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Florida Marlins righty Ricky Nolasco entered the 2009 season with some serious helium. The former Cubs prospect overcame an elbow injury that curtailed his 2007 campaign to post a breakout performance in 2008.

In 212.1 IP, Nolasco compiled a 3.77 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). The California native punched out 7.88 batters per nine innings, while also exhibiting razor-sharp control with 1.78 BB/9. Nolasco came equipped with a dizzying array of pitches, able to zip a solid low-90’s fastball by hitters, buckle knees with a low-80’s slider or mid-70’s curve or pull out the occasional low-80’s splitter. Ricky was worth 3.6 Wins Above Replacement, providing the cost-conscious Fish with $16M in production for a dirt-cheap salary.

As the 2009 season wraps up, Nolasco’s surface stats would lead one to believe that he has been a bust. After all, his ERA is over five (5.06), and he was demoted to the minors in late May.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

If anything, the skills over which Nolasco has the most direct control have gotten stronger. Ricky has whiffed 9.49 hitters per nine frames, sandwiching him between Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw for 7th among all starting pitchers. Nolasco remains precise, too, with 2.14 BB/9. That’s in the top 20 for starters. His FIP is down to 3.35, ranking just behind Dan Haren and in front of Ubaldo Jimenez.

Nolasco’s first-pitch strike percentage has dipped somewhat, from 63.6% in 2008 to 60.9% in 2009 (that’s still above the 58.2% MLB average). But he has induced more hacks on pitches out of the zone, with an O-Swing% increase from 28.6 in ’08 to 29.3 in ’09 (25.1% MLB average). His overall contact rate, 79.3% in 2008, is 78.2% this year (80.5% ML average). Based on his FIP, Nolasco has compiled four WAR this season, providing $18M worth of value for the Marlins.

So, why is there such a large discord between Nolasco’s ERA and his FIP? His BABIP sits at a lofty .336, third-highest among all starters. Florida’s fielders haven’t helped, ranking 22nd in team Ultimate Zone Rating. Ricky’s rate of stranding runners on base is also unusually low, at an even 61 percent (the average for starters tends to be around 70-72 percent). That’s the worst mark for a starter in the majors.

Ricky did give up a higher percentage of line drives this season (21.8%, 20.3% career average). But, it’s difficult to say with any degree of certainty whether that’s a legitimate increase or just the product of official scoring bias.

Line drives don’t just “exist”-they’re a subjective judgment by the official scorer. And, as Brian Cartwright displayed last off-season, the rate at which line drives are coded can vary dramatically by stadium. It wouldn’t seem as though opponents are getting good wood on Nolasco, given the strength of his peripherals and plate discipline numbers.

And the extremely low stand rate? Nolasco’s career rate at stranding runners on base in 67.9 percent. That’s below the aforementioned average for starters. But even if Ricky struggles a little with runners on base, his 2009 line with ducks on the pond involves some poor luck:

Nolasco with men on base:

2006: 2.27 K/BB, .355 BABIP
2008: 2.74 K/BB, .268 BABIP
2009: 2.31 K/BB, .360 BABIP

He hasn’t performed drastically different with runners on, but his BABIP in such situations has fluctuated greatly.

In all likelihood, Nolasco’s sky-high BABIP will fall, and his strand rate will return from the nether regions. Despite the lousy-looking ERA, Ricky ranked among some of the best in the business in terms of fooling batters and limiting the free passes. Don’t hesitate to draft him in 2010-there’s nothing wrong with Nolasco.

Plucked out of the University of Illinois at Chicago in the 3rd round of the 2002 draft, Tigers center fielder Curtis Granderson has surpassed all expectations.

Since reaching the big leagues for good in 2006, Granderson has blended a keen batting eye, surprising pop and fleet feet to become one of the most productive players patrolling the middle garden. The lefty batter posted 3.9 Wins Above Replacement in 2006, +7.4 in 2007, +3.8 in 2008, and +2.9 in 2009 with a few games yet to be played.

Granderson enjoyed a banner year in 2007, compiling a .395 wOBA which lead all center fielders. That performance came with a .362 BABIP and a stunning 23 triples, though, so it wouldn’t have been reasonable to expect a repeat performance the following season. Curtis was still highly productive in 2008, however. With his BABIP down to .317, Granderson posted a .374 wOBA. Only Josh Hamilton, Grady Sizemore and Carlos Beltran boasted better offensive numbers.

In 2009, though? Granderson appears to be in the midst of a disappointing campaign. Curtis batted .280/.365/.494 in ’08, but he’s down to .246/.326/.445 this year, with a .337 wOBA. What gives? What’s different in 2009?

Evidently, not much. Take a look at some of Granderson’s key offensive barometers from 2008 and 2009:

Walk rate: 11.4 BB% in ’08, 10.4 BB% in ’09
K rate: 20.1 K% in ’08, 22.8 K% in ’09
Isolated Power (SLG%-BAVG): .213 in ’08, .199 in ’09
Outside Swing% (MLB avg. is about 25%): 19.8% in ’08, 20.1% in ’09
Contact% (MLB avg. is about 81%): 79.6% in ’08, 80.1% in ’09

Granderson has walked slightly less while punching out a little more, popping a couple fewer extra base hits as well. But there’s nothing here that would portend to a 37-point dip in wOBA.

What’s the problem, then? Granderson’s BABIP, as mentioned before, was .317 in 2008. In 2009, that figure has fallen all the way to .276.

It would be easy to simply declare, “he’s been unlucky” and move on. But thanks to some outstanding work done by Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix on what factors influence BABIP for hitters, we can go beyond such a cursory statement.

For a while, most analysts attempting to find a batter’s expected BABIP would used a formula like “line drive percentage + .120.” The premise makes some sense, as line drives fall for a hit about 74 percent of the time.

However, Dutton and Bendix included many more variables in their XBABIP study. Taking items such as line drive rate, batting eye (BB/K ratio), speed score and pitches per PA into consideration, Dutton and Bendix’s XBABIP model yielded very promising results. Their study indicated a 59 percent correlation between actual and predicted BABIP, compared to just 18 percent for the “LD + .120” concept.

Luckily, Derek Carty of The Hardball Times came out with a simple XBABIP tool based on Dutton and Bendix’s work. The tool takes a hitter’s AB’s, HR’s, K’s, SB’s, LD%, flyballs, pop ups and grounders and spits out an expected BABIP.

According to the XBABIP tool, Granderson’s BABIP should be around .303. That’s somewhat lower than his 2008 figure, because Curtis has hit more flyballs (which have a lower BABIP) and he has popped out more often (pop ups are near automatic outs):

2008: 40.7 FB%, 5.0 infield/fly ball%
2009: 48.8 FB%, 12.2 infield/fly ball%

Even so, Granderson’s line would be .273/.353/.472 in 2009 if his BABIP were .303 instead of .276 (and that’s assuming all additional hits were singles). That equates to a wOBA of about .369. Not quite at his 2008 level, but pretty close. As an additional bonus, Granderson has swiped 20 bags in 26 attempts this season, after limiting his running in ’08 (12 SB, 4 CS).

Granderson’s 2009 line is misleading. He had a career year in 2007, and has settled in as a .370 wOBA-type hitter over the past two seasons. Odds are, he’ll be undervalued on draft day heading into the 2010 season. Granderson is still the same all-around threat.

The Yankees clinched a playoff berth the other night and the Cardinals’ magic number sits at 1. It’s going to be an exciting October yet again, with some really intriguing match-ups forming in both leagues.

Major pro sports leagues no longer really have offseasons, especially when it comes to coverage. We’ll be here all winter, up to our usual tricks. And if you haven’t already, check out FanGraphs’ beautiful new iPhone app. I’ve been playing around with it all morning and am simply in love. Let’s check out some other sites who are doing great work…

The fellas over at FakeTeams are beginning to look ahead to next season, starting with a breakdown of the Top 10 fantasy pitchers for 2010. The usual suspects top the list: Zack Greinke, Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia.

Still plugging away in your fantasy league this season and looking for a few spot starters? R.J. White of Fanhouse suggests looking at Bronson Arroyo, who has pieced together 11 straight quality starts, Brett Anderson, who is coming off a 10-strikeout game and Vicente Padilla, who has struggled recently but is facing Washington.

Matt Snyder, also writing for Fanhouse, provides an early preview of the 2010 group of closers. A lot can change in the offseason with free agency and trades, but it’s a nice look into the future.

Rotoworld’s Aaron Gleeman reviews Tim Hudson’s impressive return to action. The veteran right-hander is 2-1 with a 3.56 ERA in five starts since returning from Tommy John surgery and was impressive in damage control Wednesday against the Mets. As Gleeman notes, “His average fastball has clocked in at 90.1 miles per hour after living between 90.3 and 90.9 in the four seasons prior to going under the knife, his breaking-ball velocity is also similar to pre-surgery levels, and perhaps most importantly he’s maintained the extreme ground-ball tendencies that have long keyed his success.”

The Hardball Times’ Derek Carty asks an interesting question, and THT’s Eriq Gardner provides an answer: “What do you think has a greater impact on one’s ability to win a fantasy baseball league: player evaluation or strategy?” It’s something to think about as the 2009 season comes to a close.

Have a question, comment or link to share? E-mail me or find me on Twitter.

It is never too late to improve your team! Here are five players available on the waiver wire under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your squad for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Miguel Olivo (30%) – With catchers, after you pass the first few tiers basically you want someone to help you in one category or another, most often HR or AVG. Olivo falls into the former, as he has 23 HR for the season. That makes him worth picking up right there. Add in the fact that he has also swiped a couple of bags in September and that makes him a worthwhile add down the stretch.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Bud Norris (26%) – After experiencing early success in his rookie season, Norris allowed 22 runs in 16.2 innings over four starts and saw his stock drop dramatically. But in his last three outings, Norris is 2-0 with 2.12 ERA with 21 Ks in 17 IP. A fastball/slider pitcher, Norris hit 98.4 in his last start and for the year has a 94.1 average fastball.

Under 20 Percent Owned

David Murphy (17%) – In his last 18 games, Murphy is batting .333/.395/.565 with 4 HR, 10 RBIs and 17 R. He is entrenched as an everyday player, an issue earlier in the season, and is the Rangers’ primary LF now, while also getting starts in RF and DH.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Ross Detwiler (2 %) – At first glance, an 0-6 record with a 5.80 makes one wonder why anyone saves a roster spot for Detwiler. But he has a 3.80 FIP and LH starters who can hit 94 do not grow on trees. In his last outing, Detwiler allowed 1 ER in 5 IP and posted 6 Ks. He is a high risk-high reward pitcher down the stretch.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Paul Maholm (43%) – The average ERA in the National League for starting pitchers this year is 4.20 and the average WHIP is 1.378. Maholm checks in with 4.46 and 1.44 marks, respectively, making him slightly below average and worth a spot in most fantasy leagues. He has notched a Quality Start in four of his last six outings. He has neither the upside nor downside of Detwiler and is more likely to deliver a useful fantasy outing in his remaining starts.

Stock Up

Brett Anderson, Athletics

Oakland’s 21 year-old rookie was plenty good during the first half of the 2009 season, but he has ascended into elite territory since the Midsummer Classic:

1st Half: 87.1 IP, 6.6 K/9, 2.78 BB/9
2nd Half: 77.1 IP, 8.7 K/9, 2.21 BB/9

Anderson’s uptick in performance coincided with an increase in velocity:

Anderson’s fastball and slider velocity, by month:

April: 91 MPH for the fastball, 82.7 MPH for the slider
May: 91.4, 82.4
June 92.6, 83.8
July: 93.6, 85
August: 93, 84.2
September: 93.4, 84.2

Anderson’s souped-up fastball hasn’t been dominant (-0.61 runs/100 pitches for the year), but that mid-80’s slider has been deadly (+2.79 runs/100, best in the majors). What makes the pitch so wicked? It may be the unusual depth and bite on the offering. Anderson’s slider drops in the zone 3.4 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin. By comparison, the average lefty slider has +1.7 inches of vertical movement (rising 1.7 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin).

Howie Kendrick, Angels

Optioned to AAA Salt Lake in June, Kendrick has returned to the majors with a vengeance. His second-half surge (.385/.409/.594 in 149 PA) owes something to an obscene .430 BABIP, but Howie (or is it Howard?) is hammering the ball with a .209 ISO since the break. Overall, Kendrick has a .344 wOBA and a .153 ISO, both career bests. He’s still a free swinger who rarely draws a free pass (4.9 BB%), but the former top prospect has gradually tightened his zone while making more contact:

2007: 40.1 O-Swing%, 75.6 Contact%
2008: 36.6 O-Swing%, 76.2 Contact%
2009: 32.4 O-Swing%, 80.3 Contact%

(the MLB averages are 25% and 81%, respectively)

Scott Feldman, Rangers

With 5.3 K/9 and 2.85 BB/9, Feldman has been more solid rotation cog (4.59 Expected Fielding Independent ERA) than the breakout ace that his ERA (3.62) or win total (17) would suggest. However, the 26 year-old has undergone one drastic transformation over the past few seasons.

Prior to the 2008 season, Feldman was essentially a ROOGY (Right-Handed One Out Guy), a somewhat pejorative term used to describe righty relievers who get pummeled by southpaw batters. His side-arm motion generated lots of groundballs (58 GB% from 2005-2007), but his opportunities against opposite-handed batters were limited.

He switched release points and jobs in ’08, moving into the rotation. Feldman’s peripherals (4.4 K/9, 3.33 BB/9, 5.25 XFIP) weren’t all that special. In 2009, Feldman has changed his pitching approach. He tossed a fastball 63.5% of the time in ’08, but he has thrown a heater just 44.9% this season.

In place of the conventional fastball, Feldman is relying heavily upon a 90 MPH cutter (thrown 33% of the time). The pitch has been extremely effective, with a value of +2.94 runs per 100 pitches. That figure may be inflated a little by Feldman’s good fortune of balls put in play (the run values are results-based, so a low BABIP or HR/FB rate could influence the pitch values), but that cutter has helped him battle southpaws. Lefties lashed Scott for a .846 OPS in 2008 (17 percent worse than the league average), but just a .623 OPS in 2009 (38 percent better than the league average).

Felipe Lopez, Brewers

Coming off of a pair of tepid seasons at the plate (.295 wOBA in 2007, .320 in 2008), Lopez had to settle for a 1-year, $3.5M deal with the Diamondbacks over the winter. Without question, Felipe was one of the best bargains on the free agent market, accumulating 4.6 WAR between the D-Backs and the Brewers. That production is worth roughly $20-$21M.

Lopez has been fortunate, with a .364 BABIP this year. According to this expected BABIP calculator, the switch-hitter should have a BABIP around .333. That would make his .312/.382/.433 line something closer to .281/.351/.402. That still equates to a wOBA of about .345, besting his work during a nomadic stretch that saw Lopez roam through Cincinnati, Washington and St. Louis. Lopez’s walk rate this season is up to 10.1% (8.1 and 8.2% in ’07 and ’08).

Robinson Tejeda, Royals

When your club can’t see first place with the aid of the Keck Telescopes, September baseball can be a drag. But there is one perk associated with being woefully out of contention: the chance to evaluate players in expanded roles.

Case in point: Robinson Tejeda. For most of his pro career, Tejeda has thrown really, really hard (94.3 MPH in 2009) toward the general vicinity of home plate. However, the former Ranger and Phillie has shown about as much control as Dayton Moore near an expensive, low-OBP position player (5.11 BB/9 career).

So far, Tejeda has taken to the rotation better than expected. In four starts spanning 22.1 innings, Robinson has posted a 24/10 K/BB ratio, with a microscopic 0.81 ERA. The 27 year-old has, of course, been exceptionally lucky on balls in play (.170 BABIP as a starter).

But, Tejeda has retained his velocity battling lineups multiple times (94.5 MPH), while garnering plenty of outside swings (33.3%, 25% MLB average) and posting a low contact rate (73.7%, 81% MLB average). It’s just four starts, so no conclusions can really be drawn. Still, Tejeda at least gives Royals fans something to focus on while waiting for Billy Butler‘s next AB or Zack Greinke’s next start.

Stock Down

Freddy Sanchez, Giants

The Pirates received plenty of backlash from fans and the local press for trading Sanchez, a respected community member and a decent second baseman when healthy, to the Giants this past summer. That venom aimed at the organization didn’t take into account that the 31 year-old might just be breaking down physically.

Courtesy of Sportsnet, here’s Sanchez’s sizeable list of ailments since the beginning of the 2007 season:

Sep 7, 2009: Missed 19 games (left shoulder injury).
Aug 25, 2009: Left shoulder injury, 15-day DL.
Aug 18, 2009: Left shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Aug 2, 2009: Missed 5 games (sore left knee).
Jul 27, 2009: Sore left knee, day-to-day.
Jul 10, 2009: Missed 6 games (back injury).
Jul 3, 2009: Back injury, day-to-day.
Sep 13, 2008: Missed 1 game (eye injury).
Sep 12, 2008: Eye injury, day-to-day.
Aug 3, 2008: Missed 5 games (back spasms).
Jul 28, 2008: Back spasms, day-to-day.
Apr 14, 2008: Missed 1 game (right shoulder injury).
Apr 13, 2008: Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Apr 5, 2008: Missed 1 game (right shoulder injury).
Apr 4, 2008: Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Oct 1, 2007: Missed the last 5 games of the regular season (shoulder injury).
Sep 26, 2007: Shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Jun 19, 2007: Missed 3 games (flu).
Jun 15, 2007: Flu, day-to-day.
Apr 26, 2007: Missed 1 game (eye injury).
Apr 25, 2007: Eye injury, day-to-day.
Apr 18, 2007: Missed 1 game (left wrist injury).
Apr 17, 2007: Left wrist injury, day-to-day.
Apr 7, 2007: Missed 5 games (sprained knee).
Mar 31, 2007: Sprained knee, 15-day DL.

Shoulder and knee maladies have proven especially troublesome. Sanchez is largely the same aggressive, high-contact hitter with just a smidge of extra-base power. However, he has posted the highest K rate of his career (16.6 K%), and his percentage of contact within the strike zone (89.7 percent) is below the 92-96% range he hovered around from 2005-2008 (88% MLB average).

Joba Chamberlain, Yankees

Chamberlain’s first year as a full-time starter has not gone as smoothly as Yankee fans or fantasy owners would have liked, as the former Cornhusker has posted a mediocre 4.70 XFIP in 146.2 IP. The big righty, who turns 23 tomorrow, has missed a decent number of bats (7.61 K/9). However, his control has lagged behind.

Joba has posted a paltry 54.9 First-Pitch Strike%, compared to the 58% major league average. His hard mid-80’s slider (+0.98 runs/100) and high-70’s curve (+0.3 runs/100) have fooled hitters, but Chamberlain’s 92.5 MPH gas has often been torched (-1.15 runs/100).

The 6-2, 230 pounder’s struggles will likely spur more unwarranted discussion of his long-term role, but it’s important to keep in mind that Chamberlain is still very young and is surely capable of better in the rotation in the years to come. It’s extremely difficult to conjure up an argument for pushing him to the ‘pen.

Nick Markakis, Orioles

The 25 year-old Markakis remains a valuable commodity, but it’s hard not to be let down by his 2009 campaign. Over his first three seasons in the majors, Markakis made steady offensive improvement:

2006: 8.1 BB%, .346 wOBA
2007: 8.7 BB%, .366 wOBA
2008: 14.3 BB%, .389 wOBA

The lefty batter was an on-base fiend last year, swinging at just 18 percent of pitches thrown out of the strike zone. This year, Markakis has chased 23.4% of pitches off the dish. His walk rate has nearly been cut in half (7.5 BB%), with his wOBA falling back down to his rookie level (.345 wOBA). After posting ISO’s of .185 in each of 2007 and 2008, Markakis has compiled a .156 mark this year (again, right around his rookie production of .157).

Fausto Carmona, Indians

In late May, we took a gander at the apocalyptic path Carmona’s career has taken since his banner 2007 season. He pitched 215 frames, posted a sub-four FIP and generated a huge number of worm-burners (64.3 GB%) with his low-to-mid-90’s sinker.

Since that massive increase in workload (he pitched 74.2 major league innings in 2006), Carmona has been a train wreck. He walked 5.22 batters per nine innings in 2008, and has actually shown slightly worse control in 2009 (5.37 BB/9). While still a groundball pitcher, Carmona isn’t posting the same kind of extreme rates (54.2 GB% in 2009). His sinker has gone from a plus pitch to possibly the worst in the big leagues:

Carmona’s runs/100 pitches value with his sinker:

2007: +0.57
2008: -0.15
2009: -2.26

Suffice it to say, that’s a problem when Fausto still tosses a sinker nearly three-quarters of the time (73% in 2009). Carmona’s percentage of pitches in the strike zone has fallen from 51.4% in 2007 to a lousy 44.9% in 2009 (49-50% MLB average). It’s sad to say, but the 25 year-old has turned into the A.L.’s answer to Daniel Cabrera.

Milton Bradley, Cubs

Though some Chicago columnists may claim otherwise, Bradley probably isn’t responsible for global warming, the collapse of Lehman Brothers and stalled health care legislation. That being said, the 31 year-old switch-hitter’s first year in the Friendly Confines has been anything but amicable. The Cubs suspended Bradley for the rest of the 2009 season, though the MLBPA is considering filing a grievance.

If Milton has indeed played his final game this season, he ends up with a disappointing .345 wOBA that pales in comparison to his .405 mark in 2007 and .423 figure in 2008. Bradley was still extremely patient (14.4 BB%), but his pop was nowhere to be found. His ISO, .239 in ’07 and .242 in ’08, plunged to .140 with the Cubs.

Bradley didn’t hit the DL, but he missed time with groin, calf and knee problems. He continued to crush fastballs (+1.21 runs/100) and sliders (+0.85), but he was downright Pedro Cerrano-like against curveballs (-2.84 runs/100) and changeups (-0.85). He’s owed $9M in 2010 and $12M in 2011.

It is never too late to improve your team! Here are five players available on the waiver wire under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your squad for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Jason Frasor (36%) – Those hunting for saves should be thrilled to find a closer like Frasor on the waiver wire this late in the year. Yes, he blew a save last night but previously he had saves in four consecutive outings. Frasor has a good strikeout numbers with a 8.71 K/9 and his WHIP (1.03) is very good, too.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Brian Duensing (26%) – After 14 outings in relief, the Twins moved Duensing to the rotation, where he has enjoyed more success. In his six starts, Duensing is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA and a 1.139 WHIP. He also has 28 Ks in 36 IP as a starter. The lefty topped out at 93.8 mph with his fastball in his last start. Pitch Type Values show both his fastball and slider being plus pitches.

Under 20 Percent Owned

Tim Stauffer (12%) – After starting the season 1-6, Stauffer has turned things around, going 3-0 in his last four starts and losing a win when Heath Bell blew the save in the ninth inning in Stauffer’s last start. In his last four games, Stauffer has a 2.22 ERA and a 1.397 WHIP. Stauffer is not overpowering and has not piled up strikeouts, but his changeup has proven to be a very effective pitch.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Eric Young Jr. (7%) – His father’s game was based on speed and the apple does not fall far from the tree. The elder Young notched 465 SB in his 15 year career in the majors. In four minor league seasons, the son stole 46 or more bases each time, topping out with 87 steals in 2006. Junior has three SB in his last four games with the Rockies. Playing time is going to be an issue, but if/when he gets in the game, the steals will follow.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Nick Johnson (51%) – While it is true that Johnson does not have the power you would like to see from your first baseman, it is also true that he has been productive when he has been able to stay healthy. Since coming back from the DL, Johnson has a .361-1-11-9-0 line in 10 games.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

After an early-August hiccup which included 3 dingers and 4 runs in a five inning stretch from the 5th to the 15th, Broxton is back to dealing. The hardest-throwing reliever in the business (sorry, Daniel Bard) collected three saves this week. Broxton whiffed five and walked one in three innings, subduing the Padres and Diamondbacks (twice). With 13.57 K/9, Broxton is the leader in the clubhouse among relievers (tough luck again, Mr. Bard).

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell also notched three saves this week, besting Broxton’s Dodgers on Sept. 6th and then cutting the Wild Card hopeful Giants down to size on the 8th and the 9th. He punched out two, walking one and allowing one hit in three frames. Heath’s 2009 season is very similar to the 2007 campaign that really put him on the map. His K/BB in ’09 is 3.42 (3.4 in ’07), with a 2.99 Expected Fielding Independent ERA (2.84 in ’07).

Huston Street, Rockies

Nursing a right biceps injury, Street hasn’t taken the mound since Sept. 1st. He’s making progress toward a return, though Franklin Morales surely wouldn’t mind of Huston took his sweet old time.

Morales is mowing hitters down this month, with 6 K’s, two walks, two hits and five saves in 5 IP. In 26.2 innings out of the ‘pen this season, the 23 year-old southpaw has punched out 27 batters while sitting at 94 MPH with his fastball. Control, however, remains a work in progress (14 BB in relief, with a 49.5 first-pitch strike% that’s way below the 58.2 percent MLB avg).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Trevor whiffed two in a non-save appearance vs. San Francisco on Sept. 6th, but he fell victim to the blistering hitting machine that is Matt Holliday on the 8th. Holliday took Hoffman deep for a two-run shot that proved to be the difference in the game. The 41 year-old Hoffman has posted rates of 8.18 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9 in 2009, with a 3.63 XFIP that’s nearly identical to his 2008 mark (3.59).

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

During a season in which the Amazin’s have been forced to trot out lineups chock full of “you mean he’s still playing?” replacements, K-Rod’s peripherals have eroded for a 4th straight year (1.88 K/BB in 2009).

He hasn’t performed terribly, mind you, but Rodriguez has issued five free passes per nine frames. His first-pitch strike% has dipped to just 50.4% as well. Rodriguez’s hard mid-80’s changeup is still outstanding (+4.23 runs/100 pitches in ’09, +3.86 career), but his 80 MPH breaking ball is getting hit far more often than in years past (-0.14 runs/100 in ’09, +2.64 career). K-Rod picked up two saves this week against the Cubs, allowing a run and a walk in 1.2 IP.

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Slumping Soriano: Rafael has surrendered four runs, seven hits and a homer in 4.1 IP this September. The Astros were particularly unkind to the pending free agent, hammering him in back-to-back games on the 8th and the 9th. Nothing is off velocity-wise, as Soriano is sitting 94.8 MPH this month (94.6 for the season). Gonzalez notched a save yesterday, though that was probably just Bobby Cox rightly not wanting to tax Soriano’s arm for a third straight day.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson racked up a save in an extended 1.2 inning appearance against Milwaukee on Sept. 5th (1 K, 1 H), then tossed a scoreless frame against San Diego on the 9th (no save, and he gave up two hits). The 26 year-old is turning in his finest season in the big leagues, posting a 3.35 XFIP. He has lowered his XFIP every year in the majors, and his 1.67 Win Probability Added in 2009 is closing in on his career-best 1.77 in 2008.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Papa Grande aged a year this week. No, he wasn’t perturbed by poor pitching performances (he collected two saves and a W in three appearances, whiffing three in three scoreless innings). Rather, Houston GM Ed Wade clarified a paperwork error that listed Valverde as being 31 instead of 32. Still, Valverde’s got nothin’ on Miguel Tejada, who can attest to the fleeting nature of age 31 and 32.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero struck out the side vs. Atlanta while picking up a save on Sept. 6th, but Colorado crushed him for 2 hits, 2 runs and 2 walks in 0.2 inning blown save on the 9th. CoCo’s 1.83 K/BB ratio is his worst mark since 2000, as is his K rate (8.08 per nine frames). His XFIP (4.10) is over a run-and-a-half higher than his ERA (2.44). When it comes time for the 2010 draft, buyer beware.

Ryan Madson, Phillies (Brad Lidge gets the boot)

Watch Out For: Brett Myers

Enough is enough: Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel says that Lidge will work in “low stress” situations during the rest of September, which is a polite way of saying that he wants the forlorn reliever to go far, far away for a while. Lidge’s lost 2009 fell further into the abyss in September, as he walked three and allowed two runs in 3 IP. His fastball has been the worst in the majors (-3.07 runs/100 pitches), and that vaunted slider (+2.06 runs/100 career) isn’t doing much, either (-0.01).

Madson figures to get the first crack at ninth-inning opportunities. The 6-7 righty has turned in another stellar season in relief, striking out 9.05 batters per nine frames with 2.7 BB/9. Madson’s fastball velocity spiked during the second half of the 2008 season, and most assuredly, he has kept the extra heat in ’09 (95 MPH). The 29 year-old’s cheddar is giving batters problems (+0.81 runs/100 pitches), but his 84 MPH changeup has been even nastier (+2.50). Madson has induced outside swings 34.3% of the time, well above the 25% MLB avg.

We can’t totally count out the recently activated Myers, either. Hip surgery was supposed to close the book on Brett’s season, but he recovered more quickly than anticipated. Since returning on Sept. 5th, Myers has struck out three and walked two in 3.1 scoreless innings.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

After posting a microscopic ERA that defied his more modest peripherals, Franklin appears to be Earth-bound. In three September appearances, he has allowed four runs, five hits and three walks. Franklin walked only eight batters during the first four months of the season, but he issued six free passes in August, and September obviously isn’t off to a sterling beginning. Franklin’s XFIP is an ordinary 4.27, yet his ERA sits at 1.67.

Carlos Marmol, Cubs

Watch out for: Kevin Gregg, Angel Guzman

Marmol has excelled this September, picking up five saves in 5.1 IP. He has whiffed eight and walked two, surrendering two hits in the process. With arms and legs flailing all over the place, as well as sky-high strikeout and walk rates (11.1 K/9, 7.95 BB/9), Marmol is among the more enjoyable hurlers to watch. His wicked low-80’s slider is still stifling the competition (+1.3 runs/100 pitches), though not to the same extent as previous seasons (+2.20 career) due to all of those batters trotting leisurely to first base.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Watch Out For: Joel Hanrahan

As the Pirates get ensnared in all sorts of undesired history in September, Capps trudges along toward the end of his worst season in the majors. In an ’09 campaign interrupted by an elbow injury (this after shoulder problems in ’08), the Mad Capper has served up 1.71 round-trippers per nine frames. He last collected a save on Aug. 27th.

Should Capps be looking over his shoulder? Since coming to the ‘Burgh in the Nyjer Morgan/Lastings Milledge/Sean Burnett swap, Hanrahan has punched out 33 batters in 26.1 IP. The easy narrative is that Hanrahan was horrible in Washington (7.71 ERA in 32.2 IP) and a change of scenery has made him a new man (2.05 ERA with the Bucs).

However, his K/BB ratio with the Nationals was actually higher (2.5 with the Nats, 1.94 with the Pirates). The former Dodgers prospect remains the same high-octane, control-challenged reliever. He may never be a lock-down option, but he’s certainly useful. Hanrahan is not nearly as bad as his 2009 line would suggest: his BABIP is an obscene .412. Joel’s 4.21 XFIP bests Capps’ 4.44 figure. Neither is an ideal option, but keep Hanrahan in mind of you’re jonesing for saves.

Watch Your Back

Matt Lindstrom/Leo Nunez, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer

Nunez (4.26 XFIP, 7.92 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, 1.76 HR/9) seemingly hasn’t done anything to get an iron-clad grip on the closer role, but he continues to take nine-inning duties. The former Pirates prospect was lashed for 3 hits, 3 runs and two big flies against Washington on Sept. 6th (Ryan Zimmerman and Willie Harris did the damage). Nunez did, however, recover to collect scoreless saves against the Mets on the 8th and the 9th.

Juan Gutierrez, Diamondbacks (Chad Qualls done for the season with a dislocated kneecap).

So far, so good: since taking over for the injured Qualls, Gutierrez has allowed one run in 4.2 IP. During that time frame, the Venezuelan native has picked up two saves, striking out three and walking none. Overall, Gutierrez has punched out 8.42 hitters per nine innings, with 3.92 BB/9. His repertoire is expansive (a 95 MPH fastball, 84 MPH slider, 80 MPH curve and an 84 MPH changeup), though his slider (+4.33 runs/100) has been the most effective by far.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

Robert Meiklejohn MacDougal (really, that’s his name) has been touched up this September. In 4 IP over five appearances, the former Demon Deacon has coughed up four runs, four walks and seven hits. Mac’s XFIP with the Nationals is 4.62, and he has posted jus a 54.2 first-pitch strike% overall this year.

In some organizations, right-hander Jeff Niemann would be star pupil of the pitching staff. The 26 year-old did not have the most pristine bill of health in the minor leagues, dealing with intermittent shoulder problems, but he punched out over a batter per inning while displaying average control. The 4th overall selection out of Rice in the 2004 draft stands a towering 6-foot-9, with a 260+ pound frame that pumps low-90’s gas.

As a Tampa Bay Ray, however, Niemann is just another promising arm for a team boasting a veritable assembly line of premium pitching prospects. Regardless, fantasy owners will want to take note of Niemann’s more dominant performances in the second half. Take a look at his peripherals from April-June, and then July-September:

April-June: 79.2 IP, 5.08 K/9, 3.95 BB/9
July-September: 81.2 IP, 6.72 K/9, 1.65 BB/9

Since July, Niemann has boosted his K rate, while simultaneously paring his rate of free passes issued by a considerable amount. While it could be dangerous to just assume that he will continue to perform more toward the July-September spectrum than the mundane April-June stretch, there are differences in Niemann’s plate discipline numbers that could help explain his excellent run of starts.

During April of 2009, Niemann pitched tentatively. He didn’t locate many offerings within the strike zone, often getting behind in the count with low first-pitch strike percentages. In May and June, Niemann continued to fall behind the batter often. Perhaps in an attempt to compensate, Niemann lobbed more pitches over the plate after the batter got the advantage. This led to plenty of contact against him:

April: 45.9 First-Pitch Strike%, 89.6 Z-Contact%
May: 53.5 F-Strike%, 94 Z-Contact%
June: 54.8 F-Strike%, 92.9 Z-Contact%

(MLB averages are 58.2 for F-Strike% and 87.8 for Z-Contact%)

Since July, though, Niemann is forcefully taking control of the count. His first-pitch strike percentage has soared, and opposing batters aren’t touching quite as many of his pitches within the strike zone:

July: 65 F-Strike%, 88.6 Z-Contact%
August: 64.2 F-Strike%, 88.9 Z-Contact%
September: 66.1 F-Strike%, 91 Z-Contact%

So, what has changed? Niemann has not budged from his fastball-centric approach:

Pct. of fastballs thrown

April: 73%
May: 71.5%
June: 73.9%
July: 72.4%
August: 76%
September: 72.2%

He has tossed the pitch over 73% of the time in 2009, with positive results (+0.87 runs/100 pitches thrown). Niemann does not mix in very many breaking pitches, but he has increasingly relied upon his mid-70’s curveball as opposed to a slurvy low-80’s slider since July. That’s a positive change, considering the curve has been worth +0.50 runs/100 pitches thrown during his big league career, while the slider (-1.17) has been slaughtered.

Niemann appears to be a much more polished hurler than the guy chucking fastballs in the general vicinity of home plate back in the spring. He is locating his above-average heater much better, leaping ahead in the count and putting hitters in his clutches (getting ahead of the batter, obviously, pays huge dividends). Niemann has also put an ineffective slurve on the backburner, instead choosing to throw a solid mid-70’s curve with plenty of downward movement. The former Rice star went back to the drawing board, evolving into a more efficient, dominant starter.

It is never too late to improve your team! Here are five players available on the waiver wire under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your squad for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Chris B. Young (33%) – It has been a brutal season for Young, who currently finds his average beneath the Mendoza line. But he has 4 HR in nine games since his recall from Triple-A, including a 3-HR game. Power like that is usually not sitting on the waiver wire and for those hoping to move up in HR, it is a gamble worth taking that he can hit a few more the rest of the month. Young had 32 HR in 2007.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Wade Davis (24%) – By now everyone is aware of Davis’ major league debut, when he allowed just three hits and one run in seven innings and struck out nine batters. He reached 94 on the radar gun and averaged 92.2 in his first start for Tampa Bay. In parts of two seasons in Triple-A, Davis was 14-10 with 195 strikeouts in 211.2 IP.

Under 20 Percent Owned

Chris Getz (17%) – Back from a strained right oblique, Getz is batting .333 with 4 SB in seven games after being out for nearly three weeks. The average probably will not be that good for the rest of the year but Getz does bring speed to the table. If you are looking for steals down the stretch, he can be a valuable addition.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Tim Redding (3%) – In his last three games, all against teams in the playoff hunt, Redding is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA with 15 SO in 18.1 IP. He spent a good deal of time this year in the bullpen but Redding should be in the rotation for the rest of the season. He is not as glamorous as a hot rookie like Davis, but he throws strikes and has a chance to pick up a few wins down the stretch.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Alberto Callaspo (49%) – A second baseman with a good AVG and decent R totals, Callaspo is a starting quality player. Recently he has been on a hot streak with RBIs, too. In his last 15 games, Callaspo has .302-1-10-5-1 line, with eight of those RBIs coming in the past five games.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Mo is on yet another tear, having tossed 6.2 scoreless innings since he gave up a dinger on Aug. 11th (6 K, 2 BB, 2 H). Rivera’s K/BB ratio sits at 6.78, with a 3.47 Win Probability Added that places second among all relievers. The all-time great is locating far fewer pitches within the strike zone this season (44%, 49% MLB avg). However, opposing batters are going after those outside offerings frequently (34.8 O-Swing%, 25% MLB avg).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Mr. Rivera is second in WPA. Who’s the leader, you ask? That would be Papelbon. His WPA sits at 4.48, and the 28 year-old has hit the mark far more often lately (6.2 IP, 12/1 K/BB ratio since August 24th). Not surprisingly, Papelbon’s return to dominance begins with that blistering mid-90’s fastball:

Papelbon’s Runs/100 with his fastball, by month:

April: +0.64
May: +0.90
June: -0.04
July: +3.04
August: +1.02

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan has been so thoroughly dominant for such a long period of time that his pitching line from Sept. 2nd against the Pale Hose (2 H, 4 R, 2 HR) requires a spit-take. The typically iron-fisted stopper has endured a rough patch lately (11.2 IP, 12 H, 7 R 18/8 K/BB from Aug. to Sept). Nathan’s velocity held steady during that rocky month-plus of pitching, and even with a sour August and beginning of September, his XFIP (based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR/FB rate) is 3.07.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Joakim ended August poorly (0.2 IP, 3 R and a HR allowed on the 24th vs. Cleveland), but he enjoyed an extended vacation and returned with a quality two-inning appearance vs. Oakland on the 1st (4 K, though he did walk two). The two-out saves have become a common occurrence for Soria, a happy development given the Mexicutioner’s deep arsenal and background as a starter. In a 2009 season shortened by shoulder problems, Soria has punched out 11.32 per nine innings, with 2.83 BB/9. He’s getting ahead of hitters or inducing first-pitch contact often, with a first-pitch strike% of 65.9 (58.2 MLB avg).

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

A quick look at Jenks’ line would lead one to believe that he has been much worse in 2009 than in 2008. After all, his ERA is over a full tick higher (2.63 in ’08, 3.66 in ’09). However, Bobby’s K/BB ratio has spiked from 2.24 to 3.38. He’s throwing harder (95 MPH in ’09, 93.8 in ’08), and opposing hitters aren’t making as much contact against his stuff (78.4% contact rate in ’09, 84.5% in ’08). Jenks’ XFIP is 3.66, which is actually lower than his ’08 mark (3.86). The root cause of his ’09 struggles is a ballooning HR/FB rate (15.6%). Bobby’s career HR/FB rate is 9.1, and the average for a pitcher tends to hover around 11-12%. Jenks could be a bargain on draft day next year. He’s still the same guy.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Oakland’s rookie closer has not issued a free pass since July 25th, a stretch of 14 innings in which he has whiffed 10 and allowed 2 runs. Bailey’s first-pitch strike% shot up to 66.7% in August, well above his 60.1% season average. In 72 frames in ’09, Bailey has posted rates of 9.5 K/9 and 2.75 BB/9. The sub-two ERA (1.88) has something to do with a sub-.240 BABIP (.239), but he has been legitimately excellent. Be it Bailey’s searing 94 MPH fastball (+2.04 runs/100 pitches), 89 MPH cutter (+1.59) or 78 MPH curveball (+2.71), hitters just aren’t getting good hacks against his stuff.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Believe it or not, wild man Aardsma is working on a walk less streak of his own. The relief nomad has found a home in Seattle, and he hasn’t allowed a batter to take ball four in his past seven frames (8 K, 0 R). Picked up from the Red Sox for A-Ball lefty Fabian Williamson before the season, Aardsma has been worth 1.8 WAR in 2009.

In Control

J.P. Howell, Rays

J.P. gave up five H.R.’s in August, walking 9 hitters and surrendering 7 runs in 12 IP. He has begun August with 1.1 scoreless innings over two appearances. Bumpy August aside, Howell has compiled rates of 10.57 K/9 and 3.86 BB/9 on the whole, with a 3.39 XFIP. Even the best relief arms go through stretches of bad pitching; don’t jump ship based on a few flammable outings.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes ended August with four clean save ops, but September began with a 2 hit, 2 walk appearance against the M’s on the 2nd. Fuentes’ WPA is 0.84 in 2009, compared to 2.21 in 2008. His mid-70’s breaking ball hasn’t been sharp in his first year with the Angels (-0.69 runs/100), which could help to explain the uptick in his contact rate (79.1% in ’09, 73.3% career average).

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Watch out for: C.J. Wilson

Francisco has racked up three saves already this month, closing the door in both ends of a double-dip with the Blue Jays on the 1st and notching another vs. Toronto the next night. Frank has turned in a banner campaign between a trio of DL stints, with a 4.18 K/BB ratio. His mid-80’s splitter has often been smacked during the course of his career (-0.52 runs/100), but that split has been superb in 2009 (+2.92). Consequently, Francisco has relied upon the tumbling pitch more often (nearly 20% of his pitches thrown, compared to about 10% in years past).

Jason Frasor/Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Save opportunities have been few and far between for the scuffling Jays (8 losses in their past 10 games). Downs was activated from the DL on Aug. 24th, and has since chucked 3.2 scoreless frames (3 K, 2 BB). Frasor, meanwhile, was pummeled by the Bronx Bombers yesterday, with A-Rod and Posada taking him deep.

Both undersized relievers have employed similar tactics to post career-low walk rates (2.91 BB/9 for Frasor, 2.77 for Downs). Neither is pounding the strike zone (49.9 Zone% for Frasor and just 43.3% for Downs; 49% MLB average). Rather, they’re both getting more outside swings than usual (Frasor’s league-average 25.1% mark is well above his 18.9% career average, and Downs’ 34.1% figure in ’09 is leaps and bounds ahead of his 22.6% career mark).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Fernando Rodney, $10 million per year reliever? It would be incredibly difficult to justify such a lavish payday for the 32 year-old. Rodney has posted 8.3 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 in 2009, with 0.9 Wins Above Replacement (and that’s his highest WAR total dating back to 2002). If 1 WAR is worth around $4.5 million on the free agent market, then a team properly evaluating Fernando shouldn’t be offering any more than half of that purported sum. His save total (31 and counting) is shiny, but it’s hard to label him as a top-tier reliever.

Jim Johnson, Orioles

Johnson got jacked up during his last appearance: a 3 hit, 5 run disaster vs. the Yankees on Sept. 2 (he didn’t retire a batter). There’s nothing really special about the 6-5 righty, who has whiffed 6.4 batters per nine frames while walking 2.97 and posting a 51.4% GB rate. His FIP is 4.26. He’s not a bad middle reliever, but he’s appearing in the ninth because, well, someone has to.

Other potential candidates for the role haven’t stepped forward, though I wouldn’t totally discount Chris Ray just yet. Sure, his ERA (6.75) is abominable. But the underlying number’s aren’t so bad: 8.15 K/9 and 3.72 BB/9. The flyball-centric Ray does, however, have plenty of issues with the long ball (1.3 HR/9 career).

Watch Your Back

Kerry Wood, Indians

On the whole, Wood’s first season outside of the Friendly Confines has not gone especially well. The 32 year-old Texas has a 4.05 XFIP, with the opposition offering at just 19 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average; Wood’s O-Swing% in ’08 was 31.3).

Kerry is now dealing with a bout of shoulder soreness, and trade acquisition Chris Perez (a former Miami Hurricane righty who pumps mid 90’s gas with a sharp slider) is making a strong case for ninth-inning consideration in 2010. Perez (picked up from the Cardinals in the DeRosa deal) has always fooled plenty of hitters, but he has gone on an absolute tear with the Indians while displaying improved control. The 24 year-old owns a 23/5 K/BB in 20.1 IP with the Tribe.