Archive for Uncategorized

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Alex Avila, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

With the MLB rosters expanding from the standard 25 men to as many as 40 players, we’re switching things up this week and taking a look at some of the more interesting prospects making their MLB debuts.

Buster Posey: There was some talk that San Francisco would delay Posey’s promotion to the Majors in an effort to save some money, but the organization did the right thing and brought him up for a taste of the Majors. Posey has proven that his bat and glove are MLB ready. In a perfect world (keeping in mind their GM loves veterans), Posey would spend 2010 seeing 60-70% of the playing time behind the dish with San Francisco. A veteran catcher – Bengie Molina if he’s up to the decreased role – would then see the remainder of the playing time while serving as a mentor to the rookie backstop. There isn’t much that Posey cannot do with the bat; he hits for power (.200 ISO), for average (.310 at AAA) and takes his fair share of walks (11.9% in AAA). Overall, the 22-year-old prospect hit .325/.416/.531 in 422 at-bats at high-A and triple-A.

Tyler Flowers: Flowers cannot match Posey’s overall game but this White Sox prospect could make veteran A.J. Pierzynski expendable after the 2010 season – if not before. Flowers might struggle to hit for a high average because he has trouble making contact sometimes (30.5 K%), but he posted a .246 ISO in 248 double-A at-bats before moving up to triple-A. Flowers, an average backstop, also takes a ton of walks, having posted a 19.2% walk rate in 2008 and a rate of 18.7% in double-A in ’09. Flowers has been a lefty killer in his minor-league career and hit .358 against them this year with an OPS of 1.119.

Wade Davis: With the trade of Scott Kazmir, the Rays acquired a few interesting young names, while also opening up a rotation spot for either Andy Sonnanstine or Davis. The right-handed rookie has been a top prospect in the system for a few years now but his numbers were just good in triple-A… as opposed to great. Now 24, Davis allowed 139 hits in 158.2 innings of work at triple-A in 2009, while posting a walk rate of 3.43 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.86 K/9. He is the early favorite to replace Kazmir in the 2010 starting rotation, although Sonnanstine has the experience edge.

Michael Brantley: Obtained as part of the C.C. Sabathia deal last year, this outfielder is not a slam-dunk star but he has more than enough talent to be a valuable contributor to the Indians and your fantasy squad. Brantley understands his game very well for a 22 year old. The left-handed hitter had a bit of a down year in triple-A this season but he still walked more than he struck out (1.23 BB/K) and he posted an 11.4 BB%. He stole a career high 43 bases in 48 attempts but hit just .267 (.288 BABIP). At worst, he should be a very valuable fourth outfielder and pinch runner.

Josh Thole: Another catcher, Thole was converted from first base to catcher and has really improved his value to the point where he is one of the brighter up-and-coming backstop prospects. A left-handed hitter, Thole has hit .300+ in each of the past two seasons, including .328/.395/.422 in 384 at-bats in double-A this year. He’ll need to keep that average up because he has almost no power to speak of, as witnessed by his .094 ISO.

Neil Walker: Walker’s star has diminished significantly from the days when he was the top prospect in the Pirates system. He’s struggled in triple-A for two straight seasons and is currently sandwiched in between Andy LaRoche and Pedro Alvarez. Walker could end up as a AAAA slugger, or a bench player, which is a far cry from the days that the Pittsburgh native was the club’s No. 1 draft pick out of high school. This year he hit just .266/.312/.484 with 14 homers in 353 at-bats. The .218 ISO is nice, but the 6.6% walk rate is not.

It is never too late to improve your team! Here are five players available on the waiver wire under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your squad for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Mike MacDougal (35%) – Released by the White Sox after five games and a 12.46 ERA, MacDougal has found new life with the Nationals and has ascended to the closer role. Ordinarily, this is not someone we would focus on, as he has a 4.48 FIP with Washington, compared to a 1.93 ERA, along with below-average K numbers. But with less than a month remaining in the season and the chance to pick up saves, he becomes an attractive add.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Homer Bailey (28%) – Coming off back-to-back starts in which he has allowed just one run in 15 innings, Bailey could still yet turn into the pitcher we have been waiting for the past few years. After averaging in the low 90s in his first two years in the majors, Bailey checks in this year at 94.5 and he was clocked at 98 in his August 23rd start.

Under 20 Percent Owned

Sean West (15%) – Has hurled a Quality Start in three of his last four outings, missing only in the second of back-to-back starts against the Astros. He tied a season high with 7 Ks in his last outing. West is 5-2 with a 3.26 ERA in nine home games this season.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Drew Stubbs (5%) – After starting the season 2-17, Stubbs has put up a .295-2-5-8-3 line in his last nine games. Stubbs is a “tools” guy, so he offers the chance for HR and SB for the final month of the season. His AVG may be his weakest tool, but that should not hurt fantasy teams too much this late in the season.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Milton Bradley (53%) – Yes, he has some baggage. But he is also a productive hitter when in the lineup, which should be all that matters as you chase a money spot in your league. In his last 35 games, Bradley has a .319-5-15-27-2 line. And unlike last year, Bradley is doing it in 2009 with sustainable numbers in a .319 BABIP and a 12.9% HR/FB rate.

Stock Up

Andrew McCutchen, Pirates

Ever hear the old adage that even a blind squirrel finds the occasional nut? Well, McCutchen is the legume uncovered during the otherwise comedic/tragic tenure of former Pirates GM Dave Littlefield. The 11th overall selection in a stunningly deep 2005 draft class, McCutchen has hit the ground running in the majors. He’s batting .293/.362/.500 in 337 PA, showing power (.207 ISO, 10 HR) that belies his 5-11, 170 pound frame and well surpasses his minor league dossier.

The 22 year-old is working the count rather well (9.6 BB%, 18 K%), chasing 21.6% of pitches out of the strike zone (25.1% MLB avg). McCutchen has also been a smart, efficient base thief, with 15 swipes in 18 attempts (83.3% success rate). Couple the quality bat and high-percentage running with ample range in center field (+10.4 UZR/150), and you have a franchise pillar who has racked up 3.2 WAR since his early June call-up.

Ervin Santana, Angels

Is Santana turning his season around? There’s reason to believe so. Not that Ervin has been his dominant 2008 self this month, but he has allowed 12 runs in 33 August frames, holding opponents to a .250/.338/.408 line. Santana’s ’09 campaign has been plagued by injuries (a partially torn UCL and a forearm strain) and a consequent loss in velocity (after firing 94.4 MPH bullets and 84 MPH sliders in ’08, Santana’s overall fastball velocity sits at 91.8 MPH in ’09, with an 82 MPH slider).

However, his stuff does seem to be trending up as of late. His average fastball velocity is up to 92.3 MPH in August, and the pitch has been moderately effective after a disastrous showing earlier:

Santana’s Runs/100 pitches value with his fastball, by month:

May: -4.49
June: +1.12
July: -2.59
August: -0.13

(note: these linear run values are dependent on things like BABIP and HR/FB rate. In the case of a guy like Santana, his BABIP was in excess of .350 during the first three months, meaning those numbers shouldn’t like quite as bad as they do).

John Smoltz, Cardinals

Smoltz’s good processes and awful results with the Red Sox spurred countless discussions on just how we can more properly evaluate pitching performance.

The easy, lazy narrative on Smoltz following his run of drubbings with Boston was, “he’s old, injured and washed up.” But his underlying numbers suggested that he was still capable of performing at the highest level.

Latching on with St. Louis, Smoltz has made two excellent starts to begin his Red Bird career (a combined 11 IP, 15 K, 1 BB and 1 R vs. San Diego and Washington). While clearly promising, Smoltz’s two dominant outings don’t declare “he’s back” any more than his brutal Boston stint announced “he’s done.”

I’m obviously in the more optimistic camp when it comes to Smoltz’s future, but declaring “I told you so” after two starts would be even more foolish than coming to the conclusion that he was washed up following his Boston tenure. In other words, it’s just best to avoid knee-jerk reactions based on a small smattering of playing time.

Barry Zito, Giants

By this point, saying that the immense financial commitment that the Giants made to Barry Zito through at least 2013 was unwise is like beating a dead horse. Frankly, it’s more like beating glue. But, the calls for the club to outright release the left-hander are hyperbolic to the highest degree. That Reign of Terror-like bloodlust (“off with his head!”) might make for headline-generating copy, but it would also be a terrible financial decision.

Zito isn’t worth nearly $20M per season; we get it. But that doesn’t mean he’s worthless, either. In 2009, Barry has posted his lowest FIP (4.20) since 2003, with his highest K rate (6.93) since ’02 and his lowest walk rate (3.49) since ’04. His vaunted curveball (+2.49 runs/100 pitches thrown) is in the black run-wise for the first time since 2005, and Zito’s slider (+2.24 runs/100) is also getting the job done.

Overall, Zito has been worth 2.2 WAR, which equates to about $9.8M worth of value. Yes, that falls well short of how the Giants are compensating him. But severing ties for the mere sake of satiating the scribes would be like cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Rajai Davis, Athletics

A 28 year-old speedster originally drafted by the Pirates, Davis has gone from DFA’d Giant during the spring to everyday center fielder for the A’s. A plus defender and an adept base stealer (29 for 37 in ’09), Rajai could be a viable starter if he can avoid stinking up the joint at the plate.

While Davis’ gifts afield and on the bases are apparent, we don’t exactly know what to expect from an offensive standpoint. He was relatively patient in a productive 2007 season (10 BB%, 19.4 O-Swing%), an unabashed hacker in a letdown 2008 campaign (3.6 BB%, 36.2 O-Swing%), and he has essentially split the difference in 2009 (7.8 BB%, 30.9 O-Swing%). If Davis can work the count and get on base at a reasonable clip, he’s a perfectly acceptable regular and a person of interest in fantasy circles. If he reverts to chasing off the plate and in the dirt, he’s Willy Taveras.

Stock Down

Johan Santana, Mets

At this pace, Mr. Met will be inserted into the New York lineup by mid-September. Santana is just the latest in a staggeringly long line of Mets casualties, as he’s done for the season following arthroscopic surgery to remove bone spurs from his left elbow.

Something was clearly amiss with the ace southpaw, as his K rate plummeted after a dominant April and May and his fastball velocity dipped into the 80’s (89.5 MPH in August). What’s Nelson Figueroa’s WAMM (Wins Above Mr. Met)?

Hank Blalock, Rangers

The 28 year-old Blalock once looked like a building-block player for the Rangers (he posted 5.3 WAR in 2003 and 4.4 WAR in 2004). Since then, not-so-hammerin’ Hank has compiled 2.5 WAR. Combined. Injuries have assuredly played a part, but Blalock’s plate patience has progressively eroded:

2007: 9.2 BB%
2008: 6.9 BB%
2009: 4.7 BB%

Hank’s wOBA has dipped from .383 in ’07 to .317 this year. And now, he’ll grab some pine as Chris Davis gets another chance to, well, stop hitting like Blalock.

Bobby Parnell, Mets

Forced into the depleted Queens rotation, Parnell has been hammered for 24 runs in 21 innings as a starter. The 6-4, 200 pound righty (a 9th-round selection out of Charleston Southern in 2005) boasts a low-to-mid-90’s heater with good movement out of the ‘pen, but middling control and questionable secondary offerings call into question his viability as a starter. There’s certainly no harm in trying to figure out if the soon-to-be 25 year-old can handle lineups multiple times (all but two of his appearances in the minors came as a starter), but he appears to be Mike Pelfrey, with worse control.

B.J. Upton, Rays

Let me preface this by saying that I remain a big believer in Upton. The 2nd overall pick in the ’02 draft just turned 25. And at one point or another, B.J. has shown every skill required of a superstar player. He has popped extra base hits (.209 ISO in ’07), has generally worked the count very well (11.7 BB% career), can swipe plenty of bags (he’s on pace for over 40 this year) and has acclimated himself to center field after his nomadic “shortstop, no second baseman, no third baseman” experience.

With strong D, Upton has still been a valuable contributor this season (2.1 WAR). But from a fantasy standpoint, he has been a disappointment. B.J.’s walk rate is down to 9.5% after a career-best 15.4% in ’08. Upton’s relative power outage in 2008 (.128 ISO) was largely attributed to a shoulder injury that required off-season surgery and sidelined him early in ’09, but his ISO this year (.129) hasn’t climbed. His first-pitch strike%, just 55.2% in 2008, is up to 62.1% in 2009 (58.2% MLB average).

The overall package of tools remains tantalizing, and Upton’s down 2009 could actually present an opportunity to buy low in 2010. But, owners who invested a high draft pick back in March are surely bummed out.

Aaron Harang, Reds

Harang’s 2009 season is over, following an emergency appendectomy. And with that, three-fifths of Cincy’s rotation (Cueto, Volquez and Harang) has hit the shelf during the summer.

The popular narrative for Harang cites the massive change in his won-loss record from 2007 (16-6) to 2009 (6-14). Oh, how the mighty have fallen. But how much has Harang really declined? Not that much, when viewed through the scope of Expected Fielding Independent ERA:

2006: 3.89 XFIP
2007: 3.81 XFIP
2008: 4.39 XFIP
2009: 4.00 XFIP

As a fly ball-centric pitcher in a ballpark that inflates home run production considerably, Harang and Great American Ballpark go together like peanut butter and tooth paste. But he’s still largely the same guy who performed so admirably from 2005-2007.

Monday night ESPN televised the Tigers-Angels game. Veteran baseball man (and current ESPN Baseball Today co-host) Peter Pascarelli joined Joe Morgan and Jon Sciambi in the booth for a couple of innings. Pascarelli came across well – he had a good voice and brought some opinions to the table. But one thing he said jumped out at me.

Pascarelli was talking about Angels reliever Jose Arredondo and mentioned that a drop in velocity was leading to his disappointing season.

In 2008, Arredondo averaged 93.7 with his fastball and this year his average is down to 92.2 – a noticeable drop and one which seemingly supports Pascarelli’s assertion. Pitch Type Values show Arredondo’s fastball being a plus pitch in 2008 and slightly below average this season. Last year Arredondo had a wFB/C of 1.55 while this year it sits at minus 0.07.

Now, that is unquestionably a noticeable difference. A wFB/C of 1.55 would rank as a Top 20 mark this season for relievers. But is it enough to explain how Arredondo went from a 10-2, 1.62 ERA in 2008 to a 1-3, 5.97 ERA this season? Especially since he averaged 93.94 with his four-seam fastball Monday night, topped out at 95.3 and gave up four runs?

Since Arredondo is a reliever, we are dealing with small samples. Last year he pitched in 61 innings and this year he has just 34.2 through Monday night’s game. However, there is much less difference between the two seasons if we simply examine his FIP. In 2008 Arredondo had a 3.10 FIP compared to a 3.77 mark this season.

When Arredondo came out of nowhere to put up his outstanding 2008 season, he enjoyed a great deal of good fortune. His BABIP was .250 while he posted an 82.2 percent strand rate. And his FIP may have even been underestimating his fortune, as he had a HR/FB rate of 5.8 percent last year.

Flash forward to this season and we see the exact opposite in Arredondo’s fortune. Now he has a .373 BABIP and a 64.8 percent strand rate. And his HR/FB rate has more than doubled to its current 12.5 percent, or slightly above-average rate.

Perhaps Pascarelli is right and Arredondo’s poor season is due to his drop in velocity. Or maybe it was just regression. Either way, smart fantasy owners avoided him on Draft Day and are happy with that decision, even with Arredondo’s increase of two strikeouts per nine innings over a season ago.

It is never too late to improve your team! Here are five players available on the waiver wire under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your squad for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Jason Hammel (30%) – Hammel’s overall numbers do not suggest a pitcher who is a worthwhile fantasy option. But this is the classic case of a pitcher to plug into the lineup depending on circumstances and as you might guess for a Rockies pitcher, activate him when he is on the road. This year in home starts, Hammel has 2 W, 7.02 ERA, 35 Ks and a 1.920 WHIP. Meanwhile, away from Coors Field, he has 6 W, 2.88 ERA, 52 Ks and a 1.227 WHIP.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Kyle Blanks (24%) – Power is one of the hardest things to find on the waiver wire so it is refreshing to see someone who is in the lineup virtually on a full-time basis who carries a .247 ISO. Since the All-Star break, Blanks has a .284/.392/.608 slash line in 120 PA. He has 9 HR, 17 RBI and 20 R in 35 games (28 starts) in the second half.

Under 20 Percent Owned

Lastings Milledge (19%) – In a very small sample of 83 PA, Milledge has been decent since returning to the majors with the Pirates. And those numbers would be better if they did not include a 1-for-15 trip to the Windy City. Milledge can hit a few HR and notch a few SB down the stretch and not kill you in AVG. He is an everyday outfielder on the waiver wire with some upside.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Luis Valbuena (3 %) – In the second half of the season, Valbuena has a .298/.365/.521 line in 104 PA. He has 13 RBIs and 17 R in that span, which covers 27 games (25 starts). Currently, Valbuena is riding a 7-game hitting streak and he has 3 HR in that stretch. The 23-year old hails from Venezuela and was acquired by the Indians from the Mariners in the three-team trade this past winter. In the deal Cleveland also picked up Joe Smith from the Mets and dealt away Franklin Gutierrez.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Rajai Davis (47%) – He has very little power but Davis is a big-time SB threat who hits for a good AVG. Since settling in as the A’s starting center fielder, Davis has a .344 AVG with 16 RBIs, 17 R and 14 SB in his last 25 games. For the year he has a .344 BABIP but he also has a 21.1 percent LD rate. The Dutton/Carty xBABIP Quick Calculator gives him an xBABIP of .319 for the season.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Big Jon is still pumping gas this month, as evidenced by his 97.6 MPH velocity and 9 K’s in 8.1 IP. However, whether the cause be fatigue or a lingering big toe injury, Broxton hasn’t been the same dominant force that scorched lineups in the 9th during the first half of the season. He blew a save vs. the Diamondbacks on the 15th, getting whipped for 2 home runs (Miguel Montero and Mark Reynolds) in a blown save. Broxton worked scoreless innings against St. Louis on the 17th and the 18th (which was a save op), but then gave up a run vs. the Red Birds yesterday in a loss.

While it could just be the product of an extremely small sample (a reliever’s seasonal line can be skewed from a bad appearance or two, much less numbers from one month), opponents have made contact with 92.7% of Broxton’s pitches thrown within the strike zone in August. That’s a marked jump from his 81.5% mark for the season.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath was manhandled against the Cardinals on August 16th, coughing up 3 runs in 0.1 frames (Colby Rasmus’ 12th-inning bomb sealed the deal for St. Louis). Bell then picked up a W vs. the Cubs on the 17th, and racked up save number 30 against Chicago on the 18th. The former Mets castoff is doing everything that one could ask from a reliever: he’s fooling plenty of batters (9.99 K/9, a career-high rate), limiting the walks well enough (2.96 BB/9) and inducing worm-burners (51.7 GB%).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street destroyed hitters in July (10.1 IP, 12/0 K/BB, 1 R), but August has not been nearly as kind (5.2 IP, 5/1 K/BB, 6 R). Huston did collect 3 saves this week, though they likely gave Rockies fans indigestion (a combined 4 H, 2 R and a HR in 3 IP). Still, Street owns an outstanding 56/11 K/BB ratio in 50 IP this year, with a 2.52 Win Probability Added that ranks 8th among relievers.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls picked up a save against the Dodgers on August 14th, then picked up a win in an extra-inning affair the next night. He did walk a batter in each appearance, a rarity for a guy who has dished out all of 7 unintentional walks in 48.2 frames this season. Qualls boasts a 6.0 K/BB ratio in 2009, a mark that trails only some guy named Rivera in the Bronx. Opponents are making more contact these days (his overall contact% has increased from 70.7 in 2007 to 79.6% in 2009), but it’s not like they’re doing much when the bat is put on the ball. Chad still gets groundballs by the bucketful (57.3 GB%).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

You and I pitched as often as Mr. Hoffman this week (that is to say, not at all). The Brewers have lost four straight, putting the club’s playoff hopes at a paltry 0.5 percent. An extreme fly ball pitcher in the past, Trevor has actually posted a 45.3% groundball rate in 2009. That has certainly helped his transition from the pitching mecca that is Petco Park, but still doesn’t explain how he has managed to toss 35 innings without a single long ball surrendered.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod has endured a trying month, getting touched up for 9 runs, 4 walks and 2 dingers in 7.1 IP. In the first year of a 3-year, $37.5M contract, Rodriguez has provided 0.3 Wins Above Replacement (generating $1.3M worth of value for the Mets thus far). His 85 MPH changeup still retains its bite (+4.19 runs/100 pitches thrown), but his 80 MPH curveball (-0.02 runs/100) and 93 MPH heater (-0.05 runs/100) have been decidedly average (and keep in mind, those numbers are subject to fluctuations in things like BABIP and HR/FB rate; those runs/100 figures would be even worse if K-Rod weren’t benefitting from a .255 BABIP).

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Is Soriano hurt, or is he just going through one of those rough patches that hits nearly every reliever during the course of a season? Mark Bowman of MLB.com recently reported that Rafael is suffering from “muscle discomfort behind his right shoulder“, which sends off bells and whistles for a guy with a DL history resembling a Harry Potter novel in length. August has not been kind to the pending free agent, as Soriano has served up 5 runs, 3 walks and two round-trippers in 6 IP.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson twirled 2.2 innings in an eventual 5-4 victory over the Mets on August 15th, got a 2 strikeout save against the Reds on the 18th and then notched his 30th save of the year vs. Cincy yesterday (2 K’s again). A 4.0 HR/FB% has certainly aided the flame-thrower this season, but he has made some progress in limiting the free passes (4.04 BB/9 in 2008, 3.4 BB/9 in ’09). That might lead one to believe that Wilson is pounding the zone more often, but that’s not the case. His percentage of pitches thrown within the strike zone has actually dipped from 54.3% in ’08 to 49.7% this season (49.3% MLB average). His Outside-Swing% has increased somewhat, from 17.1% to 19.6% (that’s still well below the 25% MLB average, though).

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde collected two saves this week, closing the door on the Brewers August 16th and the Marlins last night (he did make things a little too interesting, however, by allowing two hits versus Milwaukee and 2 walks against the Fish). Is the free-agent-to-be becoming more hittable? His strikeout rate (9.73) has hardly plummeted, but it is down for a fourth consecutive year. Valverde’s percentage of contact within the strike zone (79.9%), while still well below the 87.9% MLB average, is his highest mark since 2002. Papa Grande’s XFIP of 3.99 is his highest figure since 2004.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin has notched 7 saves this month for the surging Cardinals, who now have a death grip on the NL Central race (Baseball Prospectus’ Postseason Odds have the Cards with a near-90% chance of taking home the division title). The four-pitch reliever racked up three saves this past week, with 2.2 spotless innings. To his credit, Franklin is garnering swings off the plate (29.3 Outside-Swing%) and he’s getting ahead of hitters (68.3 First-Pitch Strike%). Still, a microscopic .219 BABIP, a 3.9 HR/FB% and a near-92% rate of stranding base runners suggest he has also been exceedingly fortunate.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

The 34 year-old righty tossed a scoreless inning vs. Washington on August 14th, but Cordero’s next appearance was a 3-hit, 3-run train wreck against the Giants on the 18th. The nasty outing bumped Cordero’s ERA up to 2.30, but that’s still well ahead of his middling 4.15 XFIP. His XFIP was in excess of four in 2008, as well (4.08). His K rate (7.28 per nine) is about two ticks below his career mark (9.3 K/9).

Cordero is under contact for 2010 and 2011 at $12 million a season (there’s a 2012 option for the same amount, or a $1M buyout). If a win above replacement level is worth roughly $4.5M on the free agent market, then that contract values Co-Co as a 2.6+ WAR reliever. Cordero was worth 0.8 WAR last year, and is at 0.9 this season. That’s an awful lot of money invested in a good, but hardly great reliever.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps was lashed for 5 runs in 0.2 IP between August 9th and the 13th, but he did turn in two quiet innings against Milwaukee as the Pirates swept the Brew Crew in a three-game set (he picked up a save last evening). The soon-to-be 26 year-old hasn’t been the unmitigated disaster that his ERA (6.25) would indicate, as a .377 BABIP and a home run/ fly ball rate of 13.6 have put a big dent in his stats. Still, his 4.66 XFIP isn’t all that praise-worthy. Capps’ XFIP has risen three straight seasons.

Watch Your Back

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

“Lights Out” picked up a save against Atlanta on August 14th (giving up a hit and a walk), then got his lights knocked out the next day vs. the Braves (2 H, 2 BB in a blown save). He then collected a gimme 0.1 IP save to finish the series with the club’s division rival. A balky knee has contributed to his 2009 woes and an unsustainably low home run/ fly ball rate last season portended to some regression this year, but it was difficult to see this coming. Despite all the variance in his ERA over the years (ebbing and flowing from 5.28 in ’06, 3.36 in ’07 and 1.95 in ’08), Lidge’s XFIP was actually fairly stable. This year, however, his XFIP sits at a lousy 4.91.

Carlos Marmol, Cubs

Watch out for: Kevin Gregg, John Grabow

With Gregg pouring ample amounts of gas on Chicago’s playoff chances this month (8 IP, 10 R and a stunning 5 HR allowed), the Cubs have apparently decided to give Marmol a shot at ninth-inning duties. Mr. Marmol possesses perhaps the nastiest slider in the game, a wicked 83 MPH breaker that has been worth +2.13 runs/100 pitches during the course of his major league career.

Sadly, Marmol also has about as much control as Sweet Lou during an umpiring tirade. The Dominican Republic native has never boasted great ability to paint the corners, but he has lost all semblance of the zone with 8.31 BB/9 during the 2009 season. Opposing batters have prudently swung at fewer of Marmol’s offerings: his O-Swing% has dipped from 30.1% in 2007 to 20.3% in ’09, with an overall swing% decline from 42.5% in ’07 to 37.4% this year. A .246 BABIP and absurdly low 1.8 HR/FB% have allowed him to escape many jams, but his XFIP is 5.42. He’s surely capable of much better, but it’s hard to be truly optimistic when a guy is walking nearly a batter per inning.

Matt Lindstrom/Leo Nunez, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer

The Marlins had only one save opportunity this week, which went to Nunez. Nunez, formerly of the Pirates and Royals organizations, has a 48/20 K/BB in 52.1 IP this season. With a 56.7 First-Pitch strike%, Leo hasn’t exactly gotten on top of hitters regularly (59% MLB avg). Still, Nunez has been a veritable control artist compared to Lindstrom, who has issued 5.35 BB/9 during an injury-marred 2009 season.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

On the whole, MacDougal has not pitched well at all this season (37 IP, 18/26 K/BB). At least he has avoided walking anyone over his last four appearances, a 4.1-inning stretch in which he collected two saves (vs. Cincinnati on the 14th and the 16th). The 32 year-old journeyman is getting grounders (59.8 GB%), but he’s going to have to do a far better job of getting ahead in the count if he hopes to have any kind of sustained success.

Check back Friday for the A.L. Closer Report.

Now that the trade deadline has passed for most leagues, the focus for fantasy players turns exclusively to the waiver wire for new players to add to your team. Here are five players available under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your team for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Leo Nunez (35%) – Most leagues are very effective at combing the waiver wire for saves but Nunez seems to have fallen through the cracks. He has four saves this month for the Marlins and has the added advantage of being a big strikeout guy. Nunez has a mid-90s fastball and an effective change-up, which has led to an 8.25 K/9 ratio this season.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Carlos Gonzalez (22%) – It may be crowded in the Rockies’ outfield, but Gonzalez has forced his way into regular playing time. In his last 15 games, Gonzalez has a .417-5-11-10-1 line. The lefty batter gets the larger half of any platoon role and Gonzalez’ ability to play anywhere in the outfield makes it easier to keep him in the lineup for Colorado.

Under 20 Percent Owned

Dustin Nippert (15%) – The later the season, the more important the counting categories become compared to the ratio ones. Nippert offers owners chances for both Ws and Ks. In his first 10 games for the Rangers, covering six starts, Nippert is 4-1 with a 7.75 K/9 mark. His fastball averages just under 93 mph and Pitch Type Values show his curve ball as a plus pitch.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Angel Pagan (8%) – He is not an impact player in any fantasy category but he can contribute in all of them. In 45 games, and 40 starts, Pagan has 9 SB. This month alone, he has 10 R scored. Pagan has even more value in leagues with daily transactions, as he has a .951 OPS with all 3 HR in his home ball park.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Elvis Andrus (41%) – The soon to be 21-year-old SS is one of the top prospects in the game and he has settled in as an everyday player. In his last 10 games, Andrus is batting .371-1-3-6-3. It would be nice if he was at the top of the order but the SB potential alone is enough to make him a worthwhile add down the stretch.

Alex Rios was claimed off of waivers today and will be a Chicago White Sock shortly. In our look at Scott Rolen and Nick Johnson in their new digs, we established somewhat of a precedent for trying to analyze the effect of a mid-season home park change: look at the park left behind, the new park, and the tendencies of the hitter as well as their history. So let’s take a look at Rios from an offensive standpoint, as the White Sox ponder their $60 million dollar addition.

The team has had historic problems in center field, so in some ways they can’t be blamed for coveting a player that has performed well in center field (12.8 UZR/150). But let this be about his offense, which has been inconsistent at best.

At first glance, his power shouldn’t be too effected by the move. Rogers Centre currently has a 1.152 park factor for home runs, and US Cellular a 1.164 number. However, Rogers had a sub-1.00 park factor for home runs last year, another park pointing at the instability of park factors. Over a three year period, Rogers came in at a 1.20 park factor while the Cell had a slightly more robust 1.293 park factor for home runs.

So far we’re looking at a maximum of a 5% overall power increase for Rios. Like with Rolen and Johnson before, 5% on a player averaging around 20 home runs a year is not a huge increase. Could Rios profile well for US Cellular and receive more of a power boost?

Though I still desire more detailed spray charts for hitters – and would appreciate being put in the right direction by anybody reading this piece – www.hittrackeronline.com can give us his spray charts for home runs.

Rios pulls almost all of his home runs. He’s hit 10 of his 14 this year to left field, as his home run chart shows. This continues a trend – last year he hit 14 of 15 out in left field, and the other was in left-center. 20 of his 24 in 2007 went out to left or left-center.

The Rogers Centre is 328 down the line and 375 in the left-center power alley. US Cellular is 330 down the line and 375 in left-center according to wikipedia. Perhaps it’s the wind that helps the Cell play tougher on pitchers, because the dimensions are practically the same.

The final question, it seems, is if Rios will ever bust out with some real power. A popular answer has been that he won’t because he hits too few fly balls. But his career fly ball rate (37.2%) is weighed down by his first two years in the league when he was a true worm-burner. He’s settled in around 40% now, and there are plenty of other sluggers that hit 40% of their balls in the air (Adrian Gonzalez and Lance Berkman just to name a couple).

What those other sluggers have that Rios doesn’t just happens to show up in their respective home runs per fly ball numbers. Rios (9.5% this year, 8.6% career) just doesn’t measure up to Gonzalez (17.3% career) and Berkman (19.6%). After 3071 plate appearances and a home run per fly ball rate just around the league average, I think it’s safe to say that Rios, in his average season, will display 20-home run power, no matter which of these two fields he calls home.

The Arizona Diamondbacks apparently know how to clean out their veterans in order to take a look at the future. Or maybe things just fell that way. In any case, whether by injury (Chris Snyder, Conor Jackson and Eric Byrnes), trade (Felipe Lopez), or release (Tony Clark), the Diamondbacks have opened up four positions for auditions.

We have already taken a look at Josh Whitesell and his chances of proving himself worthy of the first base job. But will these other young D-Backs have lasting power? Let’s take a look at a trio of possibly under-appreciated D-Backs.

Ryan Roberts – Roberts was a fringe option a while back, but now he’s shown a little bit of power (three home runs) and a little bit of speed (five stolen bases) without a glaringly bad batting average. Is it possible that Roberts will claim the job and keep it despite being a minor league journeyman that has suffered from a bad strikeout rate in the majors so far? In a word, yes. Mostly because of his defense (+18.5 UZR/150 at 2B) and the lack of a potential second baseman in the system (although Rusty Ryal is showing good power in AAA right now, he’s old at 26 and has an inconsistent career), Roberts looks like a strong bet to keep the job. With the fact that his strikeout rates have consistently declined in both the major leagues and minor leagues, Roberts could actually find himself starting for many NL-only leagues next year, but he won’t be the kind of player that wins or loses your league for you. There’s just not enough power or speed here.

Gerardo Parra – Parra is another player that didn’t elicit much excitement in the minor leagues, albeit without all the bouncing around that Roberts had to go through. It just was clear from his .311/.373/.436 minor league line that he didn’t have much power, and though he had 84 stolen bases in the minors, his 71% success rate and declining steals totals weren’t very exciting either. Add in the fact that it was clear from his usage in the minors that the team didn’t think he was a center fielder, and you have your typical fourth outfielder. So far his .281/.321/.427 major league line this year is borderline, and good enough for fantasy owners in deep leagues. But with Byrnes coming back with his big contract and better defense (0.2 UZR/150 for Parra, 6.2 for Byrnes), the guess here is that Parra will be a bench bat next year.

Miguel Montero – Montero is actually in a different category. He’s more of a post-hype sleeper, because he came up with nice numbers in the minors (.291/.360/.467) and the designation of Future Catcher for the DBacks. Then a funny thing happened on the way to his first 500+ plate appearances. He struck out more than he ever did in the minor leagues and just couldn’t put enough wood on the bat to keep his batting average north of .250 for very long. Guess what. He’s got his strikeout rate down to his minor league levels (around 15%), and suddenly he looks like he did in the minor leagues: a catcher that can discern pitches and whallop the right ones. Montero is a stud again, and should be owned in all keeper leagues regardless of size. Like Roberts, sometimes it just takes a little time to get back to the player you were in the minors.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Robert Manuel, Marc Rzepczynski, Aaron Poreda, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

Josh Donaldson: The Cubs originally signed Donaldson as a supplemental first round pick out of college, but he slumped a bit at the beginning of his first full pro season. Oakland pounced and had him included in the trade for Rich Harden. The organization then aggressively promoted him one level upon his arrival and he hit .330/.391/.564 in 188 at-bats. This season in double-A, the catcher’s offense has come back to earth a bit again and Donaldson, 23, has a line of .271/.398/.429 with 32 doubles and six homers in 329 at-bats. He’s also posted an outstanding walk rate of 17.3% and a respectable strikeout rate of 20.7%. He won’t be a star, but Donaldson could be an above-average offensive catcher in the Majors.

Travis Snider: After a disappointing beginning to his MLB career, the 21-year-old left-fielder was sent back down to triple-A where he missed time with an injury. Finally getting back into the swing of things after missing all of June, Snider is swinging a big bat. He has seven home runs and 17 RBI in 22 July games, including three homers and nine RBI in his last 10 games. On the down side, Snider’s average is still below .260 and he’s striking out a lot. But you have to expect those kinds of things with young players. He’s definitely a future star, but he’s going to have his ups and downs. Just be patient.

Cameron Maybin: Like Snider, Maybin’s rookie season has not gone quite as expected and he is currently riding buses in triple-A, rather than traveling in style in The Show. With that said, his performance in triple-A has been outstanding and he looks ready for another shot in the Majors, which has been oddly slow in coming. Currently, the Marlins outfield prospect is hitting .325/.413/.469 with 14 doubles in 228 at-bats. He’s also increased his walk rate, while trimming his strikeout rate significantly. Maybin’s power numbers have been down and he’s also stopped stealing bases so his value is really tied up in his average right now. Regardless, he’s making positive steps and could be up any day now.

C.J. Retherford: With Josh Fields possibly on his way out of Chicago, this former non-drafted amateur free agent (a great scouting job by the White Sox) could suddenly find himself jumping up the depth chart at third base. Retherford has done nothing but hit since signing and he’s currently hitting .294/.334/.471 with 28 doubles and eight homers in 340 at-bats. The 23-year-old does not possess a ton of power; his swing is more geared to the line drive. His walk rate has also dipped each season and is down to 6.3 BB% in 2009 at double-A. The right-handed hitter has potential, but Retherford needs to be a little more patient.

Brooks Brown: Prior to the season, the Diamondbacks sent Brown to the Tigers so the National League organization could have the rights to Rule 5 draft pick James Skelton, who was then optioned to the minors. Brown, a former supplemental first round pick, had been a disappointment to that point in his pro career. He’s still not a strikeout pitcher, and never will be, but Brown has learned how to pitch to his strengths and rely on his defense. His fastball is in the upper 80s most of the time, but he has a solid ground-ball rate of 50.4% between double-A and triple-A this season. Brown’s walk rate has taken a hit lately, but his control has seen signs of improving overall. A starter in the minors, the 24-year-old is headed to the bullpen (possibly as a swing man) in the Majors but he should still be a useful arm who could luck into a number of vulture wins.

Sam Demel: A former third-round pick out of college, Demel has risen quickly through the minors and is on the cusp of his big-league debut. The 23-year-old right-hander posted a 2.79 FIP in double-A while allowing 23 hits in 29.1 innings of work and a strikeout rate of 7.98 K/9. Promoted to triple-A, he’s allowed just eight hits (but 11 walks) in 15.1 innings. He also has 14 Ks. The two key things that Demel needs to work on are: consistency and command. He has the upside of a set-up man with a low-90s fastball that has touched 95 mph, as well as a slider and changeup.