The N.L. Closer Report: 8/20

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Big Jon is still pumping gas this month, as evidenced by his 97.6 MPH velocity and 9 K’s in 8.1 IP. However, whether the cause be fatigue or a lingering big toe injury, Broxton hasn’t been the same dominant force that scorched lineups in the 9th during the first half of the season. He blew a save vs. the Diamondbacks on the 15th, getting whipped for 2 home runs (Miguel Montero and Mark Reynolds) in a blown save. Broxton worked scoreless innings against St. Louis on the 17th and the 18th (which was a save op), but then gave up a run vs. the Red Birds yesterday in a loss.

While it could just be the product of an extremely small sample (a reliever’s seasonal line can be skewed from a bad appearance or two, much less numbers from one month), opponents have made contact with 92.7% of Broxton’s pitches thrown within the strike zone in August. That’s a marked jump from his 81.5% mark for the season.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath was manhandled against the Cardinals on August 16th, coughing up 3 runs in 0.1 frames (Colby Rasmus’ 12th-inning bomb sealed the deal for St. Louis). Bell then picked up a W vs. the Cubs on the 17th, and racked up save number 30 against Chicago on the 18th. The former Mets castoff is doing everything that one could ask from a reliever: he’s fooling plenty of batters (9.99 K/9, a career-high rate), limiting the walks well enough (2.96 BB/9) and inducing worm-burners (51.7 GB%).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street destroyed hitters in July (10.1 IP, 12/0 K/BB, 1 R), but August has not been nearly as kind (5.2 IP, 5/1 K/BB, 6 R). Huston did collect 3 saves this week, though they likely gave Rockies fans indigestion (a combined 4 H, 2 R and a HR in 3 IP). Still, Street owns an outstanding 56/11 K/BB ratio in 50 IP this year, with a 2.52 Win Probability Added that ranks 8th among relievers.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls picked up a save against the Dodgers on August 14th, then picked up a win in an extra-inning affair the next night. He did walk a batter in each appearance, a rarity for a guy who has dished out all of 7 unintentional walks in 48.2 frames this season. Qualls boasts a 6.0 K/BB ratio in 2009, a mark that trails only some guy named Rivera in the Bronx. Opponents are making more contact these days (his overall contact% has increased from 70.7 in 2007 to 79.6% in 2009), but it’s not like they’re doing much when the bat is put on the ball. Chad still gets groundballs by the bucketful (57.3 GB%).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

You and I pitched as often as Mr. Hoffman this week (that is to say, not at all). The Brewers have lost four straight, putting the club’s playoff hopes at a paltry 0.5 percent. An extreme fly ball pitcher in the past, Trevor has actually posted a 45.3% groundball rate in 2009. That has certainly helped his transition from the pitching mecca that is Petco Park, but still doesn’t explain how he has managed to toss 35 innings without a single long ball surrendered.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod has endured a trying month, getting touched up for 9 runs, 4 walks and 2 dingers in 7.1 IP. In the first year of a 3-year, $37.5M contract, Rodriguez has provided 0.3 Wins Above Replacement (generating $1.3M worth of value for the Mets thus far). His 85 MPH changeup still retains its bite (+4.19 runs/100 pitches thrown), but his 80 MPH curveball (-0.02 runs/100) and 93 MPH heater (-0.05 runs/100) have been decidedly average (and keep in mind, those numbers are subject to fluctuations in things like BABIP and HR/FB rate; those runs/100 figures would be even worse if K-Rod weren’t benefitting from a .255 BABIP).

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Is Soriano hurt, or is he just going through one of those rough patches that hits nearly every reliever during the course of a season? Mark Bowman of MLB.com recently reported that Rafael is suffering from “muscle discomfort behind his right shoulder“, which sends off bells and whistles for a guy with a DL history resembling a Harry Potter novel in length. August has not been kind to the pending free agent, as Soriano has served up 5 runs, 3 walks and two round-trippers in 6 IP.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson twirled 2.2 innings in an eventual 5-4 victory over the Mets on August 15th, got a 2 strikeout save against the Reds on the 18th and then notched his 30th save of the year vs. Cincy yesterday (2 K’s again). A 4.0 HR/FB% has certainly aided the flame-thrower this season, but he has made some progress in limiting the free passes (4.04 BB/9 in 2008, 3.4 BB/9 in ’09). That might lead one to believe that Wilson is pounding the zone more often, but that’s not the case. His percentage of pitches thrown within the strike zone has actually dipped from 54.3% in ’08 to 49.7% this season (49.3% MLB average). His Outside-Swing% has increased somewhat, from 17.1% to 19.6% (that’s still well below the 25% MLB average, though).

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde collected two saves this week, closing the door on the Brewers August 16th and the Marlins last night (he did make things a little too interesting, however, by allowing two hits versus Milwaukee and 2 walks against the Fish). Is the free-agent-to-be becoming more hittable? His strikeout rate (9.73) has hardly plummeted, but it is down for a fourth consecutive year. Valverde’s percentage of contact within the strike zone (79.9%), while still well below the 87.9% MLB average, is his highest mark since 2002. Papa Grande’s XFIP of 3.99 is his highest figure since 2004.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin has notched 7 saves this month for the surging Cardinals, who now have a death grip on the NL Central race (Baseball Prospectus’ Postseason Odds have the Cards with a near-90% chance of taking home the division title). The four-pitch reliever racked up three saves this past week, with 2.2 spotless innings. To his credit, Franklin is garnering swings off the plate (29.3 Outside-Swing%) and he’s getting ahead of hitters (68.3 First-Pitch Strike%). Still, a microscopic .219 BABIP, a 3.9 HR/FB% and a near-92% rate of stranding base runners suggest he has also been exceedingly fortunate.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

The 34 year-old righty tossed a scoreless inning vs. Washington on August 14th, but Cordero’s next appearance was a 3-hit, 3-run train wreck against the Giants on the 18th. The nasty outing bumped Cordero’s ERA up to 2.30, but that’s still well ahead of his middling 4.15 XFIP. His XFIP was in excess of four in 2008, as well (4.08). His K rate (7.28 per nine) is about two ticks below his career mark (9.3 K/9).

Cordero is under contact for 2010 and 2011 at $12 million a season (there’s a 2012 option for the same amount, or a $1M buyout). If a win above replacement level is worth roughly $4.5M on the free agent market, then that contract values Co-Co as a 2.6+ WAR reliever. Cordero was worth 0.8 WAR last year, and is at 0.9 this season. That’s an awful lot of money invested in a good, but hardly great reliever.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps was lashed for 5 runs in 0.2 IP between August 9th and the 13th, but he did turn in two quiet innings against Milwaukee as the Pirates swept the Brew Crew in a three-game set (he picked up a save last evening). The soon-to-be 26 year-old hasn’t been the unmitigated disaster that his ERA (6.25) would indicate, as a .377 BABIP and a home run/ fly ball rate of 13.6 have put a big dent in his stats. Still, his 4.66 XFIP isn’t all that praise-worthy. Capps’ XFIP has risen three straight seasons.

Watch Your Back

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

“Lights Out” picked up a save against Atlanta on August 14th (giving up a hit and a walk), then got his lights knocked out the next day vs. the Braves (2 H, 2 BB in a blown save). He then collected a gimme 0.1 IP save to finish the series with the club’s division rival. A balky knee has contributed to his 2009 woes and an unsustainably low home run/ fly ball rate last season portended to some regression this year, but it was difficult to see this coming. Despite all the variance in his ERA over the years (ebbing and flowing from 5.28 in ’06, 3.36 in ’07 and 1.95 in ’08), Lidge’s XFIP was actually fairly stable. This year, however, his XFIP sits at a lousy 4.91.

Carlos Marmol, Cubs

Watch out for: Kevin Gregg, John Grabow

With Gregg pouring ample amounts of gas on Chicago’s playoff chances this month (8 IP, 10 R and a stunning 5 HR allowed), the Cubs have apparently decided to give Marmol a shot at ninth-inning duties. Mr. Marmol possesses perhaps the nastiest slider in the game, a wicked 83 MPH breaker that has been worth +2.13 runs/100 pitches during the course of his major league career.

Sadly, Marmol also has about as much control as Sweet Lou during an umpiring tirade. The Dominican Republic native has never boasted great ability to paint the corners, but he has lost all semblance of the zone with 8.31 BB/9 during the 2009 season. Opposing batters have prudently swung at fewer of Marmol’s offerings: his O-Swing% has dipped from 30.1% in 2007 to 20.3% in ’09, with an overall swing% decline from 42.5% in ’07 to 37.4% this year. A .246 BABIP and absurdly low 1.8 HR/FB% have allowed him to escape many jams, but his XFIP is 5.42. He’s surely capable of much better, but it’s hard to be truly optimistic when a guy is walking nearly a batter per inning.

Matt Lindstrom/Leo Nunez, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer

The Marlins had only one save opportunity this week, which went to Nunez. Nunez, formerly of the Pirates and Royals organizations, has a 48/20 K/BB in 52.1 IP this season. With a 56.7 First-Pitch strike%, Leo hasn’t exactly gotten on top of hitters regularly (59% MLB avg). Still, Nunez has been a veritable control artist compared to Lindstrom, who has issued 5.35 BB/9 during an injury-marred 2009 season.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

On the whole, MacDougal has not pitched well at all this season (37 IP, 18/26 K/BB). At least he has avoided walking anyone over his last four appearances, a 4.1-inning stretch in which he collected two saves (vs. Cincinnati on the 14th and the 16th). The 32 year-old journeyman is getting grounders (59.8 GB%), but he’s going to have to do a far better job of getting ahead in the count if he hopes to have any kind of sustained success.

Check back Friday for the A.L. Closer Report.