The N.L. Closer Report: 9/11

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

After an early-August hiccup which included 3 dingers and 4 runs in a five inning stretch from the 5th to the 15th, Broxton is back to dealing. The hardest-throwing reliever in the business (sorry, Daniel Bard) collected three saves this week. Broxton whiffed five and walked one in three innings, subduing the Padres and Diamondbacks (twice). With 13.57 K/9, Broxton is the leader in the clubhouse among relievers (tough luck again, Mr. Bard).

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell also notched three saves this week, besting Broxton’s Dodgers on Sept. 6th and then cutting the Wild Card hopeful Giants down to size on the 8th and the 9th. He punched out two, walking one and allowing one hit in three frames. Heath’s 2009 season is very similar to the 2007 campaign that really put him on the map. His K/BB in ’09 is 3.42 (3.4 in ’07), with a 2.99 Expected Fielding Independent ERA (2.84 in ’07).

Huston Street, Rockies

Nursing a right biceps injury, Street hasn’t taken the mound since Sept. 1st. He’s making progress toward a return, though Franklin Morales surely wouldn’t mind of Huston took his sweet old time.

Morales is mowing hitters down this month, with 6 K’s, two walks, two hits and five saves in 5 IP. In 26.2 innings out of the ‘pen this season, the 23 year-old southpaw has punched out 27 batters while sitting at 94 MPH with his fastball. Control, however, remains a work in progress (14 BB in relief, with a 49.5 first-pitch strike% that’s way below the 58.2 percent MLB avg).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Trevor whiffed two in a non-save appearance vs. San Francisco on Sept. 6th, but he fell victim to the blistering hitting machine that is Matt Holliday on the 8th. Holliday took Hoffman deep for a two-run shot that proved to be the difference in the game. The 41 year-old Hoffman has posted rates of 8.18 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9 in 2009, with a 3.63 XFIP that’s nearly identical to his 2008 mark (3.59).

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

During a season in which the Amazin’s have been forced to trot out lineups chock full of “you mean he’s still playing?” replacements, K-Rod’s peripherals have eroded for a 4th straight year (1.88 K/BB in 2009).

He hasn’t performed terribly, mind you, but Rodriguez has issued five free passes per nine frames. His first-pitch strike% has dipped to just 50.4% as well. Rodriguez’s hard mid-80’s changeup is still outstanding (+4.23 runs/100 pitches in ’09, +3.86 career), but his 80 MPH breaking ball is getting hit far more often than in years past (-0.14 runs/100 in ’09, +2.64 career). K-Rod picked up two saves this week against the Cubs, allowing a run and a walk in 1.2 IP.

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Slumping Soriano: Rafael has surrendered four runs, seven hits and a homer in 4.1 IP this September. The Astros were particularly unkind to the pending free agent, hammering him in back-to-back games on the 8th and the 9th. Nothing is off velocity-wise, as Soriano is sitting 94.8 MPH this month (94.6 for the season). Gonzalez notched a save yesterday, though that was probably just Bobby Cox rightly not wanting to tax Soriano’s arm for a third straight day.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson racked up a save in an extended 1.2 inning appearance against Milwaukee on Sept. 5th (1 K, 1 H), then tossed a scoreless frame against San Diego on the 9th (no save, and he gave up two hits). The 26 year-old is turning in his finest season in the big leagues, posting a 3.35 XFIP. He has lowered his XFIP every year in the majors, and his 1.67 Win Probability Added in 2009 is closing in on his career-best 1.77 in 2008.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Papa Grande aged a year this week. No, he wasn’t perturbed by poor pitching performances (he collected two saves and a W in three appearances, whiffing three in three scoreless innings). Rather, Houston GM Ed Wade clarified a paperwork error that listed Valverde as being 31 instead of 32. Still, Valverde’s got nothin’ on Miguel Tejada, who can attest to the fleeting nature of age 31 and 32.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero struck out the side vs. Atlanta while picking up a save on Sept. 6th, but Colorado crushed him for 2 hits, 2 runs and 2 walks in 0.2 inning blown save on the 9th. CoCo’s 1.83 K/BB ratio is his worst mark since 2000, as is his K rate (8.08 per nine frames). His XFIP (4.10) is over a run-and-a-half higher than his ERA (2.44). When it comes time for the 2010 draft, buyer beware.

Ryan Madson, Phillies (Brad Lidge gets the boot)

Watch Out For: Brett Myers

Enough is enough: Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel says that Lidge will work in “low stress” situations during the rest of September, which is a polite way of saying that he wants the forlorn reliever to go far, far away for a while. Lidge’s lost 2009 fell further into the abyss in September, as he walked three and allowed two runs in 3 IP. His fastball has been the worst in the majors (-3.07 runs/100 pitches), and that vaunted slider (+2.06 runs/100 career) isn’t doing much, either (-0.01).

Madson figures to get the first crack at ninth-inning opportunities. The 6-7 righty has turned in another stellar season in relief, striking out 9.05 batters per nine frames with 2.7 BB/9. Madson’s fastball velocity spiked during the second half of the 2008 season, and most assuredly, he has kept the extra heat in ’09 (95 MPH). The 29 year-old’s cheddar is giving batters problems (+0.81 runs/100 pitches), but his 84 MPH changeup has been even nastier (+2.50). Madson has induced outside swings 34.3% of the time, well above the 25% MLB avg.

We can’t totally count out the recently activated Myers, either. Hip surgery was supposed to close the book on Brett’s season, but he recovered more quickly than anticipated. Since returning on Sept. 5th, Myers has struck out three and walked two in 3.1 scoreless innings.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

After posting a microscopic ERA that defied his more modest peripherals, Franklin appears to be Earth-bound. In three September appearances, he has allowed four runs, five hits and three walks. Franklin walked only eight batters during the first four months of the season, but he issued six free passes in August, and September obviously isn’t off to a sterling beginning. Franklin’s XFIP is an ordinary 4.27, yet his ERA sits at 1.67.

Carlos Marmol, Cubs

Watch out for: Kevin Gregg, Angel Guzman

Marmol has excelled this September, picking up five saves in 5.1 IP. He has whiffed eight and walked two, surrendering two hits in the process. With arms and legs flailing all over the place, as well as sky-high strikeout and walk rates (11.1 K/9, 7.95 BB/9), Marmol is among the more enjoyable hurlers to watch. His wicked low-80’s slider is still stifling the competition (+1.3 runs/100 pitches), though not to the same extent as previous seasons (+2.20 career) due to all of those batters trotting leisurely to first base.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Watch Out For: Joel Hanrahan

As the Pirates get ensnared in all sorts of undesired history in September, Capps trudges along toward the end of his worst season in the majors. In an ’09 campaign interrupted by an elbow injury (this after shoulder problems in ’08), the Mad Capper has served up 1.71 round-trippers per nine frames. He last collected a save on Aug. 27th.

Should Capps be looking over his shoulder? Since coming to the ‘Burgh in the Nyjer Morgan/Lastings Milledge/Sean Burnett swap, Hanrahan has punched out 33 batters in 26.1 IP. The easy narrative is that Hanrahan was horrible in Washington (7.71 ERA in 32.2 IP) and a change of scenery has made him a new man (2.05 ERA with the Bucs).

However, his K/BB ratio with the Nationals was actually higher (2.5 with the Nats, 1.94 with the Pirates). The former Dodgers prospect remains the same high-octane, control-challenged reliever. He may never be a lock-down option, but he’s certainly useful. Hanrahan is not nearly as bad as his 2009 line would suggest: his BABIP is an obscene .412. Joel’s 4.21 XFIP bests Capps’ 4.44 figure. Neither is an ideal option, but keep Hanrahan in mind of you’re jonesing for saves.

Watch Your Back

Matt Lindstrom/Leo Nunez, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer

Nunez (4.26 XFIP, 7.92 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, 1.76 HR/9) seemingly hasn’t done anything to get an iron-clad grip on the closer role, but he continues to take nine-inning duties. The former Pirates prospect was lashed for 3 hits, 3 runs and two big flies against Washington on Sept. 6th (Ryan Zimmerman and Willie Harris did the damage). Nunez did, however, recover to collect scoreless saves against the Mets on the 8th and the 9th.

Juan Gutierrez, Diamondbacks (Chad Qualls done for the season with a dislocated kneecap).

So far, so good: since taking over for the injured Qualls, Gutierrez has allowed one run in 4.2 IP. During that time frame, the Venezuelan native has picked up two saves, striking out three and walking none. Overall, Gutierrez has punched out 8.42 hitters per nine innings, with 3.92 BB/9. His repertoire is expansive (a 95 MPH fastball, 84 MPH slider, 80 MPH curve and an 84 MPH changeup), though his slider (+4.33 runs/100) has been the most effective by far.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

Robert Meiklejohn MacDougal (really, that’s his name) has been touched up this September. In 4 IP over five appearances, the former Demon Deacon has coughed up four runs, four walks and seven hits. Mac’s XFIP with the Nationals is 4.62, and he has posted jus a 54.2 first-pitch strike% overall this year.