his rate of free passes dished out rose from 1.72 to 2.42. Sonnanstine’s five-pitch mix led to a 64 First-Pitch Strike% in 2008 (9th-best among starters), but that figure has tumbled to a league-average 58% this year. The 26 year-old was optioned to AAA Durham to make way for Scott Kazmir.

Hank Blalock, Rangers

When is a projected 36-homer season not all that valuable? When it comes with a 5.3% walk rate and a .284 OBP. Hank is hammerin’ the ball (.266 ISO), but the all-or-nothing approach has led to a wOBA (.332) slightly below the league average. Counter intuitively, Blalock has become more of a free-swinger as the years have gone by. He drew a free pass 9.2% of the time in 2007 and 6.9% in 2008, before this year’s new low point.

Many fantasy leagues break the outfielders up by their respective positions, a quirk that creates a premium outfield position. Consider that, in many formats, the 12th-ranked center fielder going into the season was Chris Young, whose projections were comparable to the 12th-ranked second baseman going into the season (Rickie Weeks).

Defense then becomes a non-fantasy entity that can mean a lot to the fantasy fortunes of the center fielder. Play good defense, and you’ll buy yourself more time to figure out the batting part of the deal. Or at least, that seems to be what’s keeping Carlos Gomez playing in Minnesota. Let’s take a look at two young center fielders, how they are faring, and how defense factors into the decision.

Dexter Fowler – For a 23-year-old getting his first extended burn at the major league level, Fowler is acquitting himself reasonably well. His .264/.354/.405 slash line has a little bit of something for everyone. Walking 12.7% of the time assures that he can take advantage of his prodigious speed (6.5 speed score). He’s stolen 13 bases at a 72% success rate, and he’s hit three homers and 17 doubles in 273 plate appearances.

But it’s not all gravy on this train. He’s striking out 25% of the time after hovering around 20% for the large part of his minor league career. Subsequently, ZiPS RoS has him hitting .271 the rest of the season and continuing his current pace to finish with seven home runs and 25 stolen bases. Until his K-rate falls a little, that’s about the best that can be expected from this young man.

Because his offense is currently adequate, and his team is suddenly playing well, defense may not factor into his playing time too strongly. However, his team is not a strong contender in a crowded division, and things could change quickly. Pack an extended burn of strikeouts into a team-wide slump and a decision by management to focus on next year, and suddenly Fowler’s sub-par defense could become an ‘issue.’

His current 2.1 Range Factor in center field puts him in the Shane Victorino (2.3 RF) – Vernon Wells (2.3 RF) section of center field defenders. That’s the section where the offense helps the poor defense stay on the field. Is Fowler’s bat enough to offset the 5.3 runs he’s giving back on defense? Not if the major league team decides to think about his long-term future and sends him back to the minors to work on his D. That might also allow the team to showcase someone like Ryan Spilborghs for a trade.

Fernando Martinez – While his minor league team had already decided to play him at the corners, his major league team has a major league hole in center field and looks to be plugging it with their highest-ranked prospect. A look at the defense says that this is a short-term solution at best.

If major league defensive stats are still in their infancy, then minor league ones are much worse off. We can see that Martinez had a Range Factor of 2.31 in center field in the minor leagues, and that Carlos Beltran, an elite defender, had a career Range Factor of 2.7 in center field in the major leagues. Using the cruder Range Factor suggests that Martinez, like Fowler, could use some time honing his defense.

The problem in Martinez’ case, though, is that his offense won’t keep him in the position much longer. While his secondary offensive statistics are a little up and down like Fowler’s, Martinez has much more down in his numbers.

The good news is that he’s not striking out a ton (14.5%), and he’s shown improvement in that area over the last two years. His walk rate (6.8%) is in line with his minor league numbers, too.

But he’s not making good contact. He’s reaching outside the zone too much (26.5%) and not squaring the ball well (11.9% line drives). His 55.9% ground-ball percentage is positively Delmon Young-esque. Given that he’s only 20 years old, it’s a lot to ask of him to spell Beltran.

Since the team is in contention, look for Omar Minaya to target a center field platoon partner for Jeremy Reed. Relatively cheap acquisitions like Scott Hairston and Jason Michaels could take the bat out of Reed’s hands against lefties, while also letting young F-Mart work out some more kinks in the minor leagues. Those cheaper veteran outfielders would also still have value once all the injured veterans return.

This weekend’s Interleague Series featuring Toronto and Washington may not be a huge draw south of the border, but there are three interesting things to keep an eye on. Firstly, the Nationals were, of course, originally Canada’s first Major League Baseball team – the Montreal Expos. Secondly, it will be the first time that the two clubs have met up since Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi made some disparaging remarks in the media about (then Cincinnati Reds slugger) Adam Dunn, who now plays in Washington. Do you think Dunn will be locked in?

Thirdly, and most interestingly (as far as I am concerned), this series will feature appearances from five (out of the possible six) rookie starters. Toronto will send veteran Brian Tallet to the mound on Friday, but then he will be followed by rookies Brett Cecil and Ricky Romero. Interestingly, all three pitchers are left-handers. Washington will counter with three rookies this weekend: Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler (also a southpaw), and Shairon Martis. The Washington line-up is right-handed heavy (with the exception of Dunn and Nick Johnson) so the on-paper match-up goes to the Nationals.

Brett Cecil, 22, pitched fairly well in his first three Major League games this season. It was his fourth start that doomed him and sent him back to the minors. On May 20 in Boston, Cecil allowed 11 hits in 4.2 innings of work, along with two walks and five home runs. Overall, he has allowed 28 hits in 24.2 innings of work, while allowing seven homers and posting rates of 2.19 BB/9 and 6.57 K/9. His ERA is 4.38 but his FIP is 6.39. Cecil also has a ground-ball rate of 52%.

Ricky Romero has been a savior to the Jays’ rotation in 2009, despite missing time with an oblique strain (but what Jays pitcher hasn’t been injured this season). The 24-year-old former No. 1 draft pick has a 3.73 ERA (4.77 FIP) and has allowed 52 hits in 50.2 innings of work. He’s also posted a walk rate of 2.84 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.28 K/9. Romero has a ground-ball rate of 50%.

Jordan Zimmermann, 23, has been inconsistent this season, but his talent is obvious. In 57 innings, he has allowed 61 hits, while posting rates of 2.53 BB/9 and 9.47 K/9. His ERA is 5.37 but his FIP is just 3.79. He has a ground-ball rate of just 44.2%, which has been hurt by a line-drive rate of 25.0%.

Ross Detwiler, 23, has a 5.23 ERA, but once again a Nationals pitcher has a much lower FIP at 3.83. He has allowed 36 hits in 32.2 innings of work. He’s also posted a walk rate of 3.86 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.34 BB/9. Detwiler has done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park with just two homers allowed (0.55 HR/9).

Shairon Martis, 22, has pitched more than any other rookie pitcher in this series at 75 and he’s allowed just 69 hits. His rates, though, are not that good with a walk rate of 4.04 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 3.45 K/9. His ERA is currently 4.75, with a FIP of 5.14. He’s allowed eight home runs (0.85 BB/9). With a ground-ball rate of just 41.3%, Martis is constantly flirting with disaster thanks to his modest fastball (an average of 90 mph) and his spotty control.

The youth movement in Major League Baseball is in all its glory this weekend in Washington. In fact, the Jays organization actually has more rookies in its Major League rotation right now, than it does in triple-A Las Vegas. So who do you think will win the battle of the rookies – in both this series and in the years to come?