Smoltz Under Water?

Repeat after me: 15 innings is not a significant sample size. This much we know. But three starts and fifteen innings in, much of baseball is still looking at John Smoltz and trying to figure out what’s left in the tank. Let’s join in, shall we?

The ‘normal’ stats that measure rate will fail us, but they do tell a story. His pinpoint control is still there – his 1.80 walks per nine would only count as his fourth-best full season if he kept it up, and it is right in line with his 2.63 career rate. The strikeout rate is the problem: at six Ks per nine, he’s well off his 7.97 career rate. The 54% strand rate and the .382 BABIP are blips on the radar, but if he can’t get the K-rate back up, he’ll be in trouble.

He’s been to this rodeo before. He had elbow surgeries in 1994, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2005. The one in 2000 was of the Tommy John variety. Not surprisingly, he’s seen strikeout dips of this magnitude in 1999 and 2005 after his other surgeries. And he’s seen many rebounds in his strikeout rate as well. Will he rebound this year? Let’s take a look at the pitch f/x data so far this year.

He’s lost some velocity, but going from 92.5 MPH on his fastball to 91.5 MPH shouldn’t rob him of all of his effectiveness. The slider going from 87 MPH in 2007 to 84.8 MPH is a little more worrisome, and that’s why his vaunted slider (worth over 20 runs in 2006 and 2007) is only worth 1.7 runs this year. But people are still swinging at 38% of his pitches outside the zone so the movement is possibly more important than the velocity.

Amazingly, the movement is mostly there. His fastball is moving exactly the same as it did in 2007, and he uses it about as much as he did before (over 40%), so at least 40% of his pitches are moving about the same. The changeup has retained its velocity and its horizontal movement, but has lost about an inch-plus of vertical drop since 2007. Maybe because it’s the secondary pitch that has retained its velocity and movement best, he’s begun using it a little more – all the way up to 19.8% this year (11.3% career).

But the slider. Ah, the slider. The slider has not only lost two-and-a-half miles per hour since 2007, but it’s also lost an inch-and-a-half of vertical drop. And there’s the rub. That’s fifteen innings of reduced movement and velocity in a Hall of Fame pitch. The Smoltz slider that has racked up over 200 wins, 150 saves, and a .789 postseason winning percentage – that slider is currently missing.

From reviewing his game charts from 2007, it looks like he’s had some temporary loss of movement in his slider before. Unfortunately, it looks like he lost much of that movement late in 2007, so it could have been when he was wearing down. If he’s missing that movement now, early in the season, it may bode poorly for him. For now though, repeat after me: 15 innings is not a significant sample size.